The "Economic Strategies" journal

#6. 2021. Without Losing the Trunk

The EAEU Demography and Human Capital: Trends and Losses in the Context of a Pandemic


Demographic dynamics becomes crucially important for successful scenario of the future for both Eurasian integration and each EAEU member state. The “pandemic crisis” caused an increase in excess mortality, reduced social well-being and created serious legal and managerial conflicts. Within the EAEU new barriers to mobility and migration have emerged and social tension has increased. In the existing realities the current supranational solutions are insufficient, they are poorly focused on achieving the demographic security of the EAEU member states. Coordinated actions are needed to significantly improve the demographic situation in the EAEU.

Budget Subsidies + “Private Concession Initiative” = Stopper for Social Infrastructure Development


The overwhelming majority of social infrastructure facilities remain in state ownership, requiring special formats for attracting private investment without possibility of disposition and loss of their destination. Mechanism of public-private partnership doesn’t leave any other option for such projects, and the “private concession initiative”, which has become widespread in recent years, is best suited for projects focused on commercial activities, although this limits its application to social facilities. Non-competitive basis of this format relies on the market offer of the investor, whose rationality does not imply social behavior and whose activity is obviously not intended for budgetary participation. Recently, there has been an increase in cases of government authorities taking commitments on budgetary co-financing of agreements concluded as a result of such initiatives, which is often fraught with systemic violations of budgetary legislation. Connivance of the control-supervisory and judicial authorities results in formation of skewed law enforcement practice, in 36.2% of projects investors receive

additional rental income from the budget, objectively not justified. This not only results in budget overpayments, but also devalues competitive formats that were previously quite successful — at present only 1/5 of social projects are concluded through a competitive process.


1. Kireeva A.V. Sovremennye problemy institutsional’nogo regulirovaniya ekonomicheskikh otnoshenii v sfere gosudarstvenno-chastnogo partnerstva [Modern Problems of Institutional Regulation of Economic Relations in the Field of Public-Private Partnership]. Vestnik Evraziiskoi nauki, 2020, no 4, available at:

2. Kudelich M.I. Pryamoe soglashenie v proektakh s gosudarstvennym uchastiem: sravnitel’no-pravovoi analiz [Direct Agreement in Projects with State Participation: Comparative Legal Analysis]. Finansovyi zhurnal, 2019, no 6, pp. 57–69, available at: DOI:

3. Ponomarev R.V. Osobennosti regulirovaniya kontsessionnykh soglashenii v zarubezhnykh stranakh [Peculiarities of Regulating Concession Agreements in Foreign Countries]. Innovatsii i investitsii, 2015, no 8, pp. 66–70.

4. Istomina N.A. Konkurentsiya za byudzhetnye sredstva v kontseptsii byudzhetirovaniya, orientirovannogo na rezul’tat [Competition for Budgetary Funds in the Concept of Performance-Based Budgeting]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya, 2014, no 29, pp. 41–47.

5. Gavrilova Yu.A. Monitoring praktiki primeneniya zakonodatel’stva o kontraktnoi sisteme i perspektivy ego sovershenstvovaniya [Monitoring the Practice of Applying Legislation on the Contract System and Prospects for Its Improvement]. Monitoring pravoprimeneniya, 2019, no 3, pp. 36–42, available at: DOI:

6. Belozor F.I. Zakupki dlya gosudarstvennykh nuzhd: garmonizatsiya dobrosovestnoi konkurentsii i ekonomicheskoi effektivnosti [Public Procurement: Harmonizing Fair Competition and Economic Efficiency]. Gosudarstvennoe i munitsipal’noe upravlenie. Uchenye zapiski, 2021, no 1, available at: DOI:

Basic Mechanisms for Developing State Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation


In modern conditions, implementation of sustainable progressive movement of the country by carrying out large-scale structural changes can be realized only on the basis of a centralized identification of areas, goals, priorities of socio-economic development, as well as indicators of strategies, programs and plans interconnected at all levels of the country’s national economy management. Methodologically the article is based on dialectical method of scientific knowledge, as well as systemic and institutional approaches. Scientific periodicals (monographs, scientific articles, etc.) and official documents of legislative and executive authorities of the Russian Federation on the issues of state strategic and long-term planning in Russia and the USSR were used as an information and analytical base. The article dwells on the following issues: 1) as a result of analysis of domestic and foreign literary sources, as well as regulatory and methodological guidelines in the field of state strategic planning, its main shortcomings were identified. According to the authors, these include: dissemination of program-targeted management methods not only into all spheres of socio-economic development, but also to the areas of budget allocations, the lack of sufficient information base of calculations; 2) methodological approach (stages, sequence of work, methods and procedures) to elaborating state programs for the economic development of the country, industries and regions is proposed; 3) application of the methods of hierarchies analysis (MHA) and network modeling (NPM) as the main methods for developing state programs is substantiated; 4) proposals on the composition and structure of the information base for calculating indicators of state programs are given.


