DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.56-69

In the circumstances of sanctions-related economic and scientific-technical blockade, the need to build digital mechanisms for managing import substitution processes on the basis of planning and coordinating competencies, similar to the competencies that the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology had, has sharply actualized. It is proposed to use intelligent digital platforms to control the development of science and technology based on the principles of the Soviet information network OGAS and EGSVC projects. The authors of the article substantiate necessity to apply digital information and communication technologies and computing services at various levels of management for innovative agents of any form of ownership through creating and configurating multilayer information-management fields.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii [The World Community in the Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation]. Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, MNIIPU, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. Moscow, MNIIPU, April 21–22, 2022]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Rossiya v novoi ekonomicheskoi real’nosti [Russia in a New Economic Reality]. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, Assotsiatsiya “Analitika”, 2016, 460 p.

3. Grabchak E.P. Importozameshchenie v energetike Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsii [Import Substitution in the Russian Energy Sector in the Context of Sanctions]. Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, MNIIPU, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [Management of complex organizational and technical systems in conditions of supercritical situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference. Moscow, MNIIPU, April 21–22, 2022]. Moscow, MNIIPU, 2022, pp. 16–18.

4. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L., Chinaliev V.U., Epishkin I.I. Upravlenie razvitiem slozhnykh nauchno-tekhnicheskikh kompleksov na osnove intellektual’nykh tsifrovykh platform (realizatsiya kompetentsii Goskomiteta SSSR po nauke i tekhnike v usloviyakh tsifrovoi ekonomiki) [Managing the Development of Complex Scientific-technical Systems Based on Intelligent Digital Platforms (Implementation of the Competencies of the USSR State Committee for Science and Technology in Conditions of Digital Economy)]. Moscow, INES, 2023, 504 p.

5. Chinaliev V.U. Razvitie politiki importozameshcheniya v promyshlennosti Rossii [Developing Import Substitution Policy in the Russian industry]. Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, MNIIPU, 21–22 aprelya 2022 g. [Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. Moscow, MNIIPU, April 21–22, 2022]. Moscow, MNIIPU, 2022.S. 50–53.

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

16. Ageev A.I., Glaz’ev S.Yu., Mityaev D.A., Zolotareva O.A., Pereslegin S.B. Postroenie modeli prognoza kursa valyut na dolgosrochnom i kratkosrochnom gorizontakh [Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6 (186), pp. 16–25, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25.

17. Dubrova T.A. Analiz vremennykh dannykh [Time Data Analysis]. Analiz dannykh. Moscow, Yurait, 2019, pp. 397–459.

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DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-14-23.

20. Mhitaryan S.V., Danchenok L.A. Prognozirovanie prodazh s pomoshch’yu adaptivnyh statisticheskih metodov [Sales Forecasting with the Help of Adaptive Statistical Methods]. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya, 2014, no 9-4, pp. 818–822.

21. Pilyugina A.V., Bojko A.A. Ispol’zovanie modelej ARIMA dlya prognozirovaniya valyutnogo kursa [Using ARIMA Models for Exchange Rate Forecasting]. Prikaspijskij zhurnal: upravlenie i vysokie tekhnologii, 2015, no 4, pp. 249-267.

22. Ruppert D., Matteson D.S. Statistics and Data Analysis for Financial Engineering. Springer, 2015, available at: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-1-4939-2614-5.

23. Garcia F., Guijarro F., Moya I., Oliver J. Estimating returns and conditional volatility: A comparison between the ARMA-GARCH-M models and the backpropagation neural network. International Journal of Complex Systems in Science, 2012, no 1(2), pp. 21–26.

24. Maniatis P. Forecasting the Exchange Rate Between Euro And USD: Probabilistic Approach Versus ARIMA And Exponential Smoothing Techniques. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 2012, no 28(2), pp. 171–192, available at: https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v28i2.6840.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

1. Kuranov G.O. Metodicheskie voprosy kratkosrochnoi otsenki i prognoza makroekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Methodological Issues of Short-Term Assessment and Forecast of Macroeconomic Indicators]. Voprosy statistiki, 2018, no 25(2), pp. 3–24.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Volkova N.N., Surkov A.A., Romanyuk E.I. Sravnitel’nyi analiz modifitsirovannykh metodov Greindzhera — Ramanatkhana i Beitsa — Greindzhera dlya postroeniya ob”edinennogo prognoza dinamiki ekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Comparative Analysis of Modified Granger-Ramanathan and Bates-Granger Methods for Developing a Combined Forecast of Economic Indicators Dynamics]. Voprosy statistiki, 2019, no 26(8), pp. 14–27.

3. Shirov A.A. Makrostrukturnyi analiz i prognozirovanie v sovremennykh usloviyakh razvitiya ekonomiki [Macrostructural Analysis and Forecasting under Current Conditions of Economic Development]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2022, no 5, pp. 43–57.

