The "Economic Strategies" journal

2020 #3 2020 First Need




Model of Assessing the Balance of the Budgets of Subjects of the Russian Federation

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.24-29

Over the past decade, new trends have emerged, political and technological, which will set the conditions for the development of global economic processes in the near future. Within the framework of the modern paradigm, qualitative economic growth is possible only in the case of large-scale introduction of innovations and digital technologies, which is possible while ensuring macroeconomic stability. The article discusses the issues of quantitative assessment, based on the developed economic and mathematical model, the level of budget balance of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. When forming the model of the category “macroeconomic stability”, the methods of regression, correlation and factor analysis were used. An index method has been used as a quantitative assessment tool. A calculation-experimental method was used to prove the realism of the developed model, and to give a quantitative assessment using examples of constituent entities of the Russian Federation that are part of the Volga and Siberian federal districts. The results obtained develop scientific knowledge in the field of regional economics, and their practical use will allow to purposefully and reasonably solve the problems of regional and leading development management.

Geopolitics, Geostrategy and Geoeconomics: Reflections on the Changing Force Factors in the International System

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.30-41

Beginning the article with reminding some basic definitions of geopolitics, correlation of spatial and temporal components herein as well as the systemic nature of geopolitics as a science and the basis for a long-term political strategy, the author proceeds to the topic of relationship between geopolitics and geoeconomics, particularly significant in recent decades. He puts forward the idea that geoeconomics today is an increasingly dynamic and actively driving element in this dyad due to growing technological innovations, increasing competition and subsequent rising complexity of economic strategies of states. Based on well-known examples of economic and political outcomes of applying the state capitalism models or liberal economy, in particular, in the countries that have undergone a radical breakdown of their former economic systems (Russia is also briefly mentioned in this context), the author concludes that it is necessary to form a strategic state, able to develop a sustainable mechanism (including economic intelligence) for development and implementation of national geoeconomics. To support the provisions put forward in the article, the author, as an independent expert, gives a broad outline of geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts in the world in the coming decades.

Brexit Problem as a Component of the EU System Crisis: Analysis Based on Systemic Methodology in the Context of Reproduction Theory

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.42-49

The article analyzes the Brexit problem, the solution of which has been delayed: four years passed from the referendum on Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union (February 16, 2016) till signing of the Brexit Act by Prime Minister Boris Johnson (January 31, 2020). The article’s novelty consists in assessing Brexit as a manifestation of the system crisis of the European Union (EU), officially recognized by the European authorities in 2015 due to violation of the development regularities of the European integration and the global crisis consequences. Based on systemic methodology in the aspect of reproduction theory, the internal and external causes of Brexit are analyzed. The author identifies a change in the US attitude to Brexit — from Barack Obama’s negative position to active support by Donald Trump in order to break down the European Union as a collective competitor composed of twenty-eight integrated countries. This is facilitated by the loss of economic sovereignty of the EU countries under US pressure. Possible British benefits and risks of losses as a result of exit from the EU are analyzed.

Eurozone on the Verge of Widespread Negative Interest Rates

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.50-54

The global economy, including the eurozone, experienced a shock in 2008. As one of the consequences, central banks of the largest economies in the world, in order to support economic activity, reduced interest rates on loans. Although 11 years have passed, in the eurozone lending rates still remain extremely low. This indicates that the monetary union has not yet recovered from the post-crisis state. In fact, more and more probable is becoming a recently inconceivable scenario that the eurozone for a long time will get into the era of negative interest rates.

Trade War Between the USA and China: Who will Win?

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.56-65

Regular meeting of the Bogomolov Club, held at the Institute for Economic Strategies on January 28, 2020, was dedicated to the issues of trade and economic war between the USA and China. The keynote address was delivered by the famous Russian sinologist, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the Center for Social and Economic Research of China at the RAS Institute of the Far East, member of the Russian Association of Sinologists, the European Association of Chinese Studies Andrey V. Ostrovsky.

Russian-Chinese Infrastructure Cooperation

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.66-73

The article dwells on the infrastructure cooperation between Russia and China as one of the main areas of interaction between two countries at the present stage. The paper analyzes problems of creating the Trans-Eurasian Development Belt (TEDB), formation of the Far Eastern transport and logistics cluster (Primorye-1 and Primorye-2), construction of the Eurasian Sea Canal between Caspian and Azov Seas. Particular attention is paid to forming the Arctic vector of the Silk Road. The author concludes that it is necessary to create a number of transport and logistics corridors with developing the corresponding industrial clusters inside them, as well as to organize international consortia for the projects implementation.

Transformation of Russia’s Presence in Kyrgyzstan

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.74-79

The article dwells on the changing role of Russia in Kyrgyzstan, identifies trends of the main country’s indicators in trade and direct investment, describes humanitarian cooperation between two countries. The authors make an assessment of Kyrgyzstan’s economic potential, examine the main industries and agriculture of the country, identify its investment attractiveness for foreign partners.

Invisible Dysontogenesis of X, Y, Z Generations (Transformation of Social Subjectivity Features)

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.80-89

The article analyzes the causes of population dysontogenesis-a hidden process of loss of human subjectivity: the destruction of its psychophysiological and psychosocial qualities necessary for the normal activity of society. Violations caused by unformed structures of the child’s brain during the period of socialization in the family and school are hardly noticeable in a state of comfort, but they manifest themselves under normative and especially peak psychophysiological loads: deviant behaviors, educational failure, deterioration of health and loss of reproductive functions.
The consolidation of dysontogenesis in generations X, Y, and Z occurs through international educational standards that simplify educational programs and reduce didactic requirements to a level beyond which pathophenomenes become barely noticeable, but continue to accumulate statistically at the lower limit of the norm. Compensation for impaired functions occurs at the expense of modern means of digital communication-there is a non-specific “swarm” subjectivity: emotionally unstable, easily suggestible representatives of generations Y and Z become the main resource base of extremist and terrorist organizations.
The loss of basic social functions of goal-setting and control, empathy and passionarity in generations X, Y, Z, a simplified view of reality, increased lability and network conformism, decreased libido, and redirection of creative energy to the virtual-all this leads to the cessation of reproduction of the properties of society as a system structure. Restoration of systemogenetic development is possible only if the basic functions of the social state — science, education and upbringing-are provided.