Uncertainty Management and Strategic Competitiveness of Russia. Engineering Approach

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.24-35

Situation in the country and the world is so complex and uncertain that it is practically impossible to imagine simple, proven forms and tools of management that were used earlier. In response to this challenge, an “engineering approach” is proposed as a synthesis of social and scientific-technological engineering. As the main line for practical application of this approach in the conditions of Russia, the concept of forming the core of strategic action subject within the framework of a new type of social organization, the “Public Engineering Park”, is discussed.

References:

1. Fursov A. Na poroge novogo mira — est’ li sub’ekt strategicheskogo deistviya? ili Zheleznye trebovaniya istoricheskogo protsessa [On the Threshold of a New World — is there a Subject of Strategic Action? or Iron Requirements of the Historical Process]. Sait Andreya Fursova, available at: http://andreyfursov.ru/news/na_poroge_novogo_mira_est_li_subekt_strategicheskogo_dejstvija_ili_zheleznye_trebovan ija_istoricheskogo_processa/2011-03-13-8.

2. Smirnov E.P. Stanet li Rossiya vysokotekhnologichnoi stranoi? [Will Russia Become a High-tech Country?]. Nezavisimaya gazeta, 2003, 12 fevralya, available at: https://www.ng.ru/science/2003-02-12/13_technology.html.

3. Bannykh O. Fabrika intellektual’nogo spetsnaza [Factory of Intellectual Special Forces]. Ekspert. Ural, 2004, 2 fevralya, available at: https://expert.ru/ural/2004/04/04ur-unauk_66655/

4. Smirnov E.P. Rossiya snova na pereput’e. Konkurentosposobnost’ ili degradatsiya: Interv’yu [Russia is at a Crossroads Again. Competitiveness or Degradation: Interview]. Budushchaya Rossiya, 2011, 12 maya, available at: https://futurerussia.ru/extranet/blogs/smirnoff/58/?sphrase_id=441346.

5. Vil’yams Dzh.D. Sovershennyi strateg, ili Bukvar’ po teorii strategicheskikh igr [Perfect Strategist or Primer on the Theory of Strategic Games]. Moscow, Sovetskoe Radio, 1960, 266 p.

6. Smirnov E.P. Media proekt “Balans interesov” [Media Project “Balance of Interests”]. Budushchaya Rossiya, available at: https://futurerussia.ru/upload/iblock/647/Mediaproekt.pdf.

7. Smirnov E.P. Platforma upravleniya razvitiem. Kak naiti balans interesov gosudarstva, biznesa i naseleniya v protsesse formirovaniya I realizatsii programm razvitiya? Inzhenernyi podkhod: Trudy Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii “Institutsional’nye i finansovye mekhanizmy razvitiya territorial’nykh klasterov i tekhnologicheskikh platform”, g. Dubna, 11–12 noyabrya, 2016 g. [Development Management Platform. How to Find a Balance of Interests of the State, Business and Population in the Process of Formation and Implementation of Development Programs? Engineering Approach: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference “Institutional and Financial Mechanisms for the Development of Territorial Clusters and Technological Platforms”, Dubna, November 11–12, 2016]. Budushchaya Rossiya, available at: http://futurerussia.ru/upload/iblock/647/Smirnov%20EP_doklad_Dubna.pdf.

Economic Strategies in the Extractive Sector of the Economy: Approaches, Methods and Results

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.16-23

Economic-legal relations in organizing extraction and turnover of minerals was studied, typical economic strategies for organizations of the extractive sector of the economy were identified, effectiveness of implementing the portfolio strategies in the largest coal mining companies of Russia was shown, assessment of investments in the strategic innovation portfolio of an organization of the extractive sector of the Russian economy was proposed.

References:

1. Artov A.M., Laperdina T.G., Strizhova T.A., Khotuleva M.V., Chechetkin V.A., Perfil’eva E.V. Instrumenty strategicheskoi ekologicheskoi otsenki dlya planirovaniya razvitiya gornodobyvayushchei promyshlennosti v Rossii [Strategic Environmental Assessment Tools for Planning the Development of the Mining Industry in Russia]. Metodich. posobie. Moscow, Novokuznetsk, 2020, 132 p.

