DOI: 10.33917/es-6.164.2019.78-89

The purpose of the study is to assess the dynamics of the manufacturing industries in Russia. According to the “structural formula”, the contribution of innovations in various types of activities to the overall dynamics of innovations in manufacturing industries is assessed, which makes it possible to identify the dominant innovations in economic sectors. This approach is useful in order to differentiate the methods of industrial (sectoral) policy, including national projects as an institutional tool for managing the development of the Russian economy, since it identifies those areas that require special incentives for the innovation process. The structure of innovation is heterogeneous, the contribution by different types of activity varies significantly, which indicates the instability of the process of innovative development. Two strategies are considered for the functioning of processing industries: the export of machinery and the substitution of machinery imports. It is shown that these strategies can not be reduced to one another, except for special cases and suggest different possibilities. The parameter of structural independence for the Russian engineering industry has steadily decreased and its dynamics has been stabilized at low values, as shown by the method of phase portraits of the change in this indicator. This suggests that the domestic economy and engineering remain highly dependent on imports of machinery, equipment and technology, and leads to the conclusion that the import substitution policy is not, firstly, sufficient, and secondly, structural internal changes are required in the economy, so that import substitution and the development of export manufacturing industries give a positive systemic result. On the basis of quantitative assessments, a fundamental conclusion was obtained that the import substitution policy itself will certainly not have a high performance (locally limited effect), which it could potentially have when the internal flow of resources changes towards the processing sectors

The issue of the connection of current macroeconomic policy measures and structural changes is being investigated. Approaches that focus on the behavior of macroaggregates, as a rule, do not take into account the structural and institutional characteristics of the economic system. These characteristics are now becoming relevant in the field of economic development. Macroeconomic policy is based on a transfer mechanism, which is a set of measures and instruments that affect economic dynamics. However, until now the transfer mechanism of macroeconomic policy has changed, without taking into account structural and institutional characteristics — the Keynesian prescriptions have been replaced by monetarist, “offer economics”, “real cycle theory”, and theoretical generalizations were the basis of the transfer mechanism. The modern economy is changing so rapidly that the fundamental generalizations lag behind the pace of these changes, which leads experts responsible for macroeconomic policy to develop measures according to the practical feasibility and vision of solving certain problems, sometimes based on a priori established connection of individual parameters, for example, the money supply and GDP, inflation and employment levels, or inflation and money supply, etc. Usually the presence of feedbacks is considered weakly, as well as does not subordinate the measures of the current policy of the country’s development strategy, since the strategic program is simply another set of tools that should lead to different results.

The study is devoted to comparing the characteristics of the macroeconomic dynamics of the US, Germany, China and Russia, with the goal of establishing not only differences and similar elements of this dynamics, but also identifying the most expedient ways to further implement the instruments of the macroeconomic policy pursued. Counteraction to the economic crisis presupposes institutional corrections, since the standard recipes of macroeconomic policy are weak in changing the situation, since the importance of, for example, financial institutions, the banking system, etc. However, the coherence of macroaggregates needs to be taken into account, moreover, it has its own peculiarities in each country, thus, the general methods of macroeconomic policy require detailed elaboration based on the development task and the current dynamics. The expediency of a moderately expansionary monetary policy for the Russian economy is shown, and the comparative and comparative method of analysis confirms that the USA and Russia demonstrate a similar dynamics of macroaggregates in general properties, Germany and China are also close to each other, although some parameters and connections are different. However, in the US and Russia (Fisher’s growth model), the decline in inflation has little effect on growth, in Germany and China, growth is accompanied by inflation (Schumpeter’s growth). The result of the comparative analysis using the matrix of pair correlations and obtained regressions should be used to correct macroeconomic policy measures in the countries examined. In addition, this comparison will prevent governments from mechanically copying macroeconomic instruments.

A strong determinant of modern economic growth from the standpoint of evolutionary economy are new combinations that are considered to be the main generator of technological and institutional changes. However, review and description of economic development on the basis of the principle of “creative destruction” is not satisfactory, since it does not take into account the effects of technologies combination with obtaining a new quality of the economic system in terms of its technological level, affecting the work of specific institutions. Taxonomic approach to describing economic and technological evolution becomes unconvincing, at least insufficient for forming well-founded variants of economic policy of growth and decision-making on managing technological changes. The examples show the influence of the “combinatorial buildup” principle within the observed technological changes, as well as the need to use this principle at the level of both theoretical description of the problem of economic growth and formation of a scientific-technological policy of growth for developed and developing countries.

