DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

The present paper follows up an earlier study on modeling and assessing the national strength of the world countries. This integral index is the most informative and popular indicator in the world that characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and at the same time makes it possible to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with similar indicators of other states.

In the past national strength calculations were carried out by well-known political figures, such as foreign policy strategist and director (from 1975 to 2013) of the main Office of Net Assessment (ONA) of the US Department of Defence, Andrew Marshall [1], founder of political realism, Nicholas John Spekeman [2], one of the leading US foreign policy experts, Hans Morgenthau [3], founder of neorealism theory Kenneth Neil Waltz [4], author of the theory of offensive realism John Mearsheimer [5] and others. To date, dozens of methods for assessing national strength have been developed, the first of which was put forward in 1741. In the article first of all we’ll consider the most well-known foreign results and then present our own ones. In our opinion, it is important to make calculations of the integral indicator of national strength on an ongoing basis, as well as to compare our country’s potential with alternative estimates of analytical centers of geopolitical opponents.

References:

1. Marshall A.W. A Program to Improve Analytic Methods related to Strategic Forces. Policy Sciences, 1982, no 15(1), pp. 47–50, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143367.

2. Spykman N.J. America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power (1942; reprint, Hamden, CT: Archon Books, 1970).

3. Morgenthau H.J. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 2nd edition. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1954.

4. Waltz K.H. Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.

5. Mearsheimer J.J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. N.Y., L., W.W. Norton & Company, 2001.

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8. Methodology: How the 2022 Best Countries Were Ranked. U.S. News & World Report, available at: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/methodology.

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10. About WPI. The World Power Index, available at: https://www.worldpowerindex.com/about-world-power-index/

11. Past Years. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/data/power.

12. What is Power. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/methodology/

13. Moyer J.D., Markle A. Relative national power codebook, version 7.2.2018. Denver, CO: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, 2018.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.52-65

“The world will never be the same again,” says the overwhelming majority of socially active Russians, referring to the “old world” as the planetary community until February 24, 2022. At the same time, the most rapid, cardinal, unmistakably projected transformations are announced as crucial tasks for Russia all Russian life support systems and accelerated modernization. The most important of them, according to the authors of the article, is the logistics project proposed in 2006 by Academicians of the Russian Academy of Sciences V.A. Sadovnichim and G.V. Osipov, which in the new edition is presented in the article as “United Eurasia – Transsib 2.0”. It is based on the concept of the spatial economy, which is made up of transnational megaprojects that have been successfully implemented over the past 70 years.

“United Eurasia — Transsib 2.0” at the initial stage is intended to overcome the attempts of Europe and the United States to implement a transport blockade of the Russian Federation. Such a blockade could hinder the development of our country, which would lead to a decrease in the living standards of the population and, as Russia’s enemies suggest, corrosion of national unity and consolidation of the masses with power structures after the start of the military operation to liberate Donbass. In the future, after the successful solution of the Russian transport problems proper, the proposed logistics project can successfully develop as a transcontinental one, linking different regions of the world along new economically and politically promising vectors and directions. In particular, we can talk about pairing with the Chinese logistics corridor “Silk Road”, to counter which at the June G7 summit in South Bavaria, the countries of the “golden billion” proposed to allocate unprecedented investments of 0 billion.

The article contains a list of the main threats to the Russian Federation, consisting of 10 points, and a summary of their prompt relief with subsequent complete elimination. The technology for the implementation of the megaproject “United Eurasia — Transsib 2.0” has been prescribed — along with budgetary financing of the new Transsib, it is planned to attract investments from the regional budgets of those entities through which the proposed route will pass, as well as to co-finance the capital of private investors and issue marketable “Trans-Siberian” loan bonds.

Obviously, after conducting a special military operation in Ukraine, Russia will have to equip its Eurasian space between Europe and East Asia in the shortest possible time in the neighborhood of five civilizations — Christian, Muslim, Hindu, Shinto and Buddhist — so that it can finally become a territory of safe solidarity development.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.66-75

Technological forecasts are intended to serve as a guide for business and government authorities. However, post factum they often demonstrate a low instrumental value. The authors propose to use the technological megacycle concept as a methodological “framework” for forming technological forecasts. The article provides empirical evidence of the expediency of such approach in long-term forecasting.

