DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.26-29

Sanctions against the Russian Federation have created fundamentally new conditions for the functioning of the Russian economy.

This poses new challenges, which require government spendings increase. It appears that Russian regulators have unused mechanisms, the use of which will provide the economy with new money, without complicating the situation of other sectors. The article suggests mechanisms that highlights internal sources of liquidity formation for the economy. In the environment of sanctions, such mechanisms also increase the independence of monetary policy from external constraints.

References:

1. Kommentarii Banka Rossii po operatsiyam na rynke gosudarstvennogo dolga [Bank of Russia’s Commentary on Operations in the Government Debt Market]. Bank of Russia, 2022, 18 marta, available at: http://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=12763.

2. TsB RF [Central Bank of the Russian Federation]. Obzor riskov finansovykh rynkov, 2022, no 2–3(60–61), fevral’-mart.

3. Bank Rossii. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2023 god i period 2024 i 2025 godov: Proekt ot 11 avgusta 2022 g. [Bank of Russia. Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy for 2023 and the Period of 2024 and 2025: the Draft of August 11, 2022]. Bank Rossii, pp. 24–25, available at: https://cbr.ru/about_br/publ/ondkp/on_2023_2025/

4. Ershov M.V. Kakaya ekonomicheskaya politika nuzhna Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsii? [What Kind of Economic Policy does Russia Need in the Face of Sanctions?]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2014, no 12, pp. 37–53.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

1. Kuranov G.O. Metodicheskie voprosy kratkosrochnoi otsenki i prognoza makroekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Methodological Issues of Short-Term Assessment and Forecast of Macroeconomic Indicators]. Voprosy statistiki, 2018, no 25(2), pp. 3–24.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Volkova N.N., Surkov A.A., Romanyuk E.I. Sravnitel’nyi analiz modifitsirovannykh metodov Greindzhera — Ramanatkhana i Beitsa — Greindzhera dlya postroeniya ob”edinennogo prognoza dinamiki ekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Comparative Analysis of Modified Granger-Ramanathan and Bates-Granger Methods for Developing a Combined Forecast of Economic Indicators Dynamics]. Voprosy statistiki, 2019, no 26(8), pp. 14–27.

3. Shirov A.A. Makrostrukturnyi analiz i prognozirovanie v sovremennykh usloviyakh razvitiya ekonomiki [Macrostructural Analysis and Forecasting under Current Conditions of Economic Development]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2022, no 5, pp. 43–57.

4. Dmitrieva M.V., Suetin S.N. Modelirovanie dinamiki ravnovesnykh valyutnykh kursov [Simulating the Dynamics of Equilibrium Exchange Rates]. Vestnik KIGIT, 2012, no 12–2(30), pp. 061–064.

5. Linkevich E.F. Mirovaya valyutnaya sistema: poliinstrumental’nyi standart [World Monetary System: Polyinstrumental Standard]. Krasnodar, 2014, pp. 82–91.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Izmenenie strategii operirovaniya dollarom: zapusk SShA novogo kreditno-investitsionnogo tsikla vo vzaimosvyazi s valyutnymi voinami [Changing the Strategy of Dollar Handling: US Launch of New Credit-Investment Cycle in Association with the Currency Wars]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 3(129), pp. 20–35.

7. Fedorova E.A., Lazarev M.P. Vliyanie tseny na neft’ na finansovyi rynok Rossii v krizisnyi period [Impact of Oil Prices on the Financial Market of Russia During the Crisis]. Finansy i kredit, 2014, № 20(596), pp. 14–22.

8. Kuz’min A.Yu. Valyutnye kursy: v poiskakh strategicheskogo ravnovesiya [Exchange Rates: in Search of Strategic Equilibrium]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2018, no 1, pp. 82–91.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.30-41

The paper undertakes to analyse the changes in the economic agent which it is subject to when described from the perspective

of different worldviews. The mechanistic, electrodynamic and relativistic quantum worldviews suggest different interpretations of the properties of the object, hence describe economic objects different in nature. Reliance on physicalist methods makes it possible to reveal an economic agent displaying solidarity and to outline its preconditions. The goal of this research is reconsidering the object of economics and revealing its new properties. The first task is to describe the economic agent in mechanistic terms, the second task is to add to it the properties that are drawn from quantum mechanics.

