The Dollar Collapse: Projecting Russia’s Actions in the Face of Global Economic Collapse

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.56-69

The world has been scared by the collapse of the dollar many times. So far, fears of a global economic collapse, associated with the fate of the dollar, have been greatly exaggerated. However, there are no significant guarantees that this will not happen under certain conditions. Variants of the Atlantic-planned collapse of the dollar with its replacement by a synthetic financial instrument o r digital currency, somehow similar to bitcoin, are possible. COVID-19 has further revealed this problem. Russia needs to abandon its illusions and to be ready to ensure the economic stability of political regime in a special period as manifestation of the world monetary and economic war of all against all at a certain stage of the catastrophe, while waiting for the main actors to agree on joint actions. At the same time, among our geopolitical competing partners, there are a lot of those who want by all means to solve their economic and other problems at the expense of Russia. Therefore,  macroeconomic measures that Russia will have to take in case of a global dollar collapse are very likely to be more severe than the scenario that the authors formulated in this article.

Источники:

1. Makarov V.L., Bakhtizin A.R., Il’in N.I., Sushko E.D. Natsional’naya bezopasnost’ Rossii [National Security of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 5, pp. 6–23, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.6-23.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Coronavirus superstrategy: mirovaya proektsiya finansovoi modeli catastrophe just-in-time dlya vykhoda iz krizisa na novuyu geoekonomicheskuyu normal’nost’ [Coronavirus Superstrategy: Global Projection of the “Just-in-time Catastrophe’s” Financial Model for Overcoming the Crisis and Entering into a New Geo-Economic Normality]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, no 4, pp. 6–19, available at: DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.6-19.

3. Na poroge monetarnoi kul’minatsii [On the Brink of a Monetary Climax]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, August, 25, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/699002.html.

4. Fiskal’nyi ad [Fiscal Hell]. Livejournal, Spydell, 2021, April, 21, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/698446.html.

5. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. New Deal – 2008 — “novaya sdacha”. Bludnye ucheniki Franklina Ruzvel’ta [“New Deal” – 2008. Lost Followers of Franklin Roosevelt]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2009, no 2, pp. 30–37

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Formirovanie novoi modeli valyutno-finansovoi politiki pri upravlenii natsional’nymi zolotovalyutnymi rezervami Rossii [Forming a New Model of Monetary Policy while Managing the National Foreign Exchange Reserves of Russia]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2016,

no 3, no 8–15.

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Institutsional’nye mekhanizmy snizheniya mul’tifaktornykh riskov dlya valyutno-finansovoi sistemy Rossii i EAES v usloviyakh nelineinoi ekonomicheskoi dinamiki [Institutional Mechanisms for Reducing Multifactor Risks for Monetary-financial System of Russia and the EAEU in the Context of Nonlinear Economic Dynamics]. Monografiya. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategii, 2017.

Expertise of Solutions in the Public Administration System

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.80-91

The purpose of the study is to analyze the expert activity in the Russian Federation, with the receipt of basic recommendations for the deployment of a system of state expertise. The research methodology is a comparative, retrospective analysis, a method of taxonomy of management problems and the solution of poorly structured problems. The application of the indicated methodology allowed us to come to the main result, which boils down to the fact that in Russia expert activity at the state level has significant limitations for many reasons, which reduces the effectiveness of analytical management. This constitutes a condition for the failure of many programs and doctrines, namely strategic documents for development until 2020, and also blocks the formation of a new model of economic growth at the level of the state policy pursued for a decade. In addition, ill-considered reforms in education, science, and the administrative sphere also confirm the existence of significant gaps in the field of analytical public administration. Overcoming the listed problems is seen in the deployment of a system of state expertise on the basis of the relevant Federal Law with the leading role of the Academy of Sciences, since expertise involves exploratory, scientific activities, multivariate analysis and predictive assessments. In the course of the analysis, including the drafts of the Regulation on the support of expert activities in the executive authorities of Russia, developed at the Academy of Sciences, it is nevertheless proposed to abandon the public status of expert councils, as well as to change approaches in the field of recommendations and consideration of the examinations   themselves. Also proposed are corrections of some rules for voting on expertise and the level of responsibility of the experts themselves for their conclusions, including the responsibility of the authorities regarding the consideration of expert opinions. Thus, in the course of the study, he proposes to launch a large-scale work on the formation of a system of state expertise that functions at all levels of management with budgetary resources allocated for this.

Источники:

1. Chichkanov V.P., Sukharev O.S. Razvit ie Rossiiskoi akademii nauk: reshenie organizatsionnykh zadach [Development of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Solution of Organizational Tasks]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 3, pp. 120–129. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.120-129.

2. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 4 fevralya 2021 g. N 68 “Ob otsenke effektivnosti deyatel’nosti vysshikh dolzhnostnykh lits (rukovoditelei vysshikh ispolnitel’nykh organov gosudarstvennoi vlasti) sub”ektov Rossiiskoi Federatsii i deyatel’nosti organov ispolnitel’noi vlasti sub”ektov Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [On the Assessment of the Effectiveness of the Activities of Senior Officials (Heads of the Highest Executive Bodies of State Power) of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation and the Activities of the Executive Bodies of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation: Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of February 4, 2021 No. 68]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF. URL: http://kremlin.ru/acts/ news/64970.

Russia in Supercritical Situation: Managing Restoration of Life-Support Functions to Overcome the Consequences of a Natural Macro Catastrophe

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.179.2021.28-35

Supercritical fluid is a state of matter when its temperature and pressure are above the critical point. Supercritical situation is a state of the economy in its cumulative manifestations and mutual influence, whereby the state of key life-support profiles is below the critical point of controllability. Various forecasts are increasingly actualizing the probability of a natural (and man-made) macro-catastrophe (a large meteorite fall, an earthquake of 10–12 points and others, as well as a pandemic similar to COVID–19, but with more severe consequences). As the coronavirus pandemic has shown, modern civilization is becoming ever more vulnerable to such disasters. To overcome the destabilizing trends of a natural (and man-made) macro-catastrophe, it is necessary to adopt proactively a set of measures in Russia that will drastically increase the efficiency of public administration in relation to the list of regulated resource,  economic, technical, social and other parameters incorporating mechanisms and procedures of public administration into market mechanisms and the budgeting structure with regard to external and internal factors of the supersystem’s vital activities

The Project of Crating a New World Logistics. Part I. History and Economics of the Project

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.178.2021.36-47

The article presents one of the most promising and ambitious in socio-economic, political, humanitarian aspects of the Russian scientists’ project: “United Eurasia: Trans-Eurasian Belt of RAZVITIE — Integrated Eurasian Transport System (United Eurasia: TEBR-IETS)”.

The main purpose of the project is to ensure the connectivity of the territories of the Russian Federation and their active development, first of all, the deep integrated development of Siberia, the Far East and the Arctic. The role of the project in the partnership of the progressive world community is great; the radically modernized Trans-Siberian Railway — the backbone of the project — is designed to connect the Far East, including Japan, with Western Europe and the USA in the future. This fact will make it possible to carry out on the territory of the Russian Federation and the countries included in the project, the systemic coordination of all types of transport, including river and nautical, to create a single world logistics complex of advanced technical and managerial development.

The creation of the IETS will consolidate Russian geopolitical position as a transport bridge between the world economic and civilizational regions. It will create conditions for mutually beneficial cooperation with Austria, Germany, France, Czech Republic, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, India; will open up new opportunities for cooperation with North Korea, Canada and USA in the future. It will arouse interest from the PRC in the integration of a similar Chinese project, the “Silk Road” with

the Russian Megaproject. The implementation of the Megaproject will allow Russia to offer the world a new effective version of a non-confrontational way of solving international problems, become a geo-economic and geopolitical integrator on the Euro-Asian continent, lay the foundations for the solidarity development of all civilizational centers around Russia as a civilization state, make it senseless and impossible to impose sanctions on Russia, and raise to a qualitatively new level of authority and the role of the Russian Federation in the modern world

To the 100th Anniversary of the USSR State Planning Committee

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.110-119

A step-by-step and objective review of the history of the State Planning Committee of the USSR (Gosplan), presented by the authors, helps to form a holistic idea of how the power of the USSR arose and what objective necessity or what subjective factors led to a radical change in the political and socio-economic structure of the country.

To the 100th Anniversary of the USSR State Planning Committee

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.176.2021.62-69

A step-by-step and objective review of the history of the State Planning Committee of the USSR (Gosplan), presented by the authors, helps to form a holistic idea of how the power of the USSR arose and what objective necessity or what subjective factors led to a radical change in the political and socio-economic structure of the country

Solving the problem of duplication of state obligations to provide free medical care based on the use of the state information system

The article analyzes the system of state guarantees of providing free medical care to citizens operating in the Russian Federation and proposes the direction of improving the accounting of state guarantees on the basis of the principle of «one person – one guarantee». To do this, it is proposed to create an information system of accounting that will allow in the short term to more accurately calculate per capita standards of financing of free medical care, and in the medium term opens up opportunities based on the analysis of accumulated data using elements of artificial intelligence to create predictive models of demand for free medical care in relation to the source of financing, and to work out different scenarios on them.

Strategic analysis of the use land and property resources of the city of Moscow

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.90.2020.94-106

The scientific article is devoted to the strategic analysis of the features of the use of land and property resources of the city of Moscow. The focus is on the strategic planning documents currently in force and being developed today in the capital of Russia. Taking into account the analysis of strategic goals and priorities of the land and property policy of the city of Moscow, the medium-term dynamics of the indicators of the efficiency of land use and non-residential premises is revealed. On this basis, conclusions are drawn about the need for a systematic approach to improving the socio-economic efficiency of the use of land and property resources of the city of Moscow.

Conceptual Proposals for Practical Implementation of the Big Eurasian Partnership Idea

#1. Minds Confusion
Conceptual Proposals for Practical Implementation of the Big Eurasian Partnership Idea

Idea of the Big Eurasian Partnership was formulated in December 2015 by the President of Russia V.V. Putin, who launched an initiative to begin consultations on forming an economic partnership between the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. According to the author of the article, partnership should be formed on the basis of a flexible system of legal norms, joint projects and institutions that take into account diversity of the participants’ interests and purely volunteer nature of cooperation. Options for integrating into the partnership can be of different speeds and different levels, providing each participant the freedom to choose a package of commitments.

Academician A.N. Efimov, Debates of the 1920s and Some Problems of the Present. To the 110th Anniversary of Anatoly Nikolayevich Efimov

#5. Longstanding Generation
Academician A.N. Efimov, Debates of the 1920s and Some Problems of the Present. To the 110th Anniversary of Anatoly Nikolayevich Efimov

The name of Anatoly Nikolayevich Efimov, the first director of Scientific Research Economic Institute under the State Planning Committee of the USSR (SREI), elected in 1955, is associated with fundamentally new stage in the history of planning after the end of the Stalin era in 1953. Pioneer and fundamental developments of the interbranch balance, awarded with the USSR State Prize in 1968, methodology for forecasting the country’s economy development, widely used today in the market conditions, have made up the content and novelty of this stage, as well as the main vector of SREI’s scientific research. The choice of these directions is not a flash of reason or sudden enlightenment. Their roots go not only into the environment, but also to the turbulent and dramatic events of the 1920s, which became a time of choosing the way of the country’s development, overcoming economic and cultural backwardness in conditions of isolation and a hostile external environment. Transition from the policy of “military communism” to the NEP, the broadest democratization of society served as a powerful impetus for development of planned economic thought.