DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.122.2025.5-14

The article considers the problems of counteracting the risks of initiated loss of controllability of state organizational systems in the context of attempts to seize power by an identified and unidentified enemy. A set of indicators describing the system under consideration is analyzed, and the relationships between these indicators are established.

References: 

1. Abramov V.I., Loginov E.L. Agent-based approaches to the analysis and forecasting of political sentiment in society and the construction of mechanisms for adjusting positive and negative reactions to socio-political situations. Russia in the 21st century: global challenges and development prospects: Proceedings of the Seventh International Forum, Moscow, December 20–21, 2018. Moscow: IPR RAS, 2018. pp. 373-376.

2. Ageev A.I., Grabchak E.P., Loginov E.L. Use of artificial intelligence in the implementation of troop command and control of civilian facilities as a single hybrid battlefield. Neurocomputers and their application: Abstracts of the XX All-Russian Scientific Conference, Moscow, March 22, 2022. Moscow: MGPPU, 2022. pp. 31-33.

3. Ageev A.I., Ivanova O.D., Loshchinin A.A. Technology of the information space of data and improvement of public administration. Economic strategies. 2023;25(6 (192)):62-67.

4. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L., Raikov A.N. Information systems for emergency management. Economic strategies. 2019;21(2(160)):20-29.

5. Grigoriev V.V., Loginov E.L. Strategic operations: maintaining the economic basis for the stability of the political regime of the Russian Federation in the context of international sanctions. Problems of Improving the Efficiency of Scientific Work in the Military-Industrial Complex of Russia: Proceedings of the VII All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference, Znamensk, April 11-12, 2024. Astrakhan: Astrakhan State University named after V.N. Tatishchev, 2024. pp. 204-205.

6. Grigoriev V.V., Loginov E.L., Shkuta A.A. Development of New Intelligent Information and Analytical Services Using Factor Analysis and Clustering to Identify Transactions with Signs of Participation in the Financing of Terrorism. Bulletin of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute. 2019;2:16.

7. Loginov E.L. Using Big Data Technologies to Counter Mass Riots in Conditions of Lack of Information and Uncertainty of the Situation Development. Artificial Intelligence (Big Data) in the Service of the Police: Collection of Articles from the International Scientific and Practical Conference, Moscow, November 28, 2019. Moscow: Academy of Management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, 2020. pp. 145-150.

8. Loginov E.L., Matveev A.G., Shkuta A.A. Determination of Parameters of Localized States of Implicit Groups with Their Own Component of Active Behavior That Does Not Coincide with the Vector of Actions of the State Supersystem. Artificial Societies. 2019;14(1):5.

9. Loginov E.L. Interception of Control over Complex Organizational Systems in the Context of Blurring Boundaries between Physical, Cognitive, and Digital Activity Spaces and Management Environments. Economy: Theory and Practice. 2024; (1(73)):3-10.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.122.2025.15-28

This article examines the methodological aspects of the formation of a risk management system in international commodity supply chains in modern socio-economic conditions. The paper considers the impact of the following risk groups in international commodity supply chains: static (simple), dynamic (speculative) risks, diversification, dissipation, hedging, risk transfer, supplier risks and risks of geopolitical instability.

The issues of risk prevention and mitigation are becoming more and more in demand in international supply chains. Russian companies are forced to take risks in order to achieve their goals, and risk management is designed to optimize the set of risks. In conditions where market economy actors risk not only their own, but also a large number of borrowed funds, the consequences become more acute. In case of failure, not only Russian companies lose, but also their economic infrastructure, in particular, counterparties. That is why Russian companies should pay great attention to the introduction of effective risk management, thanks to which it is possible to identify emerging risks and opportunities in a timely manner, as well as respond to them in a timely manner.

References: 

1. Afendikova E.Yu., Ksenzhuk A.N., Kovaleva V.I. Risk management tools in crisis management of a modern enterprise: identification and classification of risks. In the collection: Eurasian Science. Moscow, 2024. pp. 453-455.

2. Bobrova A.V. Factor analysis of the effectiveness of international commodity supply chains. In the collection: Problems of economic security and customs regulation: the search for effective solutions. South Ural State University. 2023. pp. 30-43.

3. Klimashevich S.V. Digitalization of transport corridors as a promising tool for the development of international supply chains. In the collection: Logistics – the Eurasian bridge. Krasnoyarsk, 2021. pp. 322-325.

4. Kopylova O.A., Mishkurov P.N. Designing a supply chain taking into account the risks of organizing international transportation and general logistical costs. In the collection: Polytransport systems. Novosibirsk, 2024. pp. 103-108.

5. Kostioglo V.Kh., Titovets M.I., Titovets E.I. Supply chain management in conditions of international economic instability. Economics: yesterday, today, tomorrow. 2024;14(4-1):796-805.

6. Mesharova E.Y. The impact of sanctions on international supply chains. In the collection: Innovative aspects of service and tourism development. Collection of articles of the VIII International Scientific and Practical Conference. 2020. pp. 75-79.

