Economics of Technology: The Problem of Asymmetry and the «Two Potentials Doctrine». Part I

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DOI: 10.33917/es-2.206.2026.38-45

The article dwells on the “economics of technology” as a scientific direction that was formed within the framework of an independent field of the broader area of the “economics of scientific and technological progress” (STP). The aim of the study is to assess the effect of declining quality of scientific and technological knowledge due to information asymmetry, as well as to introduce the “two potentials” doctrine — current and prospective ones for studying technological links, determining technological development and verifying technological policy. The research methodology is based on the fundamental principles of «technological economics,» regression and taxonomic analysis. Application of these positions and methods made it possible to substantiate ambiguity and invalidity of the “Akerlof effect” in describing the processes of declining the supposedly decreasing quality of scientific and technological results over time. It is shown that there is a lack of a convincing criterion for assessing quality and its modification, moreover this is an objective circumstance of a scientific development. This quality is ensured by the continuity and stage-by-stage nature (as well as increasing complexity) of scientific-technological development, which constitutes one of the fundamental principles of scientific-technological progress (STP). The article presents a regression model, tested for Russia, which links the level of technological sophistication, measured by the ratio of the volume of innovative to noninnovative products (works, services), with current and future potential. The author describes the greater influence of the current, rather than the prospective potential on the technological level, as well as the feedback of potentials themselves, when the growth of the prospective potential reduces the current potential. This result underlines the relevance of the problem of distributing resources between technological paradigms at the macro level, since maintaining current technological capabilities is no less important than providing resources for breakthrough ones, and searching a structure for distributing resources represents an unsolved problem in modern science, which is clearly outlined here. Solution to this problem is envisaged through additional study of the connectivity of structures and technologies, R&D and fundamental research. The exploration perspective is to use lagged variables and to establish possible influences and patterns taking them into account, as well as to improve models that reveal more complex relationships.

References:

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2. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Ryvok v budushchee. Rossiya v novykh tekhnologicheskom i mirokhozyaystvennom ukladakh [A Breakthrough into the Future. Russia in the New Technological and World Economic Structures]. Moscow, Knizhnyy mir, 2019, 768 p.

Russia’s Strategic Development in 2025: The Test of Strength Continues

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.206.2026.30-37

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for 2025 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Informatsiya o zasedanii Soveta pri Prezidente RF po strategicheskomu razvitiyu i natsional’nym proektam 8 dekabrya 2025 g. [Information on the Meeting of the Council under the President of the Russian Federation for Strategic Development and National Projects on December 8, 2025]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/78672

2. Informatsiya ob itogakh 2025 goda i otvetakh Prezidenta RF na voprosy zhurnalistov i zhiteley strany 19 dekabrya 2025 g. [Information on the Results of 2025 and the Answers of the President of the Russian Federation to Questions from Journalists and Residents of the Country on December 19, 2025]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/78815

3. Informatsiya ob otchete Pravitel’stva RF v Gosudarstvennoy dume 25 fevralya 2026 g. o rezul’tatakh raboty v 2025 godu [Information on the Russian Government’s Report to the State Duma on February 25, 2026, on the Results of Work in 2025]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Pravitel’stva RF, available at: http://government.ru/news/57933/

4. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii. 2025 god [Socioeconomic Situation in Russia. 2025]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-12-2025.pdf

5. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Yanvar’ — avgust 2025 goda: Strategicheskoe razvitie Rossii v usloviyakh novykh vyzovov i ugroz kollektivnogo Zapada [January — August 2025: Strategic Development of Russia in the Context of New Challenges and Threats from the Collective West]. *Ekonomicheskie strategii,* 2025, no 6(204), pp. 78–83, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.204.2025.78-83

6. Prognoz sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF na 2026 god i na planovyy period 2027 i 2028 godov. Sentyabr’ 2025 [Forecast of the Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2026 and for the Planning Period of 2027 and 2028. September 2025]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, available at: https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/directions/makroec/prognozy_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya/prognoz_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya_rf_na_2026_god_i_na_planovyy_period_2027_i_2028_godov.html

