The "Economic Strategies" journal

2023 #4 2023 Indifference of Gambling




Dedollarization of the Global Economy: Trends and Perspectives

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.40-47

The quantitative indicators of dedollarization in the global economy are given. It is revealed that in the short-term the measures to abandon the U.S. dollar may have a limited impact on the global foreign exchange market, but in the longer-term the demand for the U.S. dollar may weaken. The implementation of transactions directly by countries on a bilateral basis using national currencies will thus make the global foreign exchange market more balanced. It is found that the development of dedollarization process is influenced by three major factors: the U.S. dollar’s usage as an instrument of sanctions pressure; the strengthening of the U.S. dollar; the emergence of new technological innovations. The article concludes that the development of dedollarization process along with the creation of new international payments mechanisms in the middle-term will continue to reduce the role of the U.S. dollar in the modern international monetary and financial system.

References:

1. Georgiadis G., Le Mezo H., Mehl A., Tille C. Fundamentals vs. Policies: Can the US Dollar’s Dominance in Global Trade Be Dented? Working Paper Series No. 2574. Frankfurt am Main: ECB, 2021, 47 p., available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2574~664b8e9249.en.pdf.

2. Jamrisko M., Carson R. Suddenly Everyone Is Hunting for Alternatives to the US Dollar. Bloomberg. 21.12.2022, available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-21/fx-weaponization-supercharges-de-dollarization-drive.

3. World Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves. IMF, available at: https://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175.

4. Arslanalp S., Eichengreen B., Simpson-Bell Ch. Dollar Dominance and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies. IMF. 01.06.2022, available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/06/01/blog-dollar-dominance-and-the-rise-of-nontraditional-reserve-currencies.

5. China to Use Shanghai Exchange for Yuan Energy Deals with Gulf Nations — Xi. Reuters. 09.12.2022, available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-xi-tells-gulf-nations-use-shanghai-exchange-yuan-energy-deals-2022-12-09/

6. OTC Foreign Exchange Turnover by Currency. BIS, available at: https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx22_fx_tables.xlsx.

7. Mazumdar R. India Seeks to Globalize Payment Systems, Keep Processing Local. Bloomberg. 17.06.2022, available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-17/india-seeks-to-globalize-payment-systems-keep-processing-local.

8. The Dollar Is as Strong as Ever. Isn’t It?. The Economist. 08.09.2022, available at: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/09/08/the-dollar-is-as-strong-as-ever-isnt-it.

9. Weinland D. China is Rapidly Rolling out Its New Digital Currency. The Economist. 18.11.2022, available at: https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/china-is-rapidly-rolling-out-its-new-digital-currency

On New Mechanisms for Providing Economic Growth in the Context of Sanctions

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.60-63

First the pandemic and then geopolitical tensions in the world created new conditions and posed new challenges for the economies. Among the mechanisms, needed to finance increased government spending, many countries have begun to apply the approaches of the so-called Modern Monetary Theory. It seems that the use of its elements could also be expedient in Russia to finance the necessary transformation of the economy.

References:

1.World Bank. Global Economic Prospects. June 2023. URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e892b75-2594-4901-a036-46d0dec1e753/content.

2. Moiseev S.R. Khaip vokrug (ne)denezhnoi (ne)teorii [Hype around (non)Monetary (non)Theory]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2019, no 9, pp. 112–122.

3. Ershov M.V. Kak finansirovat’ novye gosraskhody: vozmozhnye mekhanizmy v usloviyakh sanktsii [How to Finance New Government Spendings: Possible Mechanisms in the Environment of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6, pp. 26–29. DOI: 10.33917/es-6.186.2022.26-29.

Specifics of Technological Development of Russia

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.64-71

The paper deals with the problems of ensuring the technological sovereignt y of the Russian economy, as a task set in 2022, with an emphasis on the evolutionary aspects of technological changes when considering options for government decisions. The purpose of the study is to identif y the specific characteristics of technological (innovation) dynamics with the formation of structural and sectoral policy measures corresponding to these characteristics. The result is a rationale for the coherence of the policy of new industrialization and ensuring technological sovereignt y, which requires a systemplanned approach that involves controlled structural changes in the field of basic industries and the technological base of the Russian economy. The properties of the aggregated sectors are presented, which must be taken into account when implementing the relevant structural policy. Proposals are given on the formation of structural and sectoral policy in Russia at the present stage.

