The "Economic Strategies" journal

#5. 2025. The War. Was. Tomorrow




Outlines of a New Methodology of Thinking and Management: Synergetic Approach (Cyclic-Vortex Hierarchies in the Concept of Meta-Management

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.96-103

The article examines problematic issues related to developing post-non-classical methodology of thinking and management within the framework of the synergetic approach concept (all its modifications – synergetics 1, 2, 3). According to the authors, this approach includes characteristics of all the main approaches to management (systemic, in the form of managing dissipative systems, process-oriented, in the form of managing self-organization processes, and situational one, in the form of managing open/non-closed systems). The author’s version of the methodology is based on the evolutionary-constructive model of postnon- classical knowledge development by V.S. Stepin, which includes the focuses on “object”, “means” and “subject”. In the article methodology is understood in its classical sense as “a system of principles and methods for organizing and constructing theoretical and practical activities”. Methodology version, developed by the authors, includes several concepts combined into a single system of knowledge and technologies used in the form of cognitive and communicative actions of management subjects while developing and implementing solutions for a specific problem situation. The authors provide a brief description of meta-management/M-management concept and separate concepts characterizing various focuses of the model by V.S. Stepin. An extended description of the concept of cyclo-vortex hierarchies is proposed.

References:

1. Arshinov V.I., Budanov V.G. Soznanie i osoznanie v sinergetike: Sinergetika na rubezhe XX–XXI vv. [Consciousness and Awareness in Synergetics: Synergetics at the Turn of the 20th–21st Centuries]. Moscow, 2006, pp. 55–73.

2. Mayntser K. Slozhnosistemnoe myshlenie: Materiya, razum, chelovechestvo. Novyy sintez [Thinking in Complexity: The Computational Dynamics of Matter, Mind and Mankind]. Moscow, Librokom, 2009. 464 p.

3. Stepin V.S. Teoreticheskoe znanie: Struktura, istoricheskaya evolyutsiya [Theoretical Knowledge: Structure, Historical Evolution]. Moscow, Progress-Traditsiya, 2003, 743 p.

4. Chernavskiy D.S. Sinergetika i informatsiya: Dinamicheskaya teoriya informatsii [Synergetics and Information: Dynamic Information Theory]. Moscow, Nauka, 2001, 244 p.

5. Chernavskiy D.S. Metodologicheskie osnovy sinergetiki i ee primeneniya. Metodologicheskie osnovy sinergetiki i ee sotsial’nye applikatsii: Materialy nauchnogo seminara [Methodological Foundations of Synergetics and Its Applications. Methodological Foundations of Synergetics and Its Social Applications: Proceedings of a Scientific Seminar]. Vyp. 1. Moscow, Nauchnyy ekspert, 2010, pp. 6–29.

6. Shevyrev A.V., Mikheev V.A., Shalamova N.G., Fedotova M.A. Sistemnaya analitika v upravlenii. Vvedenie v nauchno-issledovatel’skuyu programmu [Systems Analytics in Management: An Introduction to the Research Program]. Belgorod, LitKaraVan, 2016.

7. Budanov V.G. Upravlenie chelovekomernymi sistemami i metodologiya sinergetiki: Filosofiya upravleniya: problemy i strategii [Management of Human-Dimensional Systems and the Methodology of Synergetics: Management Philosophy: Problems and Strategies]. Moscow, IF RAN, 2010, pp. 89–112.

Specifics of State Planning of Economic Sectors in the Far Eastern Federal District

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.86-91

The article examines special features of state planning for economic sectors in the Far Eastern Federal District based on forecasting the socio-economic development of the regions which constitute it. Factors determining the general principles of forecasting economic development up to 2030 are analyzed. The characteristics of macro-region include migration and natural decline, territorial disintegration and low transport connectivity of the regions. Active use of economic (preferential) regimes requires special attention to forecasting shortfall in revenues of the Russian Federation’s budget system and to assessing the positive effect on economic sectors. It is concluded that general approach to the economic development of the Russian Far East macro-region could be a sustainable development model based on a set of balanced indicators characterizing the overall development of the economy and settlement system within the boundaries of existing and prospective cities and rural areas.

