Influence of Monetary Policy on Technological Development of the Economy in a Long-Term Aspect

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.171.2020.136-143

Monetary policy currently pursued by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is a reflection of external market conditions. Regulatory approaches should, in particular, help reduce the dependence of monetary policy on external factors — such as oil prices, foreign loans, access to foreign markets, etc. This is not about completely isolating the monetary sphere of the Russian Federation from parameters and the external environment. It is required to refuse close, automatic communication with the given parameters. It is necessary to increase the stability of the monetary system of the Russian Federation and the economy as a whole in relation to external shocks. This can be done through more active use of a wide range of tools available to the regulator. These include monetary and regulatory mechanisms (interest rates, reserve requirements, foreign exchange positions, etc.), gold reserves, verbal interventions, etc., which can have a stimulating effect on economic growth. The high volatility of the ruble now observed makes it extremely difficult for enterprises to plan and forecast, thereby making it impossible for the normal course of investment processes and expanded reproduction. In order to use monetary mechanisms to stimulate economic growth and eliminate the negative effects of current monetary policy (in particular, implemented since autumn 2014), a departure from inflation targeting and free floating of the ruble exchange rate is necessary. At the same time, it is obviously necessary to abandon many components or closely related elements (for example, “monetary contraction”). In addition, steps will be needed to stabilize the foreign exchange market, which would have positive effects (falling volatility, lower inflation, etc.). Under current conditions, with limited access to external financial resources, it is important to use mechanisms  for generating financial flows based on internal sources. In other words, the monetary base should be formed due to internal factors, and not depend on the dynamics of energy prices. In previous years, the main emphasis in the Russian economy was placed on the external sphere as a source of growth financing. Restricting access to external cheap financial resources (due to low oil prices, sanctions, etc.), as well as continuing geopolitical tensions with regard to Russia, reduce the possibilities for implementing longterm investment projects in the economy. This increases the relevance of national mechanisms and sources of formation of the resource base (including long) necessary to refinance previously taken loans, as well as to implement structural changes in the Russian economy.

Contemporary Approaches to Economic Stimulation Using Financial Instruments

DOI: 10.33917/es-8.166.2019.24-29

The Russian economy needs in adequate financial policy in the environment when other countries use actively financial stimulation measures, among which are protectionist measures, aimed at the growth of activity and defend of national economy. Contemporary financial protectionist measures often are not subject of international conventions that increase international trade and capital flow transparency. Countries use non-market mechanisms to support their national business in the competitive environment. Such mechanisms entail risks and opportunities for countries, as well as for business (large business in the first place). It’s necessary for Russian regulators to consider thoroughly approaches of other countries and broaden instruments they use

Actual Issues of Economic Policy in the European Union

DOI: 10.33917/es-8.166.2019.58-65

Today, the European Union (EU) is facing many challenges in the economic and financial sphere. Europeans are becoming less gullible with EU institutions and less tolerant of supranational interference in domestic politics. As a result, the process of European integration is gradually being modified. It was assumed that the process of economic integration, making Europeans more interdependent, should also lead to cultural assimilation and deeper political integration. Was the project too ambitious, given that Europeans are sufficiently heterogeneous in their economic interests, beliefs and sociocultural values to form a successful political union? Or are current difficulties a consequence of the inefficiency of supranational institutions? And how has the process of European economic integration affected cultural assimilation? All of these issues are becoming increasingly relevant as European integration develops

Where are You Going, Russia?

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.163.2019.58-69

To answer the question “Whither goest thou, Russia?”, the authors analyzed the period of the neoliberal reformation in the social and economic aspects. They summed up the political confrontation that had taken place in the “tumultuous” 1990s and identified the main trends towards the integral development of the Russian Federation for the near to medium terms. A situation that first occurred in the country, when the systems scientific and mental approaches are not in the binary opposition, but they are interacting research technologies, holds out hope for a success in studying the complicated actors of social life. In the authors’ opinion, for Russia’s successful development one can need a sovereignty of the State and society, to support creative directions in the intellectual sphere, to return the masses to active politics and to restore a direct and honest dialogue between the Government and civil society, otherwise there would be no way to save a considerable stratum of the population from a metacognitive bias with regard to their hope for a social and just transformation of society

How to Respond to Strategic Challenges: on the Agenda of Mobilization

#3. For Nothing, or an Invisible Threat
How to Respond to Strategic Challenges: on the Agenda of Mobilization

