DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.36-38

Two shortcomings of our economy — poverty and the “free rider problem” — have the same origin — an exorbitant tax burden on wages. Mathematical modeling of the transition process from modern to transactional taxation, carried out by a group of Russian scientists, has shown that due to this transition, the country’s economy will begin to grow at a rate of 6–7% per year. And most importantly, the very concept of misery will disappear in the country and poverty will be reduced significantly.

References:

1. Eksperty predlozhili reshenie “problemy bezbiletnika” [Experts have Proposed a Solution to the “Free Rider Problem”]. RBK, 2022, 9 dekabrya, available at:

https://www.rbc.ru/economics/09/12/2022/63919fe19a79478d83afaf82.

2. Neravenstvo i bednost’ [Inequality and Poverty]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/13723.

3. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskii byulleten’. 2021 [Socio-economic Bulletin. 2021]. Pod red. A.V. Shcherbakova; Tsentr sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo prognozirovaniya

im. D.I. Mendeleeva, Sretenskii klub im. S.P. Kurdyumova. Moscow, Grifon, 2022.

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prognozirovaniya im. D.I. Mendeleeva, Sretenskii klub im. S.P. Kurdyumova. Moscow, Grifon, 2020.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.183.2022.26-37

In this paper, an attempt is made to develop a mathematical model of population growth, based on socio-economic factors of the development of the countries’ community, as well as population migration. The author presents intermediate results of his review where he studies economic community, characterized by a very uneven development of regions. Mathematical model is proposed in which a conditional “center” and “periphery” (“global city” and “world village”) are distinguished. From the analysis of the existing socio-economic conditions of development it follows that “periphery” traditionally acts as a demographic donor for the “center”. Examples of such systems include, in particular, relations of the EU-Baltic republics, the EU-Ukraine, and Russia–EAEU countries. As an explanatory principle, it is proposed to use the concept of “institutional trap”. From the mathematical model point of view, this means rigidly fixed coefficients of connection between the system elements implementing one-way connection (toward the “center”). Possible mechanisms, influencing the dynamics of the system through adopting appropriate managerial decisions, are discussed. Obtained results prove the importance of adequate mathematical models for optimizing the strategic management of society.

Источники:

1. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 1 dekabrya 2016 g. N 642 “O Strategii nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Executive Order of the President of the Russian Federation dated December 1, 2016 No. 642 “On the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/41449.

2. Complex Systems and Society — Modeling and Simulation. Springer, 2013, available at:  https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-4614-7242-1.

3. Solozhentsev E.D. Tsifrovoe upravlenie gosudarstvom i ekonomikoi [Digital Management of the State and Economy]. Upravlenie i planirovanie v ekonomike, 2018, no 1(17), pp. 136–153.

4. Federal’nyi zakon ot 28 iyunya 2014 g. N 172-FZ “O strategicheskom planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Federal Law of June 28, 2014 No. 172-FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/38630.

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7. Unido Technology Foresight Manual. United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Vienna, 2005, vol. 1, p. 8.

8. Pereslegin S.B. Budushchee kak proekt: krizis futurologii [The Future as a Project: Crisis of Futurology]. Intellekt, voobrazhenie, intuitsiya: razmyshleniya o gorizontakh soznaniya (metafizicheskii i psikhologicheskii opyt). Saint-Petersburg, 2001, no 10.

In work integrated (synergetic) approach to a problem of evolution of national (state) idea is used. In him mathematical modeling, the dynamic theory of information and the concept of civilizations are combined. It allows to define accurately the concept “national idea” and to track his role in evolution of society. The special attention is paid to a situation in modern Russia.

A good model can give a reasonable forecast in the field of its competence, subject to maintaining the existing economic relations, can identify threats to established order, but it does not allow to predict what will replace this order after the crisis.

Today Synergetics is quickly integrating into the sphere of the humanities. Particularly relevant today are anti-crisis synergetic technologies.