The "Economic Strategies" journal

2023 #6 2023 Double Bottom of the Future




Forecast Merging

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.68-69

Review of the book by A.A. Frenkel and A.A. Surkov “Forecasts Merging — an Effective Tool for Increasing Forecasting Accuracy”, dedicated to the analysis of accumulated knowledge about various approaches and methods for constructing a combined forecast. The book provides a forecast for manufacturing certain types of industrial products based on the use of various private and combined forecasting methods and makes a statistical comparison of their accuracy.

Inflation Factors in Modern Russia, the Specter of Recession and Stability Reserves

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.70-77

The most important factor of inflation in the modern Russian economy is investment support for backward technologies.

The cheapness of labour and the low rate of accumulation cause a backwardness funnel into which the economy is gradually plunging. Meanwhile, interventions of the Bank of Russia weaken the national currency, provoke new waves of inflation and block economic growth. At the same time, the Russian economy has certain reserves of stability, based on the presence of a number of built-in stabilizers, identified through regression analysis. A set of measures aimed at overcoming the current unfavourable dynamics of the economic environment is proposed and justified.

References:

1. Zhizn’ vzaimy. Kak peregrelas’ rossiiskaya ekonomika i chem eto grozit [Life on Borrowed Time. How the Russian Economy Overheated and what it Threatens]. NUR.KZ, 2023, 8 avgusta, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/ZNHKoql33BP55hHi?encoded_pulse_user_info=PDubqO-mOXxJtkXI01sTPDSj4o_

Q7q8ajWIqVL5OKPXKtXjqwwubLYQ9uqJHRpSNnu6u6WiAaaTXMl_h8g6euw:1691563565003&from_site=mai

2. Nizhegorodtsev R.M., Gorid’ko N.P., Ivanov E.Yu., Trenev N.N., Skachkova M.A. Gorizonty ekonomicheskogo rosta: faktory, riski, instituty: Nauch. Monografiya [Horizons of Economic Growth: Factors, Risks, Institutions: Scientific monograph.]. Ed. R.M. Nizhegorodtseva. Moscow, NIPKTs “Voskhod-A”, 2022, 184 p.

3. Kochetov Aleksei. Zapadnye eksperty prishli k vyvodu, chto ekonomika Rossii dolzhna byt’ v 3–5 raz bol’she, chem ob etom zayavlyayut… [Western Experts Have Come to the Conclusion that the Russian Economy Should be 3–5 Times Larger than Stated…]. Dzen.ru, 2023, 27 maya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/ZG4spOPg13Hyab99?from_site=mail

National Financial-Economic Development. Analysis of the Russian Federation Strategic Documents

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.78-83

The author substantiates the need to reform the strategic planning system at the current stage of Russia’s development, which will allow our country to take a leading position in the world. Documentation related to the sphere of strategic planning of the Russian Federation is analyzed, recommendations are given for introducing changes to Russian legislation on issues of national socio-economic development.

References:

1. Zasedanie Soveta bezopasnosti, v khode kotorogo obsuzhdalis’ mery po sovershenstvovaniyu sistemy strategicheskogo planirovaniya v Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Meeting of the Security Council, During which Measures to Improve the Strategic Planning System in the Russian Federation were Discussed, 09/27/2021]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federatsii, 2021, 27 sentyabrya, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/copy/66777

2. Baza rekomendatsiy Schetnoy palaty Rossiyskoy Federatsii [Database of Recommendations of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Schetnoy palaty RF, available at: https://rec.ach.gov.ru

3. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Schetnoy palaty RF [Official website of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation], available at: https://rec.ach.gov.ru/analitika?j&paramCard=1

4. Dokumenty strategicheskogo planirovaniya [Strategic Planning Documents]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt gosudarstvennoy avtomatizirovannoy informatsionnoy sistemy “Upravlenie”, available at: https://gasu.gov.ru/stratdocuments

5. Gaynulin D.G., Voronin V.V., Panchikhina O.V., Pal’chikov E.A., Tyupyshev D.A. Sistema strategicheskogo planirovaniya Rossiyskoy Federatsii: riski i perspektivy [Strategic Planning System of the Russian Federation: Risks and Prospects]. Innovatsii, 2018, no 4(234), pp. 29–35.

Internal Economic Security as a Factor in Increasing the Competitiveness of the State in the International Arena

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.84-89

Over the past few decades, the approach to assessing the competitiveness of the state has moved from a closer focus on strict economic indicators to the assessment of such parameters as the human-centeredness of the economy, improvement of the quality of life, emphasis on innovation and digital transformation. At the same time, it is not yet possible to assert the complete dominance of social parameters in the comprehensive image assessment of the state. Thus, according to the author of the study, the phenomenon of state competitiveness is inextricably linked to the desire of the world community for international economic security, which, in turn, is inseparable from the national economic security of individual actors. At the same time, the social orientation of the policy is not the last place in the assessment of national economic security, which is in line with the global trend to popularize non-economic image factors of competitiveness. Explores the conceptual framework, interrelation and interdependence of the concepts of state competitiveness and economic security, determining their essential indivisibility both in economic and political science boundaries.