Economic Boundaries of the Transitional Period to Post-Industrial Development in the Context of Education System’s Changes

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.206.2026.22-29

Importance of education and the influence of qualified specialists are growing due to development of innovation-oriented economic trends. The share of highly qualified specialists employed in the economy increases twice during the transition period, reaching 35–45%, in line with the trend toward saturated growth in energy and resource consumption. Analysis of the development indicator statistics allows us to estimate the economic interval of the transition period at 20-23 thousand USD/person: from the beginning of the service sector’s dominance in GDP to the post-industrial equalization of labour productivity in the main sectors of economy. Education system’s modernization during the transition period meets the goals of innovative transformations in the economic structure and is associated with cooperation of basic and additional education forms, allowing the adaptation of acquired knowledge and skills to the high dynamics of changes in labour and employment priorities.

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Overcoming the Discrepancy Threat between Political Programs and Activities of the Executive Authorities — Targeted Information to Russian Citizens on the Government Activities Results

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.206.2026.14-21

The article dwells on the threat of a gap between political programs and activities of the executive power, the author puts forward the proposals for overcoming it.

Sustainability of the Power Institutions under Conditions of the Counteraction Centers Activity

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.206.2026.6-13

Strengthening of the vertical structure of federal governance in our country in recent years has encountered resistance in a number of Russian regions, which still remains latent. The article, based on general systems theory, proposes measures to maintain stability of the political regime’s power institutions in the face of active counteraction centers: control of financial and commodity flows, transport and communication channels that allows to cut off supply of resources to destructive forces, block their interaction within a region, between regions and with foreign control and support centers, preserving the possibility of the federal center to operate on sentiments of the local elites and large groups of population.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskiy fundament pobedy: strategicheskiy prognoz ustoychivosti ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. *Ekonomicheskie strategii,* 2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6—15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

2. Ageev A.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Novaya model’ upravleniya ekonomikoy Rossii v usloviyakh gibridnykh riskov i ugroz [New Model of the Russian Economy Management in the Context of Hybrid Risks and Threats]. *Ekonomicheskie strategii,* 2025, vol. 27, no 5(203), pp. 6—19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.203.2025.6-19

3. Loginov E.L., Matveev A.G., Shkuta A.A. Opredelenie parametrov lokalizovannykh sostoyaniy neyavnykh grupp s sobstvennoy komponentoy aktivnogo povedeniya, ne sovpadayushchego s vektorom deystviy gosudarstvennoy supersistemy [Determination of the Parameters of Localized States of Implicit Groups with Their Own Component of Active Behavior That does not Coincide with the Vector of Actions of the State Supersystem]. *Iskusstvennye obshchestva,* 2019, vol. 14, no 1, p. 5.

4. Loginov E.L. Ispol’zovanie tekhnologiy Big Data dlya protivodeystviya massovym besporyadkam v usloviyakh nedostatka informatsii i neopredelennosti razvitiya situatsii: Iskusstvennyy intellekt (bol’shie dannye) na sluzhbe politsii: Sb. statey Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii [Using Big Data Technologies to Counter Mass Unrest in Conditions of Information Shortage and Uncertainty of the Situation Development: Artificial Intelligence (Big Data) in the Service of the Police: Collection of Articles from the International Scientific and Practical Conference]. M.: Akademiya upravleniya Ministerstva vnutrennikh del Rossiyskoy Federatsii, 2020. S. 145—150.

5. Loginov E.L. Perekhvat upravleniya slozhnymi organizatsionnymi sistemami v usloviyakh razmyvaniya granits mezhdu fizicheskimi, kognitivnymi i tsifrovymi prostranstvami deyatel’nosti i sredami upravleniya [Taking Control of Complex Organizational Systems in the Context of Blurring Boundaries between Physical, Cognitive, and Digital Activity Spaces and Management Environments]. *Ekonomika: teoriya i praktika,* 2024, no 1(73), pp. 3—10.