2. IM-EX.INFO. Informatsionno-analiticheskaya kompaniya [Sait], available at: http://imex.info/?_openstat=ZGlyZWN0LnlhbmRleC5ydTs2NTQ2OTY2MzsxMjQ3MDA2ODQxNzt5YW5kZXgucnU6cHJlbWl1bQ&yclid=6963604192633815039/

3. Petrenko I.E. Itogi raboty ugol’noi promyshlennosti Rossii za 2021 [The Results of the Work of the Coal Industry in Russia for 2021]. Ugol’, 2022, no 3, pp. 9–23.

4. OOO “El’gaugol” [Elgaugol LLC]. Integrum. Proverka kontragenta, available at: https://contragent.integrum.ru/ul/accounting/7550562.

5. Stolbova N.F., Isaeva E.R. Petrologiya uglei [Petrology of Coals]. Ucheb. Posobie. Tomskii politekhnicheskii universitet, Tomsk, Izd-vo Tomskogo politekhnicheskogo un-ta, 2013, 77 p.

6. Kholodov V.N. Tipy katageneticheskikh transformatsii v stratisfere i osadochnye poleznye iskopaemye [Types of Catagenetic Transformations in the Stratisphere and Sedimentary Minerals]. Uchenye zapiski Kazanskogo universiteta, vol. 153, book 4. Kazan’, 2011, pp. 16–53.

7. Perechen’ investitsionnykh proektov, napravlennykh na realizatsiyu Programmy razvitiya ugol’noi promyshlennosti Rossii na period do 2035 goda. Prilozhenie 8 [List of Investment Projects Aimed at Implementing the Russian Coal Industry Development Program for the Period up to 2035. Appendix No. 8.]. Normativnye i sudebnye akty RF, available at: https://sudact.ru/law/rasporiazhenie-pravitelstva-rf-ot-13062020-n-1582-r/programma-razvitiia-ugolnoipromyshlennosti-

rossii/prilozhenie-n-8/

8. Ermakova N.M. Privlechenie inostrannykh investitsii v neftegazodobyvayushchuyu promyshlennost’ Rossiiskoi Federatsii [Attracting Foreign Investment in the Oil and Gas Industry of the Russian Federation]. Problemy rynochnoi ekonomiki, 2019, no 1, pp. 37–43.

9. Sirotkin S.A., Kel’chevskaya N.R. Ekonomicheskaya otsenka investitsionnykh proektov: Ucheb. dlya studentov vuzov, obuchayushchikhsya po spetsial’nosti “Ekonomika i upravlenie na predpriyatiyakh (po otraslyam)” [Economic Evaluation of Investment Projects: a Textbook for University Students Studying in the Specialty “Economics and Management at Enterprises (by industry)”]. 3-e izd., pererab. i dop. Moscow, Yuniti-Dana, 2011, 311 p.

Problems of the Regional Economy Regulation in the System of Interbudgetary Relations

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.64-71

The aim of the study is to substantiate the directions of territorial economic development within the system of interbudgetary relations. It is emphasized that resolution of ver tical contradictions in the country’s interbudgetary relations requires scientific and applied research. On the whole, although insignificant, there is an increase in the centralization degree of the country’s budgetary resources at the federal budget level. Current mechanisms of interbudgetary relations in the country require new fundamental approaches to providing budget equalization. Strategic socio-economic development of the country should be put at the forefront in the process of reforming relations between the center and the territories. As a result, the necessit y of organizing interbudgetary relations of regional development in the context of “from the future to the present” dynamics is substantiated. In addition, digital plat forms should be used in the mechanisms of interbudgetary relations of regional development.

References:

1. Danilin K.P., Danilina V.G. Etapy razvitiya regional’noi ekonomiki kak samostoyatel’noi nauchnoi distsipliny [Stages in the Development of the Regional Economy as an Independent Scientific Discipline]. Regional’naya ekonomika i upravlenie: elektronnyi nauchnyi zhurnal, 2022, no 1(69), nomer stat’i: 6907, available at: https://eee-region.ru/article/6907/ DOI: 10.24412/1999-2645-2022-169-7.