References:

1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Kontseptsiya otraslevogo rasprostraneniya bazisnykh tekhnologii: novyi tekhnologicheskii megatsikl [Concept of Sectoral Proliferation of Basic Technologies: a New Technological Megacycle]. Ekonomist, 2020, no 1, pp. 25–35.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskii megatsikl i promyshlennaya politika [Technological Megacycle and Industrial Policy]. Ekonomist, 2021, no 1, pp. 43–54.

3. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Strategicheskoe planirovanie i promyshlennaya politika na sovremennom etape tsiklicheskogo mirokhozyaistvennogo razvitiya [Strategic Planning and Industrial Policy at the Current Stage of the Cyclic World Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 1(181), pp. 40–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.40-51.

4. Knyazev Yu.K. O tekhnologicheskikh tsiklakh v mirovoi ekonomike [On Technological Cycles in the Global Economy]. Obshchestvo i ekonomika, 2022, no 4, pp. 6, 7.

5. Glazkova V.V. Funktsionirovanie i razvitie sistemy teplosnabzheniya v Rossii v usloviyakh smeny energeticheskogo uklada [Functioning and Development of the Heat Supply System in Russia in the Context of Changing Energy Patterns]. E-Management, 2022, vol 5, no 2, pp. 23, 24.

6. Bresnahan T.F., Trajtenberg M. General Purpose Technologies: “Engines of Growth”? Journal of Econometrics, 1995, vol. 65, no 1, pp. 83–108.

7. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Mirokhozyaistvennye uklady v global’nom ekonomicheskom razvitii [World Economic Structures in Global Economic Development]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody, 2016, vol 52, no 2, pp. 3–29.

8. Aivazov A.E., Belikov V.A. Formirovanie integral’nogo mirokhozyaistvennogo uklada — budushchee mirovoi ekonomiki [Formation of an Integral World Economic Order is the Future of the Global Economy]. Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoi Rossii, 2017, no 1(76), pp. 7–21.

9. Albright R.E. What can Past Technology Forecasts Tell us about the Future? Submitted to Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2002, January, p. 5.

10. Kurzweil R. How My Predictions Are Faring, 2010, October.

11. 21st Century Technologies: Promises and Perils of a Dynamic Future. OECD, 1998, p. 46.

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13. Saritas O. An OECD Horizon Scan of Megatrends and Technology Trends in the Context of Future Research Policy. OECD, 2016, p. 8.

14. Technology and Innovation Report 2021. UNCTAD, 2021.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.76-85

The article considers the content of the ESG requirements as a transitional phase from unregulated globalization to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals until 2030, focuses on the social component, as well as on the relationship between achieving steering ejection with the restructuring of energy generating segments of national economies, incl. developing countries; it is emphasized that the developed countries, proclaiming the energy transition to renewable sources, use the potential of developing economies for their own purposes, which strengthens the trend towards state regulation of developing countries in order to achieve national economic objectives; it is analyzed that the unconditional implementation of the ESG principles led to a reduction in long-term investments in exploration and production of fossil energy sources, which in turn led to a sharp increase in prices in world markets; it is substantiated that the process of energy transition requires smooth implementation of the process, in connection with which a radical rejection of fossil fuels is unacceptable in modern conditions, and given the sanctions strategy of the Anglo-Saxon countries in relation to a number of states with an increased social component in the investment load of economic entities, in practice undermines the achievement of the goals of environmental justice, assistance to increase the welfare of the population and increase the social responsibility of companies to society.

References:

1. 17 tselei dlya preobrazovaniya nashego mira [17 Goals for Transforming Our World]. OON, available at: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/ru/

2. Shirokomasshtabnoe, bystroe i usilivayushcheesya izmenenie klimata — MGEIK: Press-reliz MGEIK [Widespread, Rapid and Accelerating Climate Change — IPCC: IPCC Press Release]. IPCC. 2021б available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2021/08/IPCC_WGI-AR6-Press-Release_ru.pdf.

3. Doklad Rosgidrometa ob osobennostyakh klimata na territorii RF za 2021 god [Roshydromet Report on the Climate Peculiarities in the Russian Federation for 2021]. Izmenenie klimata, 2022, no 95.

4. Henisz W., Koller T., Nuttall R. Five Ways That ESG Creates Value. McKinsey, available at: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-andcorporate-finance/our-insights/five-ways-that-esg-creates-value.

5. ESG Trends 2021: Energy Transition. Oxford Business Group, 2021, available at: https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/esg-trends-2021-energy-transition.

6. How will Net Zero 2050 plans affect emerging markets? Oxford Business Group, available at: https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/how-will-net-zero-2050-plans-affect-emerging-markets.

