The "Economic Strategies" journal

2023 #5. 2023. Broken Destinies




Beyond Geopolitical Uncertainty. Issues of Strategic Planning and Structural Policy

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.64-71

Current literature propagates the firmly established opinion that sanctions impact will cause a partial degradation of produced and human capital. These losses can be compensated through the structural policy measures and formation of growth drivers.

Since the literature doesn’t provide a single definition of a growth driver, the author puts forward his own version. To implement a successful structural policy, it is necessary to correct the existing mechanism of strategic management, mainly in the field of state programs and national projects management. The development areas of mechanical engineering, IT industry and tourism are considered as growth drivers, since the mentioned areas have the greatest multiplier effect. The author concludes that tourism is the most promising area.

References:

1. Gimpel’son V.E. Chelovecheskii kapital v epokhu sanktsii i kontrsanktsii: nekotorye posledstviya ego pereraspredeleniya [Hum an Capital in the Eraof Sanctions and Counter-sanctions: Some Consequences of its Redistribution]. Zhurnal Novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii, 2022, no 3(55), pp. 234–238.

2. Prokop’ev A.V. Dolgosrochnye tendentsii ekonomicheskogo rosta v Rossii [Long-term Trends in Economic Growth in Russia]. CYBERLENINKA, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/dolgosrochnye-tendentsii-ekonomicheskogo-rosta-v-rossii

3. Uroven’ zhizni rossiyan padaet uzhe bolee 10 let [The Standard of Living of Russians has been Falling for More than 10 years]. Dzen, 2022, 18 noyabrya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/Y3cwaLfI3z1z_b65

4. Glava AKRA otsenil sroki vozvrata ekonomiki k dopandemiinomu urovnyu [The Head of ACRA Assessed the Time Frame for the Economy to Return to Pre-pandemic Levels]. RBK, 2022, 16 dekabrya, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/16/12/2022/639b3ac49a7947630774148c

5. Rinat Tairov. Bloomberg uznal o prognoze “glubokoi retsessii” v Rossii v zakrytom otchete dlya kabmina [Bloomberg Learned about the Forecast of a “Deep Recession” in Russia in a Closed Report for the Cabinet of Ministers]. Forbes, 2022, 5 sentyabrya, available at: https://www.forbes.ru/finansy/476263-

bloomberg-uznal-o-prognoze-glubokoj-recessii-v-rossii-v-zakrytom-otcete-dla-kabmina

6. Simachev Yu., Akindinova N., Yakovlev A., et al. Strukturnye izmeneniya v rossiiskoi ekonomike i strukturnaya politika: Analiticheskii doklad [Structural Changes in the Russian Economy and Structural Policy: Analytical Repor t]. Moscow, NIU VShE, 2018, p. 29.

7. Devid Dias. Osnovnye dvizhushchie sily ekonomicheskogo rosta [What are the Main Drivers of Economic Growth]. University of Sunderland, 2022, 2 noyabrya, available at: https://online.sunderland.ac.uk/the-main-drivers-of-economic-growth

8. Ivanova L.N., Terskaya G.A. Tochki rosta i draivery rosta: k voprosu o soderzhanii ponyatii [Growth Points and Growth Drivers: on the Issue of the Content of Concepts]. Zhurnal institutsional’nykh issledovanii, 2015, vol. 7, no 2, p. 124.

Organizing Strategic Management of Scientific and Technological Development

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.72-77

In the context of growing technological gap between the Russian Federation and developed countries, restrictions on developing scientific research and innovation due to narrowing scientific cooperation opportunities, reduced access to world scientifictechnical achievements and scientific equipment, as well as low demand from public and business sectors of the economy for scientific, scientific-technical and innovative products, the role of strategic management in the sphere of scientific-technological development, aimed at increasing the role of science in reproductive processes, ensuring the optimal choice of priority areas in science, technology and engineering, concentration of existing scientific, technical and innovative potential for their implementation in a short term, is significantly increasing. The present article analyzes the current system of state strategic management of scientific-technological development, gives recommendations for its improvement with a focus on the final result of scientific, scientific-technical and innovative activities by ensuring the integrity and continuity of innovative processes.

References:

1. Nauka. Tekhnologii. Innovatsii: 2023: Kratkii statisticheskii sbornik [Science. Technologies. Innovations: 2023: Brief Statistical Compendium]. Moscow, NIU VShE, 2023, 102 p.

