DOI: 10.33917/es-1.205.2026.38-45

The paradigm shift in international relations has caused significant changes in financial markets. The proposed author’s methodology for economic-mathematical modeling of the ruble exchange rate based on international flows makes it possible to include capital flows in the modeling orbit at a formal-logical level in an explicit form, taking into account their short-term volatility. Conducted during various crisis periods — formally based on results of mathematical modeling — analysis and assessment of short-term effects of the ruble exchange rate dynamics show the presence of preconditions for producing shortterm volatility in the national currency exchange rate under conditions of unfavorable geo-economic environment and a freefloating exchange rate regime. Based on the above, it is concluded that the Bank of Russia needs to make more serious efforts to implement a stabilization exchange rate policy, which is one of the key components of macroeconomic management.

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As a result of further theoretical development of approaches to modeling equilibrium exchange rates developed a generalized dynamic model based on the concepts of macroeconomic equilibrium and the balance of payments with regard to the mechanism of formation relative international competitive advantage. In the framework proposed by the author concept IFEER withdrawn the final formula of the equilibrium exchange rates depending on the fundamental macroeconomic indicators.

At the theoretical-methodological level the article investigates the system interrelation of available tools and the complex of targeted parameters while carrying out the currency and monetary policy. From formal positions of economic-mathematical modeling it is shown that volatility of streams of the capital and volatility of the export prices, first of all prices of oil and oil products, directly define volatility of an exchange rate of ruble. It is shown that real transition to targeting of inflation in modern conditions of strategic pressure upon our country from the USA and the EU is represented premature, including in the context of national security of Russia.

The practice of manipulating the exchange rate to achieve the “unfair” competitive advantage in international trade has repeatedly led to waves (more properly to be termed wars) of devaluations in response

The reason for stable continuous movements of the equilibrium real exchange rate can be differences in growth rates of technological changes in commercial and non-trade sectors of the economy.