DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

Key parameters of attacks directions on the Russian economy and forecasts of the expected results, which previously have inspired confidence in Western states that political regime would inevitability fall, which stimulated the US and EU sanctions activity, were developed by a number of authoritative Western expert structures. Western strategies for collapsing the Russian economy in 2022–2023 with the help of sanctions, formed on the basis of these forecasts, did not bring the desired result. At the same time, alternative forecasts of a group of Russian scientists from the CEMI RAS and their Chinese colleagues on stability of the economies of Russia and China in the event of a friendly policy in the context of trade wars with the US and the EU, made in 2019, were fully confirmed. At the core of these forecasts there are analytical tools based on agent modeling.

References:

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Mirovoe soobshchestvo v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskoi bifurkatsii Upravlenie slozhnymi organizatsionnymi i tekhnicheskimi sistemami v usloviyakh sverkhkriticheskikh situatsii: Materialy mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [World Community in Conditions of Supercritical Bifurcation: Management of Complex Organizational and Technical Systems in Conditions of Supercritical Situations: Proceedings of the international scientific and practical conference]. Moscow, INES, 2022, pp. 9–12.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voina: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-Scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

3. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Mirovye torgovye voiny: stsenarnye raschety posledstvii [World Trade Wars: Scenario Calculations of Consequences]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2020, vol. 90, no 2, pp. 169–179.

4. Makarov V.L., Vu Ts., Vu Z., Khabriev B.R., Bakhtizin A.R. Sovremennye instrumenty otsenki posledstvii mirovykh torgovykh voin [Modern Tools for Assessing the Effects of World Trade Wars]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, 2019, vol. 89, no 7, pp. 745–754.

5. Tsigas M., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Mahlstein K. Potential economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. Voxeu.org, 2022, available at: https://voxeu.org/article/potential-economic-effects-allied-trade-embargo-russia.

6. Mahlstein K., McDaniel C., Schropp S., Tsigas M. Estimating the economic effects of sanctions on Russia: An Allied trade embargo. The World Economy, 2022, no 45, pp. 3344–3383, available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13311.

7. Bryan R., Johnson G., Sytsma T., Priebe M. Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence? Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022, available at: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-5.

8. Bolhuis A. Marijn, Jiaqian Chen, Benjamin Kett. Fragmentation in Global Trade: Accounting for Commodities. IMF Working Paper. 2023. No. WP 23/73.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.72-79

The article is devoted to the analysis of the specifics of the business international expansion of large Chinese state-owned companies in the oil and gas sector: China National Oil and Gas Corporation (CNPC), China Petrochemical Corporation (SINOPEC), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). The article examines the strategic guidelines of the companies, the factors influencing the strategies, formats and forms of expansion, regional specifics of business internationalization, trends in the development of activities in foreign markets. The problems of specialization and business diversification of the studied companies are considered. Special attention is paid to the role of the state in the processes of international expansion of Chinese oil and gas companies.

Источники:

1. Bhattacharyya S. China and the Global Energy Crisis: Development and Prospects for China’s Oil and Natural Gas. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 2017, Vol. 1, N 2, pp. 56–61.

2. Shell sells shale stake to China. International Gas Report, 2012, February, 13.

3. PetroChina snaps up remainder of AOSC’s MacKay River project. The Oil and Gas Journal, 2018, January, 16, pp. 71–75.

4. Devon and Sinopec team up for five-play venture. Upstream, 2019, January, 6, pp. 32–37.

5. Neftyanaya i neftepererabatyvayushchaya promyshlennost’ Kitaya [Oil and Refining Industry in China]. TsDU TEK, 2020, March, 30, available at: http://www.cdu.ru/tek_russia/articles/1/725/

6. Ghemawat P. Strategy and the Business Landscape. 3rd ed., Prentice Hall, 2010.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.176.2021.6-15