2. Mindeli L.E., Ostapyuk S.F., Fetisov V.P. Gosudarstvennoe upravlenie nauchno-tekhnicheskoi deyatel’nost’yu v Rossii: sostoyanie i perspektivy [State Management of Scientific and Technical Activities in Russia: Current State and Prospects]. Moscow, Institut problem razvitiya nauki RAN, 2018, 108 p.

3. Ostapyuk S.F., Fetisov V.P. O sovershenstvovanii modeli strategicheskogo upravleniya v sfere nauki i tekhnologii [On Improving the Strategic Management Model in the Field of Science and Technology]. Mikroekonomika, 2022, no 6, pp. 5–18.

4. Chereshnev V.A., Todosiichuk A.V. Nauka v Rossii: sostoyanie, problemy, perspektivy razvitiya [Science in Russia: State, Problems, Development Prospects]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2022, vol. 92, no 3, pp. 201–212.

5. Todosiichuk A.V. Usloviya i faktory nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo i innovatsionnogo razvitiya ekonomiki [Conditions and Factors of Scientific, Technological and

Innovative Development of the Economy]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2023, vol. 93, no 3, pp. 237–245.

6. Indikatory nauki: 2022: Statisticheskii sbornik [Science Indicators: 2022: Statistical Compendium]. Moscow, NIU VShE, 2022, 400 p.

7. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii. 2022 god [Socio-economic Situation in Russia. 2022]. Moscow, Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, 2022, no 12, 340 p.

8. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii. 2023 god [Socio-economic Situation in Russia. 2023]. Moscow, Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, 2023, no 5, 287 p.

9. Todosiichuk A.V. Upravlenie naukoi v nestatsionarnoi ekonomike [Management of Science in a Non-stationary Economy]. Naukovedcheskie issledovaniya, 2022, no 3, pp. 71–85.

Japan 2040: Dialectics of Transhumanism and Society of the Future

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.78-93

Analysis of the essence, content and forms of the scenario state of Japan in 2040, reflected in the 11th Scientific and Technical Forecast of NISTEP in 2019, revealed a number of conceptual dialectical contradictions. They narrow down to the question of admissibility and expediency of changing a man’s nature in order to ensure his prosperous, safe, meaningful and happy existence. The author proposes for discussion a conclusion on inevitability of the transhumanization of a mankind on the scale of a single country (Japan) and the whole world, given the nature of the great challenges facing it. The possibility of keeping the historical development in a conditionally humanistic direction is noted, given the emphasis of social reforms in Japan, reflected in the 6th Basic Plan for scientific, technical and innovative development of the country, on building a society for the fullest realization and use of human intellectual potential.

References:

1. The 10th Science and Technology Foresight Scenario Planning from the Viewpoint of Globalization. Summary Report. Science and Technology Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). September, 2015, available at: https://nistep.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/4491

2. Report on the 5th Science and Technology Basic Plan. Council on Science, Technology and Innovation. Cabinet office, Government of Japan, 2015, December 18, available at: https://www8.cao.go.jp/cstp/kihonkeikaku/5basicplan_en.pdf

3. Toward Realization of the New Economy and Society — Reform of the Economy and Society by Deepening of the “Society 5.0” — Outline. Keidanren (Japan Business Federation), 2016, April 19, available at: https://www.keidanren.or.jp/en/policy/2016/029_outline.pdf

4. Mamed’yarov Z.A. Doroga k “Obshchestvu 5.0” [The Road to Society 5.0]. Ekspert, 2018, no 44, available at: https://expert.ru/expert/2018/44/dorogak-

obschestvu-5_0/?ysclid=llm6l4drah852037971

5. Uemura N.M. “Obshchestvo 5.0” — vzglyad Mitsubishi Electric [Society 5.0: the View of Mitsubishi Electric]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2017, no 4, pp.