2. Popod’ko G.I. Vyravnivanie disproportsii territorial’nogo razvitiya resursnogo regiona na osnove realizatsii infrastrukturnykh i investitsionnykh proektov [Aligning Disproportions in the Territorial Development of the Resource Region Based on Implementing the Infrastructure and Investment Projects]. Regional’naya ekonomika i upravlenie: elektronnyi nauchnyi zhurnal, 2022, no 1(69), nomer stat’i: 6912, available at: https://eee-region.ru/article/6912/ DOI:10.24412/1999-2645-2022-169-12.

3. Serebrennikova A.V. Prostranstvennaya ekonomika: perspektivy razvitiya [Spatial Economy: Development Prospects]. Regional’naya ekonomika i upravlenie: elektronnyi nauchnyi zhurnal, 2020, no 4(64), nomer stat’i: 6409, available at: ht tps://eee-region.ru/article/6409/

4. Sergeev L.I. Sostoyanie i problemy mezhbyudzhetnykh federativnykh otnoshenii strany [State and Problems of Interbudgetary Federal Relations of the Country]. Ekonomika i upravlenie: Problemy, resheniya, 2022, no 4(124), pp. 87–105.

5. Molchanov I.N., Molchanova N.P. Sovershenstvovanie mezhbyudzhetnykh otnoshenii i prostranstvennoe razvitie v 2021–2023 godakh [Improving Interbudgetary Relations and Spatial Development in 2021–2023]. Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo, 2021, no 14(1), pp. 100–111, DOI: 10.26794/1999-849X 2021-14-1-100-111.

6. Fedorov S.G. Boremsya s bednost’yu regionov: dotatsii ili nalogovoe stimulirovanie? [Fighting Regions’ Poverty: Subsidies or Tax Incentives?]. Rossiiskoe predprinimatel’stvo, 2012, no 15, pp. 17–24, available at: https://rucont.ru/efd/535976.

Innovative Activity of Russian Enterprises: Problems and Solutions

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.56-63

The present article analyzes the development level of the Russian economy and reveals problematic factors that hinder the progress of innovative production. The author identifies priority industries in terms of the Russian capital concentration and the reasons limiting the investment activities of domestic and foreign investors in industries of high technological competence. Reindustrialization of the economy, aimed at restoring the production potential of manufacturing industry through modern innovative transformations, is shows necessary.

References:

1. Zelenkina E.V., Pavlenko I.V., Lukoshevichus G.A. Metod obespecheniya innovatsionnogo razvitiya infrastruktury agroproizvodstvennogo rynka [Method for Ensuring Innovative Development of the Infrastructure of the Agro-industrial Market]. Nauchnoe obozrenie. Seriya 1: Ekonomika i pravo, 2018, no 3–4, pp. 84–94.

2. Mirovaya ekonomika. Statistika [World Economy. Statistics]. Ereport, URL: www.ereport.ru.

3. Informatsiya Federal’noi nalogovoi available at: www.ereport.ru.sluzhby ot 6 maya 2022 g. “Svedeniya o sredneotraslevykh pokazatelyakh nalogovoi nagruzki, rentabel’nosti prodannykh tovarov, produktsii, rabot, uslug i rentabel’nosti aktivov organizatsii po vidam ekonomicheskoi deyatel’nosti, kharakterizuyushchikh finansovo-khozyaistvennuyu deyatel’nost’ nalogoplatel’shchikov za 2020 god” [Information of the Federal Tax Service dated May 6, 2022 “Information on Industry-average Indicators of the Tax Burden, Profitability of Goods Sold, Products, Works, Services and Profitability of Organizations’ Assets by Type of Economic Activity Characterizing the Financial and Economic Activities of Taxpayers for 2020”]. Garant, available at: http://www.garant.ru.

4. Silin Ya.P., Animitsa E.G. Rossiiskaya model’ novoi industrializatsii: k postanovke problem [Russian Model of New Industrialization: to the Formulation of the Problem]. Izvestiya Ural’skogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta, 2017, no 5(73), pp. 44–53.

5. Shibaev S.V., Marushchak I.I. Mnogotselevoi podkhod k otsenke innovatsionno-investitsionnogo potentsiala khozyaistvuyushchikh sub”ektov [A Multi-purpose Approach to Assessing the Innovation and Investment Potential of Economic Entities]. Aktual’nye problemy sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii, 2018, no 1, pp. 63–68.

