The "Economic Strategies" journal

#4. 2025. Beijing-style Yalta




Methodological Issues of Risk Assessment in Large Investment Projects. Part 1

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.202.2025.134-137

The article substantiates a working toolkit for assessing the risks of implementing alternative projects aimed at creation and production of supersonic passenger aircraft in Russia based on the SWOT analysis techniques. The authors propose a methodological approach to formalizing definition of the competition intensity between manufacturers, as well as the degree of suppliers’ and buyers’ influence on them (developing the conceptual provisions of M. Porter’s five forces of competition model) based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. Primary matrix is constructed. Contribution of each factor to the overall integral result is calculated using the modified method of analyzing the internal and external environment profiles, proposed by the authors. The main factors of the project’s effectiveness and threats to its successful completion are identified. Preliminary assessment of the potential need of Russian aviation companies for supersonic aircraft designed for passenger transportation in the Far Eastern Federal District is given.

References:

1. Vedmed’ I.Yu. Analiz kolichestvennykh metodov otsenki riskov investitsionnykh proektov: Sb. dokladov XI Mezhdunarodnoy konferentsii “Rossiyskie regiony v fokuse peremen”. Ekaterinburg, 17–19 noyabrya 2016 g. [Analysis of Quantitative Methods for Assessing Investment Project Risks: Collection of Papers from the XI International Conference “Russian Regions in the Focus of Change”. Ekaterinburg, November 17–19, 2016]. Ekaterinburg, Izd-vo UMTs UPI, 2016, part 1, pp. 52–61.

2. Koshechkin S.A. Metody kolichestvennogo analiza riskov investitsionnykh proektov [Methods of Quantitative Analysis of Investment Project Risks]. Planovik.Ru, available at: http://planovik.ru/invest/articles/3.htm

3. Trifonov Yu.V., Plekhanova A.F., Yurlov F.F. Vybor effektivnykh resheniy v ekonomike v usloviyakh neopredelennosti [Selecting Effective Solutions in Economics under Conditions of Uncertainty]. N. Novgorod, Izd-vo NNGU, 1998, 140 p.

4. Chetyrkin E.M. Finansovyy analiz proizvodstvennykh investitsiy [Financial Analysis of Production Investments]. Moscow, Delo, 1998, 256 p.

5. Damodaran A. Investitsionnaya otsenka [Investment Valuation]. Moscow, Al’pina Biznes Buks, 2008, 659 p.

6. Kurilova A.A., Polteva T.V. Uchet riska i neopredelennosti pri otsenke effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov [Taking Into Account Risk and Uncertainty when Assessing the Effectiveness of Investment Projects]. Karel’skiy nauchnyy zhurnal, 2016, no 4(17), pp. 181–184.

7. Rukovodstvo po effektivnosti investitsiy [Investment Performance Guide]. Moscow, Interekspress, YuNIDO (UNIDO), 1998, 387 p.

8. Metodicheskie rekomendatsii po otsenke effektivnosti investitsionnykh proektov [Methodological Recommendations for Assessing the Effectiveness of Investment Projects]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 421 p.

9. Sinyavskiy N. Otsenka biznesa: gipotezy, instrumentariy, prakticheskie resheniya v razlichnykh sferakh deyatel’nosti [Business Valuation: Hypotheses, Tools, Practical Solutions in Various Fields of Activity]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika, 2008, 240 p.

Organizational Mechanisms for Solving Cognitive Paradigms in Technical Sphere, or How Can we Overtake DARPA?

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.202.2025.18-29

The crisis of organizational technologies in Russian science and technology, accumulated over the post-Soviet period, was clearly manifested in the SVO conditions. Unacceptably slow and unsystematic increase in the production of new high-tech defence products has raised the question of the cost at which we will be winning the future war with NATO or their European or Asian counterparts, imposed on us (si vis pacem, para bellum). It became clear that the key to future victory is in organizational solution of cognitive paradigms in the technical sphere.

References:

1. Ageev A.I. Rol’ sanktsiy, konfliktov i spetsoperatsiy: razmyshleniya o budushchem. Chast’ 2 [The Role of Sanctions, Conflicts and Special Operations: Reflections on the Future. Part 2]. Nauchnyy vestnik oboronno-promyshlennogo kompleksa Rossii, 2024, no 1, pp. 33–42.

2. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Spetsial’naya voennaya operatsiya kak strategicheskaya tekhnologiya vybora budushchego Rossii i mira [Special Military Operation as a Strategic Technology for Choosing the Future of Russia and the World]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 5(191), pp. 6–21, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.191.2023.6-21

3. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Strategicheskaya predopredelennost’ spetsial’nykh voennykh operatsiy v mirovoy supersisteme [Strategic Predetermination of Special Military Operations in the World Supersystem]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 4(190), pp. 6–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.190.2023.6-19

4. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Metody mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-tekhnicheskoy razvedki po otkrytym istochnikam [Methods of International Scientific-technical Reconnaissance based on Open Sources]. Mikroekonomika, 2025, no 1, pp. 14–17, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/mic-1.120.2025.14-17

5. Makarov V.L., Ageev A.I., Zelenskiy V.A., Loginov E.L. Sistemnye osnovy resheniya upravlencheskikh zadach vzaimodeystviya fundamental’noy i prikladnoy nauki s proizvodstvennym sektorom kak osnovnoy faktor novoy industrializatsii Rossii [System Foundations of solving Managerial Problems of Interaction Between Fundamental and Applied science and Manufacturing sector as the Main Factor of Russia’s New Industrialization]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2013, vol. 15, no 2(110), pp. 108–117.