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2. Leont’ev V.V. Ekonomicheskie esse. Teoriya issledovaniya, fakty i politika [Economic Essays. Research Theory, Facts and Politics]. Moscow, 2003, 156 p.

3. Kantorovich L.V. Matematicheskie metody organizatsii planirovaniya proizvodstva [Mathematical Methods for Organizing Production Planning]. Moscow, Izd-vo Leningradskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, 1939, 67 p.

4. Afonina I.A., Ivanova O.D., Panasevich O.E. O konferentsii “Strategicheskoe planirovanie v usloviyakh narastaniya vneshnikh ugroz: neobkhodimost’ mobilizatsii vnutrennikh resursov dlya razvitiya Rossii” [On the Conference “Strategic Planning in the Face of Growing External Threats: the Need to Mobilize Internal Resources for the Development of Russia”]. Mikroekonomika, 2014, no 6, pp. 138–144.

5. Buzgalin A.V., Kolganov A.I. Vozrozhdenie planirovaniya, uroki (politiko-ekonomicheskii diskurs) [Revival of Planning, Lessons (Political and Economic Discourse)]. Problemy teorii praktiki upravleniya, 2016, no 1, pp. 8–18.

6. Bukhval’d E.M. Strategicheskii dolgostroi; viden li itog? [Strategic Long-Term Construction; is There Any Result?]. ETAP. Ekonomicheskaya teoriya, analiz, praktika, 2017, no 6, pp. 33–47.

Resilience as a Strategic Imperative in the Age of Uncertainty


The article examines resilience as a new approach to supporting economic growth under the global uncertainty and sudden shocks. We describe resilience as a method for dynamic stabilization of complex systems, as a new imperative for growth policy, and as a new standard of risk management.


1. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D. Raspredelennoe proizvodstvo v usloviyakh shoka pandemii: uyazvimost’, rezil’entnost’ i novyi etap globalizatsii [Distributed Production Under the Pandemic Shock: Vulnerability, Resilience and the New Stage of Globalization]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2021. №12 (V pechati.)

2. Walker J., Cooper M. Genealogies of resilience. Security Dialogue, 2011, Vol. 42, no 2, pp. 143–160.

3. OECD, SIDA. Resilience systems analysis: Learning and recommendations report. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2017.

4. Smorodinskaya N.V. Uslozhnenie organizatsii  ekonomicheskikh sistem v usloviyakh nelineinogo razvitiya [Growing Organizational Complexity of Economic Systems Under Non-Linear Development]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki RAN, 2017, no 5, pp. 104–115.

5. OECD. A systemic resilience approach to dealing with COVID-19 and future shocks. OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19). 2020.

6. Sreedevi R., Saranga H. Uncertainty and supply chain risk: The moderating role of supply chain flexibility in risk mitigation. International Journal of Production Economics, 2017, Vol. 193, pp. 332–342.

7. Linkov I., Trump B. D. The science and practice of resilience. Cham, Springer, 2019.

8. Ivanov D., Dolgui A., Sokolov B. Ripple effect in the supply chain: Definitions, frameworks and future research perspectives. Handbook of ripple effects in the supply chain. Cham, Springer, 2019, pp. 1–33.

9. PIIE. Rebuilding the global economy. PIIE briefing 21-1. Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2021, Washington, DC.

10. Smorodinskaya N. V., Katukov D.D. Rezil’entnost’ ekonomicheskikh sistem v epokhu globalizatsii i vnezapnykh shokov [Resilience of Economic Systems in the Age of Globalization and Sudden Shocks]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki RAN, 2021, no 5, pp. 93–115

11. Smorodinskaya N. V., Malygin V. E., Katukov D.D. Rol’ endogennykh mekhanizmov i faktora slozhnosti v dostizhenii sbalansirovannogo ekonomicheskogo rosta [The Role of Endogenous Mechanisms and the Factor of Complexity in Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki RAN, 2020, no 1, pp. 113–129.

