DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.104-119

Currently, there is no a single methodology that allows us to present substantiated evidence-based statistics on the presence or absence of a “campaign” of racial or ethnic discrimination. Identification or confirmation of the absence of disparate impact that Russia has on Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars as a result of an allegedly ongoing “campaign of racial discrimination” [1] in the field of education was carried out on the basis of an assessment of population census data. The author presents the use of a complex methodology, including analysis of statistical cross-tabulations (contingency tables), variation indicators, testing hypotheses using the Chi-square test (chi-square statistic-χ2), assessing the relationship closeness with the help of the Pearson and Chuprov mutual contingency coefficients, as well as Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. Assessment of differences in structures by ethnicity is based on calculations and comparison of specific weights and a generalizing/integral indicator of structural shifts/differences (V.M. Ryabtsev index). Testing of this approach resulted in a conclusion that there was no racial/ethnic discrimination as a “campaign” carried out in the territory of the Republic of Crimea in the period from 2014 to the present.

References:

1. MID Rossii. O vystuplenii rossiyskikh predstaviteley v khode ustnykh slushaniy v Mezhdunarodnom Sude OON po delu Ukraina protiv Rossii [Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. On the Speech of Russian Representatives During the Oral Hearings at the International Court of Justice in the Case of Ukraine v. Russia]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Ministerstva inostrannykh del RF, 2023, 10 iyunya, available at: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1886510/

2. The advanced theory of statistics. Vol. I. Distribution theory. Maurice G. Kendall, M.A., sc.D., & Alan Stuart, B.Sc. (Econ.). Charles griffin & Company limited. London. 1958.

3. Tractenberg R. Ethical practice of statistics and data science. Ethics International Press Limited, 2022.

4. Surinov A., Dianov M. (red.). Itogi perepisi naseleniya v Krymskom federal’nom okruge. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki (IITs “Statistika Rossii”, Moskva, 2015) [Results of the Population Census in the Crimean Federal District. Federal State Statistics Service (IRC “Statistics of Russia”, Moscow, 2015)]. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/KRUM_2015.pdf

5. Federal’naya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki, Vserossiyskaya perepis’ naseleniya 2020 goda [Federal State Statistics Service, All-Russian Population Census 2020]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Federal’noy sluzhby gosudarstvennoy statistiki, available at: https://rosstat.gov.ru/vpn_popul

6. UNECE. Conference of European Statisticians Recommendations for the 2020 Censuses of Population and Housing. UNECE, available at: https://unece.org/statistics/publications/conference-european-statisticians-recommendations-2020-censuses-population

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.96-103

The authors present the results of the expert seminars of the “Meanings of the Caucasus” Laboratory” project on the development of consolidating semantic structures that are relevant for the youth of the North Caucasus Federal District. The key challenges in the cognitive sphere, that the civilizational identity of the multinational people of Russia faces in the North Caucasus, are examined.

The authors provide materials from expert discussions of possible options for countering existing threats through the search for consolidating meanings and practices in the following areas: historical memory, value system, image of the future. They identify key historical events and personalities whose activities have had a constructive, unifying character for the Russian Caucasus, and in modern conditions are positively perceived by the youth audience. The article also highlights value orientations specific to the North Caucasus, that correlate with the all-Russian system of traditional spiritual and moral values. An analysis of the honor codes that were in demand over three historical eras (Russian Empire, USSR, modern Russia) by residents of the North Caucasus with description of the common core of values is provided.

Conclusion is made about the need to promote the above described consolidating meanings through the existing publicinstitutions of the North Caucasus Federal District.

References:

1. Il’nitskii A.M. Mental’naya voina Rossii [Mental War of Russia]. Voennaya mysl’, 2021, no 8, pp. 19–33.

2. Magomedova M.A. Mezhetnicheskie konflikty i protivorechiya na Severnom Kavkaze v kontekste regional’noi bezopasnosti [Interethnic Conflicts and Contradictions in the North Caucasus in the Context of Regional Security]. Vlast’, 2023, no 2, pp. 72–78.

