The "Economic Strategies" journal

2023 #1 2023 Unrequited Future...

Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.


[1–15] see No. 6 (186)/2022, p. 25.

16. Ageev A.I., Glaz’ev S.Yu., Mityaev D.A., Zolotareva O.A., Pereslegin S.B. Postroenie modeli prognoza kursa valyut na dolgosrochnom i kratkosrochnom gorizontakh [Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6 (186), pp. 16–25, available at: DOI:

17. Dubrova T.A. Analiz vremennykh dannykh [Time Data Analysis]. Analiz dannykh. Moscow, Yurait, 2019, pp. 397–459.

18. Boks Dzh, Dzhenkins G. Analiz vremennyh ryadov [Time Series Analysis]. Prognozirovanie i upravlenie. Moscow, Mir, 1974, 406 p.

19. Alzheev A.V., Kochkarov R.A. Sravnitel’nyi analiz prognoznykh modelei ARIMA i LSTM na primere aktsii rossiiskikh kompanii [Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and LSTM Forecasting Models on the Example of Russian Companies’ Stocks]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2020, no 24(1), pp. 14–23,
DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-14-23.

20. Mhitaryan S.V., Danchenok L.A. Prognozirovanie prodazh s pomoshch’yu adaptivnyh statisticheskih metodov [Sales Forecasting with the Help of Adaptive Statistical Methods]. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya, 2014, no 9-4, pp. 818–822.

21. Pilyugina A.V., Bojko A.A. Ispol’zovanie modelej ARIMA dlya prognozirovaniya valyutnogo kursa [Using ARIMA Models for Exchange Rate Forecasting]. Prikaspijskij zhurnal: upravlenie i vysokie tekhnologii, 2015, no 4, pp. 249-267.

22. Ruppert D., Matteson D.S. Statistics and Data Analysis for Financial Engineering. Springer, 2015, available at:

23. Garcia F., Guijarro F., Moya I., Oliver J. Estimating returns and conditional volatility: A comparison between the ARMA-GARCH-M models and the backpropagation neural network. International Journal of Complex Systems in Science, 2012, no 1(2), pp. 21–26.

24. Maniatis P. Forecasting the Exchange Rate Between Euro And USD: Probabilistic Approach Versus ARIMA And Exponential Smoothing Techniques. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 2012, no 28(2), pp. 171–192, available at:

Changing Technological Development: Approaches, Methods, Problems and Prospects

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.26-35

Technological changes form the basis of modern economic development, however, in order to study their influence and features, as well as to develop control actions, it is necessary to adequately measure the level of technological effectiveness of the economy. The purpose of the study is to identify the limitations of existing approaches and methods for measuring technological development, indicating what prospects there are in terms of their improvement or the development of new ways to assess the level of manufacturability and emerging technologies. The methodology is based on the economic theory of technological development, statistical approaches to measuring the level of technological effectiveness of the economy, performance assessment, and comparative analysis is applied. The result is reduced to a reasonable position that the existing methods for measuring the level of manufacturability essentially do not reveal the true content of this concept, do not reflect the manufacturability of the economy. Thus, it is required to revise and introduce new accounting, measurement and statistical procedures covering the issues of technological development. The measuring apparatus for technological modes, the “knowledge economy” also requires perfection, which is proposed in this study.

By modes, it is important to measure the distribution of policy instruments and the structure of technologies in each mode, for which accounting for specific types of technologies and the construction of technological maps can be used. The “knowledge economy”, which symbolizes a high level of technological development, needs to be measured in its purest form by the volume of sectors responsible for the creation, transfer, replication and application of advanced knowledge. Evaluation of productive jobs needs to be revised — from measuring wages in the workplace, as it is today, to measuring the level of its automation and intellectualization.


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3. Sukharev O.S. Ekonomika tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya [Economics of Technological Developmen]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika, 2008, 480 p.

4. Khelpman E. Zagadka ekonomicheskogo rosta [The Mystery of Economic Growth]. Moscow, Izdatel’stvo instituta Gaidara, 2011, 240 p.