References:

1. Demograficheskaya kharakteristika Dal’nevostochnogo federal’nogo okruga — 2023 [Demographic Characteristics of the Far Eastern Federal District — 2023]. FANU “Vostokgosplan”, available at: https://vostokgosplan.ru/wp-content/uploads/demograficheskaja-harakteristika-dfo.pdf

2. Prokapalo O.M., Bardal’ A.B., Mazitova M.G., Suslov D.V. Ekonomicheskaya kon”yunktura v Dal’nevostochnom federal’nom okruge v 2021 g. [Economic Situation in the Far Eastern Federal District in 2021]. Prostranstvennaya ekonomika, 2022, vol. 18, no 2, pp. 135–182, available at: https://dx.doi.org/10.14530/se.2022.2.135-182

3. Zhurakovskiy V., Novopashina A., Grishin D., Bulyga Ye. Polustrukturnaya model’ ekonomiki Dal’nevostochnogo makroregiona [Semi-structural Model of the Economy of the Far Eastern Macroregion]. TSB RF. Seriya dokladov ob ekonomicheskikh issledovaniyakh, 2024, no 127 (fevral’), available at: https://cbr.ru/StaticHtml/File/158679/wp_127.pdf

4. Bukhonova N.M., Manukovskiy R.I., Yakovlev A.V. Statisticheskaya otsenka ekonomicheskogo potentsiala na osnove mnozhestvennogo regressionnogo analiza [Statistical Assessment of Economic Potential Based on Multiple Regression Analysis]. Sovremennaya ekonomika: problemy i resheniya, 2020, no 7, pp. 25–36, DOI: https://doi.org/10.17308/meps.2020.7/2394

5. Andreev V.A. Determinanty migratsionnoy aktivnosti v kontekste vospriyatiya naseleniem Primorskogo kraya urovnya sotsial’nogo blagopoluchiya [Determinants of Migration Activity in the Context of the Perception of the Level of Social well-being by the Population of Primorsky Krai]. Territoriya novykh vozmozhnostey. Vestnik Vladivostokskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta ekonomiki i servisa, 2020, vol. 12, no 2, pp. 7–18, DOI 10.24866/VVSU/2073-3984/2020-2/007-018

6. Osnovnye rezul’taty prognozirovaniya sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Dal’nevostochnogo federal’nogo okruga 2030 g. [Main Results of Forecasting the Socio-economic Development of the Far Eastern Federal District in 2030]. FANU “Vostokgosplan”, available at: https://vostokgosplan.ru/wp-content/uploads/osnovnye-rezultaty-prognozirovanija-socialno-jekonomicheskogo-razvitija-dalnevostochnogo-federalnogo-okruga-2030.pdf

Role of Industrial Policy Measures in Stimulating Creation of High-Tech Bearings Production in the Russian Federation

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.74-85

This article examines a successful case of localizing production of tapered axlebox bearings for innovative railway wagons in Russia. The above project was implemented in conditions of high dependence on foreign supplies and restrictions related to international sanctions. The author analyzes in detail economic, technological and organizational aspects of the project, implemented with active government support through a mechanism of special investment contract (SPIC 2.0). The importance of comprehensive industrial policy measures, including tax incentives, financing through the Industrial Development Fund and regulatory support in the context of sanctions pressure is demonstrated. Project implementation resulted in 100% localization of a critical component of railway engineering, providing technological sovereignty, maintaining sustainability of the rail transport and creating production infrastructure of a new technological level. The present case confirms effectiveness of interaction between the government, business and key consumers in implementing strategically significant industrial initiatives.

References:

1. Rasporyazhenie Pravitel’stva RF ot 20 aprelya 2024 g. N 981 [Order of the Government of the Russian Federation dated April 20, 2024 No. 981]. Garant, available at: https://base.garant.ru/408964851/

2. Uralvagonzavod: Deyatel’nost’ [Uralvagonzavod: Activities]. RUVIKI, available at: https://ru.ruwiki.ru/wiki/Уралвагонзавод