References:

1. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Nanotekhnologii kak klyuchevoi faktor novogo tekhnologicheskogo uklada v ekonomike [Nanotechnologies as a Key Factor of the New Technological Order in the Economy]. Pod red. akademika RAN S.Yu. Glaz’eva i professor V.V. Kharitonova. Moscow, Trovant, 2009, 304 p.

2. Spens M. Sleduyushchaya konvergentsiya. Budushchee ekonomicheskogo rosta v mire, zhivushchem na raznykh skorostyakh [Next convergence. The Future of Economic Growth in a World Living at Different Speeds]. Moscow, Izd-vo Instituta Gaidara, 2130, 336 p.

3. Sukharev O.S. Ekonomika promyshlennosti, tekhnologii i intellektual’nykh firm [Economics of Industry, Technology, and Smart Firms]. Moscow, Lenand, 2022, 304 p.

4. Khelpman E. Zagadka ekonomicheskogo rosta [Economic Growth Mystery]. Moscow, Izd-vo Instituta Gaidara, 2011, 240 p.

5. Cheng M., Yang S., Wen Z. The effect of technological factors on industrial energy intensity in China: New evidence from the technological diversification. Sustainable

Production and Consumption, vol. 28, 2021, pp. 775–785.

6. Crafts N. The First Industrial Revolution: Resolving the Slow Growth. Rapid Industrialization Paradox. Papers and Proceedings of the Nineteenth Annual Congress of the European Economic Association. Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 3, N 2/3, 2005, pp. 525–534.

7. Dosi G. Technical Change and Industrial Transformation: The Patterns of Industrial Dynamics. In: Technical Change and Industrial Transformation. Palgrave Macmillan, London, 1984, 338 p.

8. Franka A.G., Dalenogareb L.S., Ayala N.F. Industry 4.0 technologies: Implementation patterns in manufacturing companies. International Journal of Production

Economics, vol. 210, 2019, pp. 15–26.

9. Sukharev O.S. Izmerenie tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya: podkhody, metody, problemy i perspektivy [Measuring Technological Development: Approaches, Methods, Problems and Prospects]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 1, pp. 26–35, DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.26-35.

Innovation Economy Clustering: Strategic Issues of Development

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.72-77

Conditions prevailing in the Russian economy in 2023 presuppose an increased role of indirect forms of state support for business, where the state acts as a curator, nourishing small businesses with the help of analytical support. An optimal institution for implementing such a support policy is the innovation cluster, due to the formation in the process of “cooperation — competition” of a group of interrelated enterprises that can compete with large companies in innovation markets. Based on the patent analysis, it is shown that Russia has a significant development potential, and innovation clusters should focus on developing those technological areas that are most promising for their target development model.

References:

1. Bychkova O., Gladarev B., Kharkhordin O., Tsinman Zh. Fantasticheskie miry rossiiskogo khai-teka [Fantastic Worlds of Russian High-Tech]. Saint Petersburg, Izd-vo Evropeiskogo universiteta v Sankt-Peterburge, 2019, 416 p.

2. Prirost vysokoproizvoditel’nykh rabochikh mest [Growth of High-Performance Jobs] // Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/vprm-2017-2021.xls.

3. Kostin S.V. Innovatsionnyi klaster kak institut razvitiya innovatsionnoi ekonomiki Rossii [Innovation Cluster as an Institution for Development of Russia’s Innovation Economy]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 3, pp. 64–69, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.183.2022.64-69.

4. Chang Kha-Dzhun. S”edobnaya ekonomika. Prostoe ob”yasnenie na primerakh mirovoi kukhni [Edible Economy. A Simple Explanation on Examples of World Cuisine]. Moscow, Mann, Ivanov i Ferber, 2023, 337 p.