122–131, available at: https://www.inesnet.ru/wp-content/mag_archive/2017_04/es2017-04-122-131_Uemura_Noritsugu.pdf

6. Mitsubishi Electric predstavila platformu e-F@ctory rossiiskim kompaniyam [Mitsubishi Electric Presented the e-F@ctory Platform to Russian Companies]. OOO “Mitsubisi Elektrik (RUS)”, 2017, 20 iyulya, available at: https://ru.mitsubishielectric.com/ru/news/releases/local/2017/0720-a/pdf/170720-a_local_ru_ru.pdf

7. Overview of Japan’s Green Transformation (GX). GR Japan, 2023, January, available at: https://grjapan.com/sites/default/files/content/articles/files/

8. Green Transformation (GX). Main points. Tentative translation. Keidanren, 2022, May 17, available at: https://www.keidanren.or.jp/en/policy/2022/043_point.pdf

9. Kostyukova K.S. “Zelenaya” transformatsiya Yaponii i nekotorye kontury novoi energeticheskoi politiki strany [Elektronnyi resurs]. π-Economy, 2022, vol. 15, no 6, pp. 54–70, DOI: https://doi.org/10.18721/JE.15604

Architectural Engineering of Hybrid Models Incorporating Digital Twins and Machine Learning

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.94-99

In modern engineering of complex technical systems [1] digital twins and artificial intelligence systems started to be applied, while these subsystems have their own methods and tools for systemic, mathematical and computer modeling. Lack of a normalized approach to combining data from disparate sub-systems into a single system results in a “one-off” assembly methodology or in creation of unique digital models and intelligent systems, which impedes their further transformation into more complex both technical and intelligent systems. In this regard, the search for a standard form of representing such subsystems into a single system becomes relevant, along with the task of developing a methodology for the unified design and production of intelligent systems based on the use of model-oriented system engineering [2, 3, 4]. The work names and systematizes methods and techniques for such developments, demonstrates a standard approach to a normalized platform representation of models of various subsystems, which initially have their own methods and presentation tools; results of a normalized policy for constructing a platform of models from various subsystems for an anthropomorphic robot and spacecraft are described. Within the framework of the presented example, complementary methods of digital multiphysics modeling, digital twins and machine learning are positioned.

References:

1. Romanov A.A. Prikladnoi sistemnyi inzhiniring [Applied Systems Engineering]. Moscow, FIZMATLIT, 2015.

2. Kondrat’ev V.V. Model’no-orientirovannyi sistemnyi inzhiniring 2.0 [Model-Based Systems Engineering 2.0]. Moscow, MFTI, 2021.

3. Garichev S.N., Gorbachev R.A., Davydenko E.V., Dzhaparov B.A., Kondrat’ev V.V. Model’no-orientirovannyi inzhiniring fiziko-tekhnicheskikh, informatsionnykh i intellektual’nykh system [Model-based Engineering of Physical, Technical, Information and Intelligent Systems]. Trudy MFTI, 2022, vol.

14, no 2.

4. Aleshchenko A.S., Klishev O.P., Kondrat’ev V.V., Rasskazov A.A. Sovmeshchenie arkhitekturnykh i matematicheskikh modelei v sistemnom inzhiniringe tekhnicheskikh system [Combination of Architectural and Mathematical Models in System Engineering of Technical Systems]. Kosmonavtika i raketostroenie, 2021, no 5.

5. Potyupkin A.Yu., Chechkin A.V. Iskusstvennyi intellekt. Na baze informatsionno-sistemnoi izbytochnosti [Artificial Intelligence. Based on InformationSystem Redundancy]. Mosc ow, Kurs, 2022.

6. GOST R 57700-37–2021. Komp’yuternye modeli i modelirovanie. Tsifrovye dvoiniki izdeliya. Obshchie polozheniya [GOST R 57700-37–2021. Computer

models and simulation. Digital twins of products. General provisions]. Kodeks. URL: https://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200180928

7. Borovkov A.I., Burdakov S.F., Klyavin O.I., et al. Komp’yuternyi inzhiniring [Computer Engineering]. Ucheb. posobie. Saint Petersburg, Izd-vo Politekhn.

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8. Peredovye proizvodstvennye tekhnologii: vozmozhnosti dlya Rossii. Ekspertno-analiticheskii doklad: Monografiya [Advanced Manufacturing Technologies: Opportunities for Russia. Expert Analytical Report: Monograph]. Pod red. A.I. Borovkova. Saint Petersburg, Politekh-Press, 2020.

