DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

The present paper follows up an earlier study on modeling and assessing the national strength of the world countries. This integral index is the most informative and popular indicator in the world that characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and at the same time makes it possible to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with similar indicators of other states.

In the past national strength calculations were carried out by well-known political figures, such as foreign policy strategist and director (from 1975 to 2013) of the main Office of Net Assessment (ONA) of the US Department of Defence, Andrew Marshall [1], founder of political realism, Nicholas John Spekeman [2], one of the leading US foreign policy experts, Hans Morgenthau [3], founder of neorealism theory Kenneth Neil Waltz [4], author of the theory of offensive realism John Mearsheimer [5] and others. To date, dozens of methods for assessing national strength have been developed, the first of which was put forward in 1741. In the article first of all we’ll consider the most well-known foreign results and then present our own ones. In our opinion, it is important to make calculations of the integral indicator of national strength on an ongoing basis, as well as to compare our country’s potential with alternative estimates of analytical centers of geopolitical opponents.

References:

1. Marshall A.W. A Program to Improve Analytic Methods related to Strategic Forces. Policy Sciences, 1982, no 15(1), pp. 47–50, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143367.

2. Spykman N.J. America’s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power (1942; reprint, Hamden, CT: Archon Books, 1970).

3. Morgenthau H.J. Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 2nd edition. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1954.

4. Waltz K.H. Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.

5. Mearsheimer J.J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. N.Y., L., W.W. Norton & Company, 2001.

6. Correlates of War, available at: https://correlatesofwar.org.

7. Power. U.S. News & World Report, available at: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings/power.

8. Methodology: How the 2022 Best Countries Were Ranked. U.S. News & World Report, available at: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/methodology.

9. Most Powerful Countries 2022. World Population Review, available at: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-powerful-countries.

10. About WPI. The World Power Index, available at: https://www.worldpowerindex.com/about-world-power-index/

11. Past Years. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/data/power.

12. What is Power. Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, available at: https://power.lowyinstitute.org/methodology/

13. Moyer J.D., Markle A. Relative national power codebook, version 7.2.2018. Denver, CO: Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, 2018.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.6-16

The risks of increasing international tension have sharply exacerbated the possibility of a nuclear conflict. The main geopolitical players in the international arena have actually recognized the possibility and even expediency of using nuclear weapons. In this context, the need to simulate the consequences of a nuclear strike in order to prepare for emergencies of a critical nature has become extremely urgent. The present article analyzes foreign experience of using digital simulators to this end. The authors outline Russian views on applying agent-based simulation methods for this purpose in the analysis of non-military (civilian) aspects of a nuclear blow effects.

Источники:

1. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Podgotovka sistemy gosudarstvennogo upravleniya Rossii k sverkhkriticheskim situatsiyam prirodnogo i tekhnogennogo kharaktera [Preparing the Public Administration System of Russia for Supercritical Situations of Natural and Man-made Nature]. Problemy upravleniya bezopasnost’yu slozhnykh sistem: Materialy XXIX Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, 15 dekabrya 2021 g. [Problems of Safety Management of Complex Systems: Proceedings of the XXIX International Scientific-practical Conference. Moscow, December 15, 2021]. Moscow, Institut problem upravleniya im. V.A. Trapeznikova RAN, pp. 99–103.

2. Ageev A.I., Bochkarev O.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Setetsentricheskaya sistema povyshennoi zhivuchesti upravleniya energetikoi Rossii v slozhnoprognoziruemykh kriticheskikh usloviyakh [Net-Centric System of Elevated Survivability of Energy Management in Russia Under Difficult-to-predict Critical Conditions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, vol. 23, no 3 (177), pp. 6–17, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.6-17.

3. Moiseev N.N., Aleksandrov V.V., Tarko A.M. Chelovek i biosfera: Opyt sistemnogo analiza i eksperimenty s modelyami [Man and the Biosphere: The Experience of System Analysis and Experiments with Models]. Moscow, Nauka, 1985, 271 p.

4. Yadernaya zima i ee komp’yuternoe modelirovanie v 80-kh [Nuclear Winter and Its Computer Simulation in the 80s]. Khabr, 2022, May, 28, available at: https://habr.com/ru/company/ruvds/blog/668256/

5. Turco R.P., Toon O.B., Ackerman T.P., Pollack J.B., Sagan C. Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions, 1984.