5. Andrews D., Criscuolo Ch., Gal P. Frontier Firms, Technology Diffusion and Public Policy: Micro Evidence from OECD Countries. OECD Productivity Working Paper, 2015.

6. Grachev I.D., Nekrasov S.A. Opora na natsional’nuyu innovatsionnuyu sistemu kak neobkhodimoe uslovie realizatsii natsional’nykh proektov [Reliance on the National Innovation System as a Necessary Condition for Implementing National Projects]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020,

vol. 90, vol. 8, pp. 714–725.

7. Kostin S.V. Innovatsionnyi klaster kak institut organizatsii konkurentsii v usloviyakh ekonomicheskoi rekonstruktsii [Innovation Cluster as an Institution for Organizing Competition in the Context of Economic Reconstruction]. Problemy teorii i praktiki upravleniya, 2022, no 4, pp. 140–152.

Import Substitution of the Culture of Measurements

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.78-85

World turbulence has accelerated trends towards cultural changes that emerged at the end of the last century. Today transformation of traditional management forms, corresponding to changing cultural models, is adequate neither to the essence nor the pace of the new reality formation. It’s high time to start thinking about inevitability of losing the comfort of managing an enterprise as a profit-making machine. The well-known postulate “what cannot be measured cannot be controlled” raises a new question: what and how to measure? Possible way out could be the return to corporations of diversity and complexity on the basis of the theory of fractal sets, and allocation of natural processes outside the Euclid and Newton metrics could become the foundation of a self-organization.

References:

1. Deming E. Vykhod iz krizisa. Novaya paradigma upravleniya lyud’mi, sistemami i protsessami [Way out of the Crisis. New Paradigm for Managing People, Systems and Processes]. 5-e izd. Moscow, Al’pina Pablisher, 2018.

2. Anan’in V.I. Osobennosti natsional’nogo upravleniya [Peculiarities of National Governance]. Elektronnyi zhurnal “Upravlyaem predpriyatiem”, 2014, no 10(45), available at: https://upr.ru/article/osobennosti-nacional-nogo-upravleniya-chast-1-rossijskaya-dejstvitel-nost-i-zapadnye-praktikiupravl/

3. Bashnin A.V. Informatsionnaya podderzhka situativnogo upravleniya pri obespechenii nepreryvnosti biznesa [Information Support for Situational Management while Ensuring Business Continuity]. Information Management, 2013 (fevral’).

4. Nait F.Kh. Risk, neopredelennost’ i pribyl’ [Risk, Uncertainty and Profit]. Per. s angl. M.Ya. Kazhdana. Moscow, Delo, 2003, 359 p. (Sovremennaya institutsional’no-ekonomicheskaya teoriya).

5. Taleb N. Antikhrupkost’. Kak izvlech’ vygodu iz khaosa [Antifragility. How to Capitalize on Chaos]. Moscow, KoLibri, Azbuka-Attikus, 2014.

6. Varneke Kh.-Yu. Revolyutsiya v predprinimatel’skoi kul’ture [Revolution in Entrepreneurial Culture]. Moscow, Nauka/Interperiodika, 1999.

7. Kwangyeol R., Mooyoung J. Fractal Approach to Managing Intelligent Enterprises. In: Creating Knowledge Based Organizations (Eds. J. N. D. Gupta, S.K. Sharma). Idea Group, pp. 312–348.

8. Malik P. An Introduction to Fractal Dynamics. Journal of Human Values, 2004, vol. 10, pp. 99–109.

9. Montreuil B., Venkatadri U., Rardin R.L. Fractal Layout Organization for Jop Shop Environment. International Journal of Production Research, 1999, vol. 37, N 3, pp. 501–521.

10. Shoham S., Hasgall A. Knowledge Workers as Fractals in a Complex Adaptive Organization. Knowledge and Process Management, 2005, vol. 12, N 3, pp. 225–236.