References:

1. The Global Competitiveness Report 2011–2012. World Economic Forum. New York: Oxford University Press, 2002. С. 3, 4.

2. Gordienko D.V., Safonov M.S. Reintegratsiya ili dezintegratsiya. Kak zashchitit’ natsional’nye interesy? [Reintegration or Disintegration. How to Protect National Interests?]. Moscow, Nauchnaya biblioteka, 2018, 384 p.

3. Gromova N.V. Rol’ chelovecheskogo kapitala v obespechenii konkurentosposobnosti sovremennykh kompanii [The Role of Human Capital in Ensuring the Competitiveness of Modern Companies]. Sovremennaya konkurentsiya, 2014, no 6, p. 128.

4. Mariya Chunikhina. Doklad Mishustina Putinu o sostoyanii ekonomiki strany v 2023 godu. Glavnoe [Mishustin’s Report to Putin on the State of the Country’s Economy in 2023. Main]. AiF, 2023, 5 iyulya, available at: https://aif.ru/money/economy/doklad_mishutina_putinu_o_sostoyanii_ekonomiki_strany_v_2023_godu_glavnoe

5. Zakon RF ot 5 marta 1992 g. N 2446-I “O bezopasnosti” (s izm. i dop.) [Law of the Russian Federation of March 5, 1992 No. 2446-I “On Security” (as amended and supplemented)]. Garant, available at: https://base.garant.ru/3959688/

6. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 29 aprelya 1996 g. N 608 [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated April 29, 1996 No. 608]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/9261

7. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 13 maya 2017 g. N 208 “O Strategii ekonomicheskoi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii na period do 2030 goda” [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 13, 2017 No. 208 “On the Strategy for the Economic Security of the Russian Federation for the period until 2030”].

Ofitsialэnyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/41921

8. Morgenthau H.J., Knopf A.A. Politics Among Nations. The Struggle for Power and Peace. Second Edition. N.Y., 1955.

Problem Areas

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.90-95

The following areas of socio-economic life, where conditions for implementing strategic risks have developed, are considered: demography, scientific and engineering sphere, mechanical engineering. For solving the problems of the listed areas a coordinated concept is required. According to the authors, its central element should become construction of a large private business, especially in high-tech areas.

References:

1. Demograficheskoe budushchee Rossii [Demographic Future of Russia], available at: https://strana-oz.ru/2004/4/demograficheskoe-budushchee-rossii/

2. Rosstat predstavil utochnennyi demograficheskii prognoz do 2036 goda [Rosstat Presented an Updated Demographic Forecast until 2036]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/313/document/72529

3. Uchenye opredelili “vilku” chislennosti naseleniya Rossii: Bol’shaya chast’ prognozov predusmatrivaet sokrashchenie chislennosti rossiyan [Scientists have Identified a “Fork” in the Population of Russia: Most Forecasts Envisage a Reduction in the Number of Russians]. RBK, 2022, 26 iyulya, available at:

https://www.rbc.ru/economics/26/07/2022/62de7e0f9a7947e84216786d

4. Mariya Makarova. Deindustrializatsiya, krizis, katastrofy: kak poyavlyayutsya goroda-prizraki [Deindustrialization, Crisis, Disasters: How Ghost Towns Appear]. RBK, 2021, 27 avgusta, available at: https://trends.rbc.ru/trends/social/61263ba09a79473e409999c3

5. Anastasiya Tselykh. Rossiyane rabotayut mnogo i plokho. Pochemu tak i chto s etim delat’ [Russians Work Hard and Poorly. Why is this and what to do about it]. Sekret firmy, 2021, 7 maya, available at: https://secretmag.ru/survival/rossiyane-rabotayut-mnogo-i-plokho-pochemu-tak-i-chto-s-etim-delat.htm/

6. Ekaterina Vinogradova. Eksperty ob”yasnili minimum bezrabotitsy v Rossii pri sokrashchenii ekonomiki. Sredi prichin — demograficheskie problemy I nepolnaya zanyatost’ [Experts Explained the Minimum Unemployment in Russia due to the Contraction of the Economy. Reasons Include Demographic Problems and Underemployment]. RBK, 2023, 3 marta, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/03/03/2023/6400712f9a79474d18f79446

7. Anastasiya Kalinina. Srednyaya prodolzhitel’nost’ zhizni v Rossii v 2022–2023 godu [Average Life Expectancy in Russia in 2022–2023]. VisaSam.ru, 2023, 5 oktyabrya, available at: https://visasam.ru/russia/goroda/prodolzhitelnost-zhizni-v-rossii.html

