Modeling Depopulation Trends in the Community of Countries with Different Economic Development Levels


In this paper, an attempt is made to develop a mathematical model of population growth, based on socio-economic factors of the development of the countries’ community, as well as population migration. The author presents intermediate results of his review where he studies economic community, characterized by a very uneven development of regions. Mathematical model is proposed in which a conditional “center” and “periphery” (“global city” and “world village”) are distinguished. From the analysis of the existing socio-economic conditions of development it follows that “periphery” traditionally acts as a demographic donor for the “center”. Examples of such systems include, in particular, relations of the EU-Baltic republics, the EU-Ukraine, and Russia–EAEU countries. As an explanatory principle, it is proposed to use the concept of “institutional trap”. From the mathematical model point of view, this means rigidly fixed coefficients of connection between the system elements implementing one-way connection (toward the “center”). Possible mechanisms, influencing the dynamics of the system through adopting appropriate managerial decisions, are discussed. Obtained results prove the importance of adequate mathematical models for optimizing the strategic management of society.


1. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 1 dekabrya 2016 g. N 642 “O Strategii nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Executive Order of the President of the Russian Federation dated December 1, 2016 No. 642 “On the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at:

2. Complex Systems and Society — Modeling and Simulation. Springer, 2013, available at:

3. Solozhentsev E.D. Tsifrovoe upravlenie gosudarstvom i ekonomikoi [Digital Management of the State and Economy]. Upravlenie i planirovanie v ekonomike, 2018, no 1(17), pp. 136–153.

4. Federal’nyi zakon ot 28 iyunya 2014 g. N 172-FZ “O strategicheskom planirovanii v Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Federal Law of June 28, 2014 No. 172-FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at:

5. Eberlin M. Foresight: How the Chemistry of Life Reveals Planning and Purpose. Discovery Institute, 2019.

6. Gaponenko N.V. Forsait. Teoriya. Metodologiya. Opyt [Foresight. Theory. Methodology. Experience]. Monografiya. Moscow, Yuniti — Danab, 2008, 239 p.

7. Unido Technology Foresight Manual. United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Vienna, 2005, vol. 1, p. 8.

8. Pereslegin S.B. Budushchee kak proekt: krizis futurologii [The Future as a Project: Crisis of Futurology]. Intellekt, voobrazhenie, intuitsiya: razmyshleniya o gorizontakh soznaniya (metafizicheskii i psikhologicheskii opyt). Saint-Petersburg, 2001, no 10.

The Avant-Guarde Stratification of Nations

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.183.2022.16-25

In modern economic thinking, there is an unclear division of the population into rich, poor and middle class. This structuring originated in the time of Euripides and Aristotle. However, there is still no general method for determining the parameters of the middle class, although the dynamics of growth and development of national economies significantly depends on it. The author proposes to stratify the population by the criterion of GDP per capita, calculated by purchasing power parity. At the same time, the author determines the parameters of the avant-garde, middle and rear-guard strata of the nation on the route of economic development using the proposed development gamma scale.


1. Global Wealth Report 2015, Credit Suisse: Table 1. Middle-class share of all adults. Credit Suisse. P. 32. URL: global-wealth-report-2015.pdf.

2. Putin V.V. O srednem klasse i dokhodakh naseleniya: Interv’yu TASS. 18 marta 2020 g. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.runts/president/news/63007.

3. Ponomarev V. Antropologicheskaya politekonomiya: kontseptsiya teorii samorazvitiya [Anthropological Political Economy: the Concept of Self-Development Theory]. Saarbryuken, LAP, 2013, 60 p.

4. Ponomarev V.P. Polimorfnaya gamma-shkala razvitiya geoekonomiki [Polymorphic Gamma-Scale of Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 1, pp. 106–111, DOI:

5. Evripid. Umolyayushchie: Tragedii [Pleading: Tragedies]. Vol. 1. Literaturnye pamyatniki [Literary memorials]. Moscow, Nauka, Ladomir, 1999.

6. Rossiiskii statisticheskii ezhegodnik. 2019 [Russian Statistical Yearbook. 2019]. Moscow, Rosstat, 2019, p. 163.

Innovative Economy and Economic Growth

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.179.2021.102-107

The article examines relationship between innovation and economic development in the framework of new technological structures, as well as implementation of an innovative macro-strategy in the context of modern credit and banking system, supported and stimulated by the state and by transnational corporations. The function of an entrepreneur is to contribute to prosperity of both an individual business and the country’s economy as a whole. In the absence of entrepreneurs, budget financing of projects often involves irresponsible decision-making (economically ineffective), bureaucracy and business degeneration. Systemic support for the development of entrepreneurial innovation is needed, and macroeconomic management tools should be stimulatory. Modern legal regulation does not comply with new technological possibilities.

Technological change can have both positive and negative social consequences. Growing unemployment is considered one of the serious social threats. A well-thought-out state policy should be aimed at neutralizing the negative social consequences of the economy technological transition. It is necessary to use international experience in implementing credit issue in order to stimulate investments in innovative sectors of economy. The role of the Central Bank in targeting the growth of corporate incomes and incomes of the population is important, as well as implementation of the program for innovative development of the economy under the state support.