3. Proizvodstvo magistral’nykh gruzovykh vagonov v RF v 2012 g. vyroslo na 13,3% [Production of Mainline Freight Cars in the Russian Federation Increased by 13.3% in 2012]. RZhD-Partner.ru, 2013, 25 yanvarya, available at: https://www.rzd-partner.ru/zhd-transport/news/proizvodstvo-magistral%27nykhgruzovykh-vagonov-v-rf-v-2012-g—vyroslo-na-13-3/?ysclid=maxxsokfg5747409299

4. Postanovlenie Pravitel’stva RF ot 17 iyulya 2015 g. N 719 (red. ot 23 dekabrya 2024 g.) “O podtverzhdenii proizvodstva rossiyskoy promyshlennoy produktsii” [Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of July 17, 2015 No. 719 (as amended on December 23, 2024) “On confirmation of the production of Russian industrial products”]. Konsul’tantPlyuc, available at: http://login.consultant.ru/link/?req=doc&base=LAW&n=494410&dst=100001&date= 10.01.2025

5. Shulepov A.A. Podshipnikovaya otrasl’ v RF: tekushchee sostoyanie i perspektivy [Bearing Industry in the Russian Federation: Current State and Prospects]. Innovatsii i investitsii, 2024, no 7, pp. 359–364.

6. Postanovlenie ot 23 marta 2021 g. N 446 “O vnesenii izmeneniy v prilozhenie k postanovleniyu Pravitel’stva Rossiyskoy Federatsii ot 17 iyulya 2015 g. N 719” (s izm. i dop.) [Resolution of March 23, 2021 No. 446 “On Amendments to the Appendix to the Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation of July 17, 2015 No. 719”]. Garant, available at: ht tps://base.garant.ru/400494581/

Methodological Issues of Risk Assessment in Large Investment Projects. Part 2

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.64-73

The article substantiates a working toolkit for assessing the risks of implementing alternative projects aimed at creation and production of supersonic passenger aircraft in Russia based on the SWOT analysis techniques. The authors propose a methodological approach to formalizing definition of the competition intensity between manufacturers, as well as the degree of suppliers’ and buyers’ influence on them (developing the conceptual provisions of M. Porter’s five forces of competition model) based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. Primary matrix is constructed. Contribution of each factor to the overall integral result is calculated using the modified method of analyzing the internal and external environment profiles, proposed by the authors. The main factors of the project’s effectiveness and threats to its successful completion are identified. Preliminary assessment of the potential need of Russian aviation companies for supersonic aircraft designed for passenger transportation in the Far Eastern Federal District is given.

References:

[1-14] See in no. 4/2025. p. 137.

15. Pukhov A.A., Kolpakov S.K. Uroven’ gotovnosti tekhnologiy zarubezhnykh proektov sverkhzvukovykh grazhdanskikh samoletov novogo pokoleniya [The Level of Readiness of Technologies of Foreign Projects of Supersonic Civil Aircraft of the New Generation]. TVF (Tekhnika vozdushnogo flota), 2023, no 2, pp. 7–28.

16. Matchenko O.V. V razrabotke sverkhzvukovogo passazhirskogo samoleta my mozhem operedit’ Zapad [We Can Get Ahead of the West in Developing a Supersonic Passenger Aircraft]. MashNews. 2023, 29 maya, available at: https://mashnews.ru/v-razrabotke-sverxzvukovogo-passazhirskogo-samolyota-myimozhem-operedit-zapadnyix-konkurentov-chlen-korrespondent-ran-kirill-syipalo.html

17. Amirdzhanyan M. Pervyy v RF sverkhzvukovoy grazhdanskiy samolet mozhet byt’ sproektirovan za sem’-vosem’ let [The First Supersonic Civil Aircraft in Russia Could be Designed in Seven to Eight Years]. TASS, 2018, 29 yanvarya, available at: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/4911172

18. Kramnik I. Illyuziya vozmozhnostey: zachem nuzhen sverkhzvukovoy passazhirskiy samolet [The Illusion of Possibilities: Why We Need a Supersonic Passenger Jet]. Izvestiya, 2019, 19 fevralya.

