The article provides an analysis of the possible stabilization of world GDP in the forecast period, including explanation by the systemic long-term falling of oil prices. Given that the world GDP is the value of all goods and services of final consumption, the GDP decline can be attributed to their cheapening. This price reduction can be caused by high rates of innovation and technological development of the world economy. The article presents argumentation that the decline in the world GDP has a longterm nature. Even recessionary development of the global economy is possible. But it is not disastrous. The world economy under the influence of innovation processes is reconstructed through information technology replenishment and through reducing production costs of goods and services for final consumption. The article shows at the model level that countries with a low GDP per capita may have even greater potential for transition to an information economy than countries with a high GDP per capita. This opens a window of opportunities for Russia to modernize the economy in accordance with the evolving trends of the global innovation process.
The article represents a short version of scenario-based forecast of development of Ukraine and the Russian-Ukrainian relations, prepared in July 2008. The forecast has not been published previously. Subsequent developments have fully confirmed the anticipated, although at the time of the forecast preparation a lot of things would seem futurological fiction on the tails of probability distributions. Assessments of the state and prospects of the Ukraine development, made in 2008, are of practical interest today.
Chaotic development of modern society, where the number of new risk factors is constantly and rapidly growing, by many scientists is estimated and predicted as a way to disaster, self-destruction. The concepts of humanity, society or social medium don’t have any scientific fundamentals, so the development vector of these forms is not clear. Perception of humanity is qualitatively changing if it is regarded as the third nature after the inanimate — astrophysics and live — biological. Intellectual nature has evolutionary arisen from biological one due to successful competition of a man with other human animal bodies. Among other organisms a human being turned out to be the most versatile and multifunctional. The same universalism is the major competitive advantage also within the intellectual nature. The article predicts the consequences of introducing the concept and phenomenon of “intellectual nature” into scientific circulation. In this direction Russia could become the world leader and efficiently develop progress in social, technical and fundamental scientific knowledge.
The article discusses the main results of 2013. It analyzes trends and forecasts of macroeconomic indicators in the medium term until 2015. The paper studies the reasons of existing situation and identifies factors contributing to the economic growth. Dynamics of the Russian economy and global economic trends are compared.
Today the population of Russia is in a situation when any, even the most effective, reforms can be implemented only on the assumption of immediate rescue of the labor potential of the country.