Author page: Oleg Sukharev

The Problem of Organizing Economic Growth: Divergence of Views

#1. Long-Lasting Choice
The Problem of Organizing Economic Growth: Divergence of Views

The subject of the study was the problem of elaborating the economic growth policy in Russia. The economy’s exit from recession requires justification of government policy measures contributing not only to overcome the crisis, but also to bring the economy to a path of sustainable economic growth at a given rate. The article deals with positions of economists, representing two major camps in their views on the economic policy of growth — expansionists and restrictionists. The first are in favor of active stimulation of the economy by means of budgetary and monetary policy, while the latter profess policy of cutting expenditures and carrying out individual reforms which, in their view, will improve the quality of economy functioning (judicial reform, privatization, etc.). Applying comparative analysis, based on the facts of economic growth and the crisis in Russia, the author substantiates the necessity of forming a new model of growth for our country, indicates strategic directions of such policy and presents scientific arguments that confirm this choice. For example, it is shown that for promoting investment in the first phase of the exit from recession it is necessary not only to build-up the rate of investment, but to stimulate aggregate consumption and to restore the level of citizens’ incomes. The existing choice between expansion and restriction as types of policy is not so unequivocal, because there are serious constraints on monetary expansion, and to consider this kind of policy in Russia apart from other systemic effects that should be commensurate with this policy model while implementing it, is inappropriate. Economic policy of a new growth should be based on the presence of feedback and influences in the economic system and should correctly evaluate the current status against established strategic guidelines.

Economic Growth of Rapidly Changing Economy. Development Strategy

#6. Forecasts and Results
Economic Growth of Rapidly Changing Economy. Development Strategy

The article dwells on the problem of economic growth organization in the world economic system, as well as the question of implementing the catch-up and outstripping development strategies for countries lagging behind in development. The author gives a simple model of the system economic growth and demonstrates the major factors determining the development strategy. The author substantiates an adequate strategy of advanced development in Russia, taking into account global changes, structural changes, technological regimes (trajectories) of development, carries out an empirical analysis of economic growth results from 1961 to 2012 inclusive. The idea of the factor productivity evaluation is fundamental in the framework of modern theories of economic growth. Yet the structural parameters of the economic system, institutions and technological changes, though the latter are reflected in the changing parameters of the production function, practically are not taken into account in the framework of the known approaches. However, the ratio of structural elements, on the one hand, defines the future value of an aggregated factors productivity, and on the other — has a strong effect on the rate of economic growth and on the mode of its innovative dynamics. Introduction of the economic system’s structural parameters into growth models with the possibility to evaluate such regimes in terms of interaction of old and new combinations represents a significant step in evolution of the economic growth (development) theory. It allows to form a policy of stimulating economic growth based on structural relations and ties, identified for this economic system. It is most convenient in obtaining such models to take advantage of logistics functions, representing a resource modification for the old and the new combinations within the economic system. Result of the economy development depends on the initial conditions, as well as on the institutional parameters of changes in the resource borrowing rates in favor of a new combination and creating its proper resource. Resource formalization in a model is carried out through the idea of investing into new and old combinations.

Economic Growth of Rapidly Changing Economy. Development Strategy

#4. Window of Opportunities
Economic Growth of Rapidly Changing Economy. Development Strategy

The article dwells on the problem of economic growth organization in the world economic system, as well as the question of implementing the catch-up and outstripping development strategies for countries lagging behind in development. The author gives a simple model of the system economic growth and demonstrates the major factors determining the development strategy. The author substantiates an adequate strategy of advanced development in Russia, taking into account global changes, structural changes, technological regimes (trajectories) of development, carries out an empirical analysis of economic growth results from 1961 to 2012 inclusive. The idea of the factor productivity evaluation is fundamental in the framework of modern theories of economic growth. Yet the structural parameters of the economic system, institutions and technological changes, though the latter are reflected in the changing parameters of the production function, practically are not taken into account in the framework of the known approaches. However, the ratio of structural elements, on the one hand, defines the future value of an aggregated factors productivity, and on the other — has a strong effect on the rate of economic growth and on the mode of its innovative dynamics. Introduction of the economic system’s structural parameters into growth models with the possibility to evaluate such regimes in terms of interaction of old and new combinations represents a significant step in evolution of the economic growth (development) theory. It allows to form a policy of stimulating economic growth based on structural relations and ties, identified for this economic system. It is most convenient in obtaining such models to take advantage of logistics functions, representing a resource modification for the old and the new combinations within the economic system. Result of the economy development depends on the initial conditions, as well as on the institutional parameters of changes in the resource borrowing rates in favor of a new combination and creating its proper resource. Resource formalization in a model is carried out through the idea of investing into new and old combinations.