DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.125.2025.97-113

This article uses econometric modeling methods to examine a set of topological factors encompassing various mechanisms of the socio-economic system’s functioning. Correlation and regression analysis are used to determine linear relationships and establish the level of objective significance of factors influencing the formation of an active field of social protest in society. A set of econometric forecasting models has been developed, using the characteristics of scenario criteria for the socio-economic and political development of the state as exogenous variables influencing the degree of social protest in society. Three scenarios have been calculated based on these models: the baseline (the most probable), an optimistic scenario, and a pessimistic scenario. From an economic security perspective, the results obtained have been used to formulate a short-term forecast that reflects the dynamics of protest activity in the Russian Federation from 2022 to 2026 inclusive. Furthermore, at the final stage of the experiment, threshold values were determined for all the factors under study. This, combined with the proposed economic and mathematical method, provides a set of tools for making management decisions in the face of growing social tension.

References:

1. Alekseenok A.A., Baranochnikov V.A. The Influence of the Middle Class on the Level of Social Tension in Modern Society. Tula State University News. Humanities. 2012. No. 1-1. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/vliyanie-srednego-klassa-na-uroven-sotsialnoy-napryazhennosti-v-sovremennom-obschestve

2. Baranova G.V. A Model for Assessing Protest Forms of Socio-Political Activity. Theories and Problems of Political Research. 2016;4:97–108.

3. Beshlyk V.E., Svetlakov A.G. The Concept of «Justice» as an Element of the Economic Security System. Competitiveness in the Global World: Economics, Science, and Technology. 2022;11:217–223.

4. Gross National Income (million rubles, annual indicator value). EMISS State Statistics. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/30947

5. Gross National Income per capita in countries of the world. URL: https://svspb.net/danmark/vnd-stran-na-dushu-naselenija.php

6. Total registered crimes in the Russian Federation. Prosecutor General’s Office of the Russian Federation. Legal Statistics Portal. URL: http://crimestat.ru/offenses_table

7. Bank of Russia Roadmap for the Development of Financing for Small and Medium-Sized Businesses. URL: https://cbr.ru/Content/Document/File/144001/Road_Map_development_2023-24.pdf

8. Housing in Russia. Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/Jil_hoz_2022.pdf

9. Healthcare in Russia. Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/folder/210/document/13218

10. Corruption Perceptions Index. URL: https://transparency.org.ru/search/

11. Quality of Life Index by Country. Numbeo. URL: https://www.numbeo.com/quality-of-life/rankings_by_country.jsp?

12. Consumer Price Indices in the Russian Federation in 1991–2022. Federal State Statistics Service. Federal State Statistics Service. URL: https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/ind_potreb_cen_05.html

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.125.2025.88-96

The problems of cartel agreements in the public procurement system are analyzed. The causes of cartel collusion and their impact on the economic security of the state are investigated. The system of factors determining the cartel agreement is presented, the author’s definition of the concept of cartel agreement is given.

References:

1. Official website of the Unified Information System in the Sphere of Procurement. URL: https://zakupki.gov.ru/epz/main/public/home.html

2. Official website of the Federal Antimonopoly Service. URL: https://fas.gov.ru/news/33767

3. Puzyrevsky S.A. Competition Law of Russia: Textbook. Moscow: Prospect, 2021. 640 p.

4. Kinev A.Yu. Cartels and Other Anticompetitive Agreements. Moscow; Berlin: Infotropic Media, 2011. 352 p.

5. Raizberg B.A. Modern Socioeconomic Dictionary. SPb: INFRA-M, 2009. 209 p.

6. Marshall R.C., & Marx L.M. The economics of collision: Cartels and bidding rings, Mit Press, 2012. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458370

7. Treaty of Amsterdam amending the Treaty on European Union, the Treaties establishing the European Communities and certain related acts, 10 November 1997, pp. 1–144. URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/treaty/ams/sign

DOI: 10.33917/mic-5.124.2025.86-93

The article examines the historical stages of the development of ideology in Russia, starting with the Christianization of Ancient Rus’ and ending with the formation of the modern state ideological model. Attention is paid to the role of religion, political concepts, foreign policy and economic factors in the formation of national identity. The work analyzes ideological concepts of different eras, reveals their continuity and transformations.

