Poverty and the “Free Rider Problem” in Russian Society. Interrelationship and Solutions

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.36-38

Two shortcomings of our economy — poverty and the “free rider problem” — have the same origin — an exorbitant tax burden on wages. Mathematical modeling of the transition process from modern to transactional taxation, carried out by a group of Russian scientists, has shown that due to this transition, the country’s economy will begin to grow at a rate of 6–7% per year. And most importantly, the very concept of misery will disappear in the country and poverty will be reduced significantly.


1. Eksperty predlozhili reshenie “problemy bezbiletnika” [Experts have Proposed a Solution to the “Free Rider Problem”]. RBK, 2022, 9 dekabrya, available at:


2. Neravenstvo i bednost’ [Inequality and Poverty]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/13723.

3. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskii byulleten’. 2021 [Socio-economic Bulletin. 2021]. Pod red. A.V. Shcherbakova; Tsentr sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo prognozirovaniya

im. D.I. Mendeleeva, Sretenskii klub im. S.P. Kurdyumova. Moscow, Grifon, 2022.

4. Shcherbakov A.V., Rumyantsev V.Yu., Oleskin A.V. Setevaya ekonomika [Network Economy]. Pod red. A.V. Shcherbakova; Tsentr sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo

prognozirovaniya im. D.I. Mendeleeva, Sretenskii klub im. S.P. Kurdyumova. Moscow, Grifon, 2020.

5. Shcherbakov A.V., Malkov S.Yu. Mobilizatsionnaya ekonomika Rossii [Mobilization Economy of Russia]. Moscow, Grifon, 2022.

6. Smit A. Issledovanie o prirode i prichinakh bogatstva narodov [Survey on the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations]. Kn. 1–3. Moscow, Azbuka, 2019.

Changing Technological Development: Approaches, Methods, Problems and Prospects

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.26-35

Technological changes form the basis of modern economic development, however, in order to study their influence and features, as well as to develop control actions, it is necessary to adequately measure the level of technological effectiveness of the economy. The purpose of the study is to identify the limitations of existing approaches and methods for measuring technological development, indicating what prospects there are in terms of their improvement or the development of new ways to assess the level of manufacturability and emerging technologies. The methodology is based on the economic theory of technological development, statistical approaches to measuring the level of technological effectiveness of the economy, performance assessment, and comparative analysis is applied. The result is reduced to a reasonable position that the existing methods for measuring the level of manufacturability essentially do not reveal the true content of this concept, do not reflect the manufacturability of the economy. Thus, it is required to revise and introduce new accounting, measurement and statistical procedures covering the issues of technological development. The measuring apparatus for technological modes, the “knowledge economy” also requires perfection, which is proposed in this study.

By modes, it is important to measure the distribution of policy instruments and the structure of technologies in each mode, for which accounting for specific types of technologies and the construction of technological maps can be used. The “knowledge economy”, which symbolizes a high level of technological development, needs to be measured in its purest form by the volume of sectors responsible for the creation, transfer, replication and application of advanced knowledge. Evaluation of productive jobs needs to be revised — from measuring wages in the workplace, as it is today, to measuring the level of its automation and intellectualization.


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6. Antonelli C., Gehringer А. Technological change, rent and income inequalities: A Schumpeterian approach. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2017, vol. 115, pp. 85–98.

Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.


[1–15] see No. 6 (186)/2022, p. 25.

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19. Alzheev A.V., Kochkarov R.A. Sravnitel’nyi analiz prognoznykh modelei ARIMA i LSTM na primere aktsii rossiiskikh kompanii [Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and LSTM Forecasting Models on the Example of Russian Companies’ Stocks]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2020, no 24(1), pp. 14–23,
DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-14-23.

20. Mhitaryan S.V., Danchenok L.A. Prognozirovanie prodazh s pomoshch’yu adaptivnyh statisticheskih metodov [Sales Forecasting with the Help of Adaptive Statistical Methods]. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya, 2014, no 9-4, pp. 818–822.

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Results of the Development of the Mobilization Economy of Russia in January — September 2022: the Struggle for State Sovereignty

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.30-35

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for nine months of 2020 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.


1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — sentyabre 2022 goda [Socio-economic Situation in Russia in January — September 2022]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-09-2022.pdf.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Yanvar’ — mai 2022 goda: Rossiya v usloviyakh tormozheniya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [2022, January — May: Russia in the Context of Slowing Down Socio-economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 4, pp. 90–95, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.90-95.