The paper looks for analogies and metaphors of such phenomena as tunnel effect and duality of microparticles. It also suggests

a system of institutional organization for regulating demand for different categories of goods.

The theory of institutions is interpreted through the analogies of the electrodynamic worldview. The principles of behavioral economics are presented in terms of the quantum-relative worldview.

The article reveals a new production factor that allows the agent to exchange the labour performed in the system of informal institutions for its analogies in the formal system. It is inferred that the peculiarities of behaviour are formed by institutions and divide agents of demand into groups. The metaphors of quantum-field experiments are revealed to explain the mechanisms of influence on these groups depending on their preferences. The paper explores the agent of demand — the purchaser — consisting of multiple households. Economic analogies are searched in the process of interpreting the law of demand and supply.

References:

1. Mirowski P. More Heat than Light: Economics as Social Physics, Physics as Nature’s Economics. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1989, p. 3.

2. Stepin V.S. Teoreticheskoe znanie [Theoretical Knowledge]. Moscow, Progress-Traditsiya, 2000, 744 p.

3. Churilin M.Yu. Vliyanie progressa v estestvennykh naukakh na osmyslenie ponyatiya homo economicus [Influence of Progress in Sciences on the Understanding of the Notion of Homo Economicus]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2018, no 1, pp. 198–207.

4. Avtonomov V.S. Model’ cheloveka v ekonomicheskoi nauke [Human Model in Economics]. Saint Petersburg, Ekonomicheskaya shkola, 1998, p. 62. (Seriya: Eticheskaya ekonomiya: Issledovaniya po etike, kul’ture i filosofii khozyaistva.)

5. Fridmen M. Metodologiya pozitivnoi ekonomicheskoi nauki [Methodology of Positive Economics]. THESIS, 1994, vyp. 4, p. 36.

6. Grebnev L.S. Chelovek v ekonomike: teoretiko-metodologicheskii analiz [Human in Economics: Theoretical and Methodological Analysis]. Natsional’nyi issledovatel’skii universitet “Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki”, p. 22, available at: https://www.hse.ru/data/xf/2013/08/20/1291716033/dissertation.pdf.

7. Inglkhart R. Kul’turnaya evolyutsiya. Kak izmenyayutsya chelovecheskie motivatsii i kak eto menyaet mir [Cultural Evolution. How Human Motivations are Changing and How it is Changing the World]. Moscow, Mysl’, 2018, p. 21.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.22-29

Recently the role of sanction restrictions has sharply increased in the practice of regulating economic relations between countries,

meanwhile their application is determined by many factors. At the same time, in the context of intensifying geopolitical competition and growing volatility of the global economy, the dynamics of sanctions application raises more and more questions. On the one hand, economic sanctions are an instrument of coercion for target countries, and on the other hand they make international exchange and cross-border mobility of the factor more and more vulnerable. Heterogeneous nature of the economic sanctions’ impact on sending and target countries does not allow us to say that sanctions are an unambiguous instrument of an effective trade policy.

This article analyzes the key narratives of economic sanctions regimes in all their diversity at the present stage, new forms and

mechanisms of sanctions, as well as their consequences for various aspects of life of the world community.

References:

1. Spiegelberger W.R. Anatomy of a Muddle: U.S. Sanctions against Rusal and Oleg Deripaska. Russia Political Economy Project, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2019, April 29, available at: https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/04/anatomy-of-a-muddle-u-s-sanctions-against-rusal-and-oleg-deripaska/

2. Sanger D.E., Benner K., Goldstein V. Huawei and Top Executive Face Criminal Charges in the U.S. New York Times, 2019, January 28, available at: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/us/politics/meng-wanzhou-huawei-iran.html.

3. Hufbauer G.C., Jung E. What’s new in economic sanctions? European Economic Review, 2020, vol. 130, iss. C, pp. 103572.

4. Bapat N.A., Heinrich T., Kobayashi Y., Morgan T.C. Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: Sensitivity Analysis Using New Data. International Interactions, 2013, vol. 39 (1), pp. 9–98.

5. Early B.R., Spice R. Economic Sanctions, International Institutions, and Sanctions Busters: When Does Institutionalized Cooperation Help Sanctioning Efforts? Foreign Policy Analysis, 201, vol. 11 (3), pp. 339–360.

