Global Economy in a Transitional State

#6. Forecasts and Results
Global Economy in a Transitional State

The article draws parallels between the state of the present-day global economy and the Soviet economy in the 1980s. It is assumed that in both cases the diagnosis can be similar and is defined as the socio-economic stagnation. Its main features are: excessive and increasingly growing accumulation of commitments in economic, social, institutional and political spheres as well as lagging and eventually reducing in the course of time possibilities of their implementation. Accordingly, transition to a new model of the global economy may be associated with the same stages, which are known from domestic economic history — crisis, transition period, slow recovery. It is assumed that consumption boom unfolding in Asian countries, which is based on consumer crediting of the population, is becoming a key driver of transition from stagnation to crisis. The author analyses possible consequences for the global economy of a consumer society creation in Asian countries, especially in China. The basic painful consequences of competition between two models of consumer society are defined. The author formulates new global challenges with regard to such consequences and experience of the transition period in our country. It is proposed to take into account these challenges in developing long-term strategies for the development of certain countries or groups of countries, including Russia.

Global Economy in a Transitional State

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
Global Economy in a Transitional State

The article draws parallels between the state of the present-day global economy and the Soviet economy in the 1980s. It is assumed that in both cases the diagnosis can be similar and is defined as the socio-economic stagnation. Its main features are: excessive and increasingly growing accumulation of commitments in economic, social, institutional and political spheres as well as lagging and eventually reducing in the course of time possibilities of their implementation. Accordingly, transition to a new model of the global economy may be associated with the same stages, which are known from domestic economic history — crisis, transition period, slow recovery. It is assumed that consumption boom unfolding in Asian countries, which is based on consumer crediting of the population, is becoming a key driver of transition from stagnation to crisis. The author analyses possible consequences for the global economy of a consumer society creation in Asian countries, especially in China. The basic painful consequences of competition between two models of consumer society are defined. The author formulates new global challenges with regard to such consequences and experience of the transition period in our country. It is proposed to take into account these challenges in developing long-term strategies for the development of certain countries or groups of countries, including Russia.

China’s Bifurcation Point: Search for a New Strategic Model

#2. Noah’s Caste
China's Bifurcation Point: Search for a New Strategic Model

In the last period every year the global economy was increasingly dependent on the pace of China’s economy development, on which many countries have traditionally pinned their hopes for successful exit from the crisis. 2015 has clearly and unequivocally demonstrated the tendency of Chinese critical instability increase. There are many reasons, and one of the most important was the change in the US policy — termination of “quantitative easing” programs, which determines conditions of demand for Chinese goods and the volume of their exports. Once and for all the credit character of “successful” China’s economic growth became apparent, the possibility of obtaining the effect from realizing the model of financial incentives to China’s national economy through increasing the volume of loans and investments is almost exhausted. The main conclusion: there is a direct correlation between the consequences of investment and industrial glut in China due to extreme economic growth and strengthening of structural economic and financial disproportions laying the contours of inevitably arising from them a new round of Chinese and the global economic crises.

Hybrid Warfare. The Armed Conflicts Shape and Palette in the XXI Century

#8. Logic and ethic of fake
Hybrid Warfare. The Armed Conflicts Shape and Palette in the XXI Century

The concept of the “hybrid warfare” has become relevant and quite popular after the Crimea joining to Russia, military operations in the Donbass and growing turbulence associated with the Islamic state phenomenon. These events have substantially influenced the concept of modern warfare, security strategy, combining tools from the conventional, guerrilla, cyber and information warfare arsenals. The report was presented at the special event “Hybrid warfare. The armed conflicts shape and palette in the XXI century” within the XXV Economic Forum in Poland.

Strategic Designing of World Commodity Markets: Lessons of Oil Prices Collapse for Russia

#2. Liberal Indolence Inertia
Strategic Designing of World Commodity Markets: Lessons of Oil Prices Collapse for Russia

Operational result of the strategy being executed by political-economic US clans, which brought to power the current US President Barack Obama and keep under control the majority of European countries political leaders, influence the world economy future and the Russian economy in 2015–2016, is manipulative handling of world oil prices. This strategy is designed to create new economic and political balance of powers in the global arena through trying to expropriate the accumulated financial-economic resources of a number of oil-exporting countries and to focus the short- and medium-term trend of stimulating antirecessionary economic development of the West developed countries, based on increasing natural and industrial resources exploitation, especially Russia, on nonequivalent economic compensation for supplied energy resources. At the same time there is an attempt to unhinge” those political regimes, including Russia, which the West doesn’t like. Russia should draw up adequate conclusions from the current situation, they should form the basis for the national economic sovereignty policy in the ХХI century.

The New Strategic Role of Russia as a Guarantor — Operator of the System for Global and Regional Economic Balances Maintenance

#1. Change of Leader
The New Strategic Role of Russia as a Guarantor — Operator of the System for Global and Regional Economic Balances Maintenance

Crimean events — the significant information signal of the new world era beginning, the era that came to substitute the epoch associated with the Soviet Union collapse. In these circumstances, the strategic role of Russia as a guarantor — operator of the system for global and regional balances maintenance allows it to permanently integrate into the system mechanisms determining the contours of the global macroeconomic models and well-being of national and international economic and political institutions: Russia is back among the great powers.

The World Oil Prices Decline: Will Russia Sustain Macro-Organized Instability Translated From Abroad?

#10. Russia Concentrates?
The World Oil Prices Decline: Will Russia Sustain Macro-Organized Instability Translated From Abroad?

Macro-strategic game of world actors around the oil prices — is not a matter of business, it is a matter of global domination. If Russia sustains translated from abroad strategic trend of macro-organized instability in the form of geo-manipulated oil prices decline, it will mean that the Russian model is not inferior to the US and the EU ones as the main models of forming basic segments of society that finally confirms our status: return among the great powers. Statement of the new forces alignment in the global economy: a legal succession of modern Russia (Third Rome) from the Byzantine, then the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union as one of the world’s key political, economic and civilizational centers has occurred.

The Impact of Financial Integration Level on Changing Macroeconomic Indicators in the Crisis Conditions

#10. Russia Concentrates?
The Impact of Financial Integration Level on Changing Macroeconomic Indicators in the Crisis Conditions

The International Monetary Fund statistics for 12 eurozone countries is analyzed in order to assess the degree of changes synchrony under the crisis influence of such macroeconomic indicators as GDP growth, public debt, inflation level, unemployment and the current account operations. To quantify the observed changes, the values of Kendall concordance coefficient are calculated in equal intervals of time before and after the crisis beginning. Comparison with similar indices changes in groups of countries at a lower level of financial integration was accomplished. On the basis of received results the author discusses hypothesis about the origin of evident systemic economic turbulence in the eurozone under the crisis influence, which led to financial integration level decrease.

Protests as a Mirror of Global Transformation

#6. Territory Without Aims?
Essence of the “National Security” Concept, Mechanism of its Implementation (Theoretical-Legal Aspect)

The article suggests the definition and describes the common traits of political crisis in the context of globalization. It is considered, that phenomena mentioned above are bind with the new global tendencies that shape the future political management principles. Among them — the high rate of human self-organization and the Internet, that became the public space of the 21st century, the world’s town square, that gave rise to public rebels against the political regimes in post-soviet republics and during the “Arab spring” in 2011.

Priority Development Directions of the Property Valuation in the Russian Federation

#1. Beyond Design Basis Evaluations

The Russian professional appraisers community has every opportunity to overcome those crisis effects, that are taking place at the present time.