6. Goland Yu.M. Opyt industrializatsii pri NEPe i ego ispol’zovanie v sovremennykh usloviyakh [Experience of Industrialization under the New Economic Policy and its Use in Modern Conditions]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2013, no 10, pp. 109–135.

7. Maevskii V.I. Kornai, Shumpeter i ekonomicheskaya teoriya [Kornai, Schumpeter and Economic Theory]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2012, no 8, pp. 145–152.

Debates Around the Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.50-55

Examines the monetary policy features in the context of the investment agenda. Current policy of the Bank of Russia is analyzed. Business profitability accounting in the monetary policy of the financial regulator contribute to the growth of Russian companies’ investment activity.

References:

1. Lutsenko S.I. Dokhodnost’ biznesa i denezhno-kreditnaya politika [Profitability of Business and Monetary Policy]. Strategicheskie resheniya i riskmenedzhment, 2022, no 4, pp. 326–332.

2. Konstitutsiya Rossiiskoi Federatsii (prinyata vsenarodnym golosovaniem 12 dekabrya 1993 g. s izmeneniyami, odobrennymi v khode obshcherossiiskogo golosovaniya 1 iyulya 2020 g.) [The Constitution of the Russian Federation (adopted by popular vote on 12/12/1993 with amendments approved during the all-Russian vote on 07/01/2020)]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/constitution.

3. Opredelenie Konstitutsionnogo suda RF ot 14 dekabrya 2000 g. no 268-O [Determination of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation of December 14, 2000 No. 268-O]. Vestnik Konstitutsionnogo suda RF, 2001, no 2.

4. Opredelenie Konstitutsionnogo suda RF ot 15 yanvarya 2003 g. no 45-O [Determination of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation of January 15, 2003 No. 45-O]. Vestnik Konstitutsionnogo suda RF, 2003, no 3.

5. Federal’nyi zakon ot 10 iyulya 2002 g. no 86-FZ “O Tsentral’nom banke Rossiiskoi Federatsii (Banke Rossii)” [Federal Law of July 10, 2002 No. 86-FZ “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)”]. Sobranie zakonodatel’stva RF, 2002, no 28.

6. Osnovnye napravleniya edinoi gosudarstvennoi denezhno-kreditnoi politiki na 2023 god i period 2024 i 2025 godov (utv. Bankom Rossii) [The main directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2023 and the period of 2024 and 2025 (approved by the Bank of Russia)]. Konsul’tantPlyus, available at: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_430425.

7. Informatsiya Banka Rossii ot 24 maya 2019 g. “MVF nazval targetirovanie inflyatsii i gibkii obmennyi kurs odnimi iz klyuchevykh predposylok dlya povysheniya potentsiala rosta rossiiskoi ekonomiki” [Information from the Bank of Russia dated May 24, 2019 “The IMF called inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate one of the key prerequisites for increasing the growth potential of the Russian economy”]. Vestnik Banka Rossii, 2019, no 34.

8. Informatsionnoe soobshchenie Banka Rossii ot 21 noyabrya 2019 g. “Missiya MVF zayavila o vazhnosti sokhraneniya v Rossii prochnoi makroekonomicheskoi osnovy” [Information message of the Bank of Russia dated November 21, 2019 “The IMF mission declared the importance of maintaining a solid macroeconomic foundation in Russia”]. Vestnik Banka Rossii, 2019, no 74.

9. Prikaz Minsel’khoza Rossii ot 19 marta 2014 g. no 83 “Ob utverzhdenii otraslevoi tselevoi programmy “Razvitie khlebopekarnoi promyshlennosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii na 2014–2016 gody” [Order of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia dated March 19, 2014 no. 83 “On approval of the sectoral target program “Development of the baking industry of the Russian Federation for 2014-2016”]. Konsul’tantPlyus, available at: https://www.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi?req=doc&base=EXP&n=582610#8c8RoZTUXZLWGs3n.

“Unpredictable” Results of 2022 and Potential Threats to Russia’s Strategic Development in the Current Year

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.188.2023.44-49

The article addresses the change in the market index of “Economic Strategies” (MIES) for 2022. Contribution of the supply and demand indicators to the KIES is assessed. Dynamics of industrial production is analyzed.

