New Model of the Russian Economy Management in the Context of Hybrid Risks and Threats
DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.6-19
The article examines the problems of transforming the system for economic management of the Russian Federation, which could make it function in conditions of hybrid risks and critical threats. A set of measures for transforming management systems is structured, a number of functional stages is identified. The article substantiates the need to develop both general management and specific technical measures aimed at ensuring that the controlled contour of the system of state and corporate management centers within the resource supply infrastructure should be prepared for these types of risks and threats. The author concludes that the most appropriate management tool is adoption of a digital “twin” model of an economic entity (organizational agent). Obtained results will enable authorities to address organizational challenges in the event of the “drop-out of control centers at various levels” in order to operate with industry (regional) control centers and to work in a dialogue mode with structures of the Russian Federation Government and infrastructure organizations.
References:
1. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. SShA, Kitay, Rossiya: konfliktnye uyazvimosti v usloviyakh tranzita k novoy geostrategicheskoy paradigm [USA, China, Russia: Conflict Vulnerabilities in the Context of Transition to a New Geostrategic Paradigm]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2024, vol. 26, no 6(198), pp. 16–25, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.198.2024.16-25
2. Ageev A.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Ustoychivost’ ekonomicheskoy supersistemy Rossii i Belorussii v usloviyakh yadernoy ataki [Stability of the Economic Supersystem of Russia and Belarus in the Event of a Nuclear Attack]. Mikroekonomika, 2025, no 2, pp. 5–13. DOI: 10.33917/mic-2.121.2025. 5-13.
3. Perevooruzhenie Evropy [Rearmament of Europe]. Livejournal, 2025, 7 marta, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/802118.html
4. Pavel Shpidel’: Raskhody federal’nogo byudzheta Rossii [Expenditures of the Federal Budget of Russia]. Dzen, 2024, 1 oktyabrya, available at: https://dzen.ru/a/ZvwlBD2apwzl2Nap
5. Byudzhet Rossii [Budget of Russia]. TADVISER, 2025, 22 yanvarya, available at: https://www.tadviser.ru/index.php/Статья:Бюджет_России
6. Kak izmenyatsya gosudarstvennye raskhody v Rossii v 2025? [How will Government Spending Change in Russia in 2025?]. Livejournal, 2024, 3 oktyabrya, available at: https://spydell.livejournal.com/789883.html
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9. Ivanter V.V., Budanov I.A., Korovkin A.G., Sutyagin V.S. Prikladnoe prognozirovanie natsional’noy ekonomiki: Ucheb. posobie dlya vuzov. Gl. 29. Voenno-promyshlennyy kompleks [Applied Forecasting of the National Economy: Textbook for Universities. Chapter 29. Military-Industrial Complex]. Moscow, Ekonomist, 2007, 896 p. P. 711–736, available at: https://ecfor.ru/wp-content/uploads/books/uch/29.pdf
Forming a New System of Financial Settlements between Russia and the Global South Countries
DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.20-27
The article examines transformation of the international financial settlement system, catalyzed by anti-Russian sanctions. Formation of a new global financial system is facing resistance from the beneficiaries of the existing world order, but there are ways to bypass the barriers being erected. Fur ther development will require complete replacement of Western financial instruments and institutions in the markets and jurisdictions of non-Western countries.
References:
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4. Dolya dollara i evro pri raschetakh za rossiyskiy eksport upala nizhe 20% [The Share of the Dollar and Euro in Settlements for Russian Exports Fell Below 20%]. RBK, 2024, 17 avgusta, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/finances/17/08/2024/66bf2e639a7947944b318a70
5. Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities, available at: https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
6. Kakie strany vladeyut bol’shey chast’yu dolga SShA? [Which Countries Own the Most US Debt?]. USAFacts, 2024, 1 avgusta, available at: https://usafacts.org/articles/which-countries-own-the-most-us-debt/
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11. Babaev K.V., Sergienko E.E., Van Tszinvey, Li Fen, Sazonov S.L. Internatsionalizatsiya yuanya v ramkakh initsiativy “Poyas i Put’” [Internationalization of the Yuan within the Framework of the Belt and Road Initiative]. ETAP: Ekonomicheskaya Teoriya, Analiz, Praktika, 2024, no 1, pp. 75–90.
