Author page: Oleg Sukharev

Poverty, Inequality, National Wealth: Empirical Analysis and Policy Implications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.70-81

The article is devoted to the study of poverty and inequality in the economic growth of the most developed countries, with a general focus on the formation of social policy consistent with the growth policy. The purpose of the study is to conduct a macroeconomic analysis of poverty, inequality and wealth in the G7 countries, China and Russia, with the ensuing substantiation of a social development strategy for the Russian economy. The methodology is made up of empirical analysis, as well as regression modeling, which make it possible to identify in a comparative way the connectivity of the dynamics of relevant indicators of social development  — the level of national poverty and wealth, the Gini coefficient and general inequality, growth rate, human development index. The result of the study is a precisely confirmed empirical relationship between the level of poverty and inequality for the countries considered, that is, a high value of one parameter corresponds to a high value of another. Consequently, poverty reduction may imply a reduction in inequality, and not only relative, but also absolute. In addition, it was found that for developed countries, high levels of poverty and inequality mean low values of the human development index. Social policy aimed at human development requires that its instruments be harmonized, including the necessary alignment with the current macroeconomic policies to stimulate growth. The magnitude of national wealth does not guarantee high growth rates, as well as low levels of inequality and poverty. A high level of inequality can accompany economic growth, having a positive effect on the growth rate, as for the Russian economy. In this regard, the current policy needs a reasonable selection of measures to stimulate growth and, at the same time, measures to reduce inequality, which can and should not be limited only to tax changes that require special confirmation of influence, but to institutional changes that regulate the creation and appropriation of income.

Источники:

1. Aganbegyan A.G. Kak preodolet’ stagnatsiyu i novyi krizis, obespechiv sotsial’no-ekonomicheskii rost [How to Overcome Stagnation and New Crisis, Providing Socio-Economic Growth]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2020, vol. 22, no 5, pp. 34–45, DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.34-45; no 6, pp. 6–19, DOI: 10.33917/es-6.172.2020.6-19.

2. Adzhimoglu D., Robinson Dzh.A. Pochemu odni strany bogatye, a drugie bednye. Proiskhozhdenie vlasti, protsvetaniya i nishchety [Why Some Countries are Rich and Others are Poor. The Origin of Power, Prosperity and Poverty]. Moscow, AST, 2016, 693 p.

3. Livshits V.N. Bednost’ i neravenstvo dokhodov naseleniya v Rossii i za rubezhom [Poverty and Inequality of the Population Incomes in Russia and Abroad]. Moscow, IE RAN, 2017, 52 p.

4. Stiglits Dzh. Tsena neravenstva. Chem rassloenie obshchestva grozit nashemu budushchemu? [The Cost of Inequality. How does Social Stratification Threaten Our Future?]. Moscow, Eksmo, 2015, 512 p.

The Economic Attack on Russia and the Policy of Counteraction

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.182.2022.40-47

The purpose of the study is to show the patterns of the deployment of an economic attack on Russia. The research methodology is a comparative and retrospective analysis, elements of a structural approach. In the course of the analysis, a result was obtained that boils down to the fact that the current model of the world economy with a high level of integration and dependence of the economy poses a threat to the national security of the country. Economic warfare is carried out through damaging sanctions. Good conditions for it were created by the liberal economic policy pursued in Russia, which held back growth. Moreover, such outcomes are typical not only for economic activity, but also for the functioning of science and education — “invisible” sanctions, which creates a long-term perspective of dependent and driven development. It is necessary to ensure control over the distribution of property owners in the domestic market, planning procedures that are reduced to the establishment of thresholds in the field of imports, exports in various areas of activity, as well as the admission of foreign resources and institutional rules to the domestic market. With the implementation of such an institutional policy, sanctions would cause much less damage or their negative effect would be absent. Today, it is necessary to resist the economic attack by maximizing the withdrawal of assets from the dollar denomination, pursuing an anti-devaluation policy, cutting off the banking system from the speculative depreciation game, and intensifying efforts to replace imports in each industry. It is required to close the contours of production to the domestic market with the re-profiling of production, practicing the seizure of foreign property as a response to similar external actions. Such actions require a systematic state policy in all areas of coordination of industries and activities.