References:

1. Klyuchevsky V.O. Course in Russian History. Moscow: Mysl’, 2020. – 1153 p.

2. Kuznetsov V.N. Ideology of Russia’s Development. Moscow: Kniga i biznes, 2010. – 498 p.

3. Soloviev S.M. History of Russia from Ancient Times. St. Petersburg: Nauka, 2018. – 786 p.

4. Ilyin I.A. Essence and Uniqueness of Russian Culture. Moscow: Russkaya kniga – 21st Century, 2007. – 462 p.

5. Zhukotskaya A.V. Problemy Ideologii (Socio-Philosophical Analysis). Abstract of Cand. Sci. (Philosophy) Dissertation – 09.00.11. Moscow: Moscow State Pedagogical University, 2018. – 42 p. URL: http://irbis.gnpbu.ru/Aref_1998/Jukotskaya_A_V_1998.pdf

6. Chernikov M.V. About ideology Lessons of Marxism. Free thought. 2021. No. 1. pp. 21-27. URL: http://www.svom.info/entry/967-ob-ideoloii-uroki-marksizma/

7. National ideology of Russia. Project. M.: Pero Publishing House, 2023. – 64 p. URL: https://storage.strategy24.ru/files/project/202305/13575df9a6c33a69d94a1a558be135c9.pdf

8. Gulyga A.V. Russian idea and its creators. Moscow: EKSMO, 2003. – 448 p.

9. Kuznetsov V.N. Russian Ideology 21: An Experience of Sociological Research into the Formation of Russian Ideology of the 21st Century. Moscow: 2004. – 551 p.

10. Gobozov I.A. State and National Identity: Globalization or Internationalization? Moscow: Lenand, 2019. – 200 p.

11. Kuznetsov V.N. Sociology of Ideology: A Textbook. Moscow: University Book House, 2009. – 380 p.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.123.2025.111-117

The need to analyze the fundamental problems of the development of education in Russia in modern conditions necessitates the need to clarify the principles of the functioning of the national educational system and the methodological foundations for understanding the role of education in developing effective measures to ensure economic security and influence the development of Russian reality in the context of the transformation of the existing monopolar world order into a multipolar governance structure of world civilization.

References:

1. Anishchenko A.V., Faibusovich K.B. Financial sovereignty and financial security of Russia in the modern world: lessons of history. Questions of history. 2023; 2(1):118-127.

2. Worked according to European standards: how the Secret Chancellery protected Peter I and Russian sovereignty. URL: https://russian.rt.com/science/article/499360-rossia-300-let-taynaya-kancelyaria

3. Constitution of the RSFSR of 1918. Electronic museum of constitutional history of Russia. URL: http://rusconstitution.ru/term/44/

4. History of the collapse of the USSR. Prerequisites and main steps. URL: https://tass.ru/info/13298931

5. Law of the RSFSR of 31.10.1990 No. 293-1 «On Ensuring the Economic Basis for the Sovereignty of the RSFSR». URL: http://www.consultant.ru/

6. Law of the Russian Federation of 05.03.1992 No. 2446-1 «On Security». Vedomosti of the CIS and the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation. from 09.04.1992, No. 15, Art. 769.

7. Constitution of the Russian Federation (Adopted by popular vote on December 12, 1993, with amendments approved during the all-Russian vote on July 1, 2020). URL: http://pravo.gov.ru/proxy/ips/?docbody=&nd=102027595

8. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of 17.12.1997 No. 1300 On Approval of the Concept of National Security of the Russian Federation. URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_17186/

9. Memories of Grand Duke Alexander Mikhailovich: two books in one volume. 2nd ed., corrected. Moscow: 2001. 524 p. ISBN 5-8159-0023-0.

10. Federal Law of 28.12.2010 No. 390-FZ «On Security». URL: https://base.garant.ru/12181538/

11. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of 02.07.2021 No. 400 «On the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation». URL: https://base.garant.ru/401425792/

12. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of 28.02.2024 No. 145 «On the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation». URL: https://base.garant.ru/408618353/

DOI: 10.33917/mic-4.123.2025.106-110

There are currently many problems in forestry, including deep-rooted problems in the form of illegal logging, corruption in the division of forest resources and the growth of organized crime. Regions where logging is almost the only source of livelihood for the population are particularly susceptible to these problems. The perception of forest resources as simple raw materials that bring quick profits, rather than as a valuable ecosystem that creates a climate balance, leads to negative consequences leading to the depletion of national wealth. The existing methods of assessing the level of the shadow economy of forestry cannot provide a comprehensive picture, as well as determine the indicators that most affect latent crimes in the field of forestry. The authors propose a methodology for determining the shadow economy of forestry, followed by strategic measures to improve the economic security of forestry.