12. Root H.L. Network origins of the global economy: East vs. West in a complex systems perspective. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2020.

On the Projects of the RF Central Bank Dedicated to the Financial Market Development


The Bank of Russia in its systemic documents, published in 2020, presents solution of a wide range of topical issues of the Russian financial system and economy related to providing the real sector with long-term money, the lack of which is one of the key factors restraining the growth of investments and the Russian economy for years. However, implementation of measures proposed in the documents may take more than one year until the economy begins to feel their effect. In this regard, it seems important to consider more systemic mechanisms that will allow to expand the volume of long-term money. In particular, we are talking about approaches based on interaction of the national central bank and the national ministry of finance. Besides, more and more countries in the world are actively applying the indicated mechanisms.


1. Osnovnye napravleniya razvitiya finansovogo rynka Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2022 god i period 2023 i 2024 godov: Proekt ot 30 sentyabrya 2021 g. [Main Directions of Development of the Financial Market of the Russian Federation for 2022 and the Period of 2023 and 2024: Draft Dated September 30, 2021.]. TsBR, available at:

2. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2022 god i period 2023 i 2024 godov [Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy for 2022 and the Period of 2023 and 2024]. TsBR, available at:

3. Aganbegyan A.G., Ershov M.V. Ne stoit melochit’sya. Spasut li Rossiyu dlinnye den’gi? [One Shouldn’t Waste Time on Trifles. Will Long Money Save Russia?]. Argumenty i fakty, 2020, August, 10.

4. Poslanie Prezidenta RF Federal’nomu sobraniyu [Message of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, 2021, April, 21, available at:

5. Ershov M.V. Mir v 2020 godu: novye problemy obnazhayut sistemnye izmeneniya v ekonomike [The World in 2020: New Problems Reveal Systemic Changes in the Economy]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2020, no 12, pp. 5–23.

Institutional Rent in Metallurgy: Ways of Use


The article describes the possible use of institutional rent of the largest metallurgical companies associated with their non-market advantages. The author identifies the channels for obtaining such rent, including differences in the tax burden, difference in the rates of involved financial resources for companies operating in different institutional conditions, state support and benefits from peculiarities of the vertical organization of production. Some estimates of institutional rent are obtained and questions are raised about the income and expenses level, fair for the economy, of the companies that receive it. The directions, in which large companies spend the received rent, are highlighted; it is emphasized that withdrawal of “windfall revenues” can be made only after they are compared with non-market expenses of companies, imputed by the state. At the same time, information on such costs is scattered, inaccurate and therefore requires serious assessment and monitoring. The author substantiates an approach wherein the state and big business are interested to seek a mutually beneficial use of the received institutional rent.



1. Blokhin A.A. Institutsional’naya renta v mnogourovnevoi ekonomike [Institutional Rent in a Multilevel Economy]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2019, no 4, pp. 16–26.

2. Blokhin A.A., Lomakin-Rumyantsev I.V., Naumov S.A. Al’fa-biznes na rossiiskom prodovol’stvennom rynke [Alfa-Business in the Russian Food Market]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2019, no 6, pp. 68–77, available at: DOI:

3. Blokhin A.A., Dranev S.Ya. Razlichiya institutsional’nykh uslovii deyatel’nosti kompanii raznogo razmera na primere chernoi metallurgii [Differences in the Institutional Environment for Companies of Different Sizes by the Case of Ferrous Metallurgy]. Mir novoi ekonomiki, 2019, no 1, pp. 36–47, available at: DOI:

4. Prikaz FNS Rossii ot 30 maya 2007 g. N MM-3-06/333@ (v red. ot 10 maya 2012 g.) “Ob utverzhdenii Kontseptsii sistemy planirovaniya vyezdnykh nalogovykh proverok” [Order of the Federal Tax Service of Russia Dated May 30, 2007 No. MM-3-06/333@ (as Amended on May 10, 2012) “On Approval of the Concept of the Planning System for Field Tax Audits”]. Konsul’tantPlyus, available at:

5. Informatsiya Federal’noi nalogovoi sluzhby ot 23 maya 2019 g. “Sredneotraslevye pokazateli, kharakterizuyushchie finansovo-khozyaistvennuyu deyatel’nost’ nalogoplatel’shchikov za 2018 god” [Information from the Federal Tax Service of May 23, 2019 “Average Industry Indicators Characterizing Financial and Economic Activities of Taxpayers in 2018”]., available at:

6. Finansovoe zdorov’e stal’noi otrasli 2020. Analiz finansovykh pokazatelei publichnykh kompanii — proizvoditelei stali [Financial Health of the Steel Industry 2020. Financial Performance Analysis of Public Companies — Steel Producers]. Kiev, OOO “GMK Tsentr’, 2020.