8. Uroven’ zhizni rossiyan padaet uzhe bolee 10 let [The Standard of Living of Russians has been Falling for More than 10 Years]. Dzen.ru, 2022, 18 noyabrya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/Y3cwaLfI3z1z_b65

9. Razrushenie nauki do “pobednogo kontsa” [Destruction of Science to the Bitter End]. RAN, 2007, 31 maya, available at: https://www.ras.ru/digest/showdnews.aspx?id=9fd43650-ca35-4305-a537-6418fdc62a05&print=1

10. Kul’kin A.M. Nauka v Rossii: protsess degradatsii ili perspektivy ee vozrozhdeniya? [Science in Russia: Process of Degradation or Prospects for Its Revival?]. CyberLeninka.ru, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/nauka-v-rossii-protsess-degradatsii-ili-perspektivy-ee-vozrozhdeniya

Consolidating Meanings of the North Caucasus as a Factor in Protecting Russian Civilizational Code in Conditions of Cognitive War

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.96-103

The authors present the results of the expert seminars of the “Meanings of the Caucasus” Laboratory” project on the development of consolidating semantic structures that are relevant for the youth of the North Caucasus Federal District. The key challenges in the cognitive sphere, that the civilizational identity of the multinational people of Russia faces in the North Caucasus, are examined.

The authors provide materials from expert discussions of possible options for countering existing threats through the search for consolidating meanings and practices in the following areas: historical memory, value system, image of the future. They identify key historical events and personalities whose activities have had a constructive, unifying character for the Russian Caucasus, and in modern conditions are positively perceived by the youth audience. The article also highlights value orientations specific to the North Caucasus, that correlate with the all-Russian system of traditional spiritual and moral values. An analysis of the honor codes that were in demand over three historical eras (Russian Empire, USSR, modern Russia) by residents of the North Caucasus with description of the common core of values is provided.

Conclusion is made about the need to promote the above described consolidating meanings through the existing publicinstitutions of the North Caucasus Federal District.

References:

1. Il’nitskii A.M. Mental’naya voina Rossii [Mental War of Russia]. Voennaya mysl’, 2021, no 8, pp. 19–33.

2. Magomedova M.A. Mezhetnicheskie konflikty i protivorechiya na Severnom Kavkaze v kontekste regional’noi bezopasnosti [Interethnic Conflicts and Contradictions in the North Caucasus in the Context of Regional Security]. Vlast’, 2023, no 2, pp. 72–78.

3. Starodubrovskaya I.V., Kazenin K.I. Severnyi Kavkaz: Quo Vadis? Ekspertnyi doklad [North Caucasus: Quo Vadis? Expert Report]. Moscow, 2013, 67 p.

4. Nadein-Raevskii V.A. Pantyurkizm: ideologiya, istoriya, politika. Ekspansionistskaya doktrina: ot Osmanskoi imperii do nashikh dnei i sud’by Turtsii, Rossii i Armenii [Pan-Turkism: Ideology, History, Politics. Expansionist Doctrine: from the Ottoman Empire to the Present Day and the Fate of Turkey, Russia and Armenia]. Moscow, Russkaya panorama, 2017, 316 p.

5. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 31 marta 2023 g. N 229 “Ob utverzhdenii Kontseptsii vneshnei politiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of March 31, 2023 No. 229 “On approval of the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/preysident/news/70811

6. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 9 noyabrya 2022 g. N 809 “Ob utverzhdenii Osnov gosudarstvennoi politiki po sokhraneniyu i ukrepleniyu traditsionnykh rossiiskikh dukhovno-nravstvennykh tsennostei” [. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of November 9, 2022 No. 809 “On approval of the Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/48502

On the Issue of Identifying a Campaign of Disparate Impact on an Ethnic Group in the Region

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.104-119

Currently, there is no a single methodology that allows us to present substantiated evidence-based statistics on the presence or absence of a “campaign” of racial or ethnic discrimination. Identification or confirmation of the absence of disparate impact that Russia has on Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars as a result of an allegedly ongoing “campaign of racial discrimination” [1] in the field of education was carried out on the basis of an assessment of population census data. The author presents the use of a complex methodology, including analysis of statistical cross-tabulations (contingency tables), variation indicators, testing hypotheses using the Chi-square test (chi-square statistic-χ2), assessing the relationship closeness with the help of the Pearson and Chuprov mutual contingency coefficients, as well as Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. Assessment of differences in structures by ethnicity is based on calculations and comparison of specific weights and a generalizing/integral indicator of structural shifts/differences (V.M. Ryabtsev index). Testing of this approach resulted in a conclusion that there was no racial/ethnic discrimination as a “campaign” carried out in the territory of the Republic of Crimea in the period from 2014 to the present.