6. Kokoshin A.A., Arbatov A.G., Vasil’ev A.A. Yadernoe oruzhie i strategicheskaya stabil’nost’ (stat’ya pervaya) [Nuclear Weapons and Strategic Stability (Article One)]. SShA: Ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 1987, no 9, p. 3.

7. John M. Gates. The U.S. Army and Irregular Warfare. The College of Wooster Wooster, Ohio, available at: https://discover.wooster.edu/jgates/files/2011/11/fullbook.pdf.

8. Starr S. Deadly Climate Change From Nuclear War: A threat to human existence, available at: https://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/en/deadly-climate-changefromnuclear-war.pdf.

9. Velikhov E., Kokoshin A. Yadernoe oruzhie i dilemmy mezhdunarodnoi bezopasnosti [Nuclear Weapons and International Security Dilemmas]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1985, no 4, p. 20.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.6-19

One of the most promising tools for monitoring and predicting social processes are agent-based models, which are widely used abroad. Their advantage lies in the consideration of the system under study at the level of its individual individuals, which increases the realism of these computer-based assessment methods. In Russia, this direction is also developing, although not so actively. The article discusses the dynamics of the population of Russia, as well as the factors of increasing the birth rate, successful examples of the practical implementation of agent models for studying social processes, a brief description of the model we developed, which includes 146 million agents, is given. With the help of this tool, a forecast of the population of Russia and an assessment of the impact on this indicator of some measures aimed at improving the demographic situation were obtained.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I. Modelirovanie i otsenka natsional’noi sily Rossii [Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 2, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.168.2020.6-19.

2. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

3. Andreev E.M., Darskii L.E., Khar’kova T.L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993, 143 p.

4. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki [Federal State Statistics Service], available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru.

5. Zdravookhranenie [Healthcare]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at:  https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/13721.

6. Sobotka T., Matysiak A., Brzozowska Z. Policy responses to low fertility: How effective are they? Working Paper, May, 2019, N 1, available at: https://www.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/Policy_responses_low_fertility_UNFPA_WP_Final_corrections_7Feb2020_CLEAN.pdf.

7. The World Bank, available at: https://data.worldbank.org.

8. Aganbegyan A.G. O katastroficheskom uvelichenii smertnosti i merakh po sberezheniyu naroda v Rossii [On Catastrophic Increase in Mortality and Measures to Save the People in Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 4, pp. 6–13, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.6-13.

9. Country Comparisons — Death Rate. The World Factbook, available at: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison.

10. Goldstein J.R., Koulovatianos C., Li J., Schr der C. Evaluating how child allowances and daycare subsidies affect fertility. Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, available at: http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-430067.

11. Kalwij A. The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe. Demography, 2010, N 47(2), pp. 503–519, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0104.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.20-33

The introduction of digital technologies has a significant impact on the development of the entire public administration system and its most important element — the strategic planning system. Modern digital intelligent technologies and the work of government bodies based on the advanced achievements of management science and the unity of methodological approaches make it possible to raise the strategic planning system to a qualitatively new level. The key to success is the coordinated development of both the public administration system itself and the nationwide information and control systems. The authors, based on the analysis of the content of strategic management activities and the information used for this activity, formulated general approaches to the choice of information technologies to ensure the implementation of the stages of strategic  management.

Источники:

1. Putin V.V. Zasedanie Soveta Bezopasnosti 27 sentyabrya 2021 g. [Meeting of the Security Council on September 27, 2021. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66777.

2. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 8 noyabrya 2021 g. N 633 “Ob utverzhdenii Osnov gosudarstvennoi politiki v sfere strategicheskogo planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of November 8, 2011 No. 633 “On Approval of the Fundamentals of State Policy in the Sphere of Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”]. Garant, available at: https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/402915816/

3. Kudryashova E.V. Informatsionnye tekhnologii dlya strategicheskogo planirovaniya v Rossii: etapy razvitiya i perspektivy [Information Technology for Strategic Planning in Russia: Development Stages and Prospects]. Gosudarstvennaya vlast’ i mestnoe samoupravlenie, 2021, no 2, pp. 36–40.