3. Starodubrovskaya I.V., Kazenin K.I. Severnyi Kavkaz: Quo Vadis? Ekspertnyi doklad [North Caucasus: Quo Vadis? Expert Report]. Moscow, 2013, 67 p.

4. Nadein-Raevskii V.A. Pantyurkizm: ideologiya, istoriya, politika. Ekspansionistskaya doktrina: ot Osmanskoi imperii do nashikh dnei i sud’by Turtsii, Rossii i Armenii [Pan-Turkism: Ideology, History, Politics. Expansionist Doctrine: from the Ottoman Empire to the Present Day and the Fate of Turkey, Russia and Armenia]. Moscow, Russkaya panorama, 2017, 316 p.

5. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 31 marta 2023 g. N 229 “Ob utverzhdenii Kontseptsii vneshnei politiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii” [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of March 31, 2023 No. 229 “On approval of the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://kremlin.ru/events/preysident/news/70811

6. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 9 noyabrya 2022 g. N 809 “Ob utverzhdenii Osnov gosudarstvennoi politiki po sokhraneniyu i ukrepleniyu traditsionnykh rossiiskikh dukhovno-nravstvennykh tsennostei” [. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of November 9, 2022 No. 809 “On approval of the Fundamentals of State Policy for the Preservation and Strengthening of Traditional Russian Spiritual and Moral Values”]. Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/48502

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.94-103

The author dwells on self-similar factors that have regulated, regulate and in the nearest future will regulate sociohistorical processes. The old regulation methods, which have been characteristic of the planet and societ y’s biosphere for billions of years, are losing their dominance. This is expressed as a “crisis of crises”. New regulation methods have already begun to emerge in the historical process, but the final transition of societ y to the next stage of development will take place only after the singularity, that is, after a radical change in the principles, scales and dimensions of development. The main features of the new regulation methods are the reasonable exogenous development of our civilization, which can become an element of large space systems.

References:

1. Panov A.D. Krizis planetarnogo tsikla universal’noi istorii [Crisis of the Planetary Cycle of Universal History]. Moscow, NIIYaF MGU, 2005.

2. Nazaretyan A.P. Nelineinoe budushchee: megaistoricheskie, sinergeticheskie i kul’turno-psikhologicheskie predposylki global’nogo prognozirovaniya [Non-Linear Future: Mega-Historical, 3. Synergetic and Cultural-Psychological Prerequisites for Global Forecasting]. Institut vostokovedeniya RAN. Moscow, Izd-vo MBA, 2013, p. 303.

3. Sudakov K.V. Izbrannye trudy [Selected Works]. Moscow, GU NII normal’noi fiziologii im. P.K. Anokhina RAMN, 2007, vol 1. Razvitie teorii funktsional’nykh system, Moscow, 2007, pp. 233, 234.

4. Snooks G.D. The dynamic society. Exploring the source of global change. L. — N.Y., Routledge, 1996.

5. Panov A.D. Universal’naya evolyutsiya i problema poiska vnezemnogo razuma (SETI) [Universal Evolution and the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Problem]. Moscow, Izd-vo LKI, 2008, 208 p. (Sinergetika v gumanitarnykh naukakh.)

6. Est’ li budushchee u nauki: Interv’yu S.P. Kurdyumova i G.G. Malinetskogo o regulyatsii slozhnykh sistem [Is There a Future for Science: Interview with S.P. Kurdyumov and G.G. Malinetsky on the regulation of complex systems]. YouTube. Programma «Gordon» («Dialogi»), available at: https://youtu.be/DueTp7idhUo.

7. Kara-Murza S.G. Nauka kak koren’ Rossii [Science as a Root of Russia]. Razvitie i ekonomika: Al’manakh, available at: http://devec.ru/almanah/7/1426-sergej-kara-murza-nauka-kakkoren-rossii.ht.