7. MEA nazvalo 2021 god rekordnym po rostu “zelenoi” energetiki [IEA has Named 2021 a Record Year for the “Green” Energy Growth]. RBK, available at: https://trends.rbc.ru/trends/green/61a8b7f89a79475ba760b602.

8. Morrison R. Environmental, Social, and Governance Theory. Competitive Enterprise Institute, 2021, available at: https://cei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Richard-Morrison-ESG-Theory.pdf.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.86-91

We describe the “window of opport unity” objectively opened up after the coronacrisis for Russia’s entering advanced service niches in global industrial chains and improving its international specialization. We show that after falling under Western sanctions in Spring 2022, Russia has lost this opportunity and suffers a technological rollback due to isolation from global markets.

References:

1. Export by Product Group. 2020. WITS, available at: https://wits.worldbank.org/

2. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D., Malygin V.E. Global’nye stoimostnye tsepochki v epokhu neopredelennosti: preimushchestva, uyazvimosti, sposoby ukrepleniya rezil’entnosti [Global Value Chains in the Age of Uncertainty: Advantages, Vulnerabilities, Ways for Enhancing Resilience]. Baltiiskii region, 2021, no 3, pp. 78–107.

3. Ivanov D. Viable supply chain model: Integrating agility, resilience and sustainability perspectives-lessons from and thinking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. Annals of operations research, 2020. P. 1–21.

4. World Bank. World development report 2020: Trading for development in the age of global value chains. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2020.

5. World Bank. Russia integrates: Deepening the country’s integration in the global economy. Washington, DC, World Bank, 2020.

6. Abdrakhmanova G.I., et al. Sektor IKT v 2021 godu: na pike rosta v preddverii novykh uslovii [ICT Sector in 2021: the Pinnacle of Growth on the Threshold of New Conditions]. Tsifrovaya ekonomika, 2022, no 56(240), available at: https://issek.hse.ru/news/655861546.html.

7. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D. Shansy vykhoda Rossii na rynki Industrii 4.0 cherez uluchshenie svoikh pozitsii v raspredelennom proizvodstve [Russia’s Opportunities for Entering Industry 4.0 Markets by Improving Its Position in Distributed Production]. Zhurnal Novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii, 2022, no 1(53), pp. 223–231.

8. Panel’ monitoringa sanktsii protiv Rossii [Russia Sanctions Dashboard]. Castellum.AI, available at: https://www.castellum.ai/russia-sanctionsdashboard

9. Bank Rossii. Makroekonomika i rynki [Bank of Russia. Macroeconomics and Markets]. O chem govoryat trendy, 2022, no 2, available at: https://cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/40953/bulletin_22-02.pdf.

10. Simola H. Trade sanctions and Russian production. BOFIT. Policy Briefs, 2022, no 4.

11. Chorzempa M. Export controls against Russia are working — with the help of China. The Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2022, available at: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/export-controls-against-russia-are-working-help-china.

12. Bank Rossii. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2023 god i period 2024 i 2025 godov [Bank of Russia. The Main Directions of the State Monetary Policy for 2023 and the Period of 2024 and 2025]. Moscow, Bank Rossii, 2022.

13. Chebakova D., Balashova A. Uchastniki rynka otsenili novuyu volnu uezzhayushchikh iz Rossii aitishnikov [Market Participants have Assessed a New Wave of IT Specialists Leaving Russia]. RBK, 2022, 28 sentyabrya, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/technology_and_media/28/09/2022/633324f39a7947518c6fd452.

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.33917/es-6.186.2022.96-103

The article proposes a variant of creating, basis of the existing duty services, security units and dispatch centers of the physical body of a large mining and metallurgical company the System of situational-analytical security centers (SASC system) as a system of information, information-analytical and information-technological support of managerial activities of the heads of corporate security unit, as well as heads of other departments of a company for collecting, accumulating, analyzing diverse information on the evolving situation in the field of security, its comprehensive presentation. Such a system for supporting management activities in the field of integrated security should include all lines of work that fall within the competence of the Department of Corporate Protection of the Company.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.104-110

The paper discusses three key issues that play a special role in the development of strategies and policies for digital technologies: 1) particularities of digital technologies that greatly influence the principles and methodological approaches to the development of strategic documents, 2) drivers, main players and trends of global market, 3) trends in the accumulation of a technological knowledge base to provide competitive advantages to national companies in the short and medium term.