On March 1, 2018 President of Russia V.V. Putin in his annual address to the Federal Assembly said: “To move forward, to develop dynamically we must expand the space of freedom, strengthen the institutions of democracy, local government, structures of the civil society, courts and be a country open to the world”. However, Russia’s experience of the last quarter of the century shows that in fact, having opened to the world and strengthening democracy, we have only lost resources, dispersed and lost forces and almost lost “the will for daring labor”. The poor people are far away from daring work, they hardly survive with pasta and potatoes, the rich are bogged down in hedonism and consider “this country” only as a source of superprofits, and the power is wrapping the absence of a real working strategy and its own political will in beautiful verbal covers speaking about democracy, a free market and endless long-term and medium-term strategies and programs that have never been implemented. To practice the strategy of opening to the world, when the United States have already declared to all, in point of fact, a trade war, to put it mildly, is short-sighted. Yet no country has succeeded in creating or reviving industry without protecting its own producer. Is a new industrialization possible in such conditions and who can and should become its driving force?

The Problem of Organizing Economic Growth: Divergence of Views

#1. Long-Lasting Choice
The Problem of Organizing Economic Growth: Divergence of Views

The subject of the study was the problem of elaborating the economic growth policy in Russia. The economy’s exit from recession requires justification of government policy measures contributing not only to overcome the crisis, but also to bring the economy to a path of sustainable economic growth at a given rate. The article deals with positions of economists, representing two major camps in their views on the economic policy of growth — expansionists and restrictionists. The first are in favor of active stimulation of the economy by means of budgetary and monetary policy, while the latter profess policy of cutting expenditures and carrying out individual reforms which, in their view, will improve the quality of economy functioning (judicial reform, privatization, etc.). Applying comparative analysis, based on the facts of economic growth and the crisis in Russia, the author substantiates the necessity of forming a new model of growth for our country, indicates strategic directions of such policy and presents scientific arguments that confirm this choice. For example, it is shown that for promoting investment in the first phase of the exit from recession it is necessary not only to build-up the rate of investment, but to stimulate aggregate consumption and to restore the level of citizens’ incomes. The existing choice between expansion and restriction as types of policy is not so unequivocal, because there are serious constraints on monetary expansion, and to consider this kind of policy in Russia apart from other systemic effects that should be commensurate with this policy model while implementing it, is inappropriate. Economic policy of a new growth should be based on the presence of feedback and influences in the economic system and should correctly evaluate the current status against established strategic guidelines.

Lessons of Devaluation

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
Lessons of Devaluation

The article shows the consequences of the RF Central Bank current monetary policy, analyzes its theoretical prerequisites and the results of its application in practice. In particular, the authors consider the differences between the inflation targeting monetary policy, which is carried out in Russia, and the experience of its application in the EU and the USA. Particular attention is paid to the Central Bank activities during devaluation in 2014 – 2015, immediate consequences for the various sectors of the Russian economy of the measures taken are analyzed in detail. The authors also propose fundamentally different approach to pursuing this policy, necessary to overcome negative results of the previous actions of the Bank of Russia. These steps mentioned in the article imply introduction of a new emission model, transformation of the Russian ruble in the world currency, increasing stability of its exchange rate.

Monetary Policy as National Security Factor

#4. The Square of Transformation
Monetary Policy as National Security Factor

The article presents new approaches to foreign exchange and monetary policy required for progressive changes in the economy. It examines the features of the foreign exchange market formation in terms of exchange rate volatility, ruble depreciation, interest rate instability. The paper analyses advantages and disadvantages of weak and strong ruble, both in terms of the Russian economy development and in geo-economic context.

Oil Prices Forecast for the Period from May 2014 to December 2015

#3. Countdown
Oil Prices Forecast for the Period from May 2014 to December 2015

Oil prices forecast for the period from May 2014 to December 2015, prepared by the Institute of Energy Strategy in collaboration with the Institute for Economic Strategies based on neural model taking into account the experience of the world oil market functioning during the last decades.

The Second Wave of 2012 – 2013 crisis, or System errors in Macroeconomic Policy of Ukraine and Russia

#8. The Repertoire of Domination
The Second Wave of 2012 – 2013 crisis, or System errors in Macroeconomic Policy of Ukraine and Russia

The economic crisis of 2009 – 2014 in Russia and Ukraine is not a result of the global financial crisis impact. The continuing deterioration of the Ukraine and Russia’s economies is caused primarily by inadequate macroeconomic policy, which cannot be optimal due to institutional character of its origin.