DOI: 10.33917/mic-2.103.2022.5-38

Monetary policy is the most important instrument of economic growth policy, but the influence of any instrument may weaken or strengthen over time. We will designate this state as the cumulative effect of monetary policy. The purpose of the study is to determine the cumulative effect of monetary policy, with the identification of the effectiveness of its measures in ensuring the growth of the Russian economy. The methodology of the study consists of monetary theory, structural analysis of the money supply, the principle of «goals-tools» of economic policy and correlation and regression analysis, which allow to identify the presence of the cumulative effect of monetary policy, to determine its impact on relevant macroeconomic goals: GDP growth and inflation.

The result of the study is the application of the introduced indicators of the sensitivity of macro-policy goals to monetary policy instruments, representing a picture of the weakening of the influence of monetary policy on the growth of the Russian economy. The increasing monetization was accompanied, in particular, by a decrease in the growth rate of the Russian economy, the unfolding of a recession, the consequences of which affect the dynamics of economic development, while maintaining a tight monetary policy option – with an increase in the key interest rate. The structural analysis of the money supply for the M2 aggregate made it possible to identify those components that, with an increase, slow down growth and reduce inflation, as well as to determine the closeness of the relationship of the interest rate with the changing components of the money supply. The assessment of the cumulative effect of monetary policy on two goals of macroeconomic development – growth and inflation, and two monetary policy instruments – the M2 money supply and the key interest rate, confirmed the existence of a negative cumulative effect of the policy for the growth goal and a positive cumulative effect on the inflation rate. For two purposes at once, the positive cumulative effect of monetary policy is confirmed only for the period 2016-2018 in the interval 2001-2020. Thus, monetary policy, firstly, ensured the containment of inflation out of connection with growth, and secondly, provided different cumulative effects for different purposes – due to the different sensitivity of the target to the instruments.

The prospect of the study is seen in the creation of some kind of aggregated indicator that would allow taking into account the overall impact on the dynamics of the entire set of monetary policy measures, and not separately by goals and instruments, as presented in this study.

References:

1.       Glazyev S.Yu. A leap into the future. Russia in new technological and world economic structures. Moscow: Knizhny Mir, 2018. 768 p. (In Russ.).

2.      Glazyev S.Yu. Lessons of the next Russian revolution: the collapse of a liberal utopia and a chance for an «economic miracle». Moscow: Publishing House «Ekonomicheskaya Gazeta», 2011. 576 p. (In Russ.).

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.89.2019.51-57

The article analyzes the Russian system of accounting for the decommissioning of oil fields, its compliance with IFRS standards, defines the features of financial accounting for decommissioning, proposes approaches to measuring the reserves for decommissioning of oil fields and criteria for their evaluation, provides an example of calculating the reserves for decommissioning.

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.169.2020.50-54

The global economy, including the eurozone, experienced a shock in 2008. As one of the consequences, central banks of the largest economies in the world, in order to support economic activity, reduced interest rates on loans. Although 11 years have passed, in the eurozone lending rates still remain extremely low. This indicates that the monetary union has not yet recovered from the post-crisis state. In fact, more and more probable is becoming a recently inconceivable scenario that the eurozone for a long time will get into the era of negative interest rates.

The article discusses some aspects of the federal budget of the Russian Federation, which was adopted by the State Duma in November 2018. It is noted that parameters incorporated into the budget in conditions of economy stagnation are unlikely to stimulate growth.

The study is devoted to comparing the characteristics of the macroeconomic dynamics of the US, Germany, China and Russia, with the goal of establishing not only differences and similar elements of this dynamics, but also identifying the most expedient ways to further implement the instruments of the macroeconomic policy pursued. Counteraction to the economic crisis presupposes institutional corrections, since the standard recipes of macroeconomic policy are weak in changing the situation, since the importance of, for example, financial institutions, the banking system, etc. However, the coherence of macroaggregates needs to be taken into account, moreover, it has its own peculiarities in each country, thus, the general methods of macroeconomic policy require detailed elaboration based on the development task and the current dynamics. The expediency of a moderately expansionary monetary policy for the Russian economy is shown, and the comparative and comparative method of analysis confirms that the USA and Russia demonstrate a similar dynamics of macroaggregates in general properties, Germany and China are also close to each other, although some parameters and connections are different. However, in the US and Russia (Fisher’s growth model), the decline in inflation has little effect on growth, in Germany and China, growth is accompanied by inflation (Schumpeter’s growth). The result of the comparative analysis using the matrix of pair correlations and obtained regressions should be used to correct macroeconomic policy measures in the countries examined. In addition, this comparison will prevent governments from mechanically copying macroeconomic instruments.

The article examines the macroeconomic results of 2017 and provides an analysis of problems related to overcoming risks and threats that hamper the acceleration of the development of various spheres of the economy. Comparisons are given of trends by the development of the Russian and world economies on the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP) and other macroeconomic indicators. The forecasts of macroeconomic indicators for 2018–2019 are given.

In this article long-term trends of the energy market are viewed not from the point of view of supply and demand balance, as it is usually done, but exclusively analyzing quotations. Particular attention is paid to coal prices, which have been traced since 1834. The main conclusion is that there isn’t any shortage of raw materials on the planet, and the tendency of refusing mineral fuel in favor of renewable sources, if it is manifested in quotations — it will happen only in several decades. Much more important for price dynamics are big cycles of the business situation, on the basis of which a long-term forecast is made.

One can long list problems faced by our economy after the economic reforms onset. But the most serious of them are: extremely low rates of economic growth and resource degradation of the economy, threatening the very existence of our country. Scientists, experts and politicians bring a lot of reasons of this and offer a variety of different methods and ways to remedy the situation. But it is extremely important to determine the main cause underlying these problems, because without its elimination it is impossible in principle to resolve them and all the measures taken will be ineffective or useless. That is, we are talking about the “key link”, pulling which one can pull out the whole chain of economic problems of our country. Publications and various speeches most often cite the bad investment climate or the practical unavailability of long-term and cheap loans as the main reason. But is it really so?

The article dwells on inflation processes in Russia. The main factors, which have significantly affected it, are identified and analyzed. The factors themselves are considered from monetary and non-monetary points of view. Particular attention is paid to non-monetary factors of inflation being its main source.

The lion’s share of credits allocated by banks to the population, is aimed at purchasing imported products and at stimulating economic growth of strategic competitors.