4. Andreeva Z.K., Baryshnikov P.Yu., Zhurenkov D.A., et al. Strategicheskoe tselepolaganie v situatsionnykh tsentrakh razvitiya [Strategic Goal-setting in Situational Development Centers]. Pod red. V.E. Lepskogo, A.N. Raikova. Moscow, Kogito-Tsentr, 2018, 320 p.

5. Kupryashin G.L., Shramm A.E. O printsipakh datatsentrizma, setetsentrizma i komandnotsentrizma v kontekste informatizatsii gosudarstvennogo upravleniya [On Principles of Data, Network, and Chain-Of-Command Centricity in the Context of Digital Governance]. Gosudarstvennoe upravlenie. Elektronnyi vestnik, vyp. 76, 2019, October.

6. Zatsarinnyi A.A., Il’in N.I., Kolin K.K., et al. Situatsionnye tsentry razvitiya v polisub”ektnoi srede [Situational Development Centers in a Multi-subject Environment]. Problemy upravleniya, 2017, no 5, pp. 31–42.

7. Kaplan R., Norton D. Strategicheskie karty. Transformatsiya nematerial’nykh aktivov v material’nye rezul’taty [Strategic Maps. Converting Intangible Assets into Tangible Results]. Moscow, Olimp-Biznes, 2005, 512 p.

8. Kaplan R., Norton D. Sbalansirovannaya sistema pokazatelei. Ot strategii k deistviyu [The Balanced Scorecard. From Strategy to Action]. Moscow, Olimp-Biznes, 2017, 320 p.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.22-35

The article discusses a promising and well-proven tool for analyzing economic relations in socio-economic systems, which is actively used all over the world — the matrix of financial flows. The paper identifies the main areas of its application and briefly describes the history of its development in the world and specifically for Russia. The author also features the process of constructing a matrix for 12 economic regions of our country by types of economic activity. In the course of filling with statistical data the problem of assessing the volume of interregional trade was identified, which made it necessary to undertake an additional research, the results of which are presented in the article. In conclusion an example of practical use of the constructed matrix as an independent tool, as well as part of a more complex economic and mathematical model, is demonstrated

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23

The article is continuing the research “Modelling and Assessment of Russia’s National Power”, dedicated to calculating the index of national power, which is currently the most informative and popular indicator in the world that integrally characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and allows at the same time to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with the other countries’ level. The research results were published in the “Economic Strategies” magazine No. 2 for 2020. [1].

If the national power of the state, in fact, determines its potential capabilities and mainly gross indicators are used for the

calculation, then the national security indicators are calculated on the basis of normalized values (as a rule, per capita) and witness the development level of one or another component of the country’s socio-ecologic and economic system, as well as efficiency of using the existing potential. It should be reminded that in terms of the National Integral Strength Index, which includes many components, Russia ranks fourth in the world, slightly behind India. In this article, using the methods of multivariate statistical analysis, we’ll calculate the national security indicators of the UN member states, also defining the position of Russia, but in addition, we’ll also estimate the threshold values for all the factors of national security considered in the work. In the last part of the paper, we’ll give a medium-term forecast of national security

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.168.2020.6-19

The article analyzes the world experience of assessing national strength, which is the most informative and popular indicator characterizing the combined national security potential of a particular country, allowing to compare the level of its military power and socio-economic development with other countries. Modeling and evaluating the national strength indicator is extremely important for adjusting strategic documents related to the long-term development of a country, as well as to its foreign policy. In many countries, the national security indicator is assessed by narrow circle of experts or through averaged survey results from a wider range of respondents. The disadvantage of this approach lies in subjectivity, and eventually, in an unreliable estimate. The authors provide a scientifically based methodology for modeling and assessing national power. In forming the components of the national strength integral indicator, key target indicators are used, which are established in the strategic planning documents of Russia. It should be also noted that they contain indicators that are not used by foreign researchers (for example, indicators related to the territory, population, industrial production, energy resources and many others). Results of calculating the integral indicators of national strength, obtained through convolution using factor analysis of group indices, show that at the moment Russia is a world leader (at the level of 3-4 places among 193 countries — members of the UN)