Current Look at the Creation of AIIB and NDB in the Context of the Modern Economy

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.205.2026.54-61

The article examines key factors that led to the creation in the mid-2010s of two major international financial institutions as alternatives to the Bretton Woods institutions – the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank. Based on analysis of macroeconomic indicators (gross domestic product growth, share of world trade, gold and foreign exchange reserves), imbalance between the growing economic role of the BRICS countries (especially China) and their limited influence in traditional international financial institutions is demonstrated. It is emphasized that AIIB and NDB have become a response to inability of the existing global governance system to reflect new economic realities.

References:

1. Ageev A.I. Sdvigaya kontinenty: Slovo glavnogo redaktora [Shifting Continents: The Editor-in-Chief’s Word]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2024, no 5, p. 5.

2. Khellener E. Krizis statusa-kvo: global’noe finansovoe upravleniya posle krizisa 2008 g. [The Status Quo Crisis: Global Financial Governance After the 2008 Meltdown]. N.Y., Oksford Yuniversiti Press, 2014.

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5. Aziatskiy bank razvitiya. Strategiya-2030 [Asian Development Bank. Strategy’2030], available at: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/institutionaldocument/435391/strategy-2030-main-document.pdf

Monetary Policy of Russia and the Republic of Belarus: Current Trends and Challenges

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.205.2026.46-53

The author examines peculiarities of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia and the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus in the context of modern challenges.

References:

1. Konstitutsiya Rossiyskoy Federatsii (prinyata vsenarodnym golosovaniem 12 dekabrya 1993 g. s izmeneniyami, odobrennymi v khode obshcherossiyskogo golosovaniya 1 iyulya 2020 g.) [Constitution of the Russian Federation (adopted by popular vote on December 12, 1993, with amendments approved during the all-Russian vote on July 1, 2020)]. Dostup iz SPS “Konsul’tant Plyus”.

2. Federal’nyy zakon ot 10 iyulya 2002 g. N 86-FZ “O Tsentral’nom banke Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Banke Rossii)” [Federal Law of July 10, 2002 No. 86-FZ “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)”]. Rossiyskaya gazeta, 2002, no 127.

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8. MVF nazval targetirovanie inflyatsii i gibkiy obmennyy kurs odnimi iz klyuchevykh predposylok dlya povysheniya potentsiala rosta rossiyskoy ekonomiki: Informatsiya Banka Rossii ot 24 maya 2019 g. [IMF Identified Inflation Targeting and a Flexible Exchange Rate as Key Prerequisites for Increasing the Growth Potential of the Russian Economy: Information from the Bank of Russia Dated May 24, 2019]. Dostup iz SPS “Konsul’tant Plyus”.

9. Missiya MVF zayavila o vazhnosti sokhraneniya v Rossii prochnoy makroekonomicheskoy osnovy: Informatsionnoe soobshchenie Banka Rossii ot 21 noyabrya 2019 g. [IMF Mission Stated the Importance of Maintaining a Strong Macroeconomic Framework in Russia: Information Statement of the Bank of Russia Dated November 21, 2019]. Dostup iz SPS “Konsul’tant Plyus”.

10. Mery Banka Rossii sposobstvuyut vosstanovleniyu rossiyskoy ekonomiki — MVF: Informatsionnoe soobshchenie Banka Rossii ot 24 noyabrya 2020 g. [Bank of Russia’s Measures Contribute to the Recovery of the Russian Economy — IMF: Information Statement of the Bank of Russia Dated November 24, 2020]. Dostup iz SPS “Konsul’tant Plyus”.

