Author page: Nikolay Ilyin

National Strength of the Countries in the World: Evaluation and Forecast


The present paper follows up an earlier study on modeling and assessing the national strength of the world countries. This integral index is the most informative and popular indicator in the world that characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and at the same time makes it possible to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with similar indicators of other states.

In the past national strength calculations were carried out by well-known political figures, such as foreign policy strategist and director (from 1975 to 2013) of the main Office of Net Assessment (ONA) of the US Department of Defence, Andrew Marshall [1], founder of political realism, Nicholas John Spekeman [2], one of the leading US foreign policy experts, Hans Morgenthau [3], founder of neorealism theory Kenneth Neil Waltz [4], author of the theory of offensive realism John Mearsheimer [5] and others. To date, dozens of methods for assessing national strength have been developed, the first of which was put forward in 1741. In the article first of all we’ll consider the most well-known foreign results and then present our own ones. In our opinion, it is important to make calculations of the integral indicator of national strength on an ongoing basis, as well as to compare our country’s potential with alternative estimates of analytical centers of geopolitical opponents.


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4. Waltz K.H. Theory of International Politics. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979.

5. Mearsheimer J.J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. N.Y., L., W.W. Norton & Company, 2001.

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National Security of Russia

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23

The article is continuing the research “Modelling and Assessment of Russia’s National Power”, dedicated to calculating the index of national power, which is currently the most informative and popular indicator in the world that integrally characterizes the aggregate potential of a particular country and allows at the same time to compare the level of its power and socio-economic development with the other countries’ level. The research results were published in the “Economic Strategies” magazine No. 2 for 2020. [1].

If the national power of the state, in fact, determines its potential capabilities and mainly gross indicators are used for the

calculation, then the national security indicators are calculated on the basis of normalized values (as a rule, per capita) and witness the development level of one or another component of the country’s socio-ecologic and economic system, as well as efficiency of using the existing potential. It should be reminded that in terms of the National Integral Strength Index, which includes many components, Russia ranks fourth in the world, slightly behind India. In this article, using the methods of multivariate statistical analysis, we’ll calculate the national security indicators of the UN member states, also defining the position of Russia, but in addition, we’ll also estimate the threshold values for all the factors of national security considered in the work. In the last part of the paper, we’ll give a medium-term forecast of national security

Modeling and Assessing the National Strength of Russia

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.168.2020.6-19

The article analyzes the world experience of assessing national strength, which is the most informative and popular indicator characterizing the combined national security potential of a particular country, allowing to compare the level of its military power and socio-economic development with other countries. Modeling and evaluating the national strength indicator is extremely important for adjusting strategic documents related to the long-term development of a country, as well as to its foreign policy. In many countries, the national security indicator is assessed by narrow circle of experts or through averaged survey results from a wider range of respondents. The disadvantage of this approach lies in subjectivity, and eventually, in an unreliable estimate. The authors provide a scientifically based methodology for modeling and assessing national power. In forming the components of the national strength integral indicator, key target indicators are used, which are established in the strategic planning documents of Russia. It should be also noted that they contain indicators that are not used by foreign researchers (for example, indicators related to the territory, population, industrial production, energy resources and many others). Results of calculating the integral indicators of national strength, obtained through convolution using factor analysis of group indices, show that at the moment Russia is a world leader (at the level of 3-4 places among 193 countries — members of the UN)