6. Peksen D. Autocracies and Economic Sanctions: The Divergent Impact of Authoritarian Regime Type on Sanctions Success. Defence and Peace Economics, 2017, vol. 30 (3), pp. 253–268.

7. Connolly G.E. Economic Sanctions. Agencies Assess Impacts on Targets, and Studies Suggest Several Factors Contribute to Sanctions’ Effectiveness. Report to Congressional Requesters, GAO-20-145, United States Government Accountability Office (GAO), 2019, October, p. 19.

8. Krustev V.L., Morgan T.C. Ending Economic Coercion: Domestic Politics and International Bargaining. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2011, vol. 28 (4), pp. 351–376.

9. Nooruddin I., Payton A.L. Dynamics of Influence in International Politics: The ICC, BIAs, and Economic Sanctions. Journal of Peace Research, 2010, vol. 47 (6), pp. 711–721.

10. Golliard M.M. Economic Sanctions: Embargo on Stage. Theory and Empirical Evidence. Fribourg, University of Tampere, 2013, January, pp. 107, 108.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.12-21

The purpose of this article is to assess the regions of the Russian Federation by the level of PPP development from the perspective

of their infrastructural and socio-economic development and the impact of PPP on accelerating their economic growth. To do this, the following tasks are being implemented: assessment of the general characteristics of the PPP market for the period 2006–2021, in particular, public and private contributions to PPP projects, distribution of investments in the areas under consideration; analysis of accumulated investments in the PPP market for the period 2006–2021, assessment of their impact on investment attractiveness and economic growth of regions based on the distribution by federal districts and regions of the Russian Federation; analysis of the market of large PPP projects for the period 2006–2021 from the position of influence on the strategic development of regions, its distribution by federal districts and regions of the Russian Federation; based on the results of the study, determining the top 10 most developed regions for the use of PPP mechanisms.

The methodology of the study is an analysis of the distribution of the classical PPP market by regions and districts based on the

construction of tables and diagrams. To characterize the overall economic and infrastructural development of the regions, PPP

projects in the housing, social, transport and IT spheres were considered.

The results of the study are that the assessment of the level of economic and infrastructural development of the regions is given; the strategic importance of PPP projects for the regions (especially large ones) is substantiated; it is determined that the successful implementation of PPP projects is a factor in the economic growth of the regions. Based on the analysis, the 10 most developed regions are identified from the point of view of the use of PPP mechanisms. The perspective of the study is to use its results to expand the PPP market, in particular, in territories in need of economic development. At the same time, in order to expand the territorial coverage of the PPP market, it is necessary to create conditions for the implementation of such projects in order to ensure the economic growth of the regions.

References:

1. Chumakov I.I. Gosudarstvenno-chastnoe partnerstvo kak osnovnaya forma partnerstva gosudarstva i biznesa [Public-private Partnership as the Main Form of Partnership Between the State and the Business]. Aktual’nye problemy i perspektivy razvitiya ekonomiki: rossiiskii i zarubezhnyi opyt, 2017, no 11, 29–32.

2. Sukharev O.S. Instituty regional’nogo razvitiya: kontseptual’no-prakticheskii analiz organizatsionnykh izmenenii [Regional Development Institutions: Conceptual and Practical Analysis of Organizational Changes]. Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika, 2012, no 4 (259), pp. 2–12.

3. Sukharev O.S., Voronchikhina E.N. Tipy tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya regionov: struktura tekhnologii i investitsii [Types of Regions’ Technological Development: Structure of Technologies and Investments]. Investitsii v Rossii, 2019, no 7, pp. 24–36.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.6-11

The goal of the study is an attempt to rethink the role of Foreign Direct Investment, Industrial Policy and others phenomenon.

The author propose a new analysis of them in today’s conditions and circumstances. This article uses statistics published by OECD and IMF. The article pays particular attention to different approaches of certain countries (USSR, Russia, Italy, South Korea) in the field of import of Foreign Direct Investment and in the field of the Industrial Policy. Based on many years of the author’s experience in the Russian banking sphere and Russian business, the author puts forward certain economic advice to regulators in Russia.

