Investment Practices of Russia and Syria: Comparative Analysis

#1. Minds Confusion
Investment Practices of Russia and Syria: Comparative Analysis

Military operations in the Syrian Arab Republic affect foreign investment in the country. Despite this, Russia continues to cooperate with Syria in the investment field. Judging by Syria’s internal potential, peculiarities of its geopolitical situation in the region, as well as international trends and strategies of Russia’s foreign policy, the Syrian Arab Republic maintains its relations with the Russian Federation within the framework of the forces center policy and against the background of the prestige policy. At the same time, towards Russia Syria pursues completely different foreign policy than in relation to other countries. Exploring investment activities in Syria and Russia’s participation in the Syrian economy through investments, the author draws up a conclusion that Russian enterprises’ entry into the Syrian market after the conflict stabilization should be based on the principles of leasing. The most interesting form of cooperation from the Russian point of view will be interaction in the mining industry (oil, phosphates) and agriculture.

Russia’s Foreign Economic Strategy in the Context of a Changing Model of International Economic Integration

#1. Minds Confusion
Russia’s Foreign Economic Strategy in the Context of a Changing Model of International Economic Integration

Existing model of international economic integration faces a number of limitations impeding further development of globalization. Using the example of the US metallurgical industry, the article shows that globalization can cause negative consequences for the developed countries economies, including the erosion of national security. The work notes the presence of a discrepancy between the target and ideological purposes of the “Foreign Economic Strategy of the Russian Federation” and the changed external conditions for the national economy development. Normalization of the imports presence in the domestic market is a necessary step towards diversifying the economy and increasing non-commodity exports. In the new model of international trade, which is formed on the basis of China’s foreign economic relations, Russia may occupy a niche of infrastructure solutions supplier in the field of energy, technologies of natural resources extraction, as well as military equipment and weapons to ensure the sovereignty of countries that extract and export natural resources.

Economic Sanctions Against Russia: Damnation of Decrease or Springboard for Free Flight?

#8. Ideas Change the World
Economic Sanctions Against Russia: Damnation of Decrease or Springboard for Free Flight?

2000s and 2010s are usually called “transition period”. On the one hand, during this time we observe the strengthening of the international cooperation actively being started with reforms under the rules of the G20 as the response to the intensification of global financial system’s development internal contradictions and the emergence of global economic crisis. On the other hand, these years are characterized by an increased level of conflicts manifested in the vigorous and collective application of sanctions and the declaration of trade wars. The subject of the article is especially relevant for Russia having been already sanctioned for 5 years. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of sanctions on the target economy. The paper provides a brief description of the existing sanctions against Russia since 2014. The second part of research is devoted to the identification of conditions for the effectiveness of economic sanctions. The third section includes the analysis of the negative sanction effect’s reasons and evidence. Finally we provide arguments in favor of real and potential opportunities for Russia to obtain economic benefits from the sanctions. In 2014–2016 we observed the negative effect of economic sanctions expressed in the form of losses and lost profits and caused as logical consequence of Russian economy’s development features. There are preconditions for creating a positive effect from sanctions — an impulse that can bring Russian economic system to a qualitatively new stage of growth. These positive trends need to be developed and sustained by domestic government support.

Some Aspects of the New State Budget

#8. Ideas Change the World

The article discusses some aspects of the federal budget of the Russian Federation, which was adopted by the State Duma in November 2018. It is noted that parameters incorporated into the budget in conditions of economy stagnation are unlikely to stimulate growth.

The Ups and Downs of Macroeconomic Dynamics: will the Russian Economy Become the Leader of World Development?

#8. Ideas Change the World
The Ups and Downs of Macroeconomic Dynamics: will the Russian Economy Become the Leader of World Development?

Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for the first nine months of 2018 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.

Methodology System and Strategic Planning Logic

#8. Ideas Change the World
Methodology System and Strategic Planning Logic

The world economy is a dynamically developing system, where various processes continuously take place, being connected both with interaction and with opposition of the various participants’ interests in the context of globalization, regionalization, economic integration and competition. Today, under the effect of both objective and subjective factors, the environment itself has changed, the course of processes taking place there has changed. As a result, the world economy is undergoing complex transformations and humanity is going through a civilizational crisis. The world is entering a phase of turbulence, chaos, instability and uncertainty. No single country, including developed ones, can yet offer a way out of this phase. Due to disharmony in relationship between scientific-technological progress and spiritual development of mankind, the world is on the threshold of a global catastrophe. This situation has caused a complex problem that we plan to solve on the basis of a scientific approach. We believe that the main reason for violating the right course of events, processes and phenomena lies in the imperfect system of governing society, the state and the world development as a whole. The management system has left the natural path of development, has abandoned the canons of the Universe and the all-round laws of the Universe. Building on new knowledge, theories, concepts and technologies, it is necessary to create such a system of planning and management that will ensure safety and harmonious development of the system “nature – society – man”.