2021: the Results of Nine Months — Lost Opportunities Accelerating Socio-Economic Development


Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for nine months of 2021 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.


1. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — sentyabre 2021 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January – September 2021: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at:

2. Statistika vneshnego sektora. Vneshnyaya torgovlya RF [External Sector Statistics. Foreign Trade of the Russian Federation]. Tsentral’nyi Bank RF, available at:

3. Informatsiya o zasedanii Soveta bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii po voprosam sovershenstvovaniya sistemy strategicheskogo planirovaniya v Rossiiskoi Federatsii 27 sentyabrya 2021 g. [Information on the Meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation on Improving the Strategic Planning System in the Russian Federation on September 27, 2021]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at:

4. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Sergienko Ya.V., Surkov A.A. 2021: paradoksy yanvarya — maya [2021: Paradoxes of January — May]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 4, pp. 54–59, available at: DOI:

Economic Consequences of Following the Nathaniel Bumpo and Nick Adams Trails


In the proposed paper, the authors consider one of the directions of non-raw material economic development: the prospects for the outdoor recreation industry, and in particular the sub-industry of hunting, fishing and watching. According to the authors, the development of these industries can bring an increase in economic turnover by an amount comparable to the amount of income from the export of Russian arms. The authors consider the positive experience of the development of the outdoor recreation industry in a number of developed countries. In addition, the authors believe that the development of the outdoor recreation industry can contribute to solving such problems as improving the health of the population, consolidating the population in hard-to-reach and remote areas, and increasing the country’s reputation capital due to inbound ecological hunting and fishing tourism.


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2. Roadmap for the 21st Century Outdoor Recreation Economy. Outdoor Recreation Roundtable, available at:

3. Zdravookhranenie Rossii: 2018–2024 gg. [Healthcare of Russia: 2018–2024]. Vysshaya shkola organizatsii i upravleniya zdravookhraneniem, available at:

4. Psikhicheskie zabolevaniya v Rossii: chto proiskhodit [Mental Illness in Russia: What’s Going On]. MEDNovosti, available at:

5. The Effect of Contact with Natural Environments on Positive and Negative Affect: A Meta-Analysis. Digital  Commons@WOU, available at:

6. Study provides insights on links between nature and mental wellbeing. Outlook, available at:

7. Rezervnye territorii: zadacha dlya chelovechestva [Reserve Territories: a Challenge for Humanity]. Livejournal, available at:

8. Raspredelenie naseleniya na territorii Rossii [Population Distribution on the Territory of Russia]. Otechestvennye zapiski, available at:

9. National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, available at:

10. On the Conditions for Developing Hunting and Fishing Tourism in Sweden. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Umeе, 2014, available at:

11. Fritidsfisket i Sverige 2017. Sveriges Officiella Statistik, available at:

Comparison of the Methodology of Statistical Observation in Tourism in the Russian Federation and European Countries


The need to harmonize national and international statistical practices in data collection and presentation is based on the desire for comparability of information. In the Russian Federation and the countries of the European Union, a different approach is used to organize and present the results of statistical observation of the tourism industry, including with respect to the classification of accommodation facilities for tourists, tourist trips according to their purposes. In Russia, they do not collect information on identifying the reasons why the citizens of these countries do not take part in tourism, nor do they register quality characteristics. Analysis of international experience shows that tourism statistics receive a lot of attention, with the focus on polling tourists and collective accommodation facilities. In the Russian system of statistical observation in the field of tourism, despite its constant improvement, there is still an acute shortage of data obtained on the basis of regular sample surveys.


1. Otchety Vsemirnoi turistskoi organizatsii [Reports of the World Tourism Organization]. Vse o turizme, available at:

2. Statisticheskii ezhegodnik YuNVTO [UNWTO Statistical Yearbook]. UNWTO, available at:

3. Prikaz ot 30 maya 2019 g. N 304 “Ob utverzhdenii ofitsial’noi statisticheskoi metodologii formirovaniya otdel’nykh pokazatelei deyatel’nosti kollektivnykh sredstv razmeshcheniya po polnomu krugu khozyaistvuyushchikh sub”ektov s kvartal’noi periodichnost’yu” [The Official Statistical Methodology for the Formation of Individual Indicators of the Activity of Collective Accommodation Facilities for the Full Range of Economic Entities with a Quarterly Frequency, Approved by Order of Rosstat on May 30, 2019 No. 304]. Kodifikatsiya RF, available at:

