Author page: Albert Bakhtizin

Strategic Prospects of the Demographic Component of Russia’s National Strength

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.38-53

Demographic situation largely determines the strategic prospects of our country in the context of fierce multifactorial competition between various countries of the world and their bilateral and multilateral alliances. The ar ticle examines dynamics of the Russian population trends, individual causes of male excess mor tality, the main factors for increasing the birth rate and also provides a quantitative assessment of the ef fectiveness of some of the above. To assess the consequences an agent-based demographic model of Russia was used and a sof tware package, developed jointly with researchers from China, was applied to make a long-term forecast of our country’s population.


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2. Asel’ Gereikhanova. Vladimir Putin poruchil v 2023 godu dobit’sya rosta zarplat, rozhdaemosti i prodolzhitel’nosti zhizni [Vladimir Putin Instructed to Achieve an Increase in Wages, birth Rates and Life Expectancy in 2023]. Rossiiskaya gazeta, 2023, 29 yanvarya, available at:

3. Demografiya [Demography]. Rosstat, available at:

4. Andreev E. M., Darskii L. E., Khar’kova T. L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993.

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6. Makarov V. L., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Khabriev B. R. Natsional’naya sila stran mira: otsenka i prognoz [National Strength of the Countries in the World:

Evaluation and Forecast]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6(186), pp. 38–51, DOI:

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8. Uroven’ smertnosti: Sravnitel’naya informatsiya po stranam [Mortality Rates: Comparative Information by Country], available at:

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10. Makarov V. L., Nigmatulin R. I., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Sushko E. D., Sidorenko M.Yu. Tsifrovoi dvoinik (iskusstvennoe obshchestvo) sotsial’noekonomicheskoi

sistemy Rossii — platforma dlya eksperimentov v sfere upravleniya demograficheskimi protsessami [The Digital Twin (Artificial Society) of the Socio-Economic System of Russia is a Platform for Experiments in the Field of Managing Demographic Processes]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no

2(182), pp. 6–19, DOI:

11. Chislo rodivshikhsya (bez mertvorozhdennykh) za god [Number of Births (Excluding Stillbirths) per Year]. EMISS. Gosudarstvennaya statistika, available at:

Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

Key parameters of attacks directions on the Russian economy and forecasts of the expected results, which previously have inspired confidence in Western states that political regime would inevitability fall, which stimulated the US and EU sanctions activity, were developed by a number of authoritative Western expert structures. Western strategies for collapsing the Russian economy in 2022–2023 with the help of sanctions, formed on the basis of these forecasts, did not bring the desired result. At the same time, alternative forecasts of a group of Russian scientists from the CEMI RAS and their Chinese colleagues on stability of the economies of Russia and China in the event of a friendly policy in the context of trade wars with the US and the EU, made in 2019, were fully confirmed. At the core of these forecasts there are analytical tools based on agent modeling.


1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

3. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, vol. 90, no 2, pp. 169–179.

4. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Sovremennye instrumenty otsenki posledstvii mirovykh torgovykh voin [Modern Tools for Assessing the Effects of World Trade Wars]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2019, vol. 89, no 7, pp. 745–754.

5. Tsigas M., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Mahlstein K. Potential economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo., 2022, available at:

6. Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 2022, no 45, pp. 3344–3383, available at:

7. Bryan R., Johnson G., Sytsma T., Priebe M. Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022, available at:

8. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen, Benjamin Kett. Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper. 2023. No. WP 23/73.

Hybrid Wars in the Macroeconomic Supersystem of the XXI Century

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6-23

We do care about what the foreseeable future will be… The recent period has clearly shown that expectations of W estern experts regarding the planned collapse of Russian and Chinese economies have not materialized. The ar ticle analyzes the main pressure tools and strategies of the main global politics actors on peripheral countries in order to solve the accumulated problems associated with increased debts and the need for fur ther trade expansion. Aggregated forecast scenarios for the situation development in relation to the GDP growth/fall of the leading countries of the world are structured.