8. Ovchinskii V., Larina E. Kholodnaya voina 2.0: Doklad Izborskomu klubu [Cold War 2.0: Report to the Izborsk Club]. Izborskii klub, available at: ht tp:// www.dynacon.ru/content/articles/4224/

9. Konets Istorii. Chto takoe singulyarnost’ i nado li ee boyat’sya? Interv’yu K. Frumkina S. Medvedevu [End of History. What is the Singularity and Should We be Afraid of it? Interview of K. Frumkin to S. Medvedev]. Radio Svoboda, available at: ht tp://www.svoboda.org/a/27934174.html.

10. Malinetskii G.G., Potapov A.B. Dzhokery, rusla ili poiski tret’ei paradigmy [Jokers, Channels or Search for the Third Paradigm]. Sinergeticheskaya paradigma. Moscow, 2000, Sait S.P. Kurdyumova “Sinergetika”, available at: http://spkurdyumov.ru/introduction/dzhokery-rusla/

DOI: 10.33917/es-3.189.2023.86-93

The author examines a number of topical aspects of socio-political practice and futurology of the ongoing process of cardinal transformations in post-Soviet Russia. It is shown that this process constitutes the essence of global trends of permanent renewal of state-public institutions, socio-political and production practices; it is associated with abandoning outdated ideologemes, economic concepts, with the elites change in the ongoing struggle for dominance in power structures.

References:

1. Kenko-khosi. Zapiski ot skuki [Boredom Notes]. Saint Petersburg, 2011, p. 11.

2. Khaidegger M. Istoki khudozhestvennogo tvoreniya (1935–1936): Izbrannye raboty raznykh let [Origins of Artistic Creation (1935–1936): Selected Works of Different Years]. Moscow, 2008, p. 421, available at: Haydegger_Istok-hudozhestvennogo-tvoreniya_RuLit_Me_515679.pdf.

3. Aron R. Etapy razvitiya sotsiologicheskoi mysli [Stages of the Sociological Thought Development]. Moscow, 1992, p. 256.

4. Knyazeva E., Kurdyumov S. Osnovaniya sinergetiki: Rezhimy s obostreniem, samoorganizatsiya, tempomiry [Fundamentals of Synergetics: Blow-Up Modes, Self-Organization, Tempo Worlds]. Saint Petersburg, 2002, pp. 306–308.

5. Makanin V. Pyataya knopka [Fifth Button]. Novyi mir, 2006, p. 10.

6. Rakitov A. Tsivilizatsiya, kul’tura, tekhnologiya i rynok [Civilization, Culture, Technology and the Market]. Voprosy filosofii, 1992, no 5.

7. Gesse G. Faust i Zaratustra. Doklad, sdelannyi v bremenskoi mestnoi gruppe Germanskogo soyuza monistov 1 maya 1909 g.: V kn. “Faust i Zaratustra” [Faust and Zarathustra. Report made in the Bremen local group of the German Monist Union on May 1, 1909: In the book “Faust and Zarathustra”]. Saint Petersburg, 2001, p. 23.

8. Yadov V.A. Teoretiko-kontseptual’noe ob”yasnenie “postkommunisticheskikh transformatsii” [Theoretical-Conceptual Explanation of “Post-Communist Transformations”]. Rossiya transformiruyushchayasya. Ezhegodnik, vyp. 6, Moscow, 2006, p. 124.

9. Davydov A.A. Mezhdu mistikoi i ratio [Between Mysticism and Ratio]. Moscow, 2006.

10. Kelly K. Fouth, Humanism and Technology. N.Y. — L., 1972.

11. Lisichkin V.A., Virin M.M. Informatsionnoe obshchestvo kak politicheskaya futurologiya [The Information Society as Political Futurology]. Moscow, 2009, p. 25.

12. Mesarovic M., Pestel E. Mankind at the Turning Point. N.Y., 1974, p. 40.

13. Sorokin P.A. Glavnye tendentsii nashego vremeni [Major Trends of Our Time]. Moscow, 1997.

14. Epshtein M. Znak probela [Blank Spaces]. O budushchem gumanitarnykh nauk, Moscow, 2004.

15. Horgan J. The End of Science: Facing the Limits of Knowledge in the Twilight of the Scientific Age. N.Y., Broadway Books, 1997, p. 7.