References:

1. Poslanie Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii Federal’nomu sobraniyu Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 21 fevralya 2023 g. [Address of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation of February 21, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70565.

2. Otsenka chislennosti postoyannogo naseleniya na 1 yanvarya 2023 g. i v srednem za 2022 g. i komponenty ee izmeneniya (s uchetom itogov Vserossiiskoi perepisi naseleniya 2020 g.) [Estimated Resident Population as of January 1, 2023 and on Average for 2022 and Components of its Change (Against Results of the 2020 All-Russian Population Census)]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/12781.

3. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare — dekabre 2022 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January-December 2022: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-12-2022.pdf.

4. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskoe polozhenie Rossii v yanvare 2023 goda: Doklad [Socio-Economic Situation in Russia in January 2023: Report]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/osn-01-2023.pdf.

5. Frenkel’ A.A., Tikhomirov B.I., Surkov A.A. Itogi razvitiya mobilizatsionnoi ekonomiki Rossii v yanvare — sentyabre 2022 g.: bor’ba za gosudarstvennyi suverenitet [Results of the Development of the Mobilization Economy of Russia in January — September 2022: the Struggle for State Sovereignty].

Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6(186), pp. 30–35, DOI: 10.33917/es-6.186.2022.30-35.

6. Informatsiya ob uchastii Prezidenta RF v rabote ezhegodnogo s”ezda Rossiiskogo soyuza promyshlennikov i predprinimatelei (RSPP) 16 marta 2023 g. [Information on Participation of the President of the Russian Federation in the Annual Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) on March 16, 2023]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70688.

Poverty and the “Free Rider Problem” in Russian Society. Interrelationship and Solutions

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.36-38

Two shortcomings of our economy — poverty and the “free rider problem” — have the same origin — an exorbitant tax burden on wages. Mathematical modeling of the transition process from modern to transactional taxation, carried out by a group of Russian scientists, has shown that due to this transition, the country’s economy will begin to grow at a rate of 6–7% per year. And most importantly, the very concept of misery will disappear in the country and poverty will be reduced significantly.

References:

1. Eksperty predlozhili reshenie “problemy bezbiletnika” [Experts have Proposed a Solution to the “Free Rider Problem”]. RBK, 2022, 9 dekabrya, available at:

https://www.rbc.ru/economics/09/12/2022/63919fe19a79478d83afaf82.

2. Neravenstvo i bednost’ [Inequality and Poverty]. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoi statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/13723.

3. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskii byulleten’. 2021 [Socio-economic Bulletin. 2021]. Pod red. A.V. Shcherbakova; Tsentr sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo prognozirovaniya

im. D.I. Mendeleeva, Sretenskii klub im. S.P. Kurdyumova. Moscow, Grifon, 2022.

4. Shcherbakov A.V., Rumyantsev V.Yu., Oleskin A.V. Setevaya ekonomika [Network Economy]. Pod red. A.V. Shcherbakova; Tsentr sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo

prognozirovaniya im. D.I. Mendeleeva, Sretenskii klub im. S.P. Kurdyumova. Moscow, Grifon, 2020.

5. Shcherbakov A.V., Malkov S.Yu. Mobilizatsionnaya ekonomika Rossii [Mobilization Economy of Russia]. Moscow, Grifon, 2022.

6. Smit A. Issledovanie o prirode i prichinakh bogatstva narodov [Survey on the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations]. Kn. 1–3. Moscow, Azbuka, 2019.

Changing Technological Development: Approaches, Methods, Problems and Prospects

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.26-35

Technological changes form the basis of modern economic development, however, in order to study their influence and features, as well as to develop control actions, it is necessary to adequately measure the level of technological effectiveness of the economy. The purpose of the study is to identify the limitations of existing approaches and methods for measuring technological development, indicating what prospects there are in terms of their improvement or the development of new ways to assess the level of manufacturability and emerging technologies. The methodology is based on the economic theory of technological development, statistical approaches to measuring the level of technological effectiveness of the economy, performance assessment, and comparative analysis is applied. The result is reduced to a reasonable position that the existing methods for measuring the level of manufacturability essentially do not reveal the true content of this concept, do not reflect the manufacturability of the economy. Thus, it is required to revise and introduce new accounting, measurement and statistical procedures covering the issues of technological development. The measuring apparatus for technological modes, the “knowledge economy” also requires perfection, which is proposed in this study.