Источники:

 

1. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Bitva za lide rstvo v XXI veke. Rossiya, SShA, Kitai. Sem’ variantov blizhaishego budushchego [The Battle for Leadership in the XXI Century. Russia, USA, China. Seven Options for the Near Future]. Moscow, Knizhnyi mir, 2017, 352 p.

2. L’vov D.S. Ekonomika razvitiya [Development Economics]. Moscow, Ekzamen, 2002, 512 p.

3. Sukharev O.S. “Izvrashchennyi monetarism” budet diktovat’ ekonomicheskuyu strategiyu razvitiya Rossii? [“Perverted Monetarism” will Dictate the Economic Development Strategy of Russia?]. Investitsii v Rossii, 2017, no 6, pp. 27–35.

4. Krugman P. Depressii — eto nechto inoe [Depression is Something Else]. Ekonomika dlya lyuboznatel’nykh: o chem razmyshlyayut nobelevskie laureaty. Moscow, Izd-vo instituta Gaidara, 2017, pp. 26–27.

5. Sukharev O.S. Ekonomicheskie sanktsii: problema otsenki ushcherba [Economic Sanctions: the Problem of Damage Assessment]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel’stvo, 2017, no 8-4, vol. 11, pp. 80–87.

6. Anchishkin A.I. Prognozirovanie tempov i faktorov ekonomicheskogo rosta [Forecasting Rates and Factors of Economic Growth]. Moscow, Maks-Press, 2003, 300 p.

Expertise of Solutions in the Public Administration System

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-1.181.2022.80-91

The purpose of the study is to analyze the expert activity in the Russian Federation, with the receipt of basic recommendations for the deployment of a system of state expertise. The research methodology is a comparative, retrospective analysis, a method of taxonomy of management problems and the solution of poorly structured problems. The application of the indicated methodology allowed us to come to the main result, which boils down to the fact that in Russia expert activity at the state level has significant limitations for many reasons, which reduces the effectiveness of analytical management. This constitutes a condition for the failure of many programs and doctrines, namely strategic documents for development until 2020, and also blocks the formation of a new model of economic growth at the level of the state policy pursued for a decade. In addition, ill-considered reforms in education, science, and the administrative sphere also confirm the existence of significant gaps in the field of analytical public administration. Overcoming the listed problems is seen in the deployment of a system of state expertise on the basis of the relevant Federal Law with the leading role of the Academy of Sciences, since expertise involves exploratory, scientific activities, multivariate analysis and predictive assessments. In the course of the analysis, including the drafts of the Regulation on the support of expert activities in the executive authorities of Russia, developed at the Academy of Sciences, it is nevertheless proposed to abandon the public status of expert councils, as well as to change approaches in the field of recommendations and consideration of the examinations   themselves. Also proposed are corrections of some rules for voting on expertise and the level of responsibility of the experts themselves for their conclusions, including the responsibility of the authorities regarding the consideration of expert opinions. Thus, in the course of the study, he proposes to launch a large-scale work on the formation of a system of state expertise that functions at all levels of management with budgetary resources allocated for this.

Источники:

1. Chichkanov V.P., Sukharev O.S. Razvit ie Rossiiskoi akademii nauk: reshenie organizatsionnykh zadach [Development of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Solution of Organizational Tasks]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2021, no 3, pp. 120–129. DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.120-129.

2. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 4 fevralya 2021 g. N 68 “Ob otsenke effektivnosti deyatel’nosti vysshikh dolzhnostnykh lits (rukovoditelei vysshikh ispolnitel’nykh organov gosudarstvennoi vlasti) sub”ektov Rossiiskoi Federatsii i deyatel’nosti organov ispolnitel’noi vlasti sub”ektov Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [On the Assessment of the Effectiveness of the Activities of Senior Officials (Heads of the Highest Executive Bodies of State Power) of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation and the Activities of the Executive Bodies of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation: Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of February 4, 2021 No. 68]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF. URL: http://kremlin.ru/acts/ news/64970.

