DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.38-53

Demographic situation largely determines the strategic prospects of our country in the context of fierce multifactorial competition between various countries of the world and their bilateral and multilateral alliances. The ar ticle examines dynamics of the Russian population trends, individual causes of male excess mor tality, the main factors for increasing the birth rate and also provides a quantitative assessment of the ef fectiveness of some of the above. To assess the consequences an agent-based demographic model of Russia was used and a sof tware package, developed jointly with researchers from China, was applied to make a long-term forecast of our country’s population.

References:

1. Putin zayavil, chto rossiyan dolzhno byt’ bol’she, i oni dolzhny byt’ zdorovy [Putin Said that there Should be More Russians, and they Should be Healthy].TASS, 2022, 9 iyunya, available at: https://tass.ru/obschestvo/14871349

2. Asel’ Gereikhanova. Vladimir Putin poruchil v 2023 godu dobit’sya rosta zarplat, rozhdaemosti i prodolzhitel’nosti zhizni [Vladimir Putin Instructed to Achieve an Increase in Wages, birth Rates and Life Expectancy in 2023]. Rossiiskaya gazeta, 2023, 29 yanvarya, available at: https://rg.ru/2023/01/29/zadachidlia-razvitiia.html

3. Demografiya [Demography]. Rosstat, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/12781

4. Andreev E. M., Darskii L. E., Khar’kova T. L. Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922–1991 [Population of the Soviet Union: 1922–1991]. Moscow, Nauka, 1993.

5. Rosstat [Website], available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru

6. Makarov V. L., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Khabriev B. R. Natsional’naya sila stran mira: otsenka i prognoz [National Strength of the Countries in the World:

Evaluation and Forecast]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6(186), pp. 38–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.38-51

7. Vsemirnyi bank [Website], available at: https://data.worldbank.org

8. Uroven’ smertnosti: Sravnitel’naya informatsiya po stranam [Mortality Rates: Comparative Information by Country], available at: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/death-rate/country-comparison

9. Demografiya: Prognoz [Demographics: Forecast], available at: https://www.agents.media/demografia-prognoz

10. Makarov V. L., Nigmatulin R. I., Il’in N. I., Bakhtizin A. R., Sushko E. D., Sidorenko M.Yu. Tsifrovoi dvoinik (iskusstvennoe obshchestvo) sotsial’noekonomicheskoi

sistemy Rossii — platforma dlya eksperimentov v sfere upravleniya demograficheskimi protsessami [The Digital Twin (Artificial Society) of the Socio-Economic System of Russia is a Platform for Experiments in the Field of Managing Demographic Processes]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no

2(182), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.6-19.

11. Chislo rodivshikhsya (bez mertvorozhdennykh) za god [Number of Births (Excluding Stillbirths) per Year]. EMISS. Gosudarstvennaya statistika, available at: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/31606

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.191.2023.6-21

The chronicle of the situation development, which actually came very close to a global military catastrophe, only outwardly looks like a random kaleidoscope of events. Behind the chaos of events, are becoming more evident extremely strict strategic schemes for operating with global power factors in various spheres of activit y: political, military, economic, etc. The article outlines the systemic elements of an approach that considers military conflict in general and Special military operation in particular as a militarized form of struggle for power — an instrument of global economic regulation of economic activit y. This approach makes it possible to focus the key components of Russia’s necessary strategy in the context of a new round of struggle between imperialist predators for the format of systemic and structural redivision of the world that they need.

References:

1. Ageev A.I. Kholodnaya voina — 2.0: realii i perspektivy [Cold War — 2.0: Realities and Prospects]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, vol. 17, no 2(128), pp. 74–79.

2. Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R., Vu Ts., Vu Z. Gibridnye voiny v makroekonomicheskoi supersisteme XXI veka [Hybrid Wars in the Macroeconomic Supersystem of the XXI Century]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 2(188), pp. 6–23, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6–23

3. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskii fundament pobedy: strategicheskii prognoz ustoichivosti ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

4. Denisov A.A., Denisova E.V. Kratkii ocherk osnov teorii upravlyaemoi konfrontatsii [Brief Outline of the Theory of Controlled Confrontation]. Informatsionnye voiny, 2014, no 1, pp. 24–33.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii: Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of complex organizational and technical systems in conditions of supercritical situations: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskaya predopredelennost’ spetsial’nykh voennykh operatsii v mirovoi supersisteme [Strategic Predetermination of Special Military Operations in the World Supersystem]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 4(190), no 6–19, DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19

Different interpretations of Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine, as a rule, do not reveal the systemic nature of such operations as a universal tool for resolving accumulated contradictions in the world community and critical disproportions in the global economy. In this regard, it seems necessary to give analysis of the strategic predetermination of special military operations in the world supersystem as a fundamental pattern of maintaining the controllability of society in its many manifestations at the present stage. Basically the matter is determined by new management methodology.

References:

1. Alekseenkova E.S. Reaktsiya ital’yanskoi Respubliki na spetsial’nuyu voennuyu operatsiyu Rossii na Ukraine [Reaction of the Italian Republic to the Russian Special Military Operation in Ukraine]. Analiticheskie zapiski Instituta Evropy RAN, 2022, no 1(29), pp. 63–70.

2. Batyuk V.I. Dialog mezhdu SShA i RF po probleme strategicheskoi stabil’nosti posle nachala spetsoperatsii na Ukraine [Dialogue between the United States and Russian Federation on the Strategic Stability Issue after the Beginning of the Special Operation in Ukraine]. Rossiya i Amerika v XXI

veke, 2022, no 3.

3. Belov V.B. Reaktsiya Germanii na spetsial’nuyu voennuyu operatsiyu RF na territorii Ukrainy [Germany’s Reaction to the Special Military Operation of the Russian Federation on the Territory of Ukraine]. Analiticheskie zapiski Instituta Evropy RAN, 2022, no 1(29), pp. 56–62.

4. Golovachev V.Ts., Perminova V.A. Reaktsiya Taivanya na spetsial’nuyu voennuyu operatsiyu RF na Ukraine (kratkii obzor) [Taiwan’s Reaction to the Special Military Operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine (brief review)]. Vostochnaya analitika, 2022, vol 13, vol. 2, pp. 22–31.

5. Denisov I.P., Krasnoslobodtsev V.P., Lyubichev V.A., Raskin A.V., Tarasov I.V. Strategii informatsionnogo protivoborstva v sovremennoi voine [Strategies of Information Confrontation in Modern Warfare]. Informatsionnye voiny, 2022, no 3(63), pp. 2–5.

6. Latypov R.F. Spetsial’naya voennaya operatsiya na Ukraine: situatsionnyi analiz [Special Military Operation in Ukraine: Situational Analysis]. Ekonomika i upravlenie: nauchno-prakticheskii zhurnal, 2022, no 2(164), pp. 134–137.

7. Malinetskii G.G. Sistemnyi analiz spetsial’noi voennoi operatsii Rossii na Ukraine [System Analysis of Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine]. Strategicheskaya stabil’nost’, 2022, no 3(100), pp. 22–32.

8. Mikhailenko A.N. Spetsial’naya voennaya operatsiya Rossii na Ukraine: sluchainost’ ili zakonomernost’? [Special Military Operation of Russia in Ukraine: an Accident or a Regularity?]. Voprosy natsional’nykh i federativnykh otnoshenii, 2022, vol. 12, no 4(85), pp. 1431–1448.

9. Rastorguev S.P. Informatsionnoe protivoborstvo v tselyakh i zadachakh [Information Confrontation in Goals and Objectives]. Moscow, LENAND, 2022, 304 p.