The authors’ calculations proved that, despite the risks and threats of fur ther sanctions escalation and other restrictions, the implemented macroeconomic policy of Russia and China ensures preser vation of their key socio-economic indicators, providing national sovereignty.


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National Strength of the Countries in the World: Evaluation and Forecast


The present paper follows up an earlier study on modeling and assessing the national strength of the world countries. This integral index is the most informative and popular indicator in the world that characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and at the same time makes it possible to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with similar indicators of other states.

In the past national strength calculations were carried out by well-known political figures, such as foreign policy strategist and director (from 1975 to 2013) of the main Office of Net Assessment (ONA) of the US Department of Defence, Andrew Marshall [1], founder of political realism, Nicholas John Spekeman [2], one of the leading US foreign policy experts, Hans Morgenthau [3], founder of neorealism theory Kenneth Neil Waltz [4], author of the theory of offensive realism John Mearsheimer [5] and others. To date, dozens of methods for assessing national strength have been developed, the first of which was put forward in 1741. In the article first of all we’ll consider the most well-known foreign results and then present our own ones. In our opinion, it is important to make calculations of the integral indicator of national strength on an ongoing basis, as well as to compare our country’s potential with alternative estimates of analytical centers of geopolitical opponents.


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Modeling the Consequences of a Nuclear Strike


The risks of increasing international tension have sharply exacerbated the possibility of a nuclear conflict. The main geopolitical players in the international arena have actually recognized the possibility and even expediency of using nuclear weapons. In this context, the need to simulate the consequences of a nuclear strike in order to prepare for emergencies of a critical nature has become extremely urgent. The present article analyzes foreign experience of using digital simulators to this end. The authors outline Russian views on applying agent-based simulation methods for this purpose in the analysis of non-military (civilian) aspects of a nuclear blow effects.



1. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Podgotovka sistemy gosudarstvennogo upravleniya Rossii k sverkhkriticheskim situatsiyam prirodnogo i tekhnogennogo kharaktera [Preparing the Public Administration System of Russia for Supercritical Situations of Natural and Man-made Nature]. Problemy upravleniya bezopasnost’yu slozhnykh sistem: Materialy XXIX Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, 15 dekabrya 2021 g. [Problems of Safety Management of Complex Systems: Proceedings of the XXIX International Scientific-practical Conference. Moscow, December 15, 2021]. Moscow, Institut problem upravleniya im. V.A. Trapeznikova RAN, pp. 99–103.

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3. Moiseev N.N., Aleksandrov V.V., Tarko A.M. Chelovek i biosfera: Opyt sistemnogo analiza i eksperimenty s modelyami [Man and the Biosphere: The Experience of System Analysis and Experiments with Models]. Moscow, Nauka, 1985, 271 p.

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9. Velikhov E., Kokoshin A. Yadernoe oruzhie i dilemmy mezhdunarodnoi bezopasnosti [Nuclear Weapons and International Security Dilemmas]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1985, no 4, p. 20.

The Digital Twin (Artificial Society) of the Socio-Economic System of Russia is a Platform for Experiments in the Field of Managing Demographic Processes


One of the most promising tools for monitoring and predicting social processes are agent-based models, which are widely used abroad. Their advantage lies in the consideration of the system under study at the level of its individual individuals, which increases the realism of these computer-based assessment methods. In Russia, this direction is also developing, although not so actively. The article discusses the dynamics of the population of Russia, as well as the factors of increasing the birth rate, successful examples of the practical implementation of agent models for studying social processes, a brief description of the model we developed, which includes 146 million agents, is given. With the help of this tool, a forecast of the population of Russia and an assessment of the impact on this indicator of some measures aimed at improving the demographic situation were obtained.


1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I. Modelirovanie i otsenka natsional’noi sily Rossii [Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 2, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI:

2. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI:

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Development of the Strategic Management System in the Context of Digitalization


The introduction of digital technologies has a significant impact on the development of the entire public administration system and its most important element — the strategic planning system. Modern digital intelligent technologies and the work of government bodies based on the advanced achievements of management science and the unity of methodological approaches make it possible to raise the strategic planning system to a qualitatively new level. The key to success is the coordinated development of both the public administration system itself and the nationwide information and control systems. The authors, based on the analysis of the content of strategic management activities and the information used for this activity, formulated general approaches to the choice of information technologies to ensure the implementation of the stages of strategic  management.