Development of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Solution of Organizational Tasks

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.177.2021.120-129

The purpose of the article is to determine the main directions of development of the Russian Academy of Sciences in cooperation with the executive and legislative authorities of Russia. As a rule, behind general phrases about the reform of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian society is poorly informed about the current activities of the Academy of Sciences. The authors set themselves the task of filling this gap, of course, by bringing in their own proposals and some vision of the tasks of the development of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The methodology of this work is a comparative analysis, approaches to setting strategic objectives for the development of science and planning this process. The results of the study made it possible to concretize the tasks of the RAS development, highlighting the segment where the Academy itself is obliged to make changes to solve the necessary tasks, as well as the area of responsibility for changes at the level of the executive and, separately, the legislative branch. In addition, the directions have been established in which the RAS has an undoubted success in implementation, requiring its increase, as well as the necessary organizational changes, the need for which is very high in the context of intensifying scientific competition and the advanced development of science. The set of proposals will make it possible to recreate the chain of “fundamental science — R&D — production”, attracting backbone corporations of a science-intensive and other profile to such interaction. The article proposes a system of promising changes in the activities of the Russian Academy of Sciences, substantiates the position that they are able to increase the efficiency of science, without reducing it to what science should give to the economy instantly.

Economic Growth and Inequality: Revision of the Economic Policy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-2.176.2021.76-87

Alexander Nikolaevich Nesmeyanov, one of the most underestimated presidents of the Academy of Sciences, was a great originalminded scientist who opened up organoelement chemistry to the world as an independent science and later on — an artificial food, to which the world turns again after several decades. These milestones of his biography are well known to scientific community, as well as his leadership of Moscow State University during the new complex construction on the Lenin Hills, creation of INEOS and VINITI. 10-years period of his biography, when he was a President of the USSR Academy of Sciences, is much less known. It was in this position that he manifested enormous talent as an organizer of the country’s modern science management system, where the Academy of Sciences played an important role. Many thoughts and deeds of A.N. Nesmeyanov are especially relevant today.

Modern World Crisis and Russia: Diagnostics and Status of Overcoming

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.172.2020.20-31

The purpose of the study is to generalize the conditions that provoke the economic recession of 2020, taking into account the analysis of the pre-crisis dynamics of the Russian economy according to the parameters characterizing its innovative and technological development. The method of studying the relationships between the relevant development parameters is econometric modeling and regression analysis, which allow to identify the specific characteristics of the crisis in the innovative and technological development of the Russian economy. The analysis of the pre-crisis pattern of the movement of labor resources distracted from old industries in favor of new activities, and created specifically for new types of production. The sensitivity of the level of manufacturability to investments in old and new technologies, the influence of innovative agents on the economic dynamics in Russia are determined. The result of the study is the quantitative estimates obtained, which for the Russian economy, in comparison, for example, with other countries confirm the folding of the innovation process in its systemic dimension. Therefore, the diagnosis of the state of this sphere gives a conclusion about its crisis state. The decrease in the rate of economic growth in Russia was accompanied by a decrease in the number of innovative agents, the diversion of resources from old industries decreased, as did the creation of a new labor resource for new industries.

Structure of Economic Growth of the Countries of the Eurasian Union

DOI: 10.33917/es-2.168.2020.112-123

The purpose of the study is to determine the existing growth models of the countries of the Eurasian Union by GDP expenditures and sectors (manufacturing, transactional raw materials). The research methodology is a macroeconomic analysis of the dynamics of the main indicator of economic development — gross domestic product. The research method is a structural analysis that allows you to get a structural formula for calculating the contribution of each component of GDP to the growth rate, as well as a comparative analysis of the dynamics models of the countries in question — Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia. The result of the study is the obtained structural relationships that make it possible to measure the influence of the investment structure on the growth rate, the criteria describing economic growth with a corresponding change in the country’s national wealth, as well as the identification of models of economic dynamics by the countries of the Eurasian Union. It is indicative that the transaction sector dominates in Kazakhstan and Russia, while in other countries a mixed model is found, or industrial growth as in Belarus. According to the components of GDP and expenditures of the country, either a mixed or a consumer model is found (Kyrgyzstan, Russia), however, the contribution of government spending to the growth rate is provided only in Kazakhstan. It was also revealed that the reaction to the crisis of 2009 and 2015 was fundamentally different for the countries of the Eurasian Union. The search for the factor conditions of such a prevailing dynamics, as well as the influence of union economic relations on the formation of a growth model in each country, requires an expansion of research and an analytical perspective

Machining Production of Russia: Structure of Innovations and Export Strategy and Replacement of Import of Machines