4. Reglament (ES) 692/2011 Evropeiskogo parlamenta i Soveta po Evropeiskoi statistike turizma [Regulation (EU) 692/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European Tourism Statistics]. EUR-Lex, available at:

5. Roznichnaya torgovlya, uslugi naseleniyu, turizm [Retail Trade, Public Services, Tourism]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at:

6. Prikaz ot 31 oktyabrya 2019 g. N 640 “Ob utverzhdenii Ofitsial’noi statisticheskoi metodologii otsenki chisla v”ezdnykh i vyezdnykh turistskikh poezdok” [The Official Statistical Methodology for Assessing the Number of Inbound and Outbound Tourist Trips, Approved by Order of Rosstat on October 31, 2019 No. 640]. Elektronnyi fond pravovykh i normativno-tekhnicheskikh dokumentov, available at:

7. Prikaz ot 26 fevralya 2021 g. N 109 “Ob utverzhdenii metodiki otsenki turistskogo potoka” [On Approval of the methodology for Assessing the Tourist Flow, Order of February 26, 2021 No. 109] // Elektronnyi fond pravovykh i normativno-tekhnicheskikh dokumentov, available at:

“Soft Power„ Instrument in Promoting International Development


In the present article the authors substantiate the following thesis: in the context of real polycentrism and increased confrontation between the states with liberal system of values and the states that defend real sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs of aid-recipient states through a variety of development assistance tools, exceptionally “soft power” can become an effective mechanism of creating conditions for sustainable development of the world community as a whole. In preparing the study the authors applied the methods of historicism and comparative analysis of approaches to the policy of realizing the “soft power” goals.


1. Abramova A.V., Gabarta A.A., Degterev D.A., Degtereva E.A., Kapitsa L.M. Inostrannaya pomoshch’ [Foreign Aid]. Pod obshch. red. L.M. Kapitsy; MGIMO (U) MID Rossii, kaf. mirovoi ekonomiki. Moscow, MGIMO-Universitet, 2013, p. 8.

2. Abramova A.V., Zav’yalova E.B., Zaitsev Yu.K., Kapitsa L.M, Kozlova O.A. Sodeistvie mezhdunarodnomu razvitiyu. Kurs lektsii [Promotion of International Development. Lecture Course]. Pod red. V.I. Barteneva i E.N. Glazunovoi. Moscow, 2012, 408 p.

3. Roger C. Riddel. Does Foreign Aid Really Work? Oxford University Press, 2008. P. 77.

4. Sodeistvie mezhdunarodnomu razvitiyu kak instrument vneshnei politiki: zarubezhnyi opyt [Promotion of International Development as a Foreign Policy Instrument: Foreign Experience]. Pod red. V.G. Baranovskogo, Yu.D. Kvashnina, N.V. Toganovoi. Moscow, IMEMO RAN, 2018, p. 19.

5. Ligorio V. Vneshnyaya tenevaya politika Rossii: “myagkaya vlast’” i mezhdunarodnoe obrazovanie [Foreign Shadow Policy of Russia: “Soft Power” and International Education]. European science, 2019, no 5, pp. 83–91.

6. Burlinova N. Russian soft power is just like Western soft power, but with a twist. Russia Direct, 2015, April, 7, available at:

7. Conley H., Gerber T., Moore L., David M. Russian Soft Power in the 21st Century: An Examination of Russian Compatriot Policy in Estonia. Washington, 2011, D.C, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, available at:

8. Giragosian R. Soft Power in Armenia: Neither Soft, nor Powerful. European Council on Foreign Relations, 2015, available at:

9. Cheskin A. History, Conflicting Collective Memories, and National Identities: How Latvia’s Russian-Speakers Are Learning to Remember. Nationalities Papers, 2012, vol. 40, iss. 4, pp. 561–584.

10. Ćwiek-Karpowicz J. Limits to Russian Soft Power in the Post-Soviet Area. DGAPanalyse, 2012, available at:

11. Kornilov A., Makarychev A. Russia’s soft power in the South Caucasus: discourses, communication, hegemony. Agadjanian Alexander; Joedicke, Ansgar; van der Zweerde, Evert (Ed.). Religion, Nation and Democracy in the South Caucasus. Routledge Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2015, pp. 238–254.