References:

1. IMF. World Economic Outlook — Rising Caseloads, a Disrupted Recovery, and Higher Inflation. Washington, DC, 2022.

2. IMF. World Economic Outlook — War Sets Back the Global Recovery. Washington, DC, 2022.

3. Soboleva Inna. Les experts russes redoutent une guerre mondiale d’ici dix ans. FR. Russia Beyond, 2013, April 16, available at: https://fr.rbth.com/tech/2013/04/16/les_experts_russes_redoutent_une_guerre_mondiale_dici_dix_ans_23165.

4. Glazyev S. How to win the war. Top War, 2014, July 26, available at: https:www.en.topwar.ru.

5. Kondratieff N. The World Economy and its Conjunctures during and after the War. Moscow, International Kondratieff Foundation, 2004.

6. Trotsky L. La courbe du d velopppement capitaliste. Marxists, 1923, Avril 21, available at: https://www.marxists.org/francais/trotsky/oeuvres/1923/04/lt19230421.htm.

7. Pokidchenko M.G. Sushchestvuet li ekonomicheskii tsikl? [Is there an Economic Cycle]. Voprosy teoreticheskoi ekonomiki, 2017, no 1, pp. 66–73, available at: http://questionset.ru/files/arch/2017/2017-N1/VTE_2017_1.pdf.

8. Ershov M.V, Lokhmachev V.F., Tatuzov V.Yu, Tanasova A.S. Global’nyi krizis (sravnitel’nyi analiz tsiklicheskikh protsessov) [About Tendencies of Global Crisis]. Bankovskoe delo, 2009, no 5, pp. 16–20, available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/contents.asp?id=33338082.

9.FDI in Fugures. Paris, OECD, 2022, April, available at: www.oecd.org.

10. Putin V. Economic Tasks. Working Day, 2012, January, 30, available at: http://archive.premier.gov.ru/eng/events/news/17888/

11. Ministerial Decree No. 328 validating the State Program of the Russian Federation “Development of industry and increase of its competitiveness” (аpril 2014), available at: http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/rus170671.pdf.

12. Federal Law No. 488-FZ of December 31, 2014 “On Industrial Policy”. FAO, available at: https://www.fao.org/faolex/results/details/ru/c/LEX-FAOC170671/

13. Vstrecha s chlenami pravitel’stva [Meeting with Governments Members]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, 2022, 23 marta, available at: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68037.

14. Idrisov G.I. Promyshlennaya politika Rossii v sovremennykh usloviyakh [Towards Modern Industrial Policy for Russia]. Moscow, Izd-vo Instituta Gaidara, 2016.

15. Strukturno-investitsionnaya politika v tselyakh ustoichivogo rosta i modernizatsii ekonomiki: Nauchnyi doklad [Structural and Investment Policy for Sustainable Growth and Modernization of the Economy: Scientific Report]. Pod red. V.V. Ivantera. Moscow, INP RAN, 2016.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.106-112

The article analyses the investment attractiveness of the Russian energy sector for foreign investors. Analysis is based on such indicators as the volume of energy resources’ production and export as well as their dynamics, foreign direct investment in the country’s energy industry, portfolio investment in the “green” energy industry. The author draws up a conclusion that despite the exports decrease in the main types of energy resources (oil, gas, coal, energy) over the past few years (2020–2021), Russia continues to play a leading role in the global fuel and energy complex, the volume of foreign direct investment in industry is steadily growing, the “green” energy industry is actively developing. The author also dwells on the difficulties that foreign investors have to face when investing in the Russian energy sector. The present study results in identifying the main directions for improving investment attractiveness of the Russian energy sector for potential foreign investors.

Источники:

1. Lizikova M. Nuclear energy prospects and legal challenges towards achieving sustainable development goals. E3S Web of Conferences, 2020, no 1, p. 02009.

2. Baisaeva M.U. Rol’ i znachenie inostrannykh investitsii v Rossii [Role and Importance of Foreign Investments in Russia]. Ekonomist”, 2020, no 1, pp. 80–82.

3. Vypkhanova G.V., Zhavoronkova N.G. Innovatsii v energetike — organizatsionno-pravovye aspekty [Innovations in the Energy Sector — Organizational and Legal Aspects]. Aktual’nye problemy rossiiskogo prava, 2021, vol. 16, no 1 (122), pp. 189–203.