5. Shumpeter I.A. Teoriya ekonomicheskogo razvitiya. Kapitalizm, sotsializm i demokratiya [Theory of Economic Development. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy]. Moscow, Eksmo, 2007, 864 p.

6. Antonelli C., Gehringer А. Technological change, rent and income inequalities: A Schumpeterian approach. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2017, vol. 115, pp. 85–98.

Poverty and the “Free Rider Problem” in Russian Society. Interrelationship and Solutions

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.36-38

Two shortcomings of our economy — poverty and the “free rider problem” — have the same origin — an exorbitant tax burden on wages. Mathematical modeling of the transition process from modern to transactional taxation, carried out by a group of Russian scientists, has shown that due to this transition, the country’s economy will begin to grow at a rate of 6–7% per year. And most importantly, the very concept of misery will disappear in the country and poverty will be reduced significantly.


1. Eksperty predlozhili reshenie “problemy bezbiletnika” [Experts have Proposed a Solution to the “Free Rider Problem”]. RBK, 2022, 9 dekabrya, available at:

2. Neravenstvo i bednost’ [Inequality and Poverty]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at:

3. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskii byulleten’. 2021 [Socio-economic Bulletin. 2021]. Pod red. A.V. Shcherbakova; Tsentr sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo prognozirovaniya

im. D.I. Mendeleeva, Sretenskii klub im. S.P. Kurdyumova. Moscow, Grifon, 2022.

4. Shcherbakov A.V., Rumyantsev V.Yu., Oleskin A.V. Setevaya ekonomika [Network Economy]. Pod red. A.V. Shcherbakova; Tsentr sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo

prognozirovaniya im. D.I. Mendeleeva, Sretenskii klub im. S.P. Kurdyumova. Moscow, Grifon, 2020.

5. Shcherbakov A.V., Malkov S.Yu. Mobilizatsionnaya ekonomika Rossii [Mobilization Economy of Russia]. Moscow, Grifon, 2022.

6. Smit A. Issledovanie o prirode i prichinakh bogatstva narodov [Survey on the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations]. Kn. 1–3. Moscow, Azbuka, 2019.

Russian Overcoming of Global Value-Based Segregation

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.39-45

The article provides a modern answer to Adam Smith’s classic question on how exactly the vital assets of peoples are created in the states. It is shown that vital assets in the states are originally created through extraction (for a human), production (for a human) and imputation (into a human), which are three qualitatively different main types of vital creativity.

This results in identification of three main patterns of life: extractive, productive and imputative. It is argued that with any basic form of life creativity, creation of a changing variety of life assets in the states is carried out mainly due to inclusion of a larger mental component in all creative chains.

However, creation of a larger mental capacity can occur only through the concomitant and inevitable expenditure of both the same energy and the same information. Inevitable need for this mentioned expenditure (consumption) is the creative “damnation” of mankind.

Strategies for Russia’s exit from modern interstate exploitation are described. It is а proved that strategically and epochally the best way for Russia to get out of this system of exploitation is to recreate a sovereign, full-fledged three-pattern vitality, where combination of the main life patterns satisfies the life code that is historically inherent in Russia.

It is shown that due to the presence of the mentioned “damnation”, modern Russia has got an energy “lever” that is sufficient (if used correctly) to create its own anti-segregation macro-regional cooperants without pattern-based segregation.


1. Zakharov V.K. Nomologiya. Mir i Rossiya. Kto vinovat? i Chto delat’? [Nomology. World and Russia. Who is guilty? and What to do?]. Moscow, Rodina, 2022, 668 p.

2. Anilionis G.P., Zotova N.A. Global’nyi mir: edinyi i razdelennyi. Evolyutsiya teorii globalizatsii [Global World: United and Divided. Evolution of Globalization Theories]. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2005, 676 p.

3. Bolduin R. Velikaya konvergentsiya. Informatsionnye tekhnologii i novaya globalizatsiya [Great Convergence. Information Technology and New Globalization]. Moscow, Delo, 2018, 415 p.

4. Dobren’kov V.I. Globalizatsiya. Sushchnost’, proyavleniya i sotsial’nye posledstviya [Globalization. Essence, Manifestations and Social Consequences]. Moscow, Akademicheskii proekt, 2018. 636 s.