3. Informatsiya o soveshchanii Prezidenta RF s chlenami Pravitel’stva RF 16 noyabrya 2022 g. v rezhime videokonferentsii [Information on the Meeting of the President of the Russian Federation with Members of the RF Government on November 16, 2022 Via Videoconference]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69847.

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How to Finance New Government Spendings: Possible Mechanisms in the Environment of Sanctions

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.26-29

Sanctions against the Russian Federation have created fundamentally new conditions for the functioning of the Russian economy.

This poses new challenges, which require government spendings increase. It appears that Russian regulators have unused mechanisms, the use of which will provide the economy with new money, without complicating the situation of other sectors. The article suggests mechanisms that highlights internal sources of liquidity formation for the economy. In the environment of sanctions, such mechanisms also increase the independence of monetary policy from external constraints.


1. Kommentarii Banka Rossii po operatsiyam na rynke gosudarstvennogo dolga [Bank of Russia’s Commentary on Operations in the Government Debt Market]. Bank of Russia, 2022, 18 marta, available at: http://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=12763.

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4. Ershov M.V. Kakaya ekonomicheskaya politika nuzhna Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsii? [What Kind of Economic Policy does Russia Need in the Face of Sanctions?]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2014, no 12, pp. 37–53.

Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.


1. Kuranov G.O. Metodicheskie voprosy kratkosrochnoi otsenki i prognoza makroekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Methodological Issues of Short-Term Assessment and Forecast of Macroeconomic Indicators]. Voprosy statistiki, 2018, no 25(2), pp. 3–24.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Volkova N.N., Surkov A.A., Romanyuk E.I. Sravnitel’nyi analiz modifitsirovannykh metodov Greindzhera — Ramanatkhana i Beitsa — Greindzhera dlya postroeniya ob”edinennogo prognoza dinamiki ekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Comparative Analysis of Modified Granger-Ramanathan and Bates-Granger Methods for Developing a Combined Forecast of Economic Indicators Dynamics]. Voprosy statistiki, 2019, no 26(8), pp. 14–27.

3. Shirov A.A. Makrostrukturnyi analiz i prognozirovanie v sovremennykh usloviyakh razvitiya ekonomiki [Macrostructural Analysis and Forecasting under Current Conditions of Economic Development]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2022, no 5, pp. 43–57.

4. Dmitrieva M.V., Suetin S.N. Modelirovanie dinamiki ravnovesnykh valyutnykh kursov [Simulating the Dynamics of Equilibrium Exchange Rates]. Vestnik KIGIT, 2012, no 12–2(30), pp. 061–064.

5. Linkevich E.F. Mirovaya valyutnaya sistema: poliinstrumental’nyi standart [World Monetary System: Polyinstrumental Standard]. Krasnodar, 2014, pp. 82–91.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Izmenenie strategii operirovaniya dollarom: zapusk SShA novogo kreditno-investitsionnogo tsikla vo vzaimosvyazi s valyutnymi voinami [Changing the Strategy of Dollar Handling: US Launch of New Credit-Investment Cycle in Association with the Currency Wars]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 3(129), pp. 20–35.

7. Fedorova E.A., Lazarev M.P. Vliyanie tseny na neft’ na finansovyi rynok Rossii v krizisnyi period [Impact of Oil Prices on the Financial Market of Russia During the Crisis]. Finansy i kredit, 2014, № 20(596), pp. 14–22.

8. Kuz’min A.Yu. Valyutnye kursy: v poiskakh strategicheskogo ravnovesiya [Exchange Rates: in Search of Strategic Equilibrium]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2018, no 1, pp. 82–91.

Phenomena of Quantum Economy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.30-41

The paper undertakes to analyse the changes in the economic agent which it is subject to when described from the perspective

of different worldviews. The mechanistic, electrodynamic and relativistic quantum worldviews suggest different interpretations of the properties of the object, hence describe economic objects different in nature. Reliance on physicalist methods makes it possible to reveal an economic agent displaying solidarity and to outline its preconditions. The goal of this research is reconsidering the object of economics and revealing its new properties. The first task is to describe the economic agent in mechanistic terms, the second task is to add to it the properties that are drawn from quantum mechanics.

The paper looks for analogies and metaphors of such phenomena as tunnel effect and duality of microparticles. It also suggests

a system of institutional organization for regulating demand for different categories of goods.

The theory of institutions is interpreted through the analogies of the electrodynamic worldview. The principles of behavioral economics are presented in terms of the quantum-relative worldview.