4. Tsentral’nyi bank Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Central Bank of the Russian Federation], available at: https://www.cbr.ru/

5. Obzor energetiki stran BRIKS [Overview of the BRICS Countries Energy]. Sammit BRICS, 2020, November, 17, available at: https://brics-russia2020.ru/images/114/89/1148936.pdf.

6. Balafas V., Fakiolas E.T. From energy security to energy dominance: US’ blending of politics and economics. Strategic Analysis, 2020, no 44 (2), pp. 91–105.

7. Inevatova O.A., Matushkin E.F. Problemy i perspektivy ispol’zovaniya kapital’nykh vlozhenii v energetike [Problems and Prospects of Using Capital Investments in the Energy Industry]. Tendentsii razvitiya nauki i obrazovaniya, 2021, no 69-2, pp. 21–24.

8. Nagimova A. Arabskie investitsii v rossiiskuyu infrastrukturu [Arab Investments in Russian Infrastructure]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2020, vol. 64, no 3, pp. 80–87.

9. Eksport Rossiiskoi Federatsiei prirodnogo gaza (po dannym FTS i Rosstat) [Export of Natural Gas by the Russian Federation (According to the Federal Customs Service and Rosstat)]. Tsentral’nyi bank RF, available at: https://cbr.ru/vfs/statistics/credit_statistics/trade/gas.xls.

10. Ministerstvo energetiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation], available at: https://minenergo.gov.ru/

11. Pryamye investitsii po sektoram ekonomiki [Direct Investments by Sectors of the Economy]. Tsentral’nyi bank RF, available at: https://cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/svs/

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.100-105

The Gulf of Guinea is one of the most productive fishing areas in the ocean, which has attracted the attention of many external actors. The article considers the feasibility of cooperation between Russia and the member countries of the Fisheries Committee for the West Central Gulf of Guinea (FCWC) in the field of fisheries and aquaculture, as today Russian companies operate mainly to the north, in the waters of Morocco and Mauritania. The results of the analysis of the FCWC 2021-2030 Strategic Action Plan reveal the directions of maritime activities in the countries, the nature of external donors’ participation in the implementation of the project and the possibility of Russia’s inclusion. A conclusion is made about the prospects of russian investments in the development of fisheries and aquaculture in the region.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.90-95

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for five months of 2022 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

Источники:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — mae 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-May 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-05-2022.pdf.

2. Osnovnye parametry stsenarnykh uslovii prognoza sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2023 god i na planovyi period 2024 i 2025 godov [Main Parameters of the Scenario Conditions for Forecasting Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2023 and for the Planned Period of 2024 and 2025]. Ministerstvo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya RF, available at: https://www.economy.gov.ru/material/file/c56d9cd0365715292055fe5930854d59/scenarnye_usloviya_2023.pdf.

3. Informatsiya o Plenarnom zasedanii Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma s uchastiem Prezidenta RF 17 iyunya 2022 g. [Information on the Plenary Meeting of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum with Participation of the President of the Russian Federation on June 17, 2022]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68669.

4. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. 2021: stagflyatsiya ili tekhnologicheskii suverenitet — inogo ne dano! [2021: Stagflation or Technological Sovereignty — No Other Choice!]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 2, pp. 86–91, DOI: 10.33917/es-2.182.2022.86-91.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.82-89

Bread and bakery products are among the basic foods in Russia. Among the subjects of the Russian Federation 23 regions have seen an increase in the consumption of bread products in 2017–2020, leaders in consumption growth became the Astrakhan region, Republic of Ingushetia, the Chechen Republic and the Krasnodar Territory. These regions traditionally have a high consumption of bread products (10–19% higher than the Russian average). In addition, in the above North Caucasian regions, as well as in the Astrakhan region, in 2017–2020 Rosstat have recorded one of the lowest per capita monetary incomes of the population (30–53% lower than the average for the Russian Federation). In 2018– 2020 consumption of bread products in the Russian Federation was at the level of 116 kg per person a year, which is 20 kg or 21% higher than the recommended norm. Thus, resulting from a decline in revenues, the population switches from consumption of more expensive products to cheaper ones, saving on the purchase of meat, vegetables and fruit. Studies in this area have shown that bread products and vegetable oil in terms of kilocalories per ruble of costs stand in the first place, sugar and confectionery are in the second and potatoes are in the third place. The quality of the Russian consumer basket is the success of the nation’s longevity.