The Problem of Organizing Economic Growth: Divergence of Views

#1. Long-Lasting Choice
The Problem of Organizing Economic Growth: Divergence of Views

The subject of the study was the problem of elaborating the economic growth policy in Russia. The economy’s exit from recession requires justification of government policy measures contributing not only to overcome the crisis, but also to bring the economy to a path of sustainable economic growth at a given rate. The article deals with positions of economists, representing two major camps in their views on the economic policy of growth — expansionists and restrictionists. The first are in favor of active stimulation of the economy by means of budgetary and monetary policy, while the latter profess policy of cutting expenditures and carrying out individual reforms which, in their view, will improve the quality of economy functioning (judicial reform, privatization, etc.). Applying comparative analysis, based on the facts of economic growth and the crisis in Russia, the author substantiates the necessity of forming a new model of growth for our country, indicates strategic directions of such policy and presents scientific arguments that confirm this choice. For example, it is shown that for promoting investment in the first phase of the exit from recession it is necessary not only to build-up the rate of investment, but to stimulate aggregate consumption and to restore the level of citizens’ incomes. The existing choice between expansion and restriction as types of policy is not so unequivocal, because there are serious constraints on monetary expansion, and to consider this kind of policy in Russia apart from other systemic effects that should be commensurate with this policy model while implementing it, is inappropriate. Economic policy of a new growth should be based on the presence of feedback and influences in the economic system and should correctly evaluate the current status against established strategic guidelines.

Lessons of Devaluation

#5. To Understand. To Prevent. To Overcome
Lessons of Devaluation

The article shows the consequences of the RF Central Bank current monetary policy, analyzes its theoretical prerequisites and the results of its application in practice. In particular, the authors consider the differences between the inflation targeting monetary policy, which is carried out in Russia, and the experience of its application in the EU and the USA. Particular attention is paid to the Central Bank activities during devaluation in 2014 – 2015, immediate consequences for the various sectors of the Russian economy of the measures taken are analyzed in detail. The authors also propose fundamentally different approach to pursuing this policy, necessary to overcome negative results of the previous actions of the Bank of Russia. These steps mentioned in the article imply introduction of a new emission model, transformation of the Russian ruble in the world currency, increasing stability of its exchange rate.

Monetary Policy as National Security Factor

#4. The Square of Transformation
Monetary Policy as National Security Factor

The article presents new approaches to foreign exchange and monetary policy required for progressive changes in the economy. It examines the features of the foreign exchange market formation in terms of exchange rate volatility, ruble depreciation, interest rate instability. The paper analyses advantages and disadvantages of weak and strong ruble, both in terms of the Russian economy development and in geo-economic context.

Oil Prices Forecast for the Period from May 2014 to December 2015

#3. Countdown
Oil Prices Forecast for the Period from May 2014 to December 2015

Oil prices forecast for the period from May 2014 to December 2015, prepared by the Institute of Energy Strategy in collaboration with the Institute for Economic Strategies based on neural model taking into account the experience of the world oil market functioning during the last decades.

The Second Wave of 2012 – 2013 crisis, or System errors in Macroeconomic Policy of Ukraine and Russia

#8. The Repertoire of Domination
The Second Wave of 2012 – 2013 crisis, or System errors in Macroeconomic Policy of Ukraine and Russia

The economic crisis of 2009 – 2014 in Russia and Ukraine is not a result of the global financial crisis impact. The continuing deterioration of the Ukraine and Russia’s economies is caused primarily by inadequate macroeconomic policy, which cannot be optimal due to institutional character of its origin.

The Second Wave of 2012 – 2013 Crisis, or System Errors in Macroeconomic Policy of Ukraine and Russia

#7. Pandora’s Deceit
The Second Wave of 2012 – 2013 Crisis, or System Errors in Macroeconomic Policy of Ukraine and Russia

The economic crisis of 2009 – 2014 in Russia and Ukraine is not a result of the global financial crisis impact. The continuing deterioration of the Ukraine and Russia’s economies is caused primarily by inadequate macroeconomic policy, which cannot be optimal due to institutional character of its origin.

Forming Current Macroeconomic Policies Subject to Expectations (by the Example of the U.S. Federal Reserve System)

#2. The Ice Age

The crisis has shown that government together with the central bank can secure financial market stabilization by allocating additional funds to credit institutions for increasing risk reserves and mitigating effects of “toxic” assets accumulation.