10. Orekhova A.D. Ukraina v fokuse geopoliticheskikh interesov RF i SShA: Yuzhnorossiiskoe obozrenie: Materialy Kruglogo stola [Ukraine in the Focus of Geopolitical Interests of the Russian Federation and the United States: South Russian Review: Materials of the Round Table]. Rostov n/D, Fond

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

Key parameters of attacks directions on the Russian economy and forecasts of the expected results, which previously have inspired confidence in Western states that political regime would inevitability fall, which stimulated the US and EU sanctions activity, were developed by a number of authoritative Western expert structures. Western strategies for collapsing the Russian economy in 2022–2023 with the help of sanctions, formed on the basis of these forecasts, did not bring the desired result. At the same time, alternative forecasts of a group of Russian scientists from the CEMI RAS and their Chinese colleagues on stability of the economies of Russia and China in the event of a friendly policy in the context of trade wars with the US and the EU, made in 2019, were fully confirmed. At the core of these forecasts there are analytical tools based on agent modeling.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

3. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, vol. 90, no 2, pp. 169–179.

4. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Sovremennye instrumenty otsenki posledstvii mirovykh torgovykh voin [Modern Tools for Assessing the Effects of World Trade Wars]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2019, vol. 89, no 7, pp. 745–754.

5. Tsigas M., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Mahlstein K. Potential economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. Voxeu.org, 2022, available at: https://voxeu.org/article/potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia.

6. Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 2022, no 45, pp. 3344–3383, available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311.

7. Bryan R., Johnson G., Sytsma T., Priebe M. Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022, available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-5.

8. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen, Benjamin Kett. Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper. 2023. No. WP 23/73.

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.6-23

We do care about what the foreseeable future will be… The recent period has clearly shown that expectations of W estern experts regarding the planned collapse of Russian and Chinese economies have not materialized. The ar ticle analyzes the main pressure tools and strategies of the main global politics actors on peripheral countries in order to solve the accumulated problems associated with increased debts and the need for fur ther trade expansion. Aggregated forecast scenarios for the situation development in relation to the GDP growth/fall of the leading countries of the world are structured.

The authors’ calculations proved that, despite the risks and threats of fur ther sanctions escalation and other restrictions, the implemented macroeconomic policy of Russia and China ensures preser vation of their key socio-economic indicators, providing national sovereignty.

References:

1. US Debt Clock, available at: https://www.usdebtclock.org.

2. Global wealth databook. 2021. Credit Suisse, 2021, June, available at: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/
publications/global-wealth-databook-2021.pdf.

3. National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2023. Office of the Under Secretary of Defense. United States Department of Defense, 2022, July, available at: https://comptroller.defense.gov/Budget-Materials/Budget2023/

4. Temnaya zima: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Dark Winter: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/exercises/2001_dark-winter/about.html.

5. Atlanticheskii shtorm: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Atlantic Storm: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/exercises/2005_atlantic_storm/index.html.

6. Meropriyatie 201: Dannye Tsentra bezopasnosti zdorov’ya Dzhona Khopkinsa [Event 201: Data from the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center]. Center for Health Security, available at: https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/exercises/event201/

7. Puteshestvie po Shveitsarii v usloviyakh pandemii COVID-19: polnoe rukovodstvo na dekabr’ 2021 goda [Traveling Switzerland During the COVID-19

Pandemic: The Ultimate Guide for December 2021]. Swiss Info, 2021, 2 dekabrya, available at: https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business/wealthy-enjoy–benefits-

-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/46725912.

8. Milliardery [Billionaires]. Americans for Tax Fairness. 2022. 14 aprelya. URL: https://americansfortaxfairness.org/issue/tax-day-americas-workingfamilies-

paying-fair-share-americas-billionaires-not.

9. Vozvrashchayas’ k mezhdunarodnoi roli dollara SShA [Revisiting the International Role of the US Dollar]. BIS. Bank mezhdunarodnykh raschetov, 2022, 5 dekabrya, available at: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212x.htm#:~:text=Approximately%20half%20of%20global%20trade,(see%20CGFS%20(2020)).