References:

1. Brief edition of «Russkaya Pravda». Russian legislation of the 10th-20th centuries. Vol. 1. Moscow, 1984.  p. 38.

2. Kuramshin V.Ya. Brief history of forestry in Russia. Forest Bulletin. 2019;2:50-52.

3. Criminal Code of the Russian Federation of 13.06.1996 No. 63-FZ (as amended on 27.12.2019). URL: https://base.garant.ru/10108000/

4. Forest Code of the Russian Federation of 04.12.2006 No. 200-FZ (as amended on 04.08.2023 Federal Law No. 486). URL: https://base.garant.ru/12150845/

5. Konstantinov A.V. Subject – object structure of economic security in the forestry sector of the economy. Socio-economic phenomena and processes. 2025;10(5):30-35.

6. Myasnikov D.A. Tools and methods for determining the scale of the shadow economy in the forestry complex: Abstract of Cand. Sci. (Econ.) Dissertation. Irkutsk, 2009. 23 p.

7. Tolpyshev G.V. Economic formats for identifying latent crimes in the activities of forestry organizations. Abstract of Cand. Sci. (Econ.) Dissertation. Perm, 2020. 23 p.

8. Pinaev I.Yu., Svetlakov A.G. Methodological approaches to determining the level of the shadow economy in forestry. Microeconomics. 2025;1(120):86-91.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.120.2025.44-55

Illegal deforestation is a consequence of socio-economic relations, especially in regions where logging is the main source of income. Forests in such regions are perceived only as raw materials, which leads to negative consequences leading to the loss of national wealth. Specific assessment methods for different industries and sectors of the economy lead to a lack of a unified approach, which creates difficulties in analyzing and combating the shadow economy. The level of criminalization in the field of logging can be assessed by various methods. The authors have modernized and changed the formulas for assessing the level of criminalization of forestry to meet modern realities with a significant reduction in error.

References:

1. Myasnikov D.A. Mechanism for assessing the level of the shadow economy in the forestry complex. Izvestiya IGEA. 2008;5:39-42.

2. Antoshchenko A.V. Analysis of the causes and conditions for committing crimes in the forestry complex (on the example of Primorsky Krai). Contentus. 2020;1:164-189.

3. Botasheva L.Kh. Identification and assessment of the shadow economy. Economy. Taxes. Law. 2018;11(5):28-37.

4. Putyakova P. Shades of gray. The share of the shadow economy in the Perm Territory will grow. URL: https://www.newsko.ru/articles/

5. EMISS. URL: https://www.fedstat.ru/indicator/

6. Report of representatives of the Ministry of Natural Resources of the Perm Territory. URL: https://priroda.permkrai.ru/

7. Statistical analysis of the forestry complex of Russia. URL: https://prepod24.ru/readyworks/235163/?ysclid=lq5l8jrxlb198424445

8. Strengthening the fight against illegal timber trafficking was discussed in the Kama region, 2022. URL: https://priroda.permkrai.ru/novosti/

9. Petrov V.N., Katkova T.E., Karvinen S. Trends in the development of the forest economy in Russia and Finland. Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast. 2019;12(3):140-157.

10. Tolpyshev G.V. Methodological tools for assessing the level of criminalization in the forestry sector / G. V. Tolpyshev, A. G. Svetlakov. Perm Agrarian Bulletin. 2017;1 (17):151-156.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-1.120.2025.29-43

The article reveals and classifies such concepts as economic security of an enterprise, a crisis management. The main tools for diagnosing crisis phenomena are described in order to identify them early and reduce the impact on the company’s business activities. Special attention is paid to the description and the possibility of applying the Six Sigma concept for crisis management at the process level. Using the example of an enterprise manufacturing equipment for the electric power industry, the application of the Six Sigma concept in the procurement management process is considered. The results of calculating the process quality indicator (σ) are presented, measures for its optimization are proposed, and the economic efficiency of implementing measures is determined.

References:

1. GOST R ISO 13053-1-2015 Quantitative methods for improving Six Sigma processes of the year. Federal Agency for Technical Regulation and Metrology. Moscow: Standartinform, 2016. URL: https://www.rst.gov.ru/portal/gost/

2. Report of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs on the state of the business climate in 2023. Moscow, 2024. URL: https://rspp.ru/activity/analytics

3. Akberdina V.V. Comprehensive tools for assessing the economic security of economic sectors: regional aspect / V.V. Akberdina, A.V. Grebenkin, O.P. Smirnova. The economy of the region. 2017;13(4):1264-1279.

4. Bezdenezhnykh T.I. Economic security in scientific research of modern foreign authors / T. I. Bezdenezhnykh, E. V. Pecheritsa, E. E. Sharafanova. Technical and technological problems of the service. 2021;3(57):69-74.

5. Bratyakov A.A. On the definition of the concept of «Economic security of an enterprise» in modern Russian science. Scientific research in the modern world: experience, problems and prospects of development: A collection of articles based on the materials of the international scientific and practical conference. Part 1. Ufa: Bulletin of Science, 2019. pp. 161-167.