References:

1. Gaponenko N.V., Glenn J.C. Technology Industry 4.0: Problems of Labor, Employment and Unemployment. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2020, vol. 31, no 3, pp. 271–276.

2. Gaponenko N.V. Teoreticheskie i metodologicheskie osnovy issledovaniya innovatsionnykh sistem i formirovaniya tekhnologicheskikh prioritetov ikh razvitiya v ekonomike, osnovannoi na znaniyakh [Theoretical and Methodological Foundations for Studying Innovative Systems and Forming Technological Priorities of their Development in the Knowledge-Based Economy]. Moscow, IPRAN RAN, 2020, 151 p.

3. Gaponenko N.V. Zakonomernosti i osobennosti evolyutsii sektoral’nykh innovatsionnykh sistem v ramkakh dolgosrochnogo tsikla [Regularities and Evolution Features of Sectoral Innovation Systems within the Long-Term Cycle]. Systems and Management, 2020, no 1, pp. 44–67.

4. Gaponenko N.V. Sektoral’nye innovatsionnye sistemy v ekonomike, osnovannoi na znaniyakh [Sectoral Innovation Systems in the Knowledge-Based Economy]. Moscow, IPRAN RAN, 2021, 264 p.

5. Going Digital: Shaping Policies, Improving Lives. Paris, OECD Publishing, 2019.

6. IT Industry Outlook 2021. CompTIA, 2020.

7. Gaponenko N.V. Global’nye vyzovy v formirovanii politsentrichnogo mirovogo poryadka: traektorii retro i traektorii budushchego [Global Challenges in Formation of a Polycentric World Order: Retro Trajectories and Trajectories of the Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, vol. 22, no 1(167), pp. 28–35, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.167.2020.28-35/

8. Positive 5G Outlook Post COVID-19: What Does It Mean for Avid Gamers? Forest Interactive, 2020.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.111-117

The article studies the current state and development problems of the Russian ferrous metallurgy market in the context of the sanction’s crisis caused by a special military operation. It is shown that the conduct of a special Russian military operation in Ukraine increases the burden on the already stretched global supply chains, and the metal markets are no exception. The metals that fell under the sanctions are considered.

It is concluded that the start of a military special operation in Ukraine caused an increase in sanctions pressure on Russia from Western countries and a ban on the supply of steel products to the EU countries. It has been determined that under the current conditions, the issue of redistributing production volumes to other markets becomes the most relevant for the industry, while the replacement of falling volumes will occur by increasing supplies to Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, as well as to the domestic market.

References:

1. Bazhenov O. V., Baev D.V. Vliyanie pryamykh zarubezhnykh investitsii na razvitie otrasli chernoi metallurgii v Rossii [Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Development of the Ferrous Metallurgy Industry in Russia]. Izvestiya vysshikh uchebnykh zavedenii. Chernaya metallurgiya, 2017, no 60(1), pp. 67–73.

2. Kostyukhin Yu.Yu. Potentsial promyshlennogo predpriyatiya i ego ispol’zovanie [Potential of an Industrial Enterprise and its Application]. Moscow, MISiS, 2019, pp. 87–92.

3. Kostyukhin Yu.Yu. Formirovanie sistemy upravleniya postupatel’nym razvitiem metallurgicheskogo predpriyatiya na osnove ego potentsiala [Establishing the Management System for Progressive Development of a Metallurgical Enterprise on the Basis of its Potential]. Moscow, MISiS, 2020, pp. 98–104.

4. Kostyukhin Yu.Yu. Strategicheskoe upravlenie rossiiskoi metallurgiei v usloviyakh vyzovov i riskov [Strategic Management of Russian Metallurgy in the Face of Challenges and Risks]. Upravlencheskie nauki, 2022, no 2, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/strategicheskoe-upravlenie-rossiyskoy-metallurgieyvusloviyah-vyzovov-i-riskov.

5. Kharlanov A.S. Analiz trendov mirovogo metallicheskogo kompleksa v period postpandemiinogo vosstanovleniya: chernaya i tsvetnaya metallurgiya [Analysis of Trends in the Global Metal Complex in the Period of Post-Pandemic Recovery: Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metallurgy]. Innovatsii i investitsii, 2021, no 3, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/analiz-trendov-mirovogo-metallicheskogo-kompleksa-v-period-postpandemiynogo-vosstanovleniya-chernayai-tsvetnayametallurgiya.