12. The First China-UAE Gas Deal in Yuan: A New Blow to Dollar Dominance. The Cradle. 2023. April 6, available at: https://thecradle.co/articles/the-firstchina-uae-gas-deal-in-yuan-a-new-blow-to-dollar-dominance
13. Reuters: neftyanye sdelki Rossii s Indiey podryvayut gospodstvo dollara [Reuters: Russia’s Oil Deals with India Undermine the Dollar’s Dominance]. TASS, 2023, 8 marta, available at: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/17219603?utm_source=rfinance
14. Chast’ krupnykh bankov Kitaya perestala prinimat’ platezhi iz Rossii [Some Major Chinese Banks Have Stopped Accepting Payments from Russia]. RBK, 2024, 17 aprelya, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/business/17/04/2024/661f4a3c9a7947ce48d663ca
Some Theoretical Approaches and Forecasts in the Sphere of Foreign Direct Investment
DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.28-33
In 2024, the Nobel Prize was awarded to American economists Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson (new institutional economics). The article contains a critical analysis of theoretical approaches and anti-Russian statements of the new Nobel laureates. Contrary to their optimistic expectations, the socio-economic development of a number of A frican countries after the “Arab Spring” is characterized by acute problems and economic indicators of the leading countries of “democratic” Europe remain relatively weak for a long period of time. The ar ticle also examines current trends and forecasts in foreign direct investments (FDI). High levels of uncer tainty in the global economy and new tariffs imposed by the United States in 2025 are creating a lot of new risks for global value chains and foreign direct investments. In these circumstances, the author suggests recalling some of the ideas of past Nobel laureates Paul Krugman, Simon Kuznets, V.V. Leontief and Jan Tinbergen on the role of economic, industrial and migration policies, as well as policy in the sphere of foreign direct investments and economic integration. The article also offers some recommendations for economic policy in Russia.
References:
1. Adzhemoglu S., Robinson D. Pochemu odni strany bogatye, a drugie bednye. Proiskhozhdenie vlasti, protsvetaniya i nishchety [Why Nations Fail. The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty]. Moscow, AST, 2024, 668 p.
2. The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024: Press Release. The Nobel Prize, available at: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2024/press-release/
3. Biggest Support Package to Ukraine So Far Increases Swedish Support to SEK 29.5 Billion for 2025. Government Offices of Sweden, available at: https://www.government.se/press-releases/2025/03/biggest-support-package-to-ukraine-so-far-increases-swedish-support-to-sek-29.5-billion-for-2025
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Prospects for Integrating Stock Markets of the EAEU Countries in the Context of the Digital Economy Development
DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.34-39
The article identifies characteristics and development trends of the stock markets of the EAEU member countries in the context of the digital economy’s development. It outlines the main challenges facing the development of the stock markets of the EAEU countries. The author substantiates the importance of harmonizing national legislation and creating a common digital architecture to improve the efficiency of risk management and to strengthen integration of the stock markets of the EAEU member countries. It is concluded that digital transformation is a key factor in overcoming differences in the development of stock markets in the EAEU countries.
References:
1. Terenichenko A.A. Sravnitel’no-pravovoy analiz razvitiya rynka tsennykh bumag stran — uchastnits Evraziyskogo ekonomicheskogo soyuza [Comparative Legal Analysis of the Development of the Securities Market of the Countries Participating in the Eurasian Economic Union]. Agrarnoe i zemel’noe pravo, 2017, no 3(147), pp. 42–46.
2. Kulakova E.V. Vozmozhnosti i perspektivy integratsii EAES v finansovoy sfere [Opportunities and Prospects for Integration of the EAEU in the Financial Sector]. Mir novoy ekonomiki, 2017, no 2, pp. 38–45.
3. Shvaygert D.V. Institutsional’noe razvitie integratsii infrastrukturnykh organizatsiy fondovykh rynkov SNG i EAES [Institutional Development of Integration of Infrastructure Organizations of Stock Markets of the CIS and the EAEU]. Human Progress, 2015, vol. 1, no 4, pp. 60–79.
