Author page: Aleksandr Ageev

Living Textbook on Scientific and Technical Progress and International Relations

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.134-135

Review of the textbook “Scientific and technological progress and modern international relations”, published by the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the initiative of the Centre for International Information Security, Science and Technology Policy.

The textbook provides up-to-date and structured information and analysis on certain types of technologies with an emphasis on their importance for global politics.

Technology of Data Information Space and Improvement of Public Administration

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.62-67

The article examines possibilities of the ontological model and technology of the data information space and the ISIAD software product. This experience can be successfully used in the “Data Economy” national project.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Kuz’min O.V., Perminova E.A. Informatsionnaya bezopasnost’ avtomatizirovannykh sistemy upravleniya proizvodstvennym i tekhnologicheskimi protsessami ob”ektov kriticheskoy informatsionnoy infrastruktu [Information Security of Automated Control Systems for Production and Technological Processes of Critical Information Infrastructure Facilities]. Ucheb. posobie. Moscow, MNIPU, 2021.

2. Ageev A.I., Bondarik V.N., Ivanova O.D., Kudryavtsev A.V., Loshchinin A.A. Tekhnokraticheskaya kontseptsiya proektov tsifrovoy ekonomiki: sinergiya integratsii sistem i dannykh [The Technocratic Concept of Digital Economy Projects: the Synergy of Integration of Systems and Data]. Mikroekonomika, 2018,

no 5, pp. 14–21.

3. Ageev A.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L., Chinaliev V.U. Tsifrovaya platforma upravleniya nauchno-tekhnologicheskim razvitiem v prostranstve ekonomicheskogo sotrudnichestva [Digital Platform for Managing Scientific and Technological Development within Economic Cooperation Framework].

Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, no 1, pp. 56–69, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.187.2023.56-69

4. Loshchinin A.A., Bondarik V.N., Kudryavtsev A.V. Nekotorye informatsionno-tekhnologicheskie aspekty tsifrovoy ekonomiki [Some Information and Technological Aspects of the Digital Economy]. Mikroekonomika, 2017, no 4, pp. 67–71.

5. Ageev A.I., Radina V.Ya. Metodika tsifrovoy ekonomiki v chasti upravleniya i kontrol’noy deyatel’nosti v real’nom sektore ekonomiki [Methods of Digital Economy in Terms of Management and Control Activities in the Real Economy]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2019, no 3, pp. 44–56, DOI: 10.33917/es-3.161.2019.44-56

6. Loshchinin A.A. Informatizatsiya v administrativnykh sistemakh [Informatization in Administrative Systems]. Moscow, 1999.

7. Loshchinin A.A. Bol’shaya informatizatsiya malykh territoriy [Big Informatization of small Territories]. Informatsionnye tekhnologii territorial’nogoupravleniya, 2002, no 36.

8. Loshchinin A.A. Tekhnologii informatizatsii administrativnykh organov territoriy [Technologies for Informatization of Administrative bodies of Territories].

Informatika i vychislitel’naya tekhnika, 1997, no 4, pp. 31–35.

9. Loshchinin A.A. Informatsionnye modeli territorial’nykh administrativnykh system [Information Models of Territorial Administrative Systems]. Informatsionnye tekhnologii v strukturakh gosudarstvennoy sluzhby, Moscow, RAGS, 1999.

10. Loshchinin A.A. Osnovy prikladnoy biznes-informatiki [Fundamentals of applied Business Informatics]. Saransk, 2017, 422 p.

11. Loshchinin A.A. CASE — sreda dlya informatizatsii administrativnykh sistem na osnove IPD-tekhnologii [CASE is an Environment for Informatization of Administrative Systems based on IPD technology]. Informatsionnye tekhnologii v strukturakh gosudarstvennoy sluzhby, Moscow, RAG S, 2001.

Isn’t it Time to “Check the Boxes” of What is Permitted?

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.46-51

The problem of the economic policies ontology is examined. Paradigms define practices and scenarios for the future. Crisis of the “mainstream” and the polymorphic structure of the world economy imply an intensive search for new theoretical and practical solutions.

References:

1. Smolyan G.L. Refleksivnoe upravlenie — tekhnologiya prinyatiya manipulyativnykh resheniy [Reflexive Management — Technology for Making Manipulative Decisions]. Trudy ISA RAN, 2013, vol. 63, no 2. Tsentr gumanitarnykh tekhnologiy, 2016, 25 sentyabrya, available at: https://gtmarket.ru/library/articles/7309

2. Lepsky Vladimir E. Reflexive Control in Multi-Subjective and Multi-Agent Systems. Proceedigs of the Workshop on Multi-Reflexive Models of Agent Behavior. ARL-SR-64, May 1999, pp. 111–117.

3. Ageev A.I., Kuroedov B.V., Met’yuz R., Sandarov O.S. Metodologiya strategicheskoy matritsy [Strategic Matrix Methodology]. Monografiya. Moscow, INES, 2004, 152 p. (Strategicheskoe prevoskhodstvo. Seriya MLSU)

4. Global’nyy reyting integral’noy moshchi 100 stran: Doklad-2012 [Global Rating of Integral Power of 100 Countries: Report 2012]. 3-e izd., pererab. i dop. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnaya akademiya issledovaniy budushchego, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategiy, 2012, 108 p.