Spatial Development Strategy: Identification Problems of the Russian Promising Economic Specializations


The Spatial Development Strategy (Strategy) needs a radical overhaul, and the priority actions should detail the promising economic specializations of the Russian regions. Methodological and substantive gaps are actively discussed by analysts and the academic community. At the same time, the fact of the absence of one of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation dropped out of account, and therefore, the detailed elaboration of promising activities contains only 84 out of 85 regions. In the presented study, a quantitative analysis of promising economic specializations of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation was made based on a comparison of the Strategy data with the NACE. There is given a constructive criticism of the applied system for identifying the industry specialization of the subjects of the Russian Federation based on the NACE’ approach. There are done recommendations on primary measures in identifying the industry specialization of the Russian state. The results of the study confirm the need for a radical revision of the classification of industry specialization of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation

Economic prerequisites for assessing the level of social tension in rural areas

DOI: 10.33917/mic-2.91.2020.75-87

The study is aimed at studying the factors of influence of economic preconditions on the level of social tension in rural areas. Methods. The study analyzes various factors that affect the development of rural areas, with an emphasis on economic impact, and determines the criteria necessary for assessing the level of social tension. The study is based on an analysis of the state of rural areas of the Perm region and the population living in them, based on statistical indicators that characterize them. Data on the level and quality of life of the population, demographic situation, unemployment, crime and migration are analyzed. Scientific novelty. Taking into account the relevance of the research topic, the authors come to a reasonable conclusion about the need to analyze and assess the level of social tension in rural areas. Results and practical significance.

On the basis of the conducted analysis, the characteristic features of the current state of the rural population of the Perm territory are highlighted and described. Factors that influence social tension in these territories are identified, and problems that need to be addressed in order to avoid negative consequences of social tension are identified. Taking into account the relevance of the considered issues for any agricultural territory of our country, the approach proposed by the authors will be interesting and universal in practical application by specialists in the field of state and municipal management, agriculture, and economy of both Federal and state authorities of the subjects of the Russian Federation and local self-government bodies.

Foreign Trade and Investments as Political Development Factors (on the Example of the Western Balkans)

DOI: 10.33917/es-8.166.2019.66-75

The article presents analysis of the dynamics and structure of foreign economic relations of the Western Balkans countries, considers the specifics of foreign infrastructure investment projects, evaluates the importance of foreign economic relations for socio-political institutions. Scientific novelty of the study is determined by application of least squares methods and gravitational modelling. To identify factors determining the vector of economic cooperation, the authors have analyzed macroeconomic data, as well as the trade flows dynamics: gravitational model of foreign trade was taken as the basis. The authors assume that many problems of the modern socio-economic and political development of the region stem from its past, namely from reproduction of both individual elements and the system characteristics of historical models. In particular, the analysis confirmed historical dependence of the political and economic development of the Western Balkans on external players. Historical determinism of the foreign policy course (identified through institutional analysis) coexists with economic factors arising the incentives of neoclassical economic theory

What Kind of Program Russia Needs, or a Little About Upcoming Reforms

#6. The Charm of Unattainable Peaks
What Kind of Program Russia Needs, or a Little About Upcoming Reforms

The article analyzes four programs of economic development of Russia, proposed by the Center for Strategic Research (CSR), headed by A.L. Kudrin, Institute of Growth Economics after P.A. Stolypin, created by “Stolypin Club” non-governmental organization of experts and by “Delovaya Rossiya” public organization headed by B.Y. Titov. In addition to these two programs, there is a program of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, established under the leadership of Minister M.S. Oreshkin, and the program “Principles of economic development strategy of Russia until 2030” of the Industry Committee under the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI), headed by a well-known industrialist, organizer of the Moscow Economic Forum K.A. Babkin. The programs of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development and the CSR represent position of the liberal part of the country’s economic elite, including the monetary authorities. The program of Babkin’s CCI represents the industrial elite of the country, and the “Growth Program” by Boris Titov — position of the most active part of the population — Russian business. Based on the analysis and consideration of the proposed programs we will try to answer the question: what can the Russian population expect as a result of implementation of this or that program and the perspective they forecast?

On the System of Goals and Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Eurasian Economic Union

#7. Hysteresis Loop
On the System of Goals and Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Eurasian Economic Union

The present scientific article, based on applying geo-civilizational reproductive-cyclical macro-model, proposes a System of Goals (Goals tree) for sustainable development of the Eurasian civilization and the main strategy directions to achieve them. On the basis of the World Bank statistics an analysis by five factors (coordinated with the structure of civilizations genotype) is carried out: socio-demographic, agrifood, energyecological, scientific-technological and economic.

Economic Development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Member States in the International Ratings System

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
Economic Development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Member States in the International Ratings System

One of the information sources for analyzing and evaluating the countries’ competitive positions are the reports of international rating agencies and institutions. In 2016 the Eurasian Economic Commission prepared the analytical report assessing the level of economic development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Member States in the international ratings system. In the framework of the work carried out not only the position of each country was analyzed, but the EAEC consolidated position as a weighted average value in proportion to the contribution of the Member State in the aggregate GDP of the Union was also calculated.

Pyotr Stolypin — Realized and Missed Opportunities in Reforming Russia

#6. Territory Without Aims?
Pyotr Stolypin — Realized and Missed Opportunities in Reforming Russia

The article is dedicated to the reforms of the outstanding Russian statesman Pyotr Stolypin. It reflects realized and missed opportunities to reform the complex socio- economic system of the Russian empire, its economy, social structure , the Army, the Navy, the institutional sphere in general. The article the necessity and the possibility of applying some of the reform approaches and methods of the early 20st century in Russia to the modern practice of reforming and developing the domestic economy.