16. Kuznetsov V. Geokul’tura [Geoculture]. Moscow, 2000, p. 580–582.

17. Annan K. Predotvrashchenie voin i bedstvii: global’nyi vyzov rastushchikh masshtabov: Godovoi doklad OON za 1999 g. [Preventing Wars and Disasters: A Global Challenge of Growing Size: UN Annual Report 1999]. N.Y., 2000.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.132-137

The article analyzes mathematical modeling as a methodology for the study of finance, which today is quite limited and outdated. The directions of the introduction of additional methodology in the field of finance — behavioral science are studied. The behavioral methodology is revealed for: predicting the reaction of investors; considering the general question of how financial markets help the country in allocating resources and ensuring long-term economic stability; contributing to improving the process of making financial and investment decisions. The usefulness of introducing behavioral models into financial science is substantiated, which in combination with mathematical modeling will allow for significant updates in this area.

References:

1. Bukhvalov A.V., Okulov V.L. Klassicheskie modeli tsenoobrazovaniya na kapital’nye aktivy i rossiiskii fondovyi rynok. Chast’ 1. Empiricheskaya proverka modeli CAPM [Classic Pricing Models for Capital Assets and the Russian Stock Market. P. 1. Empirical Verification of the CAPM Model]. Nauchnye doklady, 2006, no 36 (R). Saint Petersburg, NII menedzhmenta SPbGU.

2. Semenkova E.V. Operatsii s tsennymi bumagami [Operations with Securities]. Moscow, Poisk, 2005, p. 374.

3. Zaleznik A., Christensen S.R., Roethlisberger F.J. Motivation, Productivity and employee Satisfaction. Boston, Harvard University Graduate School of Business Administration, 1958.

4. Fama E., Miller M.H. Theory of Finance. Hinsdale, Dryden Press, 1972.

5. Simon H.A. Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought. Richard T. Ely Lecture. American Economic Review, May, 1978, vol. 68, N 2, pp. 1–16. American Economic Association, 1978.

6. Herzberg F. Work and Human Nature. New York, World Publishing Co., 1966.

7. Maslow A. Motivation and Personality. New York, Harper & Bros, 1954; 1987.

8. Fourier J.B.J. The Analytical Theory of Heat, quoted in Herbert A. Simon’s book “Human Models”. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1957.

9. Filer R., Maytal Sh., Simon J. “Risk Taking and Risk Aversion: A Stock Market Simulation Game”, unpublished paper read at the Eastern Financial Association Spring Meeting. April 21, 1979. Washington, DC.

10. Ash S.E. Opinions and Social Pressure: Readings in Management Psychology. Ed. Harold J. Leavitt and Louis R. Pondy. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1964, pp. 304–314.

11. Friedman M., Savage L.J. An Analysis of the Utility of Risk-taking Choices. Journal of Political Economy, August, 1948, pp. 279–304.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-5.185.2022.120-131

The article is devoted to the anthropic regulation of social processes in the conditions of social extremum. According to the authors, the way out of the “crisis of crises” is possible thanks to the functioning of a special information and semantic object — a cognitive platform that allows for the regulation of society in accordance with a new self-similar attractor of the historical process “from the future”. At the same time, the pathological structures of society that prevent the transition to a new level of development will not be able to function and reproduce.

References:

1. Panov A.D. Krizis planetarnogo tsikla universal’noi istorii [C risis of the Planetary Cycle of Universal History]. Moscow, NIIYaF MGU, 2005.

2. The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics. Edited by B. S. DeWitt and N. Graham. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1973.

3. Nazaretyan A.P. Nelineinoe budushchee: megaistoricheskie, sinergeticheskie i kul’turno-psikhologicheskie predposylki global’nogo prognozirovaniya [Nonlinear Future: Mega-historical, Synergetic and Cultural-Psychological Prerequisites for Global Forecasting]. Moscow, Institut vostokovedeniya RAN, 2013, p. 303.