The article reveals a new production factor that allows the agent to exchange the labour performed in the system of informal institutions for its analogies in the formal system. It is inferred that the peculiarities of behaviour are formed by institutions and divide agents of demand into groups. The metaphors of quantum-field experiments are revealed to explain the mechanisms of influence on these groups depending on their preferences. The paper explores the agent of demand — the purchaser — consisting of multiple households. Economic analogies are searched in the process of interpreting the law of demand and supply.



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Contemporary Narratives for Applying International Economic Sanctions

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.22-29

Recently the role of sanction restrictions has sharply increased in the practice of regulating economic relations between countries,

meanwhile their application is determined by many factors. At the same time, in the context of intensifying geopolitical competition and growing volatility of the global economy, the dynamics of sanctions application raises more and more questions. On the one hand, economic sanctions are an instrument of coercion for target countries, and on the other hand they make international exchange and cross-border mobility of the factor more and more vulnerable. Heterogeneous nature of the economic sanctions’ impact on sending and target countries does not allow us to say that sanctions are an unambiguous instrument of an effective trade policy.

This article analyzes the key narratives of economic sanctions regimes in all their diversity at the present stage, new forms and

mechanisms of sanctions, as well as their consequences for various aspects of life of the world community.



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The Public-Private Partnership Market as a Factor of Economic Growth in the Regions

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.12-21

The purpose of this article is to assess the regions of the Russian Federation by the level of PPP development from the perspective

of their infrastructural and socio-economic development and the impact of PPP on accelerating their economic growth. To do this, the following tasks are being implemented: assessment of the general characteristics of the PPP market for the period 2006–2021, in particular, public and private contributions to PPP projects, distribution of investments in the areas under consideration; analysis of accumulated investments in the PPP market for the period 2006–2021, assessment of their impact on investment attractiveness and economic growth of regions based on the distribution by federal districts and regions of the Russian Federation; analysis of the market of large PPP projects for the period 2006–2021 from the position of influence on the strategic development of regions, its distribution by federal districts and regions of the Russian Federation; based on the results of the study, determining the top 10 most developed regions for the use of PPP mechanisms.

The methodology of the study is an analysis of the distribution of the classical PPP market by regions and districts based on the

construction of tables and diagrams. To characterize the overall economic and infrastructural development of the regions, PPP

projects in the housing, social, transport and IT spheres were considered.

The results of the study are that the assessment of the level of economic and infrastructural development of the regions is given; the strategic importance of PPP projects for the regions (especially large ones) is substantiated; it is determined that the successful implementation of PPP projects is a factor in the economic growth of the regions. Based on the analysis, the 10 most developed regions are identified from the point of view of the use of PPP mechanisms. The perspective of the study is to use its results to expand the PPP market, in particular, in territories in need of economic development. At the same time, in order to expand the territorial coverage of the PPP market, it is necessary to create conditions for the implementation of such projects in order to ensure the economic growth of the regions.



1. Chumakov I.I. Gosudarstvenno-chastnoe partnerstvo kak osnovnaya forma partnerstva gosudarstva i biznesa [Public-private Partnership as the Main Form of Partnership Between the State and the Business]. Aktual’nye problemy i perspektivy razvitiya ekonomiki: rossiiskii i zarubezhnyi opyt, 2017, no 11, 29–32.

2. Sukharev O.S. Instituty regional’nogo razvitiya: kontseptual’no-prakticheskii analiz organizatsionnykh izmenenii [Regional Development Institutions: Conceptual and Practical Analysis of Organizational Changes]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika, 2012, no 4 (259), pp. 2–12.

3. Sukharev O.S., Voronchikhina E.N. Tipy tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya regionov: struktura tekhnologii i investitsii [Types of Regions’ Technological Development: Structure of Technologies and Investments]. Investitsii v Rossii, 2019, no 7, pp. 24–36.

Foreign Direct Investment and Industrial Policy (Based on Examples of Certain Countries)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.6-11

The goal of the study is an attempt to rethink the role of Foreign Direct Investment, Industrial Policy and others phenomenon.

The author propose a new analysis of them in today’s conditions and circumstances. This article uses statistics published by OECD and IMF. The article pays particular attention to different approaches of certain countries (USSR, Russia, Italy, South Korea) in the field of import of Foreign Direct Investment and in the field of the Industrial Policy. Based on many years of the author’s experience in the Russian banking sphere and Russian business, the author puts forward certain economic advice to regulators in Russia.



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