6. Volkova M.N. Functional directions of the enterprise security service / M.N. Volkova, D.S. Ivannikov. Socio-economic sciences and humanitarian studies. 2015;4:144-147.

7. Gorbachev D.V. An integrated approach to the organization of the economic security service of an enterprise / D. V. Gorbachev, M. V. Kononova. Intelligence. Innovation. Investment. 2013;S:165-170.

8. Gradov A.P., Kuzin B.I., Fedotov A.V. [et al.]. Strategy and tactics of anti–crisis management of the company. St. Petersburg: SpetsLit, 1996. 511 p.

9. Dolzhenko R.A. The essence and evaluation of the effectiveness of the use of optimization technologies «Lin» and «Six Sigma». Bulletin of Omsk University. Series: Economics. 2014;1:25-33.

10. Dyakov S.A., Gorbenko E.A., Zhivitsyna Yu.A., Plyasovitsa I.A. Anti-crisis management as a mechanism for ensuring economic security of an enterprise. Bulletin of the Academy of Knowledge. 2023;2(55):426-431.

11. Endovitskaya A.V., Volkova T.A., Baliashvili D.U. Theoretical and methodological approaches to determining the essence of economic security of an enterprise and its assessment. Modern economy: problems and solutions. 2014;10 (58):62-68.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-6.119.2024.94-103

The article examines the global trend of «reloading» national industrial strategies in the context of recent geopolitical and geoeconomic challenges. We describe the countries’ transition from priorities of economic efficiency to dominant priorities of economic security and their course towards achieving technological sovereignty (self-sufficiency) as its central component. We analyze this course in the leading world economies (EU, USA, China), as well as the risks for its successful implementation. Special attention is paid to a similar Russian course – the only alternative under the sanctions pressure. We find that in all types of economies, including Russia, achieving technological sovereignty may be a more difficult task than governments expect, and that the accumulation of inefficiencies from fragmentation of the global economy into blocs will eventually force countries to return to greater economic openness.

References:

1. Smorodinskaya N.V. Globalized economy: From hierarchies to a network order. Moscow: Institute of Economics RAS, 2015. 344 p.

2. Aiginger K., Ketels C. Industrial policy reloaded. Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade. 2024;24:7.

3. Evenett S., Jakubik A., Martín F., Ruta M. The return of industrial policy in data. The World Economy. 2024;47 (7):2762–2788.

4. Smorodinskaya N.V., Katukov D.D. Moving towards technological sovereignty: a new global trend and the Russian specifics. Baltic Region. 2024;16 (3):108–135.

5. Morgan T.C., Syropoulos C., Yotov Y.V. Economic sanctions: Evolution, consequences, and challenges. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2023;37 (1):3–29.

6. Cha V.D. Collective resilience: Deterring China’s weaponization of economic interdependence. International Security. 2023;48 (1):91–124.

7. Tung R.L., Zander I., Fang T. The Tech Cold War, the multipolarization of the world economy, and IB research. International Business Review. 2023;32 (6):102195.

8. Aiyar S., Ilyina A., Chen J., Kangur A., Trevino J., Ebeke C., Gudmundsson T., Soderberg G., Schulze T., 
Kunaratskul T., Ruta M., Garcia-Saltos R., Rodriguez S. Geoeconomic fragmentation and the future of multilateralism. IMF Staff Discussion Notes, 2023. 42 p.

9. Stępka M. Identifying security logics in the EU policy discourse. Cham: Springer, 2022.

10.Drezner D.W. Global economic sanctions. Annual Review of Political Science. 2024;27 (1):9–24.

11.  Afontsev S.A. Theoretical dimensions of economic sovereignty. Journal of the New Economic Association. 2024; (3):218–224.

12. Goodman M.P. Policymaking is all about trade-offs. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies. URL: https://www.cfr.org/article/policymaking-all-about-trade-offs

13. Edler J., Blind K., Kroll H., Schubert T. Technology sovereignty as an emerging frame for innovation policy: Defining rationales, ends and means. Research Policy. 2023;52 (6):104765.

14. Mazzucato M. Mission economy: A moonshot guide to changing capitalism. London: Allen Lane, 2021.

DOI: 10.33917/es-4.196.2024.74-81

The article examines the issues of stimulating the Russian economy through mechanism for implementing megaprojects, assesses the implementation risks and provides recommendations for providing economic security of the Russian Federation in the context of the current GDP structure.