11. Mandel’brot B. Fraktal’naya geometriya prirody [Fractal Geometry of Nature]. Moscow, Institut komp’yuternykh issledovanii, 2002.

Outcomes of Russia’s strategic development in January-April 2023 are better than pessimistic forecasts

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.86-91

The author dwells on the change in the market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for the first four months of 2023.

Contribution of supply and demand indicators to the MIES is assessed. Analysis of industrial production is carried out.

References:

1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — mae 2023 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-May 2023: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-05-2023.pdf.

2. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — aprele 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-April 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-01-2023.pdf.

3. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. “Nepredskazuemye” itogi 2022 goda i potentsial’nye ugrozy strategicheskomu razvitiyu Rossii v tekushchem godu [“Unpredictable” Results of 2022 and Potential Threats to Russia’s Strategic Development in the Current Year]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 2(188), pp. 44–49, DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.44-49.

4. Informatsiya o plenarnom zasedanii XXVI Peterburgskogo mezhdunarodnogo ekonomicheskogo foruma 16 iyunya 2023 g. [Information on the plenary meeting of the XXVI St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 16, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta R, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71445.ru/events/president/news/70565.

Analytical technology of the “economic cross” — a toolkit for modeling the efficiency of closing the nuclear fuel cycle

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.92-101

Changes in the economic development priorities during transition to a post-industrial society inevitably forces us to reconsider approaches to the role of innovation in the modern economy, including in nuclear energy. The life cycles of nuclear energy resources and nuclear power units are intersected, and at this intersection energy is generated, revenue occurs, etc. The rest of these life cycles are mainly costs. Method of analyzing this life cycles intersection was named the “economic cross”. The purpose of the study presented in the article is to specify conditions, under which the final revenue, with regard to discounting, will exceed the total costs, and nuclear power technology will be profitable.

References:

1. Kleiner G.B., Rybachuk M.A., Karpinskaya V.A. Strategicheskoe planirovanie i sistemnaya optimizatsiya natsional’noi ekonomiki [Strategic Planning and System Optimization of the National Economy]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2022, no 3(192), pp. 6–15.

2. Kleiner G.B. Inklyuzivnyi rost v ekonomike zamknutogo tsikla [Inclusive Growth in a Circular Economy] Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii, 2022, no 3(73), pp. 37–44.

3. Kleiner G.B., Rybachuk M.A., Karpinskaya V.A. Systemic factors and prerequisites for the inclusive growth of the russian economy. Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies, 2022, vol. 287, pp. 3–14.

4. Steblyanskaya A.N., Ai M., Efimova O.V., Kleiner G.B., Rybachuk M.A. Multi-capital approach for sustainable growth: experience from the oil & gas companies. Finance: Theory and Practice, 2022, vol. 26, no 4, pp. 29–43.

5. Veretekhina S.V., Kleiner G.B. Kontseptual’nye polozheniya upravleniya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskimi sistemami primenitel’no k podderzhke eksporta otechestvennoi naukoemkoi produktsii v usloviyakh novoi ekonomicheskoi real’nosti [Conceptual Provisions for Managing Socio-Economic Systems in Relation to Supporting the Export of Domestic High-Tech Products in the New Economic Reality]. Russian Economic Bulletin, 2022, vol. 5, no 4, pp. 244–251.

6. Adamov E.O. “Proryv” v yadernoi energetike [“Breakthrough” in Nuclear Power]. Energeticheskaya politika, 2019, no 4, pp. 78–85.

7. Kleiner G.B. Novaya teoriya ekonomicheskikh sistem i ee prilozheniya [New Theory of Economic Systems and Its Applications]. Vestnik RAN, 2011, no 9, pp. 794–808.

8. Timokhin D., Putilov A. Principles of Design of a Learning Management System for Development of Economic Skills for Nuclear Engineering Education. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 2021, vol. 1310, pp. 40–48.

