Russian Economy — from Defensive Strategy to Ambitious One

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.54-63

The Russian economy turned out to be at the forefront of changes occurring in the global economy. Usual paradigms of economic analysis and forecasting are no longer suitable for describing this situation. Macroeconomic indicators in the context of massive redistribution of assets provide an increasingly distor ted picture of the current and strategic advantages of countries and corporations, their economic oppor tunities and risks. The institutional approach, in par ticular the theory of mergers and acquisitions, is becoming more adequate to the present moment. A description of the conflict between Western countries and Russia in its language allows us to see both the mechanisms of transition from its “friendly” absorption in the 1990s to a “hostile” acquisition (essentially, to a raider tak eover in recent years), and new opportunities opening up for Russian economy thanks to a failed at tempt to capture it. Right now, it is impor tant not only to build a policy in order to counter sanctions, but also to formulate new ambitious strategic priorities. This will allow us to tak e advantage of new opportunities in a proper way.

References:

1. Balatskii E.V. Rossiya v epitsentre geopoliticheskoi turbulentnosti: nakoplenie global’nykh protivorechii [Russia in the Epicenter of Geopolitical Turbulence: Accumulation of Global Contradictions]. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz, 2022, vol. 15, no 4, pp. 42–59, DOI: 10.15838/esc.2022.4.82.3.

2. Doklad Stiglitsa o reforme mezhdunarodnoi valyutno-finansovoi sistemy: uroki global’nogo krizisa [The Stiglitz report Reforming the International Monetary and Financial Systems in the wake of the Global Crisis]. Doklad Komissii finansovykh ekspertov OON. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2012, 324 p.

3. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Poslednyaya mirovaya voina. SShA nachinayut i proigryvayut [The Last World War. USA Starts and Loses]. Moscow, Knizhnyi mir, 2016.

(Kollektsiya Izborskogo kluba.)

4. Yakovets Yu.V. Global’nyi tsivilizatsionnyi krizis — 2020 — start novoi istoricheskoi epokhi: Nauch. doklad. Prilozhenie. Novaya periodizatsiya istorii i budushchego tsivilizatsii, kapitalizma i sotsializma [Global Civilizational Crisis — 2020 — Beginning of a New Historical Era: Scientific Report. Appendix. New Periodization of History and the Future of Civilizations, Capitalism and Socialism]. Moscow, MISK, 2020.

5. Kotlikoff L., Berns S. Pensionnaya sistema pered burei: To, chto nuzhno znat’ kazhdomu o finansovom budushchem svoei strany [The Pension System Before the Storm: What Everyone Needs to Know About Financial Future of the Own Country]. Moscow, Al’pina biznes buks, 2005, 348 p.

6. Shirov A.A., Porfir’ev B.N., Edinak E.A., et al. Potentsial’nye vozmozhnosti rosta rossiiskoi ekonomiki: analiz i prognoz: Nauch. Doklad [Potential for Growth of the Russian Economy: Analysis and Forecast. Scientific Repor t]. Moscow, Artik Print, 2022, 296 p. (Nauchnyi doklad INP RAN), DOI: 10.47711/sr2-2022.

Coronavirus Superstrategy: Global Projection of the “Just-in-time Catastrophe’s” Financial Model for Overcoming the Crisis and Entering into a New Geo-Economic Normality

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.6-19

The world is changing rapidly and irreversibly. The critical value of accumulated macroeconomic imbalances requires radical managerial decisions. As a solution to the problem, catastrophe just-in-time was chosen — preparation and implementation of key extreme events aimed at fundamentally reformatting the global economic management structure with achieving a new global investment and financial cycle based on massive issue of US dollars. The classical model of transforming global crises into the format of phased global financial iterations has now been augmented with a new strategic tool — the coronavirus. The result of implementing the coronavirus superstrategy, which was similar in power to the third world war and successfully replaced it, is the shift in key macroeconomic determinants. The USA once again postponed financial collapse for 10–15 years. Dimension of the financial special operation is unprecedented in terms of resources, territorial scales and depth of impact: former key players voluntarily sacrifice their identity for the opportunity to remain on the Great Chessboard at least in the form of pawns. The other countries’ claims to world leadership have been completely removed. For Russia, unlike most countries — geo-economic competitors, coronavirus reality became a marker confirming the Great Power status. Elaboration of a strategy for the economic development of Russia in relation to new conditions is on the agenda

Prospects for Forming New Global Value Added Chains on the Basis of Cooperation Between Scientific-Industrial Complexes of Russia and Belarus

#1. Event Horison
Prospects for Forming New Global Value Added Chains on the Basis of Cooperation Between Scientific-Industrial Complexes of Russia and Belarus

Global Value Chains (GVCs) are currently the main theoretical concept for analyzing globalization processes in the sphere of industrial production and the object for perfecting the foreign economic policy of each country. Traditions and schools of studying GVCs, that have developed in the world community, can be divided into macrostructural, united under the general title of “internationalism”, and cluster ones, that are forming the “industrialism” trend. Referring to the problem of Russian-Belarusian industrial cooperation in the course of neoindustrialization and formation of new GVCs, macrostructural approach turns out to be completely unproductive for a number of reasons, therefore the authors of the article, considering the programs of Russian-Belarusian cooperation, follow the cluster approach.

Bretton Woods

#3. Attraction of Diversity
Bretton Woods

A lot has been written about the United Nations International Monetary and Financial Conference in Bretton Woods. Let us dwell on a less well-known story. The author describes the events connected with the Soviet delegation’s participation in this conference, and about the circumstances of taking a decision on the USSR’s participation (or rather, non-participation) in the work of the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development created at the conference.

Creating Trans-Pacific Partnership: American Version of CMEA as a Tool for Balancing Global Financial Disproportions

#8. Logic and ethic of fake
Creating Trans-Pacific Partnership: American Version of CMEA as a Tool for Balancing Global Financial Disproportions

Balancing on the brink of financial disaster of the USA and the entire world economy, whose positive trend was previously supported by financial pyramid, created by the US Federal Reserve System, could not last forever. Exhaustion of the US regulatory capabilities within the previous management contour has necessitated transition to post-American model of balancing global financial disproportions. The way out was found applying the Soviet experience: the USA passed on to creating the world’s Gosplan with organizational framework of Americanized CMEA based on the set of trade agreements: Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trade in Services Agreement (TISA).

New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future

#6-7. 100 Years of War: The Point of Beginning
New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future

A new world war for developed countries is a versatile tool solving the problems of the current global financial and economic crisis in the world economy. Under these conditions, the world’s actors, especially the United States, extremely need permanent “enemy-ally”, whose role before was traditionally played by the Russian Empire, later on — the USSR. This explains the feverish attempts by all means to draw Russia into a military conflict in the Ukraine.