The article dwells on the basic principles and problems of technological development that arise from the specifics of certain technologies. The choice of technological capabilities at the individual and firm level cannot comply solely with the investment logic of decision-making, as the technologies life cycle includes unpredictable effects that can significantly improve the return, which cannot be anticipated at the initial point of transition from one technological opportunity to another. Technologies are characterized by special properties, which have a decisive influence on the course of technological development. And these properties are not characteristic for other types of goods, this fact fundamentally distinguishes formation of demand for new technologies and affects the options for their use. Any technology consists of a kind of nucleus and variable periphery, is characterized by various kinds of animation effects and can also be an integral element of the combinatorial effect in the sphere of technologies. Owing to this “frame” that defines the structure of technology, it acts as a kind of a rule that determines the behavior of agents and conditions for developing the service infrastructure. Existing models of economic growth do not fully take into account the microeconomic institutional properties of technology, creating a pseudo-correct image of technologies’ impact on the system’s growth. In this regard, formation of the theory framework for the economic system processability will provide the necessary guidance in describing and investigating technological and institutional changes and economic growth, which are highly dependent on them. The aggregate productivity of factors also becomes to a significant degree a system parameter, dependent on overall technological applicability and institutional changes. The article describes the main characteristics of functioning of the fundamental research sector, which acts as the generator of all subsequent technological changes in a long range of economic development.

The subject of the study was the problem of elaborating the economic growth policy in Russia. The economy’s exit from recession requires justification of government policy measures contributing not only to overcome the crisis, but also to bring the economy to a path of sustainable economic growth at a given rate. The article deals with positions of economists, representing two major camps in their views on the economic policy of growth — expansionists and restrictionists. The first are in favor of active stimulation of the economy by means of budgetary and monetary policy, while the latter profess policy of cutting expenditures and carrying out individual reforms which, in their view, will improve the quality of economy functioning (judicial reform, privatization, etc.). Applying comparative analysis, based on the facts of economic growth and the crisis in Russia, the author substantiates the necessity of forming a new model of growth for our country, indicates strategic directions of such policy and presents scientific arguments that confirm this choice. For example, it is shown that for promoting investment in the first phase of the exit from recession it is necessary not only to build-up the rate of investment, but to stimulate aggregate consumption and to restore the level of citizens’ incomes. The existing choice between expansion and restriction as types of policy is not so unequivocal, because there are serious constraints on monetary expansion, and to consider this kind of policy in Russia apart from other systemic effects that should be commensurate with this policy model while implementing it, is inappropriate. Economic policy of a new growth should be based on the presence of feedback and influences in the economic system and should correctly evaluate the current status against established strategic guidelines.

The article dwells on the problem of economic growth organization in the world economic system, as well as the question of implementing the catch-up and outstripping development strategies for countries lagging behind in development. The author gives a simple model of the system economic growth and demonstrates the major factors determining the development strategy. The author substantiates an adequate strategy of advanced development in Russia, taking into account global changes, structural changes, technological regimes (trajectories) of development, carries out an empirical analysis of economic growth results from 1961 to 2012 inclusive. The idea of the factor productivity evaluation is fundamental in the framework of modern theories of economic growth. Yet the structural parameters of the economic system, institutions and technological changes, though the latter are reflected in the changing parameters of the production function, practically are not taken into account in the framework of the known approaches. However, the ratio of structural elements, on the one hand, defines the future value of an aggregated factors productivity, and on the other — has a strong effect on the rate of economic growth and on the mode of its innovative dynamics. Introduction of the economic system’s structural parameters into growth models with the possibility to evaluate such regimes in terms of interaction of old and new combinations represents a significant step in evolution of the economic growth (development) theory. It allows to form a policy of stimulating economic growth based on structural relations and ties, identified for this economic system. It is most convenient in obtaining such models to take advantage of logistics functions, representing a resource modification for the old and the new combinations within the economic system. Result of the economy development depends on the initial conditions, as well as on the institutional parameters of changes in the resource borrowing rates in favor of a new combination and creating its proper resource. Resource formalization in a model is carried out through the idea of investing into new and old combinations.

The article dwells on the problem of economic growth organization in the world economic system, as well as the question of implementing the catch-up and outstripping development strategies for countries lagging behind in development. The author gives a simple model of the system economic growth and demonstrates the major factors determining the development strategy. The author substantiates an adequate strategy of advanced development in Russia, taking into account global changes, structural changes, technological regimes (trajectories) of development, carries out an empirical analysis of economic growth results from 1961 to 2012 inclusive. The idea of the factor productivity evaluation is fundamental in the framework of modern theories of economic growth. Yet the structural parameters of the economic system, institutions and technological changes, though the latter are reflected in the changing parameters of the production function, practically are not taken into account in the framework of the known approaches. However, the ratio of structural elements, on the one hand, defines the future value of an aggregated factors productivity, and on the other — has a strong effect on the rate of economic growth and on the mode of its innovative dynamics. Introduction of the economic system’s structural parameters into growth models with the possibility to evaluate such regimes in terms of interaction of old and new combinations represents a significant step in evolution of the economic growth (development) theory. It allows to form a policy of stimulating economic growth based on structural relations and ties, identified for this economic system. It is most convenient in obtaining such models to take advantage of logistics functions, representing a resource modification for the old and the new combinations within the economic system. Result of the economy development depends on the initial conditions, as well as on the institutional parameters of changes in the resource borrowing rates in favor of a new combination and creating its proper resource. Resource formalization in a model is carried out through the idea of investing into new and old combinations.