DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.180.2021.20-29

Demographic dynamics becomes crucially important for successful scenario of the future for both Eurasian integration and each EAEU member state. The “pandemic crisis” caused an increase in excess mortality, reduced social well-being and created serious legal and managerial conflicts. Within the EAEU new barriers to mobility and migration have emerged and social tension has increased. In the existing realities the current supranational solutions are insufficient, they are poorly focused on achieving the demographic security of the EAEU member states. Coordinated actions are needed to significantly improve the demographic situation in the EAEU.

DOI: 10.33917/es-8.174.2020.44-55

The article examines scenarios of a long-term demographic situation and politics, evolution of the value orientations, the latest approaches to assessing the development sustainability, the dispositional theory of demographic behavior

Calculation data of the multifactorial “Strategic Matrix” model methodology showed stability of the relatively low value of Russia’s integral index. However, just such static character of the calculated indicator means an increase of problems in the Russian society, which is evidently shown by hard decline in social support for the authorities activities. Another reelection of V.V. Putin as the President of Russia did not result in prospects for a way out of the crisis in the minds of Russian citizens.

The author’s analysis of UN demographic statistics revealed two internal problems that objectively impede to the BRICS countries to become new drivers of global economic growth — reduction of economically active population and increase of the social burden on one working person in the form of reducing the potential support ratio. Projected labour shortage could trigger serious socio-economic upheavals in the nearest future.

The authors have studied the possibility of taking into account the human rationality factor in the analysis of global problems of demography and energy. For this purpose, analogues of chemical kinetics and the idea of human communities as an open thermodynamic system were applied. The demography of sapientation was divided into two conventional energy zones — northern and southern, which differ in climatic and geophysical conditions. The sapientation process was formalized by correlating the number of creative and educated people with the amount of external energy they convert into new valuable information. The sapientation kinetics was modeled completing the formalism of the act of a person’s birth with a stage of his education requiring the involvement of at least one teacher from among educated people. The second-order kinetic equation, describing the growth of an equal population of men and women of reproductive age, was transformed into an equation of the third and higher orders. The stationary solution of these equations determines the optimal demography for sustainable noospheric development of the population in accordance with its education index. Real and durable solutions to the demographic and energy problems are proposed.

The article examines the phenomenon of BRICS, which has now acquired a global visibility. The article focuses on the main potential of the BRICS countries — human capital, those demographic resources that, being combined with a growing economy and a standard of living, can break the current picture of the world.

When calculating the final integral index for the Russian Federation, determined according to the methodology of multifactor “Strategic matrix” model, the authors once again noted the low level of this indicator in 2015. It has not changed in comparison with the previous year. But in the factors context they have identified a tendency of compensating the key social indices lowering due to the growth of the secondary ones. Its presence is confirmed by opinion polls of the Public Opinion Foundation, that is, by how the Russians themselves assess changes in their daily life and the state of affairs in solving the problems they face.

Analyzing actual data of the RF subjects social development, the authors note: as follows from calculation data of integral indicators, defined on the basis of the multifactor model methodology “Strategic matrix of the RF region”, developed by the Institute for Economic Strategies, negative economic trends have not yet practically effected the population living conditions. On the contrary, the all-Russian 2014 final index has even slightly increased compared to the previous year index.

As follows from the calculation of the integral indices of the RF subjects social potential, determined based on the multifactor model methodology called “Strategic Matrix of the RF region”, worked out by the Institute for Economic Strategies, the development of social conditions cannot be considered even and uniform. Good data is demonstrated in those three of the nine factors that are directly related to reanimation of economic growth in the country — these factors are “Employment”, “Living conditions” and “Crime”.

The main objective of the round table “Radical improvement of public health — an essential condition of the Russian society and economy modernization” is deeper understanding of the health systems impact on the state of population health and critical analysis of the latest evidence on effective strategies for improving health systems functioning with regard to increasing demands to ensure their sustainability and the principle of solidarity.