DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.113.2023.76-88

Forecasts are given for 2023–2028 global demand for oil and energy, as well as real GDP growth by region of the world. The linear regression models developed by the authors and graphs of the relationship between the annual growth rate of global GDP and the annual growth rate of global oil and energy demand are presented.

According to the authors, the fight against inflation by the US Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of Europe through raising interest rates leads to a decrease in investment and a decrease in the growth rate of GDP in the US and Europe.

References: 

1. «Prospects for the development of the world economy».  World Bank report dated June 05,2023. URL:  https://www.vsemirnyjbank.org/ru/publication/global- economic-prospects

2. The Central Bank kept the key rate at 7,5%

for the fifth time in a row. KOMMERSANT dated04/28/2023. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5955429

3. The economy is reaching a plateau. GDP monitoring. KOMMERSANT dated 08/04/2023.

URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6138316

4. EDB macro forecast 2023–2025: economic growth forecast has been improved for all countries in the region. URL: https://eabr.org/press/releases/makroprognoz-eabr-2023–2025-prognozekonomicheskogo-rosta- uluchshen-dlya-vsekhstran-regiona/

5. IEA «Oil 2023 Analysis and forecast to 2028». June 2023. URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2023

6. IEA «World Energy Outlook 2022». URL:

https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/830fe099–5530–48f2-a7c1–11f35d510983/WorldEnergyOutlook2022.pdf

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.118-131

Based on diplomatic documents, a detailed picture of driving oil product suppliers – the Soviet companies, Derop and Derunaft – out from the German market during 1933 is restored. Soviet intelligence materials prove that one of the inspirers of this process can be considered the major Anglo-Dutch oil tycoon Henry Deterding, who in the course of the alleged “crusade” against the USSR, among other things hoped to seize the Caucasian oil fields.

References:

1. Morozov S.V. K voprosu o roli neftyanogo faktora v evropeiskikh mezhdunarodnykh otnosheniyakh v techenie 1933–1935 gg.: VII chteniya, posvyashchennye pamyati R.L. Yavorskogo: Materialy Vserossiiskoi nauchnoi konferentsii s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem[On the question of the role of the oil factor in European international relations during 1933–1935: VII readings dedicated to the memory of R.L. Yavorsky. Materials of the All-Russian Scientific Conference with International Participation]. Novokuznetsk, RIO KuzGPA, 2011, 288 p.

2. Morozov S.V. Khronika vytesneniya sovetskoi nefti s germanskogo rynka v techenie 1933 g.: IX chteniya, posvyashchennye pamyati R.L. Yavorskogo: Materialy Vserossiiskoi (s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem) nauchnoi konferentsii[Chronicle of the displacement of Soviet oil from the German market during 1933: IX readings dedicated to the memory of R.L. Yavorsky. Materials of the All-Russian Scientific Conference with International Participation]. Novokuznetsk, RIO KuzGPA, 2013, 320 p.

3. Gekht E.V. Neft’ v politike Germanii (1933–1943) [Oil in German Politics (1933–1943)]. Avtoref. dis. … kand. ist. nauk. Ekaterinburg, 2007. 22 s.

4. Medlicott W.N. The Economic Blockade. Vol. 1. L., Longmans, Green and Co., 1952, 756 p.

5. Birkenfeld W. Der synthetische Treibstoff 1933–1945: Ein Beitrag zur nationalsozialistischen Wirtschafts- und Rüstungspolitik. Göttingen, Berlin, Frankfurt, Musterschmidt-Verlag, 1964, 278 p.

6. Teichert E. Autarkie und Grossraumwirtschaft in Deutschland 1930–1939: Aussenwirtschaftpolitische Konzeptionen zwischen Wirtschaftskriese und Zwseitem Weltkrieg. München, Oldenburg, 1984, 390 p.

7. Mejcher H. Die Politik und das Öl im Nahen Osten. Bd. 2: Die Teilung der Welt 1938–1950. Stuttgart, Klett-Gotta, 1990, 490 p.

8. Karlsch R., Stockes G.R. Faktor Öl. Die Mineralölwirtschaft in Deutschland 1859–1974. München, C.H. Beck Verlag, 2003, 460 p.

9. Kockel T. Deutsche Ölpolitik 1928–1938. Berlin, Akademie Verlag GmbH, 2005, 393 p.

10. Klein B.H. Germany’s Economic Preparations for War. Cambridge Massachusets, Harvard University press, 1959, 272 p.

11. Friedwald E.M. Oil and the War. L., Heineman, 1941, 88 p.

12. Pеarton M. Oil and the Romanian State. Oxford, Clarendon press, 1971, 361 p.

13. Sesyuli R. IG Farbenindustri[IG Farbenindustri]. Moscow, Gos. izd-vo in-i lit-ry, 1948. 244 s.

14. Bruks M. Neft’ i vneshnyaya politika[Oil and foreign policy]. Moscow, Izd-vo in-i lit-ry, 1949, 173 p.

The article analyzes the development of the economy and the consumption of energy resources for the coming years in Russia and abroad. The role of energy resources in the growth of prices in 2022 in the EU countries is shown. An increase in the export of energy resources from Russia to Asia (China, India) was noted, with a significant decrease in oil and gas supplies to Europe. The impact of the Russian oil price ceiling on the budget in 2023 is assessed. The results of the Davos Forum in January 2023 are analyzed.

References:

1. Alifirova E. A. Novak: oil production in Russia in 2022 will grow by 2%, gas – will fall by 18-20%. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/763968-a-novak-dobycha-nefti-v-rossii-v-2022-g-vyrastet-na-2-gaza-upadet-na-18-20/

2. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of December 27, 2022 No. 961 «On the application of special economic measures in the fuel and energy sector in connection with the establishment by some foreign states of the maximum price for Russian oil and oil products». – Access from the information and legal system «Garant».

3. Alifirova E. The Russian budget in January 2023 received less than 52.1 billion rubles. oil and gas revenues. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/768980-rossiyskiy-byudzhet-v-yanvare-2023-g-nedopoluchil-52-1-mlrd-rub-neftegazovykh-dokhodov/

4. Viktorov V. LNG is exported on a record // Radio «Kommersant FM» dated December 7, 2022. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5707622

5. Edovina T. Gas occupies the provided volume. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5594179

6. Urvachev L. The dollar fell below 68 rubles, the euro – below 73 rubles. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5760848

7. Babkin D. The West did not have enough ceiling. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5760224

8. The IMF has revised forecasts for GDP dynamics in the world and in Russia // Kommersant dated 10/11/2022. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5607636

9. Borovikova K. Davos ended with a discussion of the shaky prospects for the global economy // Kommersant, 2023. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5782786

10. Kuzovkin A.I. Climate, the role of fuel and renewable energy sources. Microeconomics. 2022;3:28-37. (In Russ.).

DOI: 10.33917/es- 1.175.2021.14-21

The growth in primary energy consumption in 2019 by 1.3% was provided by renewable energy sources and natural gas, which together provided 75% of the increase. China in the period 2010–2020 held a leading position in the growth of demand for energy resources, but according to forecasts, India will join it in the current decade

In this article long-term trends of the energy market are viewed not from the point of view of supply and demand balance, as it is usually done, but exclusively analyzing quotations. Particular attention is paid to coal prices, which have been traced since 1834. The main conclusion is that there isn’t any shortage of raw materials on the planet, and the tendency of refusing mineral fuel in favor of renewable sources, if it is manifested in quotations — it will happen only in several decades. Much more important for price dynamics are big cycles of the business situation, on the basis of which a long-term forecast is made.

One of the major goals of political and economic sanctions, imposed on Russia in post-Crimean period, is an attempt of Western geostrategic players to intercept the trade and financial flows between Russia and the countries importing energy and raw resources of Russian or transit origin. These flows are the basis of economic, political and social well-being of Russia. Under extremely severe change of external economic conditions of the Russian energy companies activities an urgent development of a new strategy for their integration into the world economy is required. Such a strategy should be based on the organizational model of the space-stream arrangements and interaction of Russian energy companies, which could be implemented in the most effective way based on the concept of forming energy hubs abroad as a kind of energy infrastructure nodes combining different business profiles of Russian economic agents activities.

Russian strategy in assisting the legitimate leadership of Syria in their fight against terrorist groups has shown the beginning of a qualitatively new stage: not only the USA, but also Russia can now restore law and order in the most important regions of the world. The next Russia’s step in gaining back its role and recognized status of superpower shall be organization of successful reconstruction of Syria’s economy, destroyed by the terrorist war, in conditions of critical limitations of the Syrian national resources for these purposes. This requires elaboration and implementation of Russia’s equivalent of the Marshall Plan. It is proposed to concentrate Russian economic aid and investments in those sectors of the Syrian infrastructure development, that are the most promising for the Russian and Syrian interests, with the key positioning of objects restored or created with Russian participation. The basic imperative here is adjusting in Syria a new model of the Russian opportunities realization in key sectors (nodes) of the global strategic projects implementation as the new format of the Middle East development.

The paper examines in detail the system designs of the global oil and oil products market based on accomplishing a series of preconditions for a global competition compliance (for example, by such indicator as the price-quality of oil and oil products), to which the following compliances can be attributed: the existence of the great number of independent oil producer, as well as producers, suppliers and consumers of petroleum products, the possibility of a free trade of the productive forces (logistics) and oil products produced with the help of such forces. The productive forces include the broad paradigm of activities related not only to mining and processing of oil resources, but also to their transportation through pipelines and marine large vessels. It is also necessary to include here the independence of business entities; uniformity, comparability of oil and oil products; availability of access to objective information about the market.

Prices slump in the world oil markets in the second half of 2014 significantly damaged Russian economy. It became clear that something should be done. The article formulates the main directions and organizational model of forming the system of the EAEU oil and oil products markets. In fact, given the importance of budget revenues and corporate income from the crude oil and oil products sales (including relationship with the national currency exchange rate), it is a question of ensuring national security of our friendly countries through the joint regulation of the union oil markets by the states — the EAEU members. The EAEU system of oil and oil products markets (in the short term, the common EAEU market of oil and oil products) — is not only a mechanism of a certain commodities turnover management, but also a tool supporting the national currency exchange rate, the volume of gold and currency reserves, social programs realization and, therefore, a guarantee of their sustainability development.

Operational result of the strategy being executed by political-economic US clans, which brought to power the current US President Barack Obama and keep under control the majority of European countries political leaders, influence the world economy future and the Russian economy in 2015–2016, is manipulative handling of world oil prices. This strategy is designed to create new economic and political balance of powers in the global arena through trying to expropriate the accumulated financial-economic resources of a number of oil-exporting countries and to focus the short- and medium-term trend of stimulating antirecessionary economic development of the West developed countries, based on increasing natural and industrial resources exploitation, especially Russia, on nonequivalent economic compensation for supplied energy resources. At the same time there is an attempt to unhinge” those political regimes, including Russia, which the West doesn’t like. Russia should draw up adequate conclusions from the current situation, they should form the basis for the national economic sovereignty policy in the ХХI century.