9. Timokhin D.V., Putilov A.V. Innovatsionnye vozmozhnosti ispol’zovaniya metodologii “ekonomicheskogo kresta” v prognozirovanii perspektiv razvitiya dvukhkomponentnoi atomnoi energetiki [Innovative Possibilities of Applying the “Economic Cross” Methodology in Forecasting the Development Prospects of two-component nuclear energy]. Innovatsii, 2020, no 1, pp. 12–21.

10. Putilov A., Timokhin D., Pimenova V. Adaptation of the educational process to the requirements of the global nuclear market according the concept of “economic cross” through its digitalization. Procedia Computer Science, 2020, no 169, pp. 452–457.

Problems of Regulating the Population of Russia

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.102-107

The authors dwell on the problem of establishing state institutions aimed at overcoming the depopulation of Russia in the context of the current demographic crisis. As an effective tool for creating conditions for implementation of the Social Doctrine provisions, a model of information interactions is proposed, which is formed in the form of a Situational Center. The authors show the tasks of the Situational Center as a regulator of cause-and-effect relationships between each of the controlled objects that determine formation of ways out of the demographic crisis. The author’s definition of information is given.

References:

1. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Ryvok v budushchee. Rossiya v novykh tekhnologicheskom i mirokhozyaistvennom ukladakh [Leap into the Future. Russia in the New Technological and World Economic Patterns]. Moscow, Knizhnyi mir, 2018, 768 p.

2. Yakovets T.Yu. Gosudarstvennoe regulirovanie sotsiodemograficheskikh protsessov v Rossii [State Regulation of Socio-Demographic Processes in Russia]. Moscow, Prospekt, 2019, 274 p.

3. Rimashevskaya N.M. Chelovek i reformy: sekrety vyzhivaniya [Man and Reforms: Secrets of Survival]. Moscow, ISEPN RAN, 2003, 392 p.

4. Luka (Voino-Yasenetskii), arkhiep. Izbrannye tvoreniya [Selected creations]. Svyatitel’ Luka, arkhiepiskop Simferopol’skii i Krymskii. Moscow, Sibirskaya Blagozvonnitsa, 2010, p. 598

5. Gegel’ G.V.F. Raboty raznykh let [Works of different years]. Vol. 1, Moscow, 1970, p. 265.

6. Luka (Voino-Yasenetskii), arkhiep. Dukh, dusha, telo. Izbrannye tvoreniya [Spirit, Soul, Body. Selected creations]. Svyatitel’ Luka, arkhiepiskop Simferopol’skii i Krymskii. Moscow, Sibirskaya Blagozvonnitsa, 2010, pp. 563–664.

7. Yakovets T.Yu. Demograficheskoe polozhenie Rossii [Demographic Situation in Russia]. Germaniya, LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, 2013, 76 p.

8. Yakovets T.Yu. O dvizhushchikh silakh obshchestvennogo razvitiya [On the Driving Forces of Social Development]. Filosofiya khozyaistva, 2012, no 4, pp. 25–30.

9. Sorokin Pitirim A. Glavnye tendentsii nashego vremeni [Major Trends of our Time]. Moscow, Nauka, 1997, 351 p.

10. Yakovets T.Yu. Formirovanie virtual’noi sistemy sotsiokul’turnykh tsennostei kak sledstvie razvitiya kul’tury vysokikh tekhnologii XX veka [Formation of the Virtual System of Socio-Cultural Values as a Consequence of the Development of a High-Tech Culture of the 20th Century]. Aktual’noe obshchestvovedenie. Vol. 2. Problemy i parametry. Moscow, Kostroma: Izdanie Kostromskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta im. N.A. Nekrasova, 2001, pp. 101–107.

11. Yurkevich E.V. Informatsionnye osobennosti sochetaniya material’nogo i dukhovnogo aspektov sushchestvovaniya zhivykh system [Informational Features of the Combination of Material and Spiritual Aspects of the Living Systems Existence]. Filosofiya i kul’tura, 2012, no 9(57), pp. 17–27.

12. Yurkevich E.V., Leshchev S.V. Konvergentnaya kauzal’nost’: informatsionnye vzaimodeistviya v biologicheskikh sistemakh [Convergent Causality: Information