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3. Kudryashova E.V. Informatsionnye tekhnologii dlya strategicheskogo planirovaniya v Rossii: etapy razvitiya i perspektivy [Information Technology for Strategic Planning in Russia: Development Stages and Prospects]. Gosudarstvennaya vlast’ i mestnoe samoupravlenie, 2021, no 2, pp. 36–40.

4. Andreeva Z.K., Baryshnikov P.Yu., Zhurenkov D.A., et al. Strategicheskoe tselepolaganie v situatsionnykh tsentrakh razvitiya [Strategic Goal-setting in Situational Development Centers]. Pod red. V.E. Lepskogo, A.N. Raikova. Moscow, Kogito-Tsentr, 2018, 320 p.

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6. Zatsarinnyi A.A., Il’in N.I., Kolin K.K., et al. Situatsionnye tsentry razvitiya v polisub”ektnoi srede [Situational Development Centers in a Multi-subject Environment]. Problemy upravleniya, 2017, no 5, pp. 31–42.

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Financial Flows Matrix — a Tool for Implementing the Country’s Economic Policy


The article discusses a promising and well-proven tool for analyzing economic relations in socio-economic systems, which is actively used all over the world — the matrix of financial flows. The paper identifies the main areas of its application and briefly describes the history of its development in the world and specifically for Russia. The author also features the process of constructing a matrix for 12 economic regions of our country by types of economic activity. In the course of filling with statistical data the problem of assessing the volume of interregional trade was identified, which made it necessary to undertake an additional research, the results of which are presented in the article. In conclusion an example of practical use of the constructed matrix as an independent tool, as well as part of a more complex economic and mathematical model, is demonstrated

National Security of Russia

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23

The article is continuing the research “Modelling and Assessment of Russia’s National Power”, dedicated to calculating the index of national power, which is currently the most informative and popular indicator in the world that integrally characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and allows at the same time to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with the other countries’ level. The research results were published in the “Economic Strategies” magazine No. 2 for 2020. [1].

If the national power of the state, in fact, determines its potential capabilities and mainly gross indicators are used for the

calculation, then the national security indicators are calculated on the basis of normalized values (as a rule, per capita) and witness the development level of one or another component of the country’s socio-ecologic and economic system, as well as efficiency of using the existing potential. It should be reminded that in terms of the National Integral Strength Index, which includes many components, Russia ranks fourth in the world, slightly behind India. In this article, using the methods of multivariate statistical analysis, we’ll calculate the national security indicators of the UN member states, also defining the position of Russia, but in addition, we’ll also estimate the threshold values for all the factors of national security considered in the work. In the last part of the paper, we’ll give a medium-term forecast of national security

Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.168.2020.6-19

The article analyzes the world experience of assessing national strength, which is the most informative and popular indicator characterizing the combined national security potential of a particular country, allowing to compare the level of its military power and socio-economic development with other countries. Modeling and evaluating the national strength indicator is extremely important for adjusting strategic documents related to the long-term development of a country, as well as to its foreign policy. In many countries, the national security indicator is assessed by narrow circle of experts or through averaged survey results from a wider range of respondents. The disadvantage of this approach lies in subjectivity, and eventually, in an unreliable estimate. The authors provide a scientifically based methodology for modeling and assessing national power. In forming the components of the national strength integral indicator, key target indicators are used, which are established in the strategic planning documents of Russia. It should be also noted that they contain indicators that are not used by foreign researchers (for example, indicators related to the territory, population, industrial production, energy resources and many others). Results of calculating the integral indicators of national strength, obtained through convolution using factor analysis of group indices, show that at the moment Russia is a world leader (at the level of 3-4 places among 193 countries — members of the UN)