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7. Prilozhenie N 1 k Protokolu po finansovym uslugam [Appendix No. 1 to the Protocol on Financial Services]. Konsul’tant, available at: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_163855/823373b5e42b9e5d815887166f0f639070b50f13/#dst103974
8. Kontseptsiya formirovaniya obshchego finansovogo rynka EAES [The Concept of Forming a Common Financial Market of the EAEU]. EEK, available at: https://eec.eaeunion.org/comission/department/dofp/conception.php
9. Rasporyazhenie Soveta Evraziyskoy ekonomicheskoy komissii ot 23 noyabrya 2020 g. N 27 “O plane meropriyatiy po garmonizatsii zakonodatel’stva gosudarstv — chlenov Evraziyskogo ekonomicheskogo soyuza v sfere finansovogo rynka” [Order of the Council of the Eurasian Economic Commission of November 23, 2020 No. 27 “On the Action Plan for the Harmonization of the Legislation of the Member States of the Eurasian Economic Union in the Financial Market”]. EEK, available at: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_371826/1c69fbe37d5087eb211e769dda5826d3b35fba97/
On the Impact of the Key Rate and the Rouble Exchange Rate on Inflation
DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.40-43
From mid-2023 inflation began to rise sharply and was remaining high for a long time despite the Central Bank raising its key rate to a record high. The article examines the impact of key rate and rouble exchange rate on consumer price changes. It is concluded that in Russia the rouble exchange rate plays a more significant role in inflation dynamics than the key rate.
References:
1. Shirov A.A., Gusev M.S., Nekrasov F.O. Priroda inflyatsii v sovremennoy rossiyskoy ekonomike i ee vliyanie na ekonomicheskiy rost [The Nature of Inflation in the Modern Russian Economy and its Impact on Economic Growth]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2025, no 2, pp. 5–19.
2. Opros: pochti 60% rossiyan ne imeyut sberezheniy [Poll: Almost 60% of Russians have no Savings]. TASS, 2019, 16 sentyabrya, available at: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/6889653
3. Bol’shinstvo rossiyan okazalis’ bez sberezheniy v krizis [Most Russians Found Themselves without Savings During the Crisis]. RBK, 2020, 31 marta, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/31/03/2020/5e7dd7c59a7947c7f63c1e66
4. Vakhitova G. Bolee poloviny rossiyskikh grazhdan ne imeyut sberezheniy [More than Half of Russian Citizens have no Savings]. Rossiyskaya gazeta, 2023, 16 yanvarya, available at: https://rg.ru/2023/01/16/suhoj-ostatok.html
5. Ershov M.V. Rossiyskaya ekonomika v usloviyakh novykh sanktsionnykh vyzovov [Russian Economy in the Context of New Sanction Challenges]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2022, no 12, pp. 5–23.
6. Trinadtsat’ tezisov ob ekonomike. Etyud 11. Inflyatsiya: kratkiy obzor [Thirteen Theses on Economics. Study 11. Inflation: A Brief Overview]. Tsentr makroekonomicheskogo analiza i kratkosrochnogo prognozirovaniya, 2025, 14 iyulya, available at: http://www.forecast.ru/
7. O chem govoryat trendy: Makroekonomika i rynki [What the Trends Say: Macroeconomics and Markets]. Bank Rossii, 2025, no 1(76), available at: https://cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/55064/bulletin_25-01.pdf
Economic Development of Russia: Challenges, Historical Traditions and Strategies
DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.44-51
The article examines options for recovery of the Russian economy, its civilizational role in relation to continuit y of the advanced thought and Russian society’s traditions, associated with moral purification, freedom and social justice, universally significant spiritual values, ideals of humanism and patriotism, characteristic of Russian economic life. It is proposed to consider consumer-value relations as an alternative paradigm of socio-economic development, which may well meet the requirements of a sovereign route, focusing on spiritual-moral foundations and values. The author notes that consumervalue relations take into account a historic unique character of the national economic system. Proposed methodological approach can serve as a starting point for the national liberation of modern Russia both from the shackles of capitalist orders and from injustice towards a human being.