Comparative Analysis of Macroeconomic Dynamics of the Developed Countries: USA, Germany, China, Russia

#7. Connected Space
Comparative Analysis of Macroeconomic Dynamics of the Developed Countries: USA, Germany, China, Russia

The study is devoted to comparing the characteristics of the macroeconomic dynamics of the US, Germany, China and Russia, with the goal of establishing not only differences and similar elements of this dynamics, but also identifying the most expedient ways to further implement the instruments of the macroeconomic policy pursued. Counteraction to the economic crisis presupposes institutional corrections, since the standard recipes of macroeconomic policy are weak in changing the situation, since the importance of, for example, financial institutions, the banking system, etc. However, the coherence of macroaggregates needs to be taken into account, moreover, it has its own peculiarities in each country, thus, the general methods of macroeconomic policy require detailed elaboration based on the development task and the current dynamics. The expediency of a moderately expansionary monetary policy for the Russian economy is shown, and the comparative and comparative method of analysis confirms that the USA and Russia demonstrate a similar dynamics of macroaggregates in general properties, Germany and China are also close to each other, although some parameters and connections are different. However, in the US and Russia (Fisher’s growth model), the decline in inflation has little effect on growth, in Germany and China, growth is accompanied by inflation (Schumpeter’s growth). The result of the comparative analysis using the matrix of pair correlations and obtained regressions should be used to correct macroeconomic policy measures in the countries examined. In addition, this comparison will prevent governments from mechanically copying macroeconomic instruments.

New Strategy of Industrial Policy and Its Role in Modernization of the Russian Economy

#7. Connected Space
New Strategy of Industrial Policy and Its Role in Modernization of the Russian Economy

The article defines the essence of industrial police in the context of the main challenge — objective necessity of modernization of the Russian economy; special attention is given to three debatable aspects of elaboration of the new strategy of industrial police: defining its strategic goal, choice of strategic model of industrial development, defining the main directions of industrial policy. The key importance of the main statements of the Presidential Message to the Federal Assembly for handling these problems is underlined.

“Long Waves” in the Economy and the RF Currency Market

#7. Connected Space
“Long Waves” in the Economy and the RF Currency Market

The article dwells on actual problems — increase in the volatility of the ruble exchange rate and its depreciation in 2018. At the same time, it is assumed that dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in general reflects the underlying economic processes (including abroad). Before the economic crisis that began in 2008, the ruble exchange rate for many years was mainly strengthening, and its volatility was relatively low. The situation has changed because the economies of a number of countries (in particular, Russia) have entered into a long, difficult period. So, for about a decade, the Russian economy has been showing slow growth. At the same time, the ruble exchange rate tends to depreciate. This allows the authors to assume that dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, which passed from a long upward to a downward stage about ten years ago, may be associated with a similar transition of the economy of Russia and some other countries to a downward stage (in N.D. Kondratieff terminology). The article analyzes a number of approaches to the problems of “long waves” in the economy and a conclusion is drawn up on the necessity to develop the RF monetary strategy (taking into account long-term macroeconomic processes).

Scenarios for the Russian Economy: External Constraints and Internal Requirements for a New Contract Between Business and Government (Project Proposal for the Business Elite)

#6. For the High Norm
Scenarios for the Russian Economy: External Constraints and Internal Requirements for a New Contract Between Business and Government (Project Proposal for the Business Elite)

By the beginning of autumn 2018, the Russian government and business have fixed the status quo — any change in the model (including the contract between the government and big business, concluded 15-20 years ago as a result of “equidistant oligarchs”) is out of question. In business logic, the authority (arbitrator) does not have the right to require too much (compliance with the code of a builder, if not of communism, then of socially acceptable capitalism) or to play along with its own adherents (give contracts to state companies, redistribute assets, etc.). Although in fact this happens “sometimes and somewhere in our country” (in state-owned companies and the public sector), but is considered an exception to the rule of “sterile capitalism”: business on its own (“pay taxes and sleep well”). Analyzing historical options of combining contracts with the people and the elite: in Catherine’s and Peter’s periods, the authors present possible options for the modern combination of contracts between the government and business, as well as with the population: the current neoliberal course, the course towards a social market economy and a forced tough (mobilization) course.