The article dwells on actual problems — increase in the volatility of the ruble exchange rate and its depreciation in 2018. At the same time, it is assumed that dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in general reflects the underlying economic processes (including abroad). Before the economic crisis that began in 2008, the ruble exchange rate for many years was mainly strengthening, and its volatility was relatively low. The situation has changed because the economies of a number of countries (in particular, Russia) have entered into a long, difficult period. So, for about a decade, the Russian economy has been showing slow growth. At the same time, the ruble exchange rate tends to depreciate. This allows the authors to assume that dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, which passed from a long upward to a downward stage about ten years ago, may be associated with a similar transition of the economy of Russia and some other countries to a downward stage (in N.D. Kondratieff terminology). The article analyzes a number of approaches to the problems of “long waves” in the economy and a conclusion is drawn up on the necessity to develop the RF monetary strategy (taking into account long-term macroeconomic processes).
As a result of further theoretical development of approaches to modeling equilibrium exchange rates developed a generalized dynamic model based on the concepts of macroeconomic equilibrium and the balance of payments with regard to the mechanism of formation relative international competitive advantage. In the framework proposed by the author concept IFEER withdrawn the final formula of the equilibrium exchange rates depending on the fundamental macroeconomic indicators.
The article deals with strategic directions of development of the Russian economy monetary regulation based on the current state of the Bank of Russia monetary policy, paradoxes of modern economic theory, analysis of new global trends in the money and capital markets, as well as the priority areas of the Russian financial market development and its financial infrastructure, tools and products.
Changing of a conjuncture index of “Economic strategy” (CIES) for the january–april 2016 is considered. The contribution of indicators of supply and demand in CIES is estimated. The analysis of industrial production is carried out.
The article deals with the reform of the RMB (Yuan) exchange rate, determines its steps and main guidelines, gives analysis of the corresponding legal and institutional changes. The reform of RMB exchange rate represents a unique experience of structural changes in the economy, particularly during the financial crisis. Today we are witnessing the Yuan progressive strengthening in the global economy. The author concludes that strategic goal of the reform is progressive transition of the Yuan to free convertibility and its acquiring the status of the world reserve currency.