4. Dmitrieva M.V., Suetin S.N. Modelirovanie dinamiki ravnovesnykh valyutnykh kursov [Simulating the Dynamics of Equilibrium Exchange Rates]. Vestnik KIGIT, 2012, no 12–2(30), pp. 061–064.

5. Linkevich E.F. Mirovaya valyutnaya sistema: poliinstrumental’nyi standart [World Monetary System: Polyinstrumental Standard]. Krasnodar, 2014, pp. 82–91.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Izmenenie strategii operirovaniya dollarom: zapusk SShA novogo kreditno-investitsionnogo tsikla vo vzaimosvyazi s valyutnymi voinami [Changing the Strategy of Dollar Handling: US Launch of New Credit-Investment Cycle in Association with the Currency Wars]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 3(129), pp. 20–35.

7. Fedorova E.A., Lazarev M.P. Vliyanie tseny na neft’ na finansovyi rynok Rossii v krizisnyi period [Impact of Oil Prices on the Financial Market of Russia During the Crisis]. Finansy i kredit, 2014, № 20(596), pp. 14–22.

8. Kuz’min A.Yu. Valyutnye kursy: v poiskakh strategicheskogo ravnovesiya [Exchange Rates: in Search of Strategic Equilibrium]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2018, no 1, pp. 82–91.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.4-5

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.42-51

Neurodigital technologies qualitatively and quantitatively expand the possibilities of human behavior control, creating conditions for ensuring a targeted cognitive-psychological state of both an individual and groups within a neurocommunity. One of the key vectors for applying such new management opportunities is imprinting on a person of a positive perception of the surrounding reality, which contributes to maintaining socio-political stability in the state and society and also increases the efficiency of individual employees and their teams. Identification of psychosemantic qualities of a person based on analysis of his interests and preferences allows to form and imprint a cognitive-reflexive model of identification and interpretation of what is happening, adapted to a particular person, which serves as a source of actions for person and groups of his like-minded people and provides stability of the society, which is gradually acquiring the features of a neurocommunity.

References:

1. Vannevar Bush. As We May Think. The Atlantic, available at: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1945/07/as-we-may-think/303881/?single_page=true.

2. Ageev A.I. Golovokruzhenie intellekta [Intelligence Dizziness]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2019, no 5 (163), p. 5, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.163.2019.5.

3. Denisov A.A., Sablin V.A. Rezul’taty aprobatsii sistemy upravleniya v postindustrial’nykh tekhnologicheskikh sredakh [Results of the Control System Approbation in Post-industrial Technological Environments]. Mezhdunarodnyi nauchno-issledovatel’skii zhurnal “Evraziiskii soyuz uchenykh”, 2020, no 10 (79), pp. 16–21. (Seriya: Tekhnicheskie nauki.)

4. Lepskii V.E. Problema sborki sub”ektov v informatsionnykh voinakh [Problem of the Subjects Assembly in Information Wars]. Informatsionnye voiny, 2019, no 4 (52), pp. 2–8.

5. Loginov E.L. Ispol’zovanie tekhnologii BIG DATA dlya protivodeistviya massovym besporyadkam v usloviyakh nedostatka informatsii i neopredelennosti razvitiya situatsii [Using BIG DATA Technologies to Counter Riots in the Face of Lack of Information and Uncertainty of the Situation Development]. Iskusstvennyi intellekt (bol’shie dannye) na sluzhbe politsii: Sb. statei mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [Artificial Intelligence (Big Data) in the Police Service: Collection of Articles of the International Scientific-practical Conference]. Moscow, Akademiya upravleniya MVD Rossii, 2020, pp. 145–150.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L., Shkuta A.A. Kitai kak neiroinformatsionnaya megamatritsa: tsifrovye tekhnologii strukturirovaniya kognitivnykh ansamblei poryadka [China as a Neural-Information Megamatrix: Digital Technologies for Structuring Cognitive Ensembles of Order]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 1 (175), pp. 50–61, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.175.2021.50-61.

7. Raikov A.N. Komp’yuternaya podderzhka refleksivnykh protsessov v upravlenii [Computer Support for Reflexive Processes in Management]. Sb. “Psikhologiya i ee prilozheniya” [Psychology and Its Applications]. Ezhegodnik Rossiiskogo psikhologicheskogo obshchestva, 2002, no 1, p. 52.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.5

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.56-69

The world has been scared by the collapse of the dollar many times. So far, fears of a global economic collapse, associated with the fate of the dollar, have been greatly exaggerated. However, there are no significant guarantees that this will not happen under certain conditions. Variants of the Atlantic-planned collapse of the dollar with its replacement by a synthetic financial instrument o r digital currency, somehow similar to bitcoin, are possible. COVID-19 has further revealed this problem. Russia needs to abandon its illusions and to be ready to ensure the economic stability of political regime in a special period as manifestation of the world monetary and economic war of all against all at a certain stage of the catastrophe, while waiting for the main actors to agree on joint actions. At the same time, among our geopolitical competing partners, there are a lot of those who want by all means to solve their economic and other problems at the expense of Russia. Therefore,  macroeconomic measures that Russia will have to take in case of a global dollar collapse are very likely to be more severe than the scenario that the authors formulated in this article.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Coronavirus superstrategy: mirovaya proektsiya finansovoi modeli catastrophe just-in-time dlya vykhoda iz krizisa na novuyu geoekonomicheskuyu normal’nost’ [Coronavirus Superstrategy: Global Projection of the “Just-in-time Catastrophe’s” Financial Model for Overcoming the Crisis and Entering into a New Geo-Economic Normality]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 4, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.6-19.

