In the process of development, the scientific (natural philosophy, Baconian) perception paradigm faces at least two cognitive limits, the first of which is due to insufficient dimension of human thinking, its inability to accommodate all scientific knowledge (Leibnitz limit), and the second is related to internal paradox and latent groundlessness of the paradigm itself.
Author page: Sergey Pereslegin
According to a number of leading Russian experts in the field of strategy designing and forecasting, in Ust-Kachka they managed to organize the work of the “factory of the new generation thought”. Combination of conceptual, strategic and event levels when considering, not only the predictive assembly by the PEST directions, but also joining into the matrix by the levels “World” – “Country” – “Region” allowed to provide a very high percentage of coincidences between forecast and the fact. Economic Strategies magazine considers it necessary to get acquainted its readers with the results of Ust-Kachka – 2018.
Soon we’ll celebrate the 100th anniversary from the end of the First World War. To a large extent this war is still considered as a political, not a historical event, but it is already far enough in the past and can become the subject of an impartial research. In the present situation, of particular interest are the details of unleashing the war and specifics of its institutionalization, that is, its turning into a bloody conflict for years, the cost of which — in human lives, in money terms, and in social deformations — has repeatedly exceeded the value of disputed territories and assets. The authors are interested in a slightly different problem, though closely related to the above-mentioned: mechanisms of changing military and political leaders who demonstrated their inadequacy in wartime conditions.
An attempt to establish a rule of law in Russia resulted in creation of a very complicated and inefficient legal system. Some Russian laws have a Soviet, if not earlier, origin, others are related to international and foreign law, yet others are the fruit of the State Duma thinking activity, still others are composed by executive authority or even its separate branches, since regional and local legislation also exists. In this paper, the authors analyze Russian legislation applying the “communal conception” of laws, that is without making a formal distinction between properly laws and normative acts that are in force throughout the whole territory of the Russian Federation and binding for execution.
In the basis of modern globalized science there is the science itself, and it is postulated that it is objective, law-abiding (discursive), is the only correct, last, final method of cognition, hasn’t got a civilizational, cultural, linguistic or national component. But if the world is too complicated for single-focus control, then the Universe must be too complicated for single-focal cognition. Then globalized science, considered as the only possible format of cognition, creates a number of unacceptable risks at the level of humanity, as it fixes very narrow range of possible development scenarios. Therefore, it is necessary to create a description of the science dependencies, to answer the question of how language, cultural codes, civilizational preferences, national character and national interests are reflected in methodology of science, directions and paces of its development, how these social determinants fit into the scientific cognition results and where they are contained in these results.
Interaction of the Federal Law № 172-FZ of June 28, 2014 “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation” (with amendments) (hereinafter referred to as “172-FZ”) and the Federal Law № 131-FZ of October 6, 2003 “On general principles of the organization of local self-government in the Russian Federation” (hereinafter referred to as 131-FZ) causes two information flows: the downstream — from the Federation level “downwards” and the upward stream — from the municipal districts (MD) “upwards”. These flows meet at the level of the subject of the Federation. The author suggests several assembly schemes that integrate local strategies within the framework of strategic planning of the subjects of the Federation. All these schemes, although being based on a certain historical experience, remain rather conceptual. Their adaptation to management practice is a matter of the nearest future.
Today, the basic managerial task is to strategize scientific work within the Federal Law № 172-FZ “On strategic planning in the Russian Federation”, including research mapping and schematization, connectivity analysis, resource maneuvering. “Digital Revolution” has created a tool of working with information arrays — BigData, which made it possible to structure scientific research, separating “human” and “inhuman” components. If scientific problem can be solved transferring BigData into DeepData, we should attribute it to scientific surveys (science study). Artificial intelligence today is already solving this type of problems better than a human being. As scientific research (science research) we shall consider creation of something new that has no obvious predecessors. Modern A.I. cannot carry out such work, as it goes beyond the Turing test. It is prerogative of a man, capable to distinguish another from new and important from unimportant. Separately we consider scientific investigation (science investigation): OverSite, search for alternative ways of scientific thinking development and the problem of changing scientific paradigm, post-Baconian cognition. Ranking of science through separating the levels of study, research and investigation is the basis for scientific research scaling, which is an integral part of the mechanism for scientific research strategic management.
PEST can be regarded as a high-quality analog of a quantitative mathematical model used, for example, in the budgeting process. Calculations presume a variation of some variables within the model, including the expert one. Such variation is inevitable since any model only to some extent is similar to the simulated system and the “observer’s” expert position is important. At the entrance of the mathematical model there are figures defined with some accuracy, at the output there are also figures, expertly substantiated and simulated. PEST represents a “semantic model” containing basic “event trees”. At the entrance to this model there are events that “happened”. At the output — their development forecast, if “this” has happened, “this and that” will certainly happen and with some probability “or this, or that”. The forecast presumes the work of an expert who subjects the event to a modeling framework of PEST-analysis. With events development in reality it becomes possible to compare two semantic networks, one of which is referred to “forecasted”, and the other — to “happened” events structure. An expert, and in some simple cases even a computer program, can either attribute a happened event to one of the scenario branches existing in the forecast or to come out with a suggestion on the emergence of a new branch, or, finally, to conclude that the given event is an imitation, that is, has a “non-physical character”. The latter is very important, but needs verification by subsequent events. Thus, the proposed PEST-analysis in the context of “world — country — region” is some semantic “model”, forming “forecasted” semantic trees and networks, allowing to classify operational event-series (“extract meaning”) and to forecast their further development from the strategic perspective point of view. This method seems relevant from the perspective of realization (and automation) of the problem of continuous dynamic strategic management, which is extremely important while the world system is passing ugh the “bifurcation point”.