7. Mishchishina A.N. Directions of restructuring international supply chains as a basis for socio-economic development of Russia. In the collection: A young researcher. Lipetsk, 2024. pp. 436-439.

8. Mitko O.A. A modern view on the development and planning of supply chains: an international aspect. In the collection: Creative logistics: strategies and technologies. Rostov-on-Don, 2024. pp. 88-92.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.122.2025.29-34

At present in the Government of the Russian Federation strategic and operational directions in the field of import substitution are supervised by various «regulators» in general for the economy and industries, including the needs of the oil and gas complex. The article considers the functions of the main regulatory bodies, substantiates the creation of a single management body of import-independence of Russia, endowed with the necessary powers – the State Planning and Economic Committee for National Development.

References: 

1. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated April 15, 2014 No. 328 (as amended on June 10, 2022) «On Approval of the State Program of the Russian Federation «Development of Industry and Increasing its Competitiveness». URL:  https://base.garant.ru/70643464/

2. Federal Law «On Industrial Policy in the Russian Federation» dated December 31, 2014 No. 488-FZ (latest edition). URL: consultant.ru›document/cons_doc_LAW_173119/

3. Decree of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation dated August 11, 2016 No. 219P-AU «On Approval of Methodological Recommendations for the Preparation of Corporate Import Substitution Plans by State Corporations, State-owned Companies, Joint-Stock Companies in whose Authorized Capital the Participation of the Russian Federation exceeds 50 Percent, organizations Implementing investment projects included in the Register of Investment projects in accordance with the decision of the Government Commission on Import Substitution». URL: https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/71366992/ 

4. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of December 23, 2024 No. 1875 «On Measures to Provide National Treatment for the Procurement of Goods, Works, and Services to Meet State and Municipal Needs, procurement of Goods, Works, and Services by Certain Types of Legal Entities» / Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of December 23, 2024 No. 1875. URL: https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/411097447/

5. Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation (approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of December 1, 2016 No. 642). URL: // https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_207967/

6. Government support for import substitution: programs, subsidies, and tools to help industrial companies. The documents are from the Russian Government. URL: http://government.ru›docs/all/131814/

7.       Federal Law of July 29, 2017 No. 216-FZ (ed. December 28, 2022) «On innovative scientific and technological centers and on amendments to certain legislative acts of the Russian Federation». URL: https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_221172/

8. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated December 12, 2019 No. 1649 «On Approval of the Rules for Granting Subsidies from the Federal Budget to Russian Organizations for Financial Support of the Costs of Conducting Research and Development Work on Modern Technologies as part of the Implementation of Innovative Projects by such Organizations and on Invalidation of Certain Acts of the Government of the Russian Federation» (with changes and additions). URL: https://base.garant.ru/73229392/

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.122.2025.35-51

The article provides a comparative analysis of foreign qualitative models of bankruptcy forecasting, in particular the models of W. Beaver and D. Duran, with the aim of assessing their applicability to Russian innovative companies. The strengths and weaknesses of the models are considered, as well as the features of their use in the context of Russian reporting under Russian accounting standards (RAS standards). The study presents the results of calculations of financial ratios for 22 Russian mobile operators and telecommunications services (hereinafter referred to as Russian innovative companies) and their comparison with the real financial situation. To assess the accuracy of predictions, the F1 measure was used, the results of which revealed a significant number of inaccuracies in bankruptcy forecasting. Based on the data obtained, the issue of adapting foreign qualitative models of bankruptcy forecasting to Russian economic realities and taking into account the industry specifics of Russian innovative companies in their research is considered.

References: 

1. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation dated April 15, 2014 No. 328 (as amended on June 10, 2022) «On Approval of the State Program of the Russian Federation «Development of Industry and Increasing its Competitiveness». URL:  https://base.garant.ru/70643464/

2. Federal Law «On Industrial Policy in the Russian Federation» dated December 31, 2014 No. 488-FZ (latest edition). URL: consultant.ru›document/cons_doc_LAW_173119/

3. Decree of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation dated August 11, 2016 No. 219P-AU «On Approval of Methodological Recommendations for the Preparation of Corporate Import Substitution Plans by State Corporations, State-owned Companies, Joint-Stock Companies in whose Authorized Capital the Participation of the Russian Federation exceeds 50 Percent, organizations Implementing investment projects included in the Register of Investment projects in accordance with the decision of the Government Commission on Import Substitution». URL: https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/71366992/ 

4. Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of December 23, 2024 No. 1875 «On Measures to Provide National Treatment for the Procurement of Goods, Works, and Services to Meet State and Municipal Needs, procurement of Goods, Works, and Services by Certain Types of Legal Entities» / Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of December 23, 2024 No. 1875. URL: https://www.garant.ru/products/ipo/prime/doc/411097447/

5. Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation (approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of December 1, 2016 No. 642). URL: // https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_207967/

6. Government support for import substitution: programs, subsidies, and tools to help industrial companies. The documents are from the Russian Government. URL: http://government.ru›docs/all/131814/