5. Porter M.E. Mezhdunarodnaya konkurentsiya. Konkurentnye preimushchestva stran [International Competition. Competitive Advantages of Countries]. Moscow, Al’pina Pablisher, 2016, 947 p.

6. Men’shikov S.M. Anatomiya rossiiskogo kapitalizma [Anatomy of Russian Capitalism]. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2004, 432 p.

7. Ryazanov V.T. (Ne)Real’nyi kapitalizm. Politekonomiya krizisa i ego posledstvii dlya mirovogo khozyaistva i Rossii [(Un) Real Capitalism. Political Economy of the Crisis and of Its Consequences for the World Economy and Russia]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2016, 695 p.

8. Fedorenko N.P. Rossiya na rubezhe vekov [Russia at the Turn of the Century]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2003, 727 p.

Energy Security of the Member States of the Eurasian Economic Union

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.46-55

This article is devoted to ensuring the energy security of the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (hereinafter referred to as the EAEU). Certain issues of ensuring energy security are considered; It is noted that the key goal of ensuring the energy security of the Union should be, first of all, the maintenance of the energy resource base of the Union.

The acts of the EAEU bodies and the Member States devoted to ensuring energy security were considered.

It is noted that the term “energy security” is used in many international legal acts, but there is no monotonous content of this definition in international law.

The author proposed to develop a number of documents aimed at improving the energy security system.


1. Likhachev V.L. Energeticheskaya bezopasnost’ i napravleniya ee obespecheniya v EAES [Energy Security and Directions for its Provision in the EAEU]. Energeticheskaya politika, 2017, no 1, pp. 47–55.

2. Abakumova M.M. Energeticheskaya bezopasnost’ EAES: vyzovy i riski [EAEU Energy Security: Challenges and Risks]. Innovatsii i investitsii, 2018, no 1, pp. 89–92.

3. R eshenie Soveta glav pravitel’stv SNG ot 29 maya 2020 g. “O Strategii ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Sodruzhestva Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv na period do2030 goda” [Decision of the Council of Heads of Government of the CIS dated May 29, 2020 “On the Economic Development Strategy of the Commonwealth of Independent States for the Period up to 2030”]. Edinyi reestr pravovykh aktov i drugikh dokumentov Sodruzhestva Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv, available at:

4. Reshenie Soveta glav pravitel’stv SNG ot 1 iyunya 2018 g. “O Kontseptsii sotrudnichestva gosudarstv — uchastnikov SNG v oblasti innovatsionnogo razvitiya energetiki i razrabotki peredovykh energeticheskikh tekhnologii i Plane pervoocherednykh meropriyatii po ee realizatsii” [Concept of Cooperation between the CIS Member States in the Field of Innovative Development of the Energy Sector and the Development of Advanced Energy Technologies and the Plan of Priority Actions for its Implementation”]. Edinyi reestr pravovykh aktov i drugikh dokumentov Sodruzhestva Nezavisimykh Gosudarstv, available at:

5. Postanovlenie N 8-15 Parlamentskoi Assamblei Organizatsii Dogovora o kollektivnoi bezopasnosti “O proekte Rekomendatsii po garmonizatsii zakonodatel’stva gosudarstv — chlenov ODKB v sfere ukrepleniya energeticheskoi bezopasnosti” [Resolution No. 8-15 of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization “On the Draft Recommendations for the harmonization of the Legislation of the CSTO Member States in the Field of Strengthening Energy Security”]. Sait Parlamentskoi Assamblei Organizatsii Dogovora o kollektivnoi bezopasnosti, available at:

6. Postanovlenie PA ODKB ot 13 oktyabrya 2017 g. N 10-4.1 “O model’nom zakone ODKB ‘Ob energeticheskoi bezopasnosti’” [Resolution of the CSTO PA dated October 13, 2017 No. 10-4.1 “On the CSTO Model Law “On Energy Security”]. Sait Parlamentskoi Assamblei Organizatsii Dogovora o kollektivnoi bezopasnosti, available at:

Digital Platform for Managing Scientific and Technological Development within Economic Cooperation Framework

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.56-69

In the circumstances of sanctions-related economic and scientific-technical blockade, the need to build digital mechanisms for managing import substitution processes on the basis of planning and coordinating competencies, similar to the competencies that the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology had, has sharply actualized. It is proposed to use intelligent digital platforms to control the development of science and technology based on the principles of the Soviet information network OGAS and EGSVC projects. The authors of the article substantiate necessity to apply digital information and communication technologies and computing services at various levels of management for innovative agents of any form of ownership through creating and configurating multilayer information-management fields.