6. Shtanskii V.A. Obespechenie ustoichivogo innovatsionnogo razvitiya predpriyatii metallurgicheskogo kompleksa [Ensuring Sustainable Innovative Development of Metallurgical Complex Enterprises]. Ekonomika promyshlennosti, 2019, no 4(12), pp. 466–472, DOI: 10.17073/2072-1633-2019-4-466-472.

7. Promyshlennoe proizvodstvo v 2021 godu [Industrial Production in 2021]. Rosstat, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru›folder›document.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.118-125

This article discusses various aspects of the situation of import substitution in the field of perfumery and cosmetics retail, which has developed in the Russian Federation in the middle of 2022. The author analyzes the changes that have occurred in the market after the tightening of sanctions and restrictions by Western countries. Further trends in the development of the domestic perfumery and cosmetics market are revealed. It is concluded that the events taking place not only have negative aspects, but also provide ample opportunities for domestic producers. The Russian market and the perfume and cosmetics industry itself are waiting for serious internal transformations in the coming years, but the market capacity cannot decrease and will tend to increase, which determines the need for effective import substitution based on the development of own production and increased supplies from friendly countries.

References:

1. Shmidt M. B’yuti-rynok Rossii: vzglyad top-menedzhera ekspata [Russian Beauty Market: View of an Expat Top Manager]. E-xecutive.ru, available at: https://www.e-xecutive.ru/management/practices/1992062-beauty-rynok-rossii-vzglyad-top-menedzhera-ekspata.

2. Importozameshchenie v sfere kosmeticheskogo osnashcheniya [Import Substitution in the Field of Cosmetic Equipment]. Postavshchiki mashin i oborudovaniya, available at: https://www.oborudunion.ru/publications/releases/34398.

3. Andrianova D. Kraski bleknut. Kosmetika dorozhaet i plokho importiruetsya [Colors Are Fading. Cosmetics Become More Expensive and Poorly Imported]. Kommersant”, 2022, 3 marta.

4. Mertsalova A., Kostyrev A. Parfyumeriya zapakhla defitsitom [Perfumes Started Smelling of Deficiency]. Kommersant”, 2022, 26 marta.

5. Bezuglova V. V ozhidanii renessansa rossiiskoi kosmetiki [Waiting for the Renaissance of Russian cosmetics]. Ekspert, 2022, no 23, available at: https://expert.ru/expert/2022/23/v-ozhidanii-renessansa-rossiyskoy-kosmetiki.

6. Kobits E. Kosmeticheskie perspektivy: peredel rynka na ruku rossiiskim brendam [Cosmetic Prospects: Market Redistribution Is on Hand to Russian Brands]. Ekspert, 2022, 20 aprelya, available at: https://expert.ru/2022/04/20/kosmeticheskiye-perspektivy-peredel-rynka-na-ruku-rossiyskim-brendam.

7. Kobits E. Rossiiskaya kosmetika pokazala nereal’nyi rezul’tat [Russian Cosmetics Showed an Unrealistic Result]. Ekspert, 2022, 1 iyunya, available at: https://expert.ru/2022/06/1/rossiyskaya-kosmetika-probivayet-potolok.

8. Minpromtorg isklyuchil sokrashchenie assortimenta kosmetiki i parfyumerii [Ministry of Industry and Trade Ruled Out a Reduction in the Range of Cosmetics and Perfumes]. Retail Loyalty, available at: https://retail-loyalty.org/news/minpromtorg-isklyuchil-sokrashchenie-assortimenta-kosmetiki-i-parfyumerii.

9. Rynok kosmetiki v Rossii (s vidami), vliyanie sanktsii (s dannymi za yanvar’ — fevral’ 2022 g.): issledovanie i prognoz do 2026 g. Vypusk: 2022 g., iyun’ [Cosmetics Market in Russia (with Types), Impact of Sanctions (with Data for January — February 2022): Research and Forecast until 2026. Issue: 2022, June]. ROIF Expert, available at: https://roif-expert.ru/potrebitelskie-tovary/sredstva-po-uhodu/rynok-kosmetiki/rynok-kosmetiki-v-rossii-issledovanie-i-prognoz.html.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.126-133

Principles are the basis of the law: a constant connection between the previous and the next, between the current state of the world and the immediate coming. One of the basic principles of the evolution of human society since ancient times has been the principle of trust — you could only survive together by trusting your own. The principle of trust was the basis for building trust-based management systems that evolved, reflecting the basic models of the market code.

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