Cognitive Collective Convergent Engineering. Part I

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.100-109

The article presents an analysis of the fundamental problems of civilizational transit with digital transformation of Industry 4.0 and forms the requirements for methodology and technologies for reassembling transdisciplinary engineering knowledge. The authors propose alternative solutions and counterintuitive approaches to transform reindustrialization based on innovative technologies of cognitive collective convergent engineering – C3 engineering, graph-centric platforms of digital genesis, tools, models and systems of collective intellectual work. The new global trend, proposed by Russia, represents the closing technologies of C3 engineering, which have a colossal socio-political resource of ensuring national sovereignty and leadership with the potential for global technological accession.

References:

1. Kutin V.N. Poema “Dary Tvortsa (Cidempotentnyi monoid)” [Poem “Gifts of the Creator (Сommutative Idempotent Monoid)”]. 2023.

2. Kutin V.N., Khokhlova M.N. Epik feil tsifrovoi transformatsii BigTekha. Gde klyuch k level ap? [Epic Fail of BigTech Digital Transformation. Where is the Key to Level Up?]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 4, pp. 46–55, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.46-55

3. Kutin V.N., Khokhlova M.N. Kak aitishniki “obuvayut” promyshlennikov. A u vas kakaya kollektsiya PPO [How IT Specialists “Shoe” Industrialists. What Kind of Software Collection do you have?]. GiperGrafGrupp, 2022, available at: ht tps://www.gipergraf.ru/kak-ajtishniki-obuvayut-promyshlenniko

4. Ma Khuaten. Tsifrovaya transformatsiya Kitaya. Opyt preobrazovaniya infrastruktury natsional’noi ekonomiki [Digital Transformation of China. Experience in Transforming the Infrastructure of the National Economy]. Moscow, Intellektual’naya literatura, 2019.

Regional Strategy Development Based on the Principles of Sustainable Development by the Example of the Kamchatka Territory

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.192.2023.110-119

The purpose of the study is to substantiate scientifically and to illustrate the application of methodology for assessing and planning sustainable regional development using the example of the Kamchatka Territory. The author analyzes the experience of regional development strategic planning over the past 10 years, assesses the current socio-economic situation of the Kamchatka Territory, as well as key industries, social sphere and regional infrastructure. The study draws attention to environmental risks and proposes methodological approaches to assessing the prospects for sustainable development, based on analysis of the dynamics of the general well-being and financial stability of the region. Social and economic factors influencing sustainable development are considered, and also practical recommendations for developing strategies of sustainable development of the region are presented. The study may be useful for practitioners and researchers in the field of regional development, helping to improve strategic planning in the Kamchatka Territory and similar regions.

References:

1. Bobylev S.N. Ustoichivoe razvitie: paradigma dlya budushchego [Sustainable Development: a Paradigm for the Future]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2017, vol. 61, no 3, pp. 107–113.

2. Makovetskii M.Yu. Razvitie podkhodov k interpretatsii kontseptsii ustoichivogo razvitiya [Development of Approaches to the Interpretation of the Concept of Sustainable Development]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta im. S.Yu. Vitte. Seriya 1: Ekonomika i upravlenie, 2022, no 2(41), pp. 81–88.

3. Tratsevskaya L.F., Lebedeva E.N. Sovremennaya paradigma ustoichivogo razvitiya: formirovanie i sushchnost’ [The Modern Paradigm of Sustainable Development: Formation and Essence]. Pravo. Ekonomika. Psikhologiya, 2019, no 1, pp. 44–48.

4. Alferova T.V. Stanovlenie kontseptsii ustoichivogo razvitiya: regional’nyi aspect [Formation of the Concept of Sustainable Development: Regional Aspect]. Vestnik Permskogo natsional’nogo issledovatel’skogo politekhnicheskogo universiteta. sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie nauki, 2021, no 1, pp. 252–263.

5. Dokholyan S.V., Petrosyants V.Z., Sadykova A.M. Ustoichivoe razvitie regional’nykh ekonomicheskikh sistem: teoreticheskii aspect [Sustainable Development of Regional Economic Systems: Theoretical Aspect]. Regional’nye problemy preobrazovaniya ekonomiki, 2013, no 2(36), pp. 60–71.

6. Chiliev B.M. Ustoichivoe razvitie regionov Rossii: ot strategii k taktike [Sustainable Development of Russian Regions: from Strategy to Tactics]. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost’, 2023, vol. 6, no 2, pp. 717–728.

7. Smeshko O.G. Ustoichivoe razvitie: regional’nyi aspekt global’noi povestki [Sustainable Development: the Regional Dimension of the Global Agenda]. Ekonomika i upravlenie, 2020, no 26(2), pp. 118–127.