3. Na poroge monetarnoi kul’minatsii [On the Brink of a Monetary Climax]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, August, 25, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/699002.html.

4. Fiskal’nyi ad [Fiscal Hell]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, April, 21, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/698446.html.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. New Deal – 2008 — “novaya sdacha”. Bludnye ucheniki Franklina Ruzvel’ta [“New Deal” – 2008. Lost Followers of Franklin Roosevelt]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009, no 2, pp. 30–37

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Formirovanie novoi modeli valyutno-finansovoi politiki pri upravlenii natsional’nymi zolotovalyutnymi rezervami Rossii [Forming a New Model of Monetary Policy while Managing the National Foreign Exchange Reserves of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2016,

no 3, no 8–15.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Institutsional’nye mekhanizmy snizheniya mul’tifaktornykh riskov dlya valyutno-finansovoi sistemy Rossii i EAES v usloviyakh nelineinoi ekonomicheskoi dinamiki [Institutional Mechanisms for Reducing Multifactor Risks for Monetary-financial System of Russia and the EAEU in the Context of Nonlinear Economic Dynamics]. Monografiya. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, 2017.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.6-16

The risks of increasing international tension have sharply exacerbated the possibility of a nuclear conflict. The main geopolitical players in the international arena have actually recognized the possibility and even expediency of using nuclear weapons. In this context, the need to simulate the consequences of a nuclear strike in order to prepare for emergencies of a critical nature has become extremely urgent. The present article analyzes foreign experience of using digital simulators to this end. The authors outline Russian views on applying agent-based simulation methods for this purpose in the analysis of non-military (civilian) aspects of a nuclear blow effects.

Источники:

1. Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Podgotovka sistemy gosudarstvennogo upravleniya Rossii k sverkhkriticheskim situatsiyam prirodnogo i tekhnogennogo kharaktera [Preparing the Public Administration System of Russia for Supercritical Situations of Natural and Man-made Nature]. Problemy upravleniya bezopasnost’yu slozhnykh sistem: Materialy XXIX Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii. Moskva, 15 dekabrya 2021 g. [Problems of Safety Management of Complex Systems: Proceedings of the XXIX International Scientific-practical Conference. Moscow, December 15, 2021]. Moscow, Institut problem upravleniya im. V.A. Trapeznikova RAN, pp. 99–103.

2. Ageev A.I., Bochkarev O.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Setetsentricheskaya sistema povyshennoi zhivuchesti upravleniya energetikoi Rossii v slozhnoprognoziruemykh kriticheskikh usloviyakh [Net-Centric System of Elevated Survivability of Energy Management in Russia Under Difficult-to-predict Critical Conditions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, vol. 23, no 3 (177), pp. 6–17, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.6-17.

3. Moiseev N.N., Aleksandrov V.V., Tarko A.M. Chelovek i biosfera: Opyt sistemnogo analiza i eksperimenty s modelyami [Man and the Biosphere: The Experience of System Analysis and Experiments with Models]. Moscow, Nauka, 1985, 271 p.

4. Yadernaya zima i ee komp’yuternoe modelirovanie v 80-kh [Nuclear Winter and Its Computer Simulation in the 80s]. Khabr, 2022, May, 28, available at: https://habr.com/ru/company/ruvds/blog/668256/

5. Turco R.P., Toon O.B., Ackerman T.P., Pollack J.B., Sagan C. Nuclear winter: Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions, 1984.

6. Kokoshin A.A., Arbatov A.G., Vasil’ev A.A. Yadernoe oruzhie i strategicheskaya stabil’nost’ (stat’ya pervaya) [Nuclear Weapons and Strategic Stability (Article One)]. SShA: Ekonomika, politika, ideologiya, 1987, no 9, p. 3.

7. John M. Gates. The U.S. Army and Irregular Warfare. The College of Wooster Wooster, Ohio, available at: https://discover.wooster.edu/jgates/files/2011/11/fullbook.pdf.

8. Starr S. Deadly Climate Change From Nuclear War: A threat to human existence, available at: https://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/en/deadly-climate-changefromnuclear-war.pdf.

9. Velikhov E., Kokoshin A. Yadernoe oruzhie i dilemmy mezhdunarodnoi bezopasnosti [Nuclear Weapons and International Security Dilemmas]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1985, no 4, p. 20.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.5

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.183.2022.5