6. Ageev A.I., Bakhtizin A.R., Makarov V.L., Loginov E.L., Khabriev B.R. Ekonomicheskiy fundament pobedy: strategicheskiy prognoz ustoychivosti ekonomiki Rossii v usloviyakh sanktsionnykh atak [Economic Foundation of Victory: a Strategic Forecast for the Russian Economy Stability in the Face of Sanctions]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2023, vol. 25, no 3(189), pp. 6–15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-3.189.2023.6-15

7. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Opyt voenno-grazhdanskogo sliyaniya v SShA i Kitae: nuzhen novyy organizatsionno-strategicheskiy inzhiniring v rossiyskikh oboronnykh i grazhdanskikh otraslyakh [Experience of Military- civilian Merger in the USA and China: New Organizational and Strategic Engineering is Needed in the Russian Defence and Civilian Industries]. Mikroekonomika, 2024, no 4, pp. 5–17, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/mic-4.117.2024.5-17

Methodological Model for Studying the Spanish Political Mentality. Part 2

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.202.2025.38-49

Spanish political mentality is a historically determined, multidimensional and systemic result of a long multi-ethnic and transcivilizational process. To study it, a methodological concept of imprinting was used, which was firstly substantiated within the framework of the present study. The article formulates the concept of the imprinting-suggestion phenomenon, the basic structural elements of which are represented primarily by epochal political events, as well as great cultural figures and outstanding governors. Taking into account these invariant predictors, critical periods in the history of Spain that influenced the course of its political mentalization are discussed. Based on methodological potential of the imprinting concept, its root sources — romanization and christianization — are revealed. The article examines the evolution specifics of polymentality in Moorish Spain, emergence of Spanish Catholicism and significance of the Reconquista in forming the foundations of the Spanish mentality. These and other key moments in the history of the Kingdom of Spain from this perspective are still awaiting their researchers. The final section provides an analytical review of the philosophical and theological principles of the Spanish political mentality.

References:

[1-32] See in No. 3/2025. p. 21.

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37. Shayd Dzh. Religiya rimlyan [Religion of the Romans]. Moscow, 2006, p. 32.

38. Dzhons A.Χ. Gibel’ antichnogo mira [The Death of the Ancient World]. Rostov n/D, Feniks, 1997.

39. Ortega-i-Gasset Kh. Izbrannye trudy [Selected Works]. 2-e izd. Moscow, Ves’ mir, 2000, pp. 330, 331.

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41. Yakovleva L.E. Problema natsional’noy identichnosti v ispanskoy filosofii XX veka [The Problem of National Identity in Spanish Philosophy of the Twentieth Century], available at: https://conf.esp-centr.sfedu.ru/materials/995/yakovleva.pdf

42. Klaude D. Istoriya vestgotov [Geschichte der Westgoten]. Saint Petersburg, Evraziya, 2003.

43. Dzhon F. Mak-Artur. Tolkovanie knig Novogo Zaveta. 1-e Poslanie k Timofeyu [Interpretation of the Books of the New Testament. 1st Epistle to Timothy]. Moscow, Slavyanskoe Evangel’skoe Obshchestvo, 2002, p. 9.

44. Deko A. Apostol Pavel [Apostle Paul]. Moscow, Molodaya gvardiya, 2005, p. 56.

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Achilles, the Tortoise and Schrodinger’s Cat. Some Features of Modern Evolution of Developing Countries

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.202.2025.50-59

The author draws attention to the fact that many international organizations consider it necessary to abandon the term “developing countries.” Reason for this is because countries outside the developed world do not represent a homogeneous group. The number of former developing countries that managed to enter in the group of developed countries is extremely small. The article examines the development factors that contribute to such transition, as well as two approaches to sustainable development: resilience and sustainability. The author states that there is no rational recipe for national success, and successful development is more a matter of art than rational knowledge. He also examines six country cases — the most successful developing countries according to the World Bank. In the end, the author comes to conclusion that modern technological progress makes building a model of the developing world’s future very difficult.

References:

1. Time to stop referring to the “developing world”. World Bank Blogs, January 23, 2024, available at: https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/time-stopreferring-developing-world

2. Is the term ‘developing world’ outdated? World Economic Forum, Nov 19, 2015, available at: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2015/11/is-the-termdeveloping-world-outdated/

3. Developing country: an outdated term in The Lancet. The Lancet, Sept 14, 2019, available at: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)31098-0/fulltext

4. Oscar Abraham Raya López. How are countries classified according to their level of development? Mexican Center for International Relations, June 24, 2022, available at: https://cemeri.org/ru/enciclopedia/e-clasificacion-nivel-desarrollo-paises-fv

5. Spisok naimenee razvitykh stran [List of Least Developed Countries]. OON, available at: ht tps://www.un.org/ru/development/ldc/list.shtml

6. Top Five Fastest-Growing Economies in 2024. Euromonitor International, October 6, 2024, available at: https://www.euromonitor.com/article/top-fivefastest-growing-economies-in-2024#:~:text=Out%20of%20the%20world’s%2062,%2C%20Vietnam%2C%20Indonesia%20and%20China

7. Three hundred years of applied sustainability in forestry, available at: https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/bitstream/handle/20.500.11850/154087/1/eth-7348-01.pdf

8. The overall performance of all 193 UN Member States. SDR, available at: https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/rankings

9. The turbulent world of resilience: interpretations and themes for transdisciplinary dialogue. Springer Nature Link, available at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2358-0

10. ZOE, the Institute for Future-Fit Economies [Website]. ZOE, available at: https://zoe-institut.de/en/home-2/

11. The Economic Resilience Index, available at: https://zoe-institut.de/wpcontent/uploads/2023/09/Economic_Resilience_Index_Final-1.pdf

12. Knuth K. The term “resilience” is everywhere — but what does it really mean. Ensia, available at: https://ensia.com/articles/what-is-resilience/