Strategization of the Currency Policy and the Ruble’s Ultra-Short-Term Volatility

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.205.2026.38-45

The paradigm shift in international relations has caused significant changes in financial markets. The proposed author’s methodology for economic-mathematical modeling of the ruble exchange rate based on international flows makes it possible to include capital flows in the modeling orbit at a formal-logical level in an explicit form, taking into account their short-term volatility. Conducted during various crisis periods — formally based on results of mathematical modeling — analysis and assessment of short-term effects of the ruble exchange rate dynamics show the presence of preconditions for producing shortterm volatility in the national currency exchange rate under conditions of unfavorable geo-economic environment and a freefloating exchange rate regime. Based on the above, it is concluded that the Bank of Russia needs to make more serious efforts to implement a stabilization exchange rate policy, which is one of the key components of macroeconomic management.

References:

1. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Problemy i perspektivy rossiyskogo finansovogo rynka v usloviyakh strukturnykh izmeneniy mirovoy ekonomiki [Problems and Prospects of the Russian Financial Market in the Context of Structural Changes in the World Economy]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2020, no 24(3), pp. 6–29, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/problemy-i-perspektivy-rossiyskogo finansovogo-rynka-v-usloviyah-strukturnyh-izmeneniy-mirovoy-ekonomiki

2. Ishkhanov A., Linkevich E.F. Mezhdunarodnye valyutno-kreditnye i finansovye otnosheniya [International Monetary, Credit and Financial Relations]. Krasnodar, 2022, 149 p.

3. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Izmenenie strategii operirovaniya dollarom: zapusk SShA novogo kreditno-investitsionnogo tsikla vo vzaimosvyazi s valyutnymi voynami [Changing the Strategy of Dollar Handling: US Launch of New Credit-Investment Cycle in Association with the Currency Wars]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 3(129), pp. 20–35.

4. Pechalova M.Yu. Transformatsiya rossiyskoy valyutnoy politiki na fone obostreniya geopoliticheskoy napryazhennosti [Transformation of the Russian Monetary Policy Against the Background of Aggravation of Geopolitical Tensions]. Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo, 2023, no 16(1), pp. 48–57.

5. Chernov V.A. Uregulirovanie krizisa mezhdunarodnykh finansov instrumentami monetarnoy politiki [Settlement of the Crisis of International Finance by Monetary Policy Instruments]. Innovatsionnaya ekonomika i obshchestvo, 2023, no 3(41), pp. 48–64.

6. Kulikov N.I., Kulikova M.A., Parkhomenko V.L. Slabyy rubl’ kak odno iz glavnykh prepyatstviy dlya razvitiya i rosta rossiyskoy ekonomiki [Weak Ruble as a Main Obstacle to the Russian Economy’s Development and Growth]. Finansy i kredit, 2024, no 30(5), pp. 988–1016, DOI: https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.30.5.988

7. Eremin V.V. Obespechennost’ denezhnoy massy zolotovalyutnymi rezervami kak operezhayushchiy indikator kursa rublya [Provision of the Money Supply with Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Leading Indicator of the Ruble Exchange Rate]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2023, no 27(3), pp. 43–55.

Impact of Inflation Expectations of Different Generations of Consumers on Saving Patterns and Strategies when Purchasing Everyday Goods

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.204.2025.84-89

The article identifies the peculiarities of forming inflation expectations and corresponding savings strategies when purchasing everyday goods among different generations of Russians. Generational differences in economic behaviour are studied through methods of comparative, correlation and cluster analysis, as well as by content analysis of qualitative data on the motivation of consumer choice. A clear differentiation of consumer adaptation strategies to inflation and transformation of retail channels under their influence are established. The author recommends segmenting price policies and strengthening personalization of marketing communications, taking into account generational differences in the perception of economic risks, and using adaptive mechanisms for managing inflation expectations based on the intergenerational transmission of consumer preferences to develop effective anti-inflation and marketing strategies.