References:
1. Dementyev V.V., Scherbakov A.P. Profit and Economic Growth. Terra economicus, 2017, vol. 15, no 3, pp. 75–91.
2. Makarova I.V. Sistema prioritetov razvitiya Rossii [The System of Priorities for the Development of Russia]. Nauchno-analiticheskiy zhurnal “Aktual’nye problemy sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii”, 2014, no 1, pp. 57–60.
3. Dubrovskiy A.V. Razmyshleniya o strukturno-tekhnologicheskikh preobrazovaniyakh i liberal’nykh al’ternativakh ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii [Reflections on Structural and Technological Transformations and Liberal Alternatives for Economic Development in Russia]. Ekonomika ustoychivogo razvitiya, 2020, no 2(42), pp. 82–87.
4. Lenchuk E.B., Filatov V.I. Rossiyskaya ekonomika: poisk effektivnoy strategii [Russian Economy: Search for an Effective Strategy]. Mir novoy ekonomiki, 2018, pp. 6–21.
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7. Shcherbakov V.N., Dubrovskiy A.V. Diskussionnye problemy tsennosti i stoimosti v otsenke ekonomicheskikh effektov [Controversial Issues of Value and Cost in Assessing Economic Effects]. Vestnik Altayskoy akademii ekonomiki i prava, 2024, no 5-2, pp. 353–357.
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9. Sorokin D.E. O sposobnosti Rossii k sotsial’noekonomicheskim transformatsiyam [On Russia’s Ability to Undergo Socio-economic Transformations]. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii, 2019, no 1(59), pp. 23–28.
10. Amzhrdzhanyants F., Sis’kov V., Gubanov S., Ivanova N. Potrebitel’no-stoimostnaya sistema sotsialisticheskogo khozyaystvovaniya i obespecheniya kachestva produktsii [Consumer-cost System of Socialist Management and Quality Assurance of Products]. Moscow, Izd-vo standartov, 1990, 240 p.
Improving Institutional Mechanisms of Innovative Economic Growth
DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.52-57
The article examines conceptual foundations and practical aspects of improving institutional mechanisms aimed at strengthening the innovative component of economic growth and creating favourable conditions for a long-term increase of the profit rate in high-tech industries.
References:
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Is Poverty Eradicable? Concept of Natural Poverty
DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.58-63
The problem of poverty remains one of the most significant in the national and global economies. Today the effectiveness of fighting it is in question, as well as the feasibility of achieving poverty eradication goals. The present study aims to discover whether poverty can be eradicated and, in case of impossibility — to assess the level to which poverty can be reduced. The article proves the impossibility of overcoming poverty not “on paper”, whether it’s absolute, relative or deprivation poverty. In any case, there is always a portion of poor population that, either by their own choice or as a result of destructive or irrational behaviour, doesn’t leave the state of poverty. It is proposed to classify this part of the population as natural poverty. Based on analysis of a number of destructive habits, inherent in individuals unable to escape poverty, it is proved that they possess at least three of the six deviations from socially accepted behaviour studied. The author examines the level of natural poverty in Russia, to this end a method for estimating the level of natural poverty, based on probabilistic approach, is developed. It is revealed that natural poverty in the Russian Federation is declining, especially during periods of crisis, which demonstrates gradual recovery of Russian society.
References:
1. Atkinson A.B. Measuring Poverty around the World. London, Princeton University Press, 2019, 464 p.
2. Belopashentseva P.V. Chto govorit o rossiyskoy bednosti deprivatsionnyy podkhod? [What does the Deprivation Approach Say about Russian Poverty?]. Monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya: ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny, 2022, no 4, pp. 110–129.
3. Perskaya V.V. Perekhod k mnogopolyarnosti: polya srazheniy ili pozitsionnoe protivostoyanie? [Transition to Multipolarity: Battlefields or Positional Opposition?]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2019, no 1, pp. 62–69.