4. Onishchenko E. Poluprovodnikovye geterostruktury: ot klassicheskikh k nizkorazmernym, ili “Konstruktor” ot nobelevskogo laureata [Semiconductor Heterostructures: from Classical to Low-Dimensional Ones, or “Designer” Kit from the Nobel Laureate]. Scientific.ru, available at: http://www.scientific.ru/journal/onisch/onisch.html.

5. Tsarev D., Trofimova A., Alodyants A., Khrennikov A. Fazovye perekhody, kollektivnye emotsii i problema prinyatiya reshenii v geterogennykh sotsial’nykh sistemakh [Phase Transitions, Collective Emotions and the Problem of Decision Making in Heterogeneous Social Systems]. Springer Nature, 2019, 2 dekabrya, available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-54296-7.

6. Khrennikov A. Sotsial’nyi lazer: primenenie kvantovykh informatsionnykh i polevykh teorii k modelirovaniyu sotsial’nykh protsessov [Social Laser: Application of Quantum Information and Field Theories to the Social Processes Modeling]. Ridero, 2019, available at: Social Laser: Application of Quantum Information and Field Theories to Modeling of Social Processes.

7. Nasonov A.N., Tsvetkov I.V., Zhogin I.M., et al. Fraktaly v naukakh o Zemle [Fractals in Earth Sciences]. Ucheb. posobie. Voronezh, 2018, 82 p.

8. Malinetskii G.G., Potapov A.B. Dzhokery, rusla ili poiski tret’ei paradigmy [Jokers, Channels or Searching for the Third Paradigm]. Sinergeticheskaya paradigm. Moscow, 2000, Sait S.P. Kurdyumova “Sinergetika”, available at: http://spkurdyumov.ru/introduction/dzhokery-rusla/

9. Sundiev I.Yu. Lichnost’, gruppa, obshchestvo v ekstremal’nye periody razvitiya [Individual, Group, Society in the Extreme Periods of Development]. Moscow, 1993, 273 p.

10. Vladimir Putin prinyal uchastie v XVIII Ezhegodnom zasedanii Mezhdunarodnogo diskussionnogo kluba «Valdai»: Stenogramma plenarnoi sessii [Vladimir Putin Took Part in the XVIII Annual Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club: Plenary Session Transcript]. Diskussionnyi klub “Valdai”, 2021, 21 oktyabrya, available at: https://ru.valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/vladimir-putin-xviii-ezhegodnoe-zasedanie-mezhdunarodnogo-diskussionnogo-klubavalday-stenogramma/

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.180.2021.30-39

The overwhelming majority of social infrastructure facilities remain in state ownership, requiring special formats for attracting private investment without possibility of disposition and loss of their destination. Mechanism of public-private partnership doesn’t leave any other option for such projects, and the “private concession initiative”, which has become widespread in recent years, is best suited for projects focused on commercial activities, although this limits its application to social facilities. Non-competitive basis of this format relies on the market offer of the investor, whose rationality does not imply social behavior and whose activity is obviously not intended for budgetary participation. Recently, there has been an increase in cases of government authorities taking commitments on budgetary co-financing of agreements concluded as a result of such initiatives, which is often fraught with systemic violations of budgetary legislation. Connivance of the control-supervisory and judicial authorities results in formation of skewed law enforcement practice, in 36.2% of projects investors receive

additional rental income from the budget, objectively not justified. This not only results in budget overpayments, but also devalues competitive formats that were previously quite successful — at present only 1/5 of social projects are concluded through a competitive process.

Источники:

1. Kireeva A.V. Sovremennye problemy institutsional’nogo regulirovaniya ekonomicheskikh otnoshenii v sfere gosudarstvenno-chastnogo partnerstva [Modern Problems of Institutional Regulation of Economic Relations in the Field of Public-Private Partnership]. Vestnik Evraziiskoi nauki, 2020, no 4, available at: https://esj.today/PDF/56ECVN420.pdf.