References:

1. MID Rossii. O vystuplenii rossiyskikh predstaviteley v khode ustnykh slushaniy v Mezhdunarodnom Sude OON po delu Ukraina protiv Rossii [Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. On the Speech of Russian Representatives During the Oral Hearings at the International Court of Justice in the Case of Ukraine v. Russia]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Ministerstva inostrannykh del RF, 2023, 10 iyunya, available at: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1886510/

2. The advanced theory of statistics. Vol. I. Distribution theory. Maurice G. Kendall, M.A., sc.D., & Alan Stuart, B.Sc. (Econ.). Charles griffin & Company limited. London. 1958.

3. Tractenberg R. Ethical practice of statistics and data science. Ethics International Press Limited, 2022.

4. Surinov A., Dianov M. (red.). Itogi perepisi naseleniya v Krymskom federal’nom okruge. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki (IITs “Statistika Rossii”, Moskva, 2015) [Results of the Population Census in the Crimean Federal District. Federal State Statistics Service (IRC “Statistics of Russia”, Moscow, 2015)]. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/KRUM_2015.pdf

5. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki, Vserossiyskaya perepis’ naseleniya 2020 goda [Federal State Statistics Service, All-Russian Population Census 2020]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Federal’noy sluzhby gosudarstvennoy statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/vpn_popul

6. UNECE. Conference of European Statisticians Recommendations for the 2020 Censuses of Population and Housing. UNECE, available at: https://unece.org/statistics/publications/conference-european-statisticians-recommendations-2020-censuses-population

Cooperative (Moral) Economy

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.120-133

The authors examine the reasons, prerequisites and ways of addressing such problem as the creation in Russia of a cooperative (moral/ethical) economy sector based on the principles of justice, equal opportunities and conservative ethical standards.

References:

1. Toshchenko Zh.T. Prekariat. Ot protoklassa k novomu klassu [Precariat. From Protoclass to New Class]. Institut sotsiologii FNISTs RAN, RGGU. Moscow, Nauka, 2018, 346 p.

2. Tezaurus sotsiologii: temat. slov.-sprav. [Thesaurus of Sociology: Thematic Dictionary-Reference Book]. Pod red. Zh.T. Toshchenko. Moscow, YuNITI, 2009, 487 p. (Seriya “Cogito ergo sum”.)

3. Ushli v minus: skol’ko rossiiskii biznes poteryal v krizis. Po dannym upolnomochennogo po zashchite prav predprinimatelei Borisa Titova [They Went into the Red: How Much Russian Business Lost During the Crisis. According to the Commissioner for the Protection of the Rights of Entrepreneurs Boris Titov]. SBER Biznes, available at: https://www.sberbank.ru/ru/s_m_business/pro_business/poteri-rossijskogo-biznesa-ot-koronavirusa/

4. Doklad Prezidentu RF — 2021 upolnomochennogo pri Prezidente RF po zashchite prav predprinimatelei Borisa Titova [Report to the President of the Russian Federation — 2021 by the Commissioner under the President of the Russian Federation for the Protection of the Rights of Entrepreneurs Boris Titov], available at:

http://doklad.ombudsmanbiz.ru/doklad_2021.html

5. Katasonov V.Yu. O pravoslavnykh bankovskikh utopiyakh [About Orthodox Banking Utopias]. Omiliya, 2015, 4 yanvarya, available at: https://omiliya.org/article/o-pravoslavnykh-bankovskikh-utopiyakh-valentin-katasonov?ysclid=llc2vf7phn421883288

6. Zhuravlev A.Yu. Islamskii banking [Islamic Banking]. Institut vostokovedeniya RAN. Moscow, Sadra, 2017. (Ekonomika i pravo.)

7. Analiz razmera i doli islamskogo finansovogo rynka: Tendentsii rosta, vozdeistvie COVID-19 i prognozy (2023–2028) [Islamic Financial Market Size and Share Analysis: Growth Trends, COVID-19 Impact and Forecasts (2023–2028)]. Mordor Intelligence, available at: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/

ru/industry-reports/global-islamic-finance-market

8. Mezhdunarodnyi kooperativnyi al’yans [Website], available at: https://www.ica.coop/en/cooperatives/cooperative-identity

9. Katasonov V.Yu. Ekonomicheskaya teoriya slavyanofilov i sovremennaya Rossiya. “Bumazhnyi rubl’” S. Sharapova [Economic Theory of the Slavophiles and Modern Russia. “Paper Ruble” by S. Sharapov]. Moscow, Institut russkoi tsivilizatsii, 2014, 656 p.

Living Textbook on Scientific and Technical Progress and International Relations

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.134-135

Review of the textbook “Scientific and technological progress and modern international relations”, published by the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the initiative of the Centre for International Information Security, Science and Technology Policy.

The textbook provides up-to-date and structured information and analysis on certain types of technologies with an emphasis on their importance for global politics.