1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii [The World Community in the Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation]. Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, MNIIPU, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. Moscow, MNIIPU, April 21–22, 2022]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Rossiya v novoi ekonomicheskoi real’nosti [Russia in a New Economic Reality]. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, Assotsiatsiya “Analitika”, 2016, 460 p.

3. Grabchak E.P. Importozameshchenie v energetike Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsii [Import Substitution in the Russian Energy Sector in the Context of Sanctions]. Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, MNIIPU, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [Management of complex organizational and technical systems in conditions of supercritical situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference. Moscow, MNIIPU, April 21–22, 2022]. Moscow, MNIIPU, 2022, pp. 16–18.

4. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L., Chinaliev V.U., Epishkin I.I. Upravlenie razvitiem slozhnykh nauchno-tekhnicheskikh kompleksov na osnove intellektual’nykh tsifrovykh platform (realizatsiya kompetentsii Goskomiteta SSSR po nauke i tekhnike v usloviyakh tsifrovoi ekonomiki) [Managing the Development of Complex Scientific-technical Systems Based on Intelligent Digital Platforms (Implementation of the Competencies of the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology in Conditions of Digital Economy)]. Moscow, INES, 2023, 504 p.

5. Chinaliev V.U. Razvitie politiki importozameshcheniya v promyshlennosti Rossii [Developing Import Substitution Policy in the Russian industry]. Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, MNIIPU, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. Moscow, MNIIPU, April 21–22, 2022]. Moscow, MNIIPU, 2022.S. 50–53.

Discovery of Nanocorpuscular Mutagenesis and Prospects for its Application in Genetic Studies

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.78-85

Nanocorpuscular mutagenesis is the property of nanoparticles and/or nanomaterials to induce genetic changes or mutations.

Research on this newly discovered phenomenon will certainly expand the sphere of activity of geneticists and biologists, since scientists will have new tools at their disposal. Ideally, these studies will create a fundamentally new experimental basis for deeper understanding of the development processes in a living matter, and will complement our knowledge of what can and cannot be done with nature. In theoretical terms, it can also be admitted that the means of nanocorpuscular mutagenesis would pave a new way to obtaining and understanding such genetic and biological forms that favourably differ from those, which served as the basis for natural selection on our planet for hundreds of millions of years. From a practical point of view, one might expect that methodology of nanocorpuscular mutagenesis in combination with other progressive research methods will open up new interesting prospects in the field of genetic technologies, aimed, as is known, at solving such global, vital problems as:

– induction of hereditary immunity;

– fight against viral and oncological diseases;

– creation of new unique varieties of cultivated plants and animal breeds with such features that will be extremely useful and valuable for agricultural economy.

In other words, nanocorpuscular mutagenesis is likely to become another means of deep reformation of the fundamental apparatus of heredity and, as a result, transformation of the living systems’ ontology and will also make a valuable contribution to genetic science by discovering new, hitherto unknown phenomena and patterns.


1. Zakhidov S.T. Mutatsionnaya nanogenetika v sisteme nanotekhnologii [Mutational Nanogenetics in the System of Nanotechnologies]. Nanotekhnologii i okhrana zdorov’ya, 2010, no 3(4), pp. 28–43.

2. Zakhidov S.T. Vystuplenie na zasedanii Prezidiuma RAN 13 oktyabrya 2013 g. v ramkakh obsuzhdeniya nauchnogo soobshcheniya Yu.M. Evdokimova “Strukturnaya nanotekhnologiya nukleinovykh kislot: sozdanie ‘zhidkikh’ i ‘tverdykh’ nanokonstruktsii DNK”: Stenograficheskii otchet [Speech at the meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences on October 13, 2013 as part of discussion of the scientific report by Y.M. Evdokimov “Structural Nanotechnology of Nucleic Acids: Creation of ‘Liquid’ and ‘Solid’ DNA Nanostructures”: Verbatim Report]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2014, vol 84, pp. 20–33.

