Considering all the measures taken by central banks of the leading countries to overcome the global financial crisis of 2007–2009, one might have expected that economies would grow at a higher pace. However, their growth remains rather unstable. This puts the question of how modern economy retains the capability to adequately respond to applied measures of impact.
The issue of the connection of current macroeconomic policy measures and structural changes is being investigated. Approaches that focus on the behavior of macroaggregates, as a rule, do not take into account the structural and institutional characteristics of the economic system. These characteristics are now becoming relevant in the field of economic development. Macroeconomic policy is based on a transfer mechanism, which is a set of measures and instruments that affect economic dynamics. However, until now the transfer mechanism of macroeconomic policy has changed, without taking into account structural and institutional characteristics — the Keynesian prescriptions have been replaced by monetarist, “offer economics”, “real cycle theory”, and theoretical generalizations were the basis of the transfer mechanism. The modern economy is changing so rapidly that the fundamental generalizations lag behind the pace of these changes, which leads experts responsible for macroeconomic policy to develop measures according to the practical feasibility and vision of solving certain problems, sometimes based on a priori established connection of individual parameters, for example, the money supply and GDP, inflation and employment levels, or inflation and money supply, etc. Usually the presence of feedbacks is considered weakly, as well as does not subordinate the measures of the current policy of the country’s development strategy, since the strategic program is simply another set of tools that should lead to different results.
Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for 2018 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.
Military operations in the Syrian Arab Republic affect foreign investment in the country. Despite this, Russia continues to cooperate with Syria in the investment field. Judging by Syria’s internal potential, peculiarities of its geopolitical situation in the region, as well as international trends and strategies of Russia’s foreign policy, the Syrian Arab Republic maintains its relations with the Russian Federation within the framework of the forces center policy and against the background of the prestige policy. At the same time, towards Russia Syria pursues completely different foreign policy than in relation to other countries. Exploring investment activities in Syria and Russia’s participation in the Syrian economy through investments, the author draws up a conclusion that Russian enterprises’ entry into the Syrian market after the conflict stabilization should be based on the principles of leasing. The most interesting form of cooperation from the Russian point of view will be interaction in the mining industry (oil, phosphates) and agriculture.
Existing model of international economic integration faces a number of limitations impeding further development of globalization. Using the example of the US metallurgical industry, the article shows that globalization can cause negative consequences for the developed countries economies, including the erosion of national security. The work notes the presence of a discrepancy between the target and ideological purposes of the “Foreign Economic Strategy of the Russian Federation” and the changed external conditions for the national economy development. Normalization of the imports presence in the domestic market is a necessary step towards diversifying the economy and increasing non-commodity exports. In the new model of international trade, which is formed on the basis of China’s foreign economic relations, Russia may occupy a niche of infrastructure solutions supplier in the field of energy, technologies of natural resources extraction, as well as military equipment and weapons to ensure the sovereignty of countries that extract and export natural resources.
2000s and 2010s are usually called “transition period”. On the one hand, during this time we observe the strengthening of the international cooperation actively being started with reforms under the rules of the G20 as the response to the intensification of global financial system’s development internal contradictions and the emergence of global economic crisis. On the other hand, these years are characterized by an increased level of conflicts manifested in the vigorous and collective application of sanctions and the declaration of trade wars. The subject of the article is especially relevant for Russia having been already sanctioned for 5 years. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of sanctions on the target economy. The paper provides a brief description of the existing sanctions against Russia since 2014. The second part of research is devoted to the identification of conditions for the effectiveness of economic sanctions. The third section includes the analysis of the negative sanction effect’s reasons and evidence. Finally we provide arguments in favor of real and potential opportunities for Russia to obtain economic benefits from the sanctions. In 2014–2016 we observed the negative effect of economic sanctions expressed in the form of losses and lost profits and caused as logical consequence of Russian economy’s development features. There are preconditions for creating a positive effect from sanctions — an impulse that can bring Russian economic system to a qualitatively new stage of growth. These positive trends need to be developed and sustained by domestic government support.
The article discusses some aspects of the federal budget of the Russian Federation, which was adopted by the State Duma in November 2018. It is noted that parameters incorporated into the budget in conditions of economy stagnation are unlikely to stimulate growth.
Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for the first nine months of 2018 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.
The world economy is a dynamically developing system, where various processes continuously take place, being connected both with interaction and with opposition of the various participants’ interests in the context of globalization, regionalization, economic integration and competition. Today, under the effect of both objective and subjective factors, the environment itself has changed, the course of processes taking place there has changed. As a result, the world economy is undergoing complex transformations and humanity is going through a civilizational crisis. The world is entering a phase of turbulence, chaos, instability and uncertainty. No single country, including developed ones, can yet offer a way out of this phase. Due to disharmony in relationship between scientific-technological progress and spiritual development of mankind, the world is on the threshold of a global catastrophe. This situation has caused a complex problem that we plan to solve on the basis of a scientific approach. We believe that the main reason for violating the right course of events, processes and phenomena lies in the imperfect system of governing society, the state and the world development as a whole. The management system has left the natural path of development, has abandoned the canons of the Universe and the all-round laws of the Universe. Building on new knowledge, theories, concepts and technologies, it is necessary to create such a system of planning and management that will ensure safety and harmonious development of the system “nature – society – man”.
The study is devoted to comparing the characteristics of the macroeconomic dynamics of the US, Germany, China and Russia, with the goal of establishing not only differences and similar elements of this dynamics, but also identifying the most expedient ways to further implement the instruments of the macroeconomic policy pursued. Counteraction to the economic crisis presupposes institutional corrections, since the standard recipes of macroeconomic policy are weak in changing the situation, since the importance of, for example, financial institutions, the banking system, etc. However, the coherence of macroaggregates needs to be taken into account, moreover, it has its own peculiarities in each country, thus, the general methods of macroeconomic policy require detailed elaboration based on the development task and the current dynamics. The expediency of a moderately expansionary monetary policy for the Russian economy is shown, and the comparative and comparative method of analysis confirms that the USA and Russia demonstrate a similar dynamics of macroaggregates in general properties, Germany and China are also close to each other, although some parameters and connections are different. However, in the US and Russia (Fisher’s growth model), the decline in inflation has little effect on growth, in Germany and China, growth is accompanied by inflation (Schumpeter’s growth). The result of the comparative analysis using the matrix of pair correlations and obtained regressions should be used to correct macroeconomic policy measures in the countries examined. In addition, this comparison will prevent governments from mechanically copying macroeconomic instruments.