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.164.2019.78-89

The purpose of the study is to assess the dynamics of the manufacturing industries in Russia. According to the “structural formula”, the contribution of innovations in various types of activities to the overall dynamics of innovations in manufacturing industries is assessed, which makes it possible to identify the dominant innovations in economic sectors. This approach is useful in order to differentiate the methods of industrial (sectoral) policy, including national projects as an institutional tool for managing the development of the Russian economy, since it identifies those areas that require special incentives for the innovation process. The structure of innovation is heterogeneous, the contribution by different types of activity varies significantly, which indicates the instability of the process of innovative development. Two strategies are considered for the functioning of processing industries: the export of machinery and the substitution of machinery imports. It is shown that these strategies can not be reduced to one another, except for special cases and suggest different possibilities. The parameter of structural independence for the Russian engineering industry has steadily decreased and its dynamics has been stabilized at low values, as shown by the method of phase portraits of the change in this indicator. This suggests that the domestic economy and engineering remain highly dependent on imports of machinery, equipment and technology, and leads to the conclusion that the import substitution policy is not, firstly, sufficient, and secondly, structural internal changes are required in the economy, so that import substitution and the development of export manufacturing industries give a positive systemic result. On the basis of quantitative assessments, a fundamental conclusion was obtained that the import substitution policy itself will certainly not have a high performance (locally limited effect), which it could potentially have when the internal flow of resources changes towards the processing sectors

Macroeconomic Policy and Structural Changes: Alternatives Transmission Mechanism

#2. Breakthrough Betting
Macroeconomic Policy and Structural Changes: Alternatives Transmission Mechanism

The issue of the connection of current macroeconomic policy measures and structural changes is being investigated. Approaches that focus on the behavior of macroaggregates, as a rule, do not take into account the structural and institutional characteristics of the economic system. These characteristics are now becoming relevant in the field of economic development. Macroeconomic policy is based on a transfer mechanism, which is a set of measures and instruments that affect economic dynamics. However, until now the transfer mechanism of macroeconomic policy has changed, without taking into account structural and institutional characteristics — the Keynesian prescriptions have been replaced by monetarist, “offer economics”, “real cycle theory”, and theoretical generalizations were the basis of the transfer mechanism. The modern economy is changing so rapidly that the fundamental generalizations lag behind the pace of these changes, which leads experts responsible for macroeconomic policy to develop measures according to the practical feasibility and vision of solving certain problems, sometimes based on a priori established connection of individual parameters, for example, the money supply and GDP, inflation and employment levels, or inflation and money supply, etc. Usually the presence of feedbacks is considered weakly, as well as does not subordinate the measures of the current policy of the country’s development strategy, since the strategic program is simply another set of tools that should lead to different results.

Comparative Analysis of Macroeconomic Dynamics of the Developed Countries: USA, Germany, China, Russia

#7. Connected Space
Comparative Analysis of Macroeconomic Dynamics of the Developed Countries: USA, Germany, China, Russia

The study is devoted to comparing the characteristics of the macroeconomic dynamics of the US, Germany, China and Russia, with the goal of establishing not only differences and similar elements of this dynamics, but also identifying the most expedient ways to further implement the instruments of the macroeconomic policy pursued. Counteraction to the economic crisis presupposes institutional corrections, since the standard recipes of macroeconomic policy are weak in changing the situation, since the importance of, for example, financial institutions, the banking system, etc. However, the coherence of macroaggregates needs to be taken into account, moreover, it has its own peculiarities in each country, thus, the general methods of macroeconomic policy require detailed elaboration based on the development task and the current dynamics. The expediency of a moderately expansionary monetary policy for the Russian economy is shown, and the comparative and comparative method of analysis confirms that the USA and Russia demonstrate a similar dynamics of macroaggregates in general properties, Germany and China are also close to each other, although some parameters and connections are different. However, in the US and Russia (Fisher’s growth model), the decline in inflation has little effect on growth, in Germany and China, growth is accompanied by inflation (Schumpeter’s growth). The result of the comparative analysis using the matrix of pair correlations and obtained regressions should be used to correct macroeconomic policy measures in the countries examined. In addition, this comparison will prevent governments from mechanically copying macroeconomic instruments.