References:

1. Rasporyazhenie Pravitel’stva RF ot 20 maya 2023 g. N 1315-r “Ob utverzhdenii Kontseptsii tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya na period do 2030 goda” [Order of the Government of the Russian Federation of May 20, 2023 No. 1315-r “On Approval of the Concept of Technological Development for the Period up to 2030”]. Kodeks, available at: https://docs.cntd.ru/document/1301657597#6580IP

2. Plenarnoe zasedanie Evraziyskogo ekonomicheskogo foruma [Plenary Session of the Eurasian Economic Forum]. Ofitsial’noe internet-predstavitel’stvo prezidenta Rossii, 2023, 24 maya, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71198

3. Ukaz Prezidenta RF ot 28 fevralya 2024 g. N 145 “O Strategii nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya Rossiyskoy Federatsii” [Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of February 28, 2024 No. 145 “On the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation”]. Ofitsial’nyy internet-portal pravovoy informatsii, available at: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/0001202402280003?index=2

4. Morunov V.V. Teoreticheskie podkhody k opredeleniyu sushchnosti ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti [Theoretical Approaches to Defining the Essence of Economic Security]. VEPS. 2011. № 4. URL: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/teoreticheskie-podhody-k-opredeleniyu-suschnosti-ekonomicheskoy-bezopasnosti

5. Radygin A.D., Entov R.M., Abramov A.E., Chernova M.I., Mal’ginov G.N. Privatizatsiya 30 let spustya: masshtaby i effektivnost’ gosudarstvennogo sektora [Privatization 30 Years Later: The Scale and Efficiency of the Public Sector]. Moscow, ID “Delo” RANKhiGS. 2019. URL: https://ipei.ranepa.ru/ru/kgu

6. Likholetov V.V. Strategicheskie aspekty ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti [Strategic Aspects of Economic Security]. Obrazovatel’naya platforma “Yurayt”, 2023, 201, available at: https://urait.ru/bcode/519502

7. Vlasti obsudili vvod garantirovannogo dokhoda dlya investorov v megaproekty. Gosudarstvo mozhet obespechit’ im khedzhirovanie riskov [Authorities Discussed the Introduction of a Guaranteed Income for Investors in Megaprojects. The State can Provide them with Risk Hedging]. RBK, 2023, 26 oktyabrya, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/26/10/2023/653900cc9a7947b40010637f?from=copy

8. Bezbozhnova E.A. Ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost’ gosudarstva v kontekste tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya [Economic Security of the State in the Context of Technological Development]. Ekonomika i sovremennyy menedzhment: teoriya, metodologiya, praktika. Penza, Nauka i Prosveshchenie, 2022, pp. 139–141.

9. Karavaeva I.V. Natsional’naya ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost’ v teoreticheskikh issledovaniyakh Instituta ekonomiki RAN [National Economic Security in Theoretical Research of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences]. Vestnik Instituta ekonomiki Rossiyskoy akademii nauk, 2020, no 2, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/natsionalnaya-ekonomicheskaya-bezopasnost-v-teoreticheskih-issledovaniyah-instituta-ekonomiki-ran

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.116.2024.90-98

The paper examines the role, place and importance of the state Russian language in the political and legal mechanism of ensuring the security of the Russian Federation. Russia is mainly focused on the problem of the implementation in practice of the policy of the Russian Federation in the field of the state Russian language and the need to take effective measures to neutralize the mechanism of destruction of the Russian language.

References:

1. Anishchenko V.N. On the modern theory and methodology of the study of the country’s security problems. Bulletin of the Academy of Economic Security of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. 2009;4:8-12. (In Russ.).

2. Ginzburg V. Emergency of emergency scale. RBC, 2008. The final issue.

3. Dvornikov V.A. Economic security – theory and reality of threats. M.: Publishing House of the Russian Academy of Social Sciences, 2000.

4. Doronin A.I. Business intelligence. 5th ed., reprint. and additional. M.: Axis-89, 2010. 704 p.

5. The draft law on the restriction of the use of foreign words in the public sphere. URL: https://tass.ru /

6. Decree of the President of the Russian Federation dated 07/02/2021 No. 400 «On the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation». URL: http://www.pravo.gov.ru

7. Federal Law No. 52-FZ dated February 28, 2023 «On Amendments to the Federal Law “On the State Language of the Russian Federation”». URL: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru

8. Federal Law No. 53-FZ of June 1, 2005 «On the State Language of the Russian Federation» (Collection of Legislation of the Russian Federation, 2005, No. 23, Article 2199; 2013, No. 27, Article 3477; 2014, No. 19, Article 2306).

9. Hammer L. Large Nuclear Collider. RBC, 2008. The final issue.