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Rating does not Detract from the Company’s Business Reputation

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.120-125

The article examines legal features and consequences of compiling a rating of companies. The situation may arise when a company, included in the rating, is dissatisfied with its position. The business entity believes that it was ranked lower than its competitor, which understates the professional results achieved by the company. In this case, the company may initiate legal proceedings declaring that information in the rating is untrue and discredits its business reputation. The author argues that ratings are an expression of subjective opinion of their compilers and must not impair business reputation.

References:

1. Lopatnikov L.I. Ekonomiko-matematicheskii slovar’: slovar’ sovremennoi ekonomicheskoi nauki [Economic-mathematical Dictionary: Dictionary of Modern Economic Science]. Moscow, Delo, 2003, 488 p.

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3. Postanovlenie Devyatogo arbitrazhnogo apellyatsionnogo suda ot 14 sentyabrya 2011 g. po delu N A40-37334/11-27-323 [Resolution of the Ninth Arbitration Court of Appeal dated September 14, 2011 in case No. A40-37334/11-27-323]. Access from the Consultant Plus ATP.

4. Grazhdanskii kodeks Rossiiskoi Federatsii (chast’ pervaya) ot 30 noyabrya 1994 g. N 51-FZ [Civil Code of the Russian Federation (Part One) No. 51-FZ of November 30, 1994]. Sobranie zakonodatel’stva RF, 1994, no 32.

5. Opredelenie Vysshego arbitrazhnogo suda RF ot 15 dekabrya 2008 g. N 16321/08 [Determination of the Supreme Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation dated December 15, 2008 No. 16321/08]. Access from the Consultant Plus ATP.

6. Postanovlenie Evropeiskogo suda po pravam cheloveka ot 8 iyulya 1986 g. po delu “Lingens protiv Avstrii” (zhaloba N 9815/82) [Judgment of the European Court of Human Rights of 8 July 1986 in the case of Lingens v. Austria (application no. 9815/82)]. Access from the Consultant Plus ATP.

7. Postanovlenie Evropeiskogo suda po pravam cheloveka ot 21 iyulya 2005 g. po delu “Grinberg protiv Rossiiskoi Federatsii” (zhaloba N 23472/03) [Judgment of the European Court of Human Rights of July 21, 2005 in the case “Grinberg v. Russian Federation” (complaint No. 23472/03)]. Access from the Consultant Plus ATP.

8. Obzor praktiki rassmotreniya sudami del po sporam o zashchite chesti, dostoinstva i delovoi reputatsii (utv. Prezidiumom Verkhovnogo suda RF 16 marta 2016 g.) [Review of the Practice of Courts Considering Cases on Disputes Regarding the Protection of Honor, Dignity and Business reputation (approved by the Presidium of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation on March 16, 2016)]. Byulleten’ Verkhovnogo suda RF, 2016, no 10.

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Some Aspects of Compiling Ratings and Assessing their Quality

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.126-131

In the modern world, ratings have become an instrumental component that provides analysis, forecast and support for management decisions at both the macro, micro and meso-levels. The increasing intensity of flows and volumes of information, its multidimensional nature, the variety of formats for its presentation and communication for transmission in the context of increasing complexity of economic and social phenomena and processes, have created a powerful demand for ratings in business, in the financial and investment sphere and in strategic management, as well as at the state level. This is explained by the fact that ratings are independent, impartial, methodologically sound and allow, based on a wide range of metrics, to assess the competitiveness of countries, regions, industries and companies. Taking into account the ratings, subsequent investment decisions of the key economic players are formed.

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Intelligence: Assessment by World Rankings]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 2(182), pp. 20–31, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.20-31

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Network Planning as a Method for Optimizing Changeover Processes

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.132-137

Production losses during changeover are most significant and critical for continuous cycle production. The present article discusses the issues of optimizing technological processes by the example of changing the product range on one continuous production line. An option is proposed for optimizing the time cycle of the operations technological map using network planning methods. The effectiveness of optimization is shown — both of a separate changeover process on a site, and of the entire complex of work on changing the assortment. The process of optimizing the time-consuming on changing assortments is a precursor to introducing lean manufacturing techniques, but does not contradict their parallel implementation. Without incurring financial costs, optimization of technological maps with the help of network planning methods has a significant advantage for implementation.

References:

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