4. Tsel’ 1: Povsemestnaya likvidatsiya nishchety vo vsekh ee formakh [Goal 1: End Poverty in All its Forms Everywhere]. OON, available at: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/ru/poverty/
5. Poverty and Inequity Platform. PIP. The World Bank, available at: https://pip.worldbank.org/home
6. Kashnikova T.V. Fenomen bednosti i ego strukturno-funktsional’nye kharakteristiki [The Phenomenon of Poverty and its Structural and Functional Characteristics]. Gosudarstvennoe i munitsipal’noe upravlenie. Uchenye zapiski, 2021, no 3, pp. 70–74.
7. Rethinking Poverty. Report on the World Social Situation 2010, available at: https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/rwss/docs/2010/fullreport.pdf
8. Ravallion M., Chen S. Global poverty measurement when relative income matters. Journal of Public Economics, 2019, no 177, pp. 104046.
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Methodological Issues of Risk Assessment in Large Investment Projects. Part 2
DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.64-73
The article substantiates a working toolkit for assessing the risks of implementing alternative projects aimed at creation and production of supersonic passenger aircraft in Russia based on the SWOT analysis techniques. The authors propose a methodological approach to formalizing definition of the competition intensity between manufacturers, as well as the degree of suppliers’ and buyers’ influence on them (developing the conceptual provisions of M. Porter’s five forces of competition model) based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. Primary matrix is constructed. Contribution of each factor to the overall integral result is calculated using the modified method of analyzing the internal and external environment profiles, proposed by the authors. The main factors of the project’s effectiveness and threats to its successful completion are identified. Preliminary assessment of the potential need of Russian aviation companies for supersonic aircraft designed for passenger transportation in the Far Eastern Federal District is given.
References:
[1-14] See in no. 4/2025. p. 137.
15. Pukhov A.A., Kolpakov S.K. Uroven’ gotovnosti tekhnologiy zarubezhnykh proektov sverkhzvukovykh grazhdanskikh samoletov novogo pokoleniya [The Level of Readiness of Technologies of Foreign Projects of Supersonic Civil Aircraft of the New Generation]. TVF (Tekhnika vozdushnogo flota), 2023, no 2, pp. 7–28.
16. Matchenko O.V. V razrabotke sverkhzvukovogo passazhirskogo samoleta my mozhem operedit’ Zapad [We Can Get Ahead of the West in Developing a Supersonic Passenger Aircraft]. MashNews. 2023, 29 maya, available at: https://mashnews.ru/v-razrabotke-sverxzvukovogo-passazhirskogo-samolyota-myimozhem-operedit-zapadnyix-konkurentov-chlen-korrespondent-ran-kirill-syipalo.html
17. Amirdzhanyan M. Pervyy v RF sverkhzvukovoy grazhdanskiy samolet mozhet byt’ sproektirovan za sem’-vosem’ let [The First Supersonic Civil Aircraft in Russia Could be Designed in Seven to Eight Years]. TASS, 2018, 29 yanvarya, available at: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/4911172
18. Kramnik I. Illyuziya vozmozhnostey: zachem nuzhen sverkhzvukovoy passazhirskiy samolet [The Illusion of Possibilities: Why We Need a Supersonic Passenger Jet]. Izvestiya, 2019, 19 fevralya.
19. Samofalova O. Ambitsioznyy proekt novogo sverkhzvukovogo avialaynera obrechen na proval [Ambitious New Supersonic Airliner Project Doomed to Failure]. Vzglyad, 2019, 1 fevralya, available at: https://vz.ru/economy/2019/2/1/962052.html
20. Sidnyaev N.I. Perspektivy razvitiya sovremennykh sverkhzvukovykh passazhirskikh samoletov [Prospects for the Development of Modern Supersonic Passenger Aircraft]. Inzhenernyy zhurnal: nauka i innovatsii, 2023, no 1, pp. 1–31.
21. Shchennikov V.S. Perspektivy razrabotki sverkhzvukovykh passazhirskikh samoletov [Prospects for the Development of Supersonic Passenger Aircraft]. Vestnik ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti, 2018, no 2, pp. 369–373.
22. FAA nastraivaet sverkhzvuk pod sebya [FAA Tweaks Supersonics to Suit Its Needs]. Aeronautica.online, 2019, 23 iyunya, available at: https://aeronautica.online/faa-announces-upcoming -rulemakings — civil- supersonic-flight