References:

1. Inflyatsionnye ozhidaniya Banka Rossii [Inflation expectations of the Bank of Russia]. Bank Rossii, available at: https://cbr.ru/analytics/dkp/inflationary_ expectations/

2. Demograficheskaya statistika Rosstata [Demographic Statistics of Rosstat]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki, available at: https://www. rosstat.gov.ru/folder/12781?print=1

3. Iogolevich N.I. Potrebitel’skie predpochteniya rossiyan raznykh pokoleniy [Consumer Preferences of Russians of Different Generations]. Izvestiya vysshikh uchebnykh zavedeniy. Sotsiologiya. Ekonomika. Politika, 2025, no 2, pp. 21–37, DOI 10.31660/1993-1824-2025-2-21-37, EDN: VGSNNU

4. Teoriya pokoleniy (X, Y, Z) v internet-marketinge [Generation Theory (X, Y, Z) in Internet Marketing]. VC.RU, available at: https://vc.ru/marketing/266386- teoriya-pokoleniy-x-y-z-v-internet-marketinge

5. Zavyalova E.B., Safronchuk M.V., Burzhinkaya A.E. The 4th industrial revolution and digital transformation: changes and challenges. International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, 2022, vol. 16, no 2/3/4, p. 417, DOI 10.1504/ijepee.2022.126619. EDN XSHDRS

6. Fomina S.N., Khaymey G. Potrebitel’skoe povedenie rossiyskoy i kitayskoy molodezhi: sravnitel’nyy analiz [Consumer Behavior of Russian and Chinese Youth: a Comparative Analysis]. Sotsfilosofskie issledovaniya, 2025, Iyul’, available at: https://socph.ru/ru/2025/07/потребительское-поведение-российско/

7. Itogi-2024 dlya FMCG: sochetanie nesochetaemogo: Materialy kompanii Nil’sen [Results of 2024 for FMCG: a Combination of the Incompatible: Materials of the Nielsen Company]. Nil’sen, available at: https://n-df.ru/trendy-rynka/tpost/ik4x8yol31-itogi-2024-dlya-fmcg-sochetanie-nesochet?ysclid=mejxg1mc6y210504107

8. TsB: inflyatsionnye ozhidaniya rossiyan vyrosli do 13,1% [Central Bank: Russians’ inflation expectations have risen to 13.1%]. RBK, 2025, 17 aprelya, available at: https://rbc.ru/quote/news/article/680114e99a7947cef304e231

January — August 2025: Russia’s Strategic Development in the Context of New Challenges and Threats from the Collective West

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.204.2025.78-83

The article dwells on the change in the market index of the «Economic Strategies» (MIES) for eight months in 2025. Contribution of supply and demand indicators to MIES is assessed. Industrial production is analyzed.

References:

1. Informatsiya o nagrazhdenii Prezidentom RF razrabotchikov krylatoy rakety “Burevestnik” i bespilotnogo podvodnogo apparata “Poseydon” 4 noyabrya 2025 g. [Information on the Awarding by the President of the Russian Federation of the Developers of the Burevestnik Cruise Missile and the Poseidon Unmanned Underwater Vehicle on November 4, 2025]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/78394

2. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii. Yanvar’ — avgust 2025 goda [Socioeconomic Situation in Russia. January–August 2025]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-08-2025.pdf

3. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii. Yanvar’ — sentyabr’ 2025 goda [Socioeconomic Situation in Russia. January–September 2025]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-09-2025.pdf

4. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Itogi strategicheskogo razvitiya Rossii v yanvare — aprele 2025 goda: ekonomicheskiy rost v usloviyakh zapadnykh sanktsiy [Results of Russia’s Strategic Development in January — April 2025: Economic Growth in the Context of Western Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2025, no 4(202), pp. 108–113, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es4.202.2025.108-113

5. Informatsiya o zasedanii Pravitel’stva RF 24 sentyabrya 2025 g. [Information about the Meeting of the Government of the Russian Federation on September 24, 2025]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Pravitel’stva RF, available at: http://government.ru/news/56304/

6. Prognoz sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF na 2026 god i na planovyy period 2027 i 2028 godov. Sentyabr’ 2025 [Forecast of the Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2026 and for the Planning Period of 2027 and 2028. September 2025]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, available at: https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/directions/makroec/prognozy_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya/prognoz_socialno_ekonomicheskogo_razvitiya_rf_na_2026_god_i_na_planovyy_period_2027_i_2028_godov.html