2. Kudelich M.I. Pryamoe soglashenie v proektakh s gosudarstvennym uchastiem: sravnitel’no-pravovoi analiz [Direct Agreement in Projects with State Participation: Comparative Legal Analysis]. Finansovyi zhurnal, 2019, no 6, pp. 57–69, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2019-6-57-69.

3. Ponomarev R.V. Osobennosti regulirovaniya kontsessionnykh soglashenii v zarubezhnykh stranakh [Peculiarities of Regulating Concession Agreements in Foreign Countries]. Innovatsii i investitsii, 2015, no 8, pp. 66–70.

4. Istomina N.A. Konkurentsiya za byudzhetnye sredstva v kontseptsii byudzhetirovaniya, orientirovannogo na rezul’tat [Competition for Budgetary Funds in the Concept of Performance-Based Budgeting]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya, 2014, no 29, pp. 41–47.

5. Gavrilova Yu.A. Monitoring praktiki primeneniya zakonodatel’stva o kontraktnoi sisteme i perspektivy ego sovershenstvovaniya [Monitoring the Practice of Applying Legislation on the Contract System and Prospects for Its Improvement]. Monitoring pravoprimeneniya, 2019, no 3, pp. 36–42, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.21681/2226-0692-2019-3-36-42.

6. Belozor F.I. Zakupki dlya gosudarstvennykh nuzhd: garmonizatsiya dobrosovestnoi konkurentsii i ekonomicheskoi effektivnosti [Public Procurement: Harmonizing Fair Competition and Economic Efficiency]. Gosudarstvennoe i munitsipal’noe upravlenie. Uchenye zapiski, 2021, no 1, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.22394/2079-1690-2021-1-1-93-101.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.180.2021.20-29

Demographic dynamics becomes crucially important for successful scenario of the future for both Eurasian integration and each EAEU member state. The “pandemic crisis” caused an increase in excess mortality, reduced social well-being and created serious legal and managerial conflicts. Within the EAEU new barriers to mobility and migration have emerged and social tension has increased. In the existing realities the current supranational solutions are insufficient, they are poorly focused on achieving the demographic security of the EAEU member states. Coordinated actions are needed to significantly improve the demographic situation in the EAEU.

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.33917/es-5.179.2021.6-15

How is it that in Russia, unlike in other countries, during the coronavirus pandemic the total mortality increased by a record amount and the income and consumption of the population decreased to the greatest extent? The point is that the crisis, caused by the coronavirus pandemic, is completely different from previous ones. It highlights the dilemma: should we use forces and means to prevent an economic recession with lower costs for anti-crisis measures, or focus on saving people’s lives while minimizing additional mortality and maintaining real incomes of the population? Each country, depending on objectives, prevailing conditions and opportunities, chooses its “golden mean”. In many cases such choice is not fully conscious, since it’s not possible to forecast with any certainty even over the near term. Decisions have to be taken up along the way, based on the situation and assessing the probability of certain events, including in view of the other countries’  experience in combating the pandemic.

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.33917/es-5.179.2021.16-27

Result of the government’s many years of efforts to liberalize the market of social services is a huge number of organizations that are privately owned — 45,9%, but which have minimal impact on the infrastructure development. The reason is that private business alienates long-term and capital-intensive projects, and the overwhelming part of the social infrastructure (for sports facilities it constitutes 95.2%) remains in the state and municipal ownership. The state mistakenly classifies concession projects as investment projects that are paid back only through fee-based exploitation. Thus, social policy is being deprived of a promising mechanism — transformation of concession agreements into the basis for socialization of private investments, infrastructure and services. The identified problems of social disorientation in specifying criteria for evaluating the proposals of participants in concession tenders form the basis for asocial conditions of concession agreements, which makes social services inaccessible to the general population. Commercialization of the activities of social facilities is admissible (although in a limited sense), but at the same time, services at state tariffs or free of charge should prevail. There is a need for systematic scientific and methodological work on cross-cutting incorporation of this approach into the current regulatory framework and guidelines in order to create a network of basic social infrastructure for all segments of the population.