By modes, it is important to measure the distribution of policy instruments and the structure of technologies in each mode, for which accounting for specific types of technologies and the construction of technological maps can be used. The “knowledge economy”, which symbolizes a high level of technological development, needs to be measured in its purest form by the volume of sectors responsible for the creation, transfer, replication and application of advanced knowledge. Evaluation of productive jobs needs to be revised — from measuring wages in the workplace, as it is today, to measuring the level of its automation and intellectualization.

References:

1. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Teoriya dolgosrochnogo tekhniko-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [Theory of Long-term Technical and Economic Development]. Moscow, Vladar, 1993, 310 p.

2. Peres K. Tekhnologicheskie revolyutsii i finansovyi kapital. Dinamika puzyrei i periodov protsvetaniya [Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. Dynamics of Bubbles and Periods of Prosperity]. Moscow, Delo, 2011, 232 p.

3. Sukharev O.S. Ekonomika tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya [Economics of Technological Developmen]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika, 2008, 480 p.

4. Khelpman E. Zagadka ekonomicheskogo rosta [The Mystery of Economic Growth]. Moscow, Izdatel’stvo instituta Gaidara, 2011, 240 p.

5. Shumpeter I.A. Teoriya ekonomicheskogo razvitiya. Kapitalizm, sotsializm i demokratiya [Theory of Economic Development. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy]. Moscow, Eksmo, 2007, 864 p.

6. Antonelli C., Gehringer А. Technological change, rent and income inequalities: A Schumpeterian approach. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2017, vol. 115, pp. 85–98.

Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

[1–15] see No. 6 (186)/2022, p. 25.

16. Ageev A.I., Glaz’ev S.Yu., Mityaev D.A., Zolotareva O.A., Pereslegin S.B. Postroenie modeli prognoza kursa valyut na dolgosrochnom i kratkosrochnom gorizontakh [Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6 (186), pp. 16–25, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25.

17. Dubrova T.A. Analiz vremennykh dannykh [Time Data Analysis]. Analiz dannykh. Moscow, Yurait, 2019, pp. 397–459.

18. Boks Dzh, Dzhenkins G. Analiz vremennyh ryadov [Time Series Analysis]. Prognozirovanie i upravlenie. Moscow, Mir, 1974, 406 p.

19. Alzheev A.V., Kochkarov R.A. Sravnitel’nyi analiz prognoznykh modelei ARIMA i LSTM na primere aktsii rossiiskikh kompanii [Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and LSTM Forecasting Models on the Example of Russian Companies’ Stocks]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2020, no 24(1), pp. 14–23,
DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-14-23.

20. Mhitaryan S.V., Danchenok L.A. Prognozirovanie prodazh s pomoshch’yu adaptivnyh statisticheskih metodov [Sales Forecasting with the Help of Adaptive Statistical Methods]. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya, 2014, no 9-4, pp. 818–822.

21. Pilyugina A.V., Bojko A.A. Ispol’zovanie modelej ARIMA dlya prognozirovaniya valyutnogo kursa [Using ARIMA Models for Exchange Rate Forecasting]. Prikaspijskij zhurnal: upravlenie i vysokie tekhnologii, 2015, no 4, pp. 249-267.

22. Ruppert D., Matteson D.S. Statistics and Data Analysis for Financial Engineering. Springer, 2015, available at: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-1-4939-2614-5.

23. Garcia F., Guijarro F., Moya I., Oliver J. Estimating returns and conditional volatility: A comparison between the ARMA-GARCH-M models and the backpropagation neural network. International Journal of Complex Systems in Science, 2012, no 1(2), pp. 21–26.

24. Maniatis P. Forecasting the Exchange Rate Between Euro And USD: Probabilistic Approach Versus ARIMA And Exponential Smoothing Techniques. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 2012, no 28(2), pp. 171–192, available at: https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v28i2.6840.

Results of the Development of the Mobilization Economy of Russia in January — September 2022: the Struggle for State Sovereignty

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.30-35

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for nine months of 2020 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

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