3. Zakhidov S.T. O nanotekhnologiyakh v sisteme nauk [About Nanotechnologies in the System of Sciences]. Vestnik R ossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2021, vol. 91, no 3, pp. 289–292.

4. Rapoport I.A. Khimicheskii mutagenez: teoriya i praktika [Chemical Mutagenesis: Theory and Practice]. Moscow, Znanie (repr. izd.), 2013, 86 p.

5. Kohl Y., Runden-Pran E., Mariussen E., et al. Genotoxicity of Nanomaterials: Advanced In Vitro Models and High Throughput Methods for Human Hazard Assessment: A Review. Nanomaterials, 2020, vol. 10, no 10.

Information Warfare of the USSR and the West: Generalization and Experience Comprehension

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.98-109

The article presents a factual retrospective review of the public consciousness deformation as a result of successful subversive

ideological and psychological work against the USSR, carried out by the United States in the second half of the 20th century, called the Cold War. Evidence from documents and memoirs of the events participants allows us to realize the continuing relevance of the systemic danger of a destructive information impact for modern Russia.


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7. Khlobustov O.M. Eshche raz o «preslovutom plane Dallesa» [Once Again About the “Notorious Plan of Dulles”]. Trudy Obshchestva izucheniya istorii otechestvennykh spetssluzhb. T. I. Moscow, 2006, pp. 221–220.

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Tell Everyone that Rus’ is Always Alive

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.110-119

The fate of Russia is a hard military work, wars with various defensive and offensive goals. The people at war, their heroism and tragedy – this is the leitmotif of this article. History of the Fatherland is essentially a military chronicle of Russian statehood. It is important to feel the inextricable thread of times, the full depth and richness of the Fatherland’s heroic traditions, dating back to ancient times.

Antagonism in the Approach to Analyzing Foreign Investment into Strategic Companies

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.122-129

The modern model of attracting foreign investment requires rethinking from the perspective of achieving the development goals of investment objects. The article examines the relationship of the institutional foundations of foreign investment in strategic societies with the development processes of such societies. The author provides data on the presence of some flaws in the institutional foundations, and also reveals extremely insignificant research activity in relation to the issue under study. The work used such general scientific and special methods as the scientometric method, the method of text analysis, the method of retrospective analysis, analytical methods and the method of system analysis. Empirical research materials are presented by open analytical reports of the Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation, the UN Conference on Trade and Development. The shortcomings were identified and the directions of modernization of the institutional foundations of foreign investment in strategic companies were formed.


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2. Zhukov P.E., Rasulova G.M. Problemy privlecheniya pryamykh inostrannykh investitsii v Rossiyu na sovremennom etape [Problems of Attracting Foreign Direct Investments to Russia at the Present Stage]. Vestnik Evraziiskoi nauki, 2020, no 4, available at:

3. Mamedov T.N. Rol’ pryamykh inostrannykh investitsii v ekonomicheskom sotrudnichestve stran SNG [Role of Foreign Direct Investments in Economic Cooperation of the CIS Countries]. Sovremennaya Evropa, 2020, no 3 (96), pp. 188–195.

4. Deyatel’nost’ podkomissii po vydache razreshenii [Activities of the Licensing Sub-committee]. Minfin Rossii, available at:

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6. Prezident Rossii podpisal zakon, kotoryi zashchitit rossiiskuyu rybodobyvayushchuyu otrasl’ ot kontrolya so storony nedobrosovestnykh inostrannykh investorov [The President of Russia Signed a Law that will Protect the Russian Fishing Industry From Control by Unscrupulous Foreign Investors]. FAS RF, available at:

7. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 02.07.2021 N 400 «O Strategii natsional’noi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii» [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of July 2, 2021 No. 400 “On the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation”]. Sait Prezidenta Rossii, available at: