DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.123.2025.118-123

According to the IMF, the US GDP growth rate in 2025 will decrease to 1,6% with the forecast for US GDP growth in 2024 being 2,1%. Our article [1] provides an analysis of «Black Monday» on August 5, 2024, which marked the beginning of the global financial crisis. In this article, we will outline the further course of this crisis. In Russia, GDP growth for the first half of 2024 was 4,6%, for 2024 – 4,1%. The forecast for real GDP for the world was 3,2% in 2024 and, according to the IMF, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation gave a conservative scenario, according to which the growth of Russian GDP in 2025 will be 1,7%, inflation 3,7% (Kommersant, 09.14.2024, p. 19).

References:

[1] See in No. 2 (121)/2025. p. 131.

2. BP may change its decision to reduce oil and gas production. The company plans to change its strategy to reduce oil and gas production by 40%. Neftegaz.RU. October 2024. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/companies/858590-bp-mozhet-izmenit-svoe-reshenie-ob-umenshenii-proizvodstva-nefti-i-gaza/

3. Oil continues to rise in price amid concerns about a large-scale conflict in the Middle East. Neftegaz.RU. October 2024. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/858410-neft-prodolzhaet-dorozhat-na-fone-opaseniy-po-povodu-masshtabnogo-konflikta-na-blizhnem-vostoke/

4. Sechin I.V. Energy transition and phantom barrels: Abandon hope, all ye who enter here. The bright future of global energy will take everyone. Report at the XXVII St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. June 8, 2024. URL: https://www.rosneft.ru/upload/site1/attach/spief_2024/SPIEF2024_speech_rus.pdf

5. Abrekov M.M. Model of economic growth of real GDP in the USA. Bulletin of the Altai Academy of Economics and Law. 2020;5-1: 5-11.

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.200.2025.84-91

Predictive construction of strategic scenarios for countering attempts at Nazi revenge demonstrates transition of the situation in the world from the section of political fiction to the section of probable threats. Strategic game in the form of command and staff (expert) exercises on the basis of INES made it possible to explore our country’s actions and the prospects for the international situation development. Various options for resuscitating Nazi ideas, primarily in the form of Bandera’s Ukrainian nationalism, are increasingly threatening the world stability. In these conditions, Russia, as a victorious power in the World War II, in coalition with other countries, can and should recognize its own role, assigned to it by history, as a powerful political “locomotive” and guarantor of the anti-fascist recovery of Europe and Asia.

References: 

1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya bol’shaya voyna: khroniki khorosho zabytogo budushchego [New Large-scale War: Chronicles of Well Forgotten Future]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2014, vol. 16, no 6–7(122–123), pp. 16–33.

2. Ageev A.I. 100 let voyny za pravo byt’ Rossiey [100 years of War for the Right to be Russia]. Mezhdunarodnaya zhizn’, 2015, no 3, pp. 69–86.

3. Ageev A.I. Kholodnaya voyna — 2.0: realii i perspektivy [Cold War – 2.0: Realities and Prospects]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, vol. 17, no 2(128), pp. 74–79.

4. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Rossiya v novoy ekonomicheskoy real’nosti [Russia in New Economic Reality]. Monografiya. Moscow, Institut ekonomicheskikh strategiy, Assotsiatsiya “Analitika”, 2016, 460 p.

5. Ageev A.I. Dinamika i struktura global’nykh riskov [Dynamics and Structure of Global Risks]. Strategiya grazhdanskoy zashchity: problemy i issledovaniya, 2013, vol. 3, no 2(5), pp. 7, 8.

6. Ageev A.I., Kretov V.S., Kotov M.N., Kotov N.M., Kokhtyulina I.N., Kuroedov B.V., Sandarov O.V. Global’naya bezopasnost’: innovatsionnye metody analiza konfliktov [Global Security: Innovative Methods of Conflict Analysis]. Moscow, 2011.

7. Ageev A.I. Budushchee Rossii: v tiskakh istorii, khaosa i stsenariev [The Future of Russia: in the Grip of History, Chaos and Scenarios]. Mir Rossii. Sotsiologiya. Etnologiya, 2010, vol. 19, no 1, pp. 126–162.

8. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Coronavirus superstrategy: mirovaya proektsiya finansovoy modeli catastrophe just-in-time dlya vykhoda iz krizisa na novuyu geoekonomicheskuyu normal’ nost’ [Coronavirus Superstrategy: Global Projection of the “Just-in-time Catastrophe’s” Financial Model for Overcoming the Crisis and Entering into a New Geo-Economic Normality]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, vol. 22, no 4(170), pp. 6–19, DOI: 10.33917/es-4.170.2020.6-19

9. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Novaya strategicheskaya rol’ Rossii kak garanta — operatora sistemy podderzhaniya mirovykh i regional’nykh ekonomicheskikh balansov [The New Strategic Role of Russia as a Guarantor — Operator of the System for Global and Regional Eeconomic Balances Maintenance]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, vol. 17, no 1(127), pp. 18–35.

According to the IMF, the US GDP growth rate in 2025 will decrease to 1,6% with the forecast for US GDP growth in 2024 being 2,1%. Our article [1] provides an analysis of «Black Monday» on August 5, 2024, which marked the beginning of the global financial crisis. In this article, we will outline the further course of this crisis. In Russia, GDP growth for the first half of 2024 was 4,6%, for 2024 – 4,1%. The forecast for real GDP for the world was 3,2% in 2024 and, according to the IMF, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation gave a conservative scenario, according to which the growth of Russian GDP in 2025 will be 1,7%, inflation 3,7% (Kommersant, 09.14.2024, p. 19).

References:

1. Kuzovkin A.I., Stakun A.V. Forecast of the dynamics of global economic development for 2024–2025. Microeconomics. 2024;4:27–38.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.119.2024.40-49

The avalanche-like flow of innovations, instability in the global political arena, sanctions policy, shortage of qualified personnel complicates the development of strategic sectoral solutions for staffing in the Russian labor market. The personnel support system, as a complex system, is formed by a set of interconnected and interacting, but structurally relatively autonomous subsystems. At the corporate level, the system of continuous training and human resource development is aimed at meeting the strategic need of the company for qualified personnel in its priority areas. The formation of training programs for the personnel reserve using foresight technologies allows you to focus the company’s resources and achieve the so-called «dynamic equilibrium» according to A. Bogdanov [1]. The transition from strategic forecasting of required qualifications in the industry to planning of demanded competencies based on foresight technologies makes it possible to increase the competitiveness of the company.

References:

1. Bogdanov A.A. Tectology. General organizational science: in 2 books. M.: Economica, 1989. 304 p.

2. Budzinskaya O.V. Personnel supply system as a mechanism for expanded reproduction of human resources: dis. Doctor of Economics: 08.00.05. M., 2022. 321 p.

3. Connor J., McDermott I. The art of systems thinking: essential knowledge about systems and a creative approach to problem solving. M.: Alpina Publisher, 2018. 256 p.

4. Martynov V.G., Budzinskaya O.V., Sheinbaum V.S. Design of a system of expanded reproduction of personnel for the fuel and energy complex in the context of the next reform of engineering education. Standard of living of the population of the regions of Russia. 2024. Vol. 20. No. 2. P. 243–257.

5. Golden hands: Russia has a total personnel shortage. Forbes. URL: https://www.forbes.ru/biznes/497478-zolotye-ruki-v-rossii-total-nyj-deficit-kadrov

6. Personnel reserve program. URL: https://rosnefteflot.rosneft.ru/Development/personnel/reserve/

7. Budzinskaya O.V. Forecasting the need for qualified personnel using the example of the oil and gas industry. Social and labor research. 2020; 40(3):81–89.

8. Budzinskaya O.V. Foresight of competence or forecasting the structure of personnel in the context of the global system of division of labor. Education. Science. Scientific personnel. 2020. No. 4. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/forsayt-kompetentsii-ili-prognozirovanie-struktury-kadrov-v-usloviyah-mirovoi-sistemy-razdeleniya-truda

9. Mironova D.Yu., Baranov I.V., Pomazkova E.E., Rumyantseva O.N. Project management: application of foresight and industrial symbiosis in project management for sustainable development: Study guide ed. St. Petersburg: ITMO University, 2022. 95 p.

10. Rosneft: contribution to the implementation of the UN sustainable development goals. URL: https://www.rosneft.ru/Investors/Rosneft_vklad_v_realizaciju_ celej_OON/

11. Regulation of JSC RN-Moscow «Internal Labor Regulations». URL: https://edu.rosneft-azs.ru/upload/site1/edu-files/

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.196.2024.62-73

The paper reveals the content of the method of structural analysis as a basic approach in economic research, used in the study of economic changes. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate the areas of application of structural analysis and its part — macrostructural analysis, with outputs for the study of technological development and the formation of a strategy for economic policy and development. The methodology consists of empirical structural analysis, comparative method and taxonomic approach. The overall result can be considered the identified areas of application of structural analysis in the macroeconomic part of its application, the possibilities and mistakes of applying macrostructural analysis to the study of economic growth and structural transformation of the economy. Let us note that many issues of the application of macrostructural analysis in economic science have been poorly studied. Often in studies it is replaced by the general method of structural analysis, which is reduced exclusively to the assessment of “input-output”, the structure of aggregate demand and production distributed across economic sectors. In fact, structural analysis is much broader, extends to micro and mesoeconomic objects of the economy, and is suitable not only for correcting current macroeconomic policies, but also for developing strategic plans for economic development and carrying out economic changes (reforms). An interpretation of changes within the framework of the “old — new” technologies structure is given, as well as proposals for taking into account technological development as an important condition for carrying out the structural and technological modernization of Russia.

References:

1. Shumpeter Y.A. Teoriya ekonomicheskogo razvitiya. Kapitalizm, sotsializm i demokratiya [Theory of Economic Development. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy]. Moscow, Eksmo, 2007, 864 s.

2. Nort D. Ponimanie protsessa ekonomicheskikh izmeneniy [Understanding the Process of Economic Change]. Moscow, Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki, 2010, 256 p.

3. Barr R. Politicheskaya ekonomiya [Political Economy]. V 2 t. Moscow, Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 1996.

4. Sukharev O.S. Strukturnyy analiz ekonomiki [Structural Analysis of the Economy]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika, 2012, 216 p.

5. Dedov L.A., Botkin O.I. Indeksnyy makrostrukturnyy analiz ekonomicheskoy dinamiki. Osnovnye ponyatiya i priemy makrostrukturnogo analiza [Index Macrostructural Analysis of Economic Dynamics. Basic Concepts and Techniques of Macrostructural Analysis]. Ekaterinburg, Izd-vo UrO RAN, 2013, 111 p.

6. Sukharev O.S. Strukturnye issledovaniya sovremennoy rossiyskoy ekonomicheskoy shkoly: osnovnye podkhody i perspektivy [Structural Research of the Modern Russian Economic School: Main Approaches and Prospects]. Vestnik Permskogo universiteta, 2022, vol. 17, no 1, pp. 5–26.

7. Leont’ev V.V. Izbrannye stat’i [Featured Articles]. Saint Petersburg, Nevskoe vremya, 1994, 366 p.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.117.2024.27-38

The article analyzes the global economic forecasts for 2024–2025 developed by the World Bank, the IMF, and the OECD. According to the May OECD report, one of the risks to economic development may be an acceleration of inflation in developed countries. In the United States, annual inflation accelerated to 3,5% in March 2024, compared to 3,2% in February. And the US Federal Reserve is ready to postpone the interest rate cut until November 2024. The IMF forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2024 has been improved to 3,2%, but reduced to 1,8% for 2025. For the United States, GDP growth is projected to be 2,1% in 2024, and 1,7% for 2025.

References:

1. Chugunov Artem. The Economy of Developing Overheating. The World Bank Shares the Position of the Bank of Russia on the Nature of Inflation in the Russian Federation. 04/15/2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6648521

2. World Bank. 2024. Global Economic Prospects. January. Washington, DC: World Bank. URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7fe97e0a-52c5-4655-9207-c176eb9fb66a/content

3. Borovikova Kristina. Developing Economies Are Becoming More Attached to Developed Ones. Monitoring the World Economy. 05.04.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6622054

4. Borovikova Kristina. The Grounds for a Global Slowdown Are Being Selected. OECD expects moderate growth in 2024. 06.02.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6493747

5. Edovina Tatyana. Global fun. The IMF has raised its forecasts for the global and Russian economies. 30.01.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6479601

6. Today’s number. Inflation in the OECD in 2023. 08.02.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6495212

7. Borovikova Kristina. The global economy has received additional growth. The OECD has cautiously improved its global GDP forecast. 02.05.2024. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6680489

8. OECD Economic Outlook, May 2024. URL: https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/may-2024/

9. Elvira Nabiullina’s press conference: increase in the key rate, peak inflation. Key points. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6760711

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.114.2024.68-74

The scientific article graphically displays the economic essence of the method of forecast scenarios in assessing the development of competitiveness of tourism services. Target (tactical) development blocks and target development scenarios based on the theory of even subsets have been identified. A matrix of alternative strategies and corresponding tourism growth scenarios at the meso-economic level have been developed: optimistic; pessimistic (risk assessment) and optimal scenario.

References:

1. Galiullin I.R. Innovative competitive advantages of service sector enterprises: macro, meso-level research. I.R. Microeconomics. 2017;6:68-73. (In Russ.).

2. Zhukovskaya I.V. Systematization of scientific approaches to managing competitiveness in the service sector: economic essence, criteria. Microeconomics. 2020;2:29-37. (In Russ.).

3. Leonov E.F. Increasing the competitiveness of small and medium-sized service enterprises based on the formation of institutional space: dis. Ph.D. econ. Sciences: 08.00.05. Leonov Egor Fedorovich. St. Petersburg, 2017. 206 p. (In Russ.).

4. Fatkhutdinov R.A. Managing the competitiveness of an organization. M.: EKSMO, 2005. pp. 542-543. (In Russ.).

5. Khusaenov R.R. Development of Innovative Infrastructure Services in The Conditions of Discreteness of Its Components. International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology. 2020;11(3):276-291.

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.68-69

Review of the book by A.A. Frenkel and A.A. Surkov “Forecasts Merging — an Effective Tool for Increasing Forecasting Accuracy”, dedicated to the analysis of accumulated knowledge about various approaches and methods for constructing a combined forecast. The book provides a forecast for manufacturing certain types of industrial products based on the use of various private and combined forecasting methods and makes a statistical comparison of their accuracy.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.113.2023.76-88

Forecasts are given for 2023–2028 global demand for oil and energy, as well as real GDP growth by region of the world. The linear regression models developed by the authors and graphs of the relationship between the annual growth rate of global GDP and the annual growth rate of global oil and energy demand are presented.

According to the authors, the fight against inflation by the US Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of Europe through raising interest rates leads to a decrease in investment and a decrease in the growth rate of GDP in the US and Europe.

References: 

1. «Prospects for the development of the world economy».  World Bank report dated June 05,2023. URL:  https://www.vsemirnyjbank.org/ru/publication/global- economic-prospects

2. The Central Bank kept the key rate at 7,5%

for the fifth time in a row. KOMMERSANT dated04/28/2023. URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5955429

3. The economy is reaching a plateau. GDP monitoring. KOMMERSANT dated 08/04/2023.

URL: https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6138316

4. EDB macro forecast 2023–2025: economic growth forecast has been improved for all countries in the region. URL: https://eabr.org/press/releases/makroprognoz-eabr-2023–2025-prognozekonomicheskogo-rosta- uluchshen-dlya-vsekhstran-regiona/

5. IEA «Oil 2023 Analysis and forecast to 2028». June 2023. URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2023

6. IEA «World Energy Outlook 2022». URL:

https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/830fe099–5530–48f2-a7c1–11f35d510983/WorldEnergyOutlook2022.pdf

DOI: 10.33917/mic-5.112.2023.16-22

The article examines the regional structure of investment in the development of renewable sources of electricity and the impact of the global energy crisis on its volume. Forecasts are made for the development of renewable energy based on the current state and the impact of the global energy crisis on the plans drawn up by the world community to achieve sustainable development goals. Structural changes in the global energy transition and, in particular, in the process of developing electricity generation based on renewable energy sources in the period from 2021 to 2022 are analyzed.

References: 

1. Energy Institute. Statistical Review of World Energy, 2023. URL: https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review
2. Includes data from Cedigaz. FGE MENAgas service. URL: https://data.subak.org/dataset/gas-trade-in-bcm
3. Novak A. The global energy crisis: who is to blame and what to do? //Energy policy. 2022;2(168):4-11. (In Russ.).
4. IRENA. Renewable energy statistics 2023. URL: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Jul/Renewable-energy-statistics-2023
5. Miles S., Collins G., Mikulska A. US Needs LNG to Fight a Two-Front Gas War, 2022. URL: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/us-needs-lng-fight-two-front-gas-war-0
6. Statistical Review of World Energy 2022. BP, 2022. URL: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf?ysclid=ln797a4qkg508696584
7. International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA. Renewable power generation costs in 2020. – eBook Partnership, 2022. URL: https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020
8. International Renewable Energy Agency IRENA. Renewable power generation costs in 2022. URL: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Aug/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2022
9. IEA. World Energy Investment 2023. URL: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2023
10. Berezkin M.Yu., Degtyarev K.S., Sinyugin O.A. Structural and dynamic characteristics of the investment process in the global renewable energy in the post-crisis period //Plumbing, heating, air conditioning. 2017;1:82-85.
11. Climate Policy Initiative et al. Global Landscape of Renewable Energy Finance 2023. URL: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Feb/Global-landscape-of-renewable-energy-finance-2023
12. BloombergNEF. Energy Transition Investment Trends 2023. URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/webinar/energy-transition-investment-trends-2023/
13. REN21. Renewables 2022 Global Status Report. URL: https://www.unep.org/resources/report/renewables-2022-global-status-report