Increased interest in China is due not only to its successes in combating the pandemic — the PRC is the only major country in the world that has managed to maintain a positive economic growth dynamics. Moreover, more than 40 years of successful reforms certainly make the Chinese experience deserving special attention and study. The present article analyzes the spatial development of China over the past decades, which in addition to a component purely economically measured by percentage of GDP growth of the country and individual regions, has got important social, demographic, cultural, historical and ethnic components

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.175.2021.136-141

The article examines the problem of emergence in East Asia of a regional trading center (hub) for liquefied natural gas (LNG) with its own independent price index, which can become the basis for pricing in long-term contracts for supplying gas to the countries of this region. The author identifies the main factors stimulating Asian players in the gas market to pass to a new pricing system while signing gas purchase contracts. The countries — the main candidates for creating their own LNG hub — are considered. The article analyzes current situation and the prospects for developing regional LNG hubs in such countries as China, Japan and Singapore.

The paper also identifies the main obstacles to creating developed exchange trade of LNG in the Asia-Pacific countries and estimates the most likely places for the emergence of a gas hub.

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.175.2021.50-61

In China, the strategy for the national information infrastructure development is implementing a large-scale and unparalleled project for developing artificial intelligence and its application to solving critical problems. Threats and risks of the current stage left no choice to China. The best Soviet and Russian developments of centralized planning and modeling are actively used, advanced American experience in applying neuroinformation technologies to influence society is being adopted. In fact, a neuroinformational mega-matrix is being formed, which will allow the Chinese authorities to keep the seething mass of people and organizations within a controlled circuit. Configuring cognitive communications in the socio-technical system “person — infocommunication environment — the state” allows to develop a social credit model for forming behavior vectors in large groups of the population with culling disloyal in behaviour (implemented now) and disloyal in thinking (soon to be implemented) human units of the China-community

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.56-65

Regular meeting of the Bogomolov Club, held at the Institute for Economic Strategies on January 28, 2020, was dedicated to the issues of trade and economic war between the USA and China. The keynote address was delivered by the famous Russian sinologist, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Center for Social and Economic Research of China at the RAS Institute of the Far East, member of the Russian Association of Sinologists, the European Association of Chinese Studies Andrey V. Ostrovsky.

The article contains the author’s summary on the 2018 Chengdu Global Think Tanks Forum (China) with the active participation of the Russian delegation and a critical review of the events and a number of reports within the event framework. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the role and capabilities of the think tanks created by the BRICS countries, to identify the benefits and threats of global governance, as well as to promote the results of research activities initiated and realized by scientists and experts from countries with developing, emerging and transforming markets.

This article contains the results of joint scientific and diplomatic work of the two research groups — from the Chinese and Russian side: under the leadership of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China (RDCY) and Counselor to the President of the Russian Federation. The uniqueness of this publication lies in the fact that a reader has the opportunity to observe the joint work including analysis of the Sino-Russian financial and economic cooperation benefits and “bottlenecks” of scientists, heads of leading institutions and officials in real time and in the process of coordinating the positions of the parties, to understand the complexity of diplomatic work and to assess the importance of agreements and results having been achieved.

The article is dedicated to forming the Russian cluster of transport-transit and fuel-energy corridors of Eurasia as a Russian counterpart partner project integrated with the Chinese Economic belt of the Silk Road. The authors substantiate the necessity of creating the Eurasian distributed mega-hub, oriented to consolidated management for the use of the transport-transit and fuel-energy infrastructure of Russia and other states-participants of the EAEU, combined with a similar Chinese infrastructure. The technological base of such a project is the infrastructure for production and transportation of fuel, energy, raw materials, food and other resources and for provision of logistics and other services in the structure of infrastructure-transport directions (corridors) “China–Russia–Europe” and “Russia–China–Asia”. It is proposed to change Russia’s business positioning in cooperation with China for its integration as a key operator in the structure of providing transport and transit services and supplying fuel and energy resources in Europe and Asia. On this basis, it is possible to form mechanisms both for coordinating trade of products and resources, as well as agreeing in mutually beneficial interests between Russia and China on various technological, economic, information and other aspects that ensure synchronization of the processes of rendering transport and transit services and energy supply to consumers in different territorial zones of national economies of Europe and Asia.

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