5. Strategiya natsional’noy bezopasnosti SShA 2022 [US National Security Strategy 2022]. Rossiyskiy pravovoy portal: Biblioteka Pashkova. 2011. 16 marta.

URL: https://constitutions.ru/?p=5292

6. Ponomarev V.P. Polimorfnaya gamma-shkala ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [Polymorphic Gamma-Scale of Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 1, pp. 106–111, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.106-111

7. Mityaev D.A. O dinamike samorazrusheniya mirovoy finansovoy sistemy (stsenarii i strategii). Vozmozhnosti adaptatsii i vybor strategii dlya Rossii: Stsenarno-igrovoy doklad [On the Dynamics of Self-Destruction of the Global Financial System (Scenarios and Strategies). Adaptation Possibilities and Choice of Strategy for Russia: Scenario-Game Report]. Moscow, INES, 2009, 61 p.

8. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. New Deal — 2008 — “novaya sdacha”. Bludnye ucheniki Franklina Ruzvel’ta [New Deal — 2008 — “New Change”. Franklin Roosevelt’s Prodigal Disciples]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009, vol. 11, no 2, pp. 31–36.

Strategic Prospects of the Demographic Component of Russia’s National Strength

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.38-53

Demographic situation largely determines the strategic prospects of our country in the context of fierce multifactorial competition between various countries of the world and their bilateral and multilateral alliances. The ar ticle examines dynamics of the Russian population trends, individual causes of male excess mor tality, the main factors for increasing the birth rate and also provides a quantitative assessment of the ef fectiveness of some of the above. To assess the consequences an agent-based demographic model of Russia was used and a sof tware package, developed jointly with researchers from China, was applied to make a long-term forecast of our country’s population.

References:

1. Putin zayavil, chto rossiyan dolzhno byt’ bol’she, i oni dolzhny byt’ zdorovy [Putin Said that there Should be More Russians, and they Should be Healthy].TASS, 2022, 9 iyunya, available at: https://tass.ru/obschestvo/14871349

2. Asel’ Gereikhanova. Vladimir Putin poruchil v 2023 godu dobit’sya rosta zarplat, rozhdaemosti i prodolzhitel’nosti zhizni [Vladimir Putin Instructed to Achieve an Increase in Wages, birth Rates and Life Expectancy in 2023]. Rossiiskaya gazeta, 2023, 29 yanvarya, available at: https://rg.ru/2023/01/29/zadachidlia-razvitiia.html

3. Demografiya [Demography]. Rosstat, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/12781

4. Andreev E. M., Darskii L. E., Khar’kova T. L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993.

5. Rosstat [Website], available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru

6. Makarov V. L., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Khabriev B. R. Natsional’naya sila stran mira: otsenka i prognoz [National Strength of the Countries in the World:

Evaluation and Forecast]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6(186), pp. 38–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

7. Vsemirnyi bank [Website], available at: https://data.worldbank.org

8. Uroven’ smertnosti: Sravnitel’naya informatsiya po stranam [Mortality Rates: Comparative Information by Country], available at: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison

9. Demografiya: Prognoz [Demographics: Forecast], available at: https://www.agents.media/demografia-prognoz

10. Makarov V. L., Nigmatulin R. I., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Sushko E. D., Sidorenko M.Yu. Tsifrovoi dvoinik (iskusstvennoe obshchestvo) sotsial’noekonomicheskoi

sistemy Rossii — platforma dlya eksperimentov v sfere upravleniya demograficheskimi protsessami [The Digital Twin (Artificial Society) of the Socio-Economic System of Russia is a Platform for Experiments in the Field of Managing Demographic Processes]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no

2(182), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.6-19.

11. Chislo rodivshikhsya (bez mertvorozhdennykh) za god [Number of Births (Excluding Stillbirths) per Year]. EMISS. Gosudarstvennaya statistika, available at: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/31606

Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

Key parameters of attacks directions on the Russian economy and forecasts of the expected results, which previously have inspired confidence in Western states that political regime would inevitability fall, which stimulated the US and EU sanctions activity, were developed by a number of authoritative Western expert structures. Western strategies for collapsing the Russian economy in 2022–2023 with the help of sanctions, formed on the basis of these forecasts, did not bring the desired result. At the same time, alternative forecasts of a group of Russian scientists from the CEMI RAS and their Chinese colleagues on stability of the economies of Russia and China in the event of a friendly policy in the context of trade wars with the US and the EU, made in 2019, were fully confirmed. At the core of these forecasts there are analytical tools based on agent modeling.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

3. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, vol. 90, no 2, pp. 169–179.

4. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Sovremennye instrumenty otsenki posledstvii mirovykh torgovykh voin [Modern Tools for Assessing the Effects of World Trade Wars]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2019, vol. 89, no 7, pp. 745–754.

5. Tsigas M., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Mahlstein K. Potential economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. Voxeu.org, 2022, available at: https://voxeu.org/article/potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia.

6. Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 2022, no 45, pp. 3344–3383, available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311.

7. Bryan R., Johnson G., Sytsma T., Priebe M. Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022, available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-5.

8. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen, Benjamin Kett. Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper. 2023. No. WP 23/73.