19. Samofalova O. Ambitsioznyy proekt novogo sverkhzvukovogo avialaynera obrechen na proval [Ambitious New Supersonic Airliner Project Doomed to Failure]. Vzglyad, 2019, 1 fevralya, available at: https://vz.ru/economy/2019/2/1/962052.html

20. Sidnyaev N.I. Perspektivy razvitiya sovremennykh sverkhzvukovykh passazhirskikh samoletov [Prospects for the Development of Modern Supersonic Passenger Aircraft]. Inzhenernyy zhurnal: nauka i innovatsii, 2023, no 1, pp. 1–31.

21. Shchennikov V.S. Perspektivy razrabotki sverkhzvukovykh passazhirskikh samoletov [Prospects for the Development of Supersonic Passenger Aircraft]. Vestnik ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti, 2018, no 2, pp. 369–373.

22. FAA nastraivaet sverkhzvuk pod sebya [FAA Tweaks Supersonics to Suit Its Needs]. Aeronautica.online, 2019, 23 iyunya, available at: https://aeronautica.online/faa-announces-upcoming -rulemakings — civil- supersonic-flight

Is Poverty Eradicable? Concept of Natural Poverty

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.58-63

The problem of poverty remains one of the most significant in the national and global economies. Today the effectiveness of fighting it is in question, as well as the feasibility of achieving poverty eradication goals. The present study aims to discover whether poverty can be eradicated and, in case of impossibility — to assess the level to which poverty can be reduced. The article proves the impossibility of overcoming poverty not “on paper”, whether it’s absolute, relative or deprivation poverty. In any case, there is always a portion of poor population that, either by their own choice or as a result of destructive or irrational behaviour, doesn’t leave the state of poverty. It is proposed to classify this part of the population as natural poverty. Based on analysis of a number of destructive habits, inherent in individuals unable to escape poverty, it is proved that they possess at least three of the six deviations from socially accepted behaviour studied. The author examines the level of natural poverty in Russia, to this end a method for estimating the level of natural poverty, based on probabilistic approach, is developed. It is revealed that natural poverty in the Russian Federation is declining, especially during periods of crisis, which demonstrates gradual recovery of Russian society.

References:

1. Atkinson A.B. Measuring Poverty around the World. London, Princeton University Press, 2019, 464 p.

2. Belopashentseva P.V. Chto govorit o rossiyskoy bednosti deprivatsionnyy podkhod? [What does the Deprivation Approach Say about Russian Poverty?]. Monitoring obshchestvennogo mneniya: ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny, 2022, no 4, pp. 110–129.

3. Perskaya V.V. Perekhod k mnogopolyarnosti: polya srazheniy ili pozitsionnoe protivostoyanie? [Transition to Multipolarity: Battlefields or Positional Opposition?]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2019, no 1, pp. 62–69.

4. Tsel’ 1: Povsemestnaya likvidatsiya nishchety vo vsekh ee formakh [Goal 1: End Poverty in All its Forms Everywhere]. OON, available at: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/ru/poverty/

5. Poverty and Inequity Platform. PIP. The World Bank, available at: https://pip.worldbank.org/home

6. Kashnikova T.V. Fenomen bednosti i ego strukturno-funktsional’nye kharakteristiki [The Phenomenon of Poverty and its Structural and Functional Characteristics]. Gosudarstvennoe i munitsipal’noe upravlenie. Uchenye zapiski, 2021, no 3, pp. 70–74.

7. Rethinking Poverty. Report on the World Social Situation 2010, available at: https://www.un.org/esa/socdev/rwss/docs/2010/fullreport.pdf

8. Ravallion M., Chen S. Global poverty measurement when relative income matters. Journal of Public Economics, 2019, no 177, pp. 104046.

9. Hickel J., Dorninger C., Wieland H., Suwandi I. Imperialist appropriation in the world economy: Drain from the global South through unequal exchange, 1990–2015. Global Environmental Change, 2022, no 73, pp. 102467.

Improving Institutional Mechanisms of Innovative Economic Growth

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.52-57

The article examines conceptual foundations and practical aspects of improving institutional mechanisms aimed at strengthening the innovative component of economic growth and creating favourable conditions for a long-term increase of the profit rate in high-tech industries.

References:

1. Marks K. Kapital. Kritika politicheskoy ekonomii. T. 1. Protsess proizvodstva kapitala [Capital. Critique of Political Economy. Vol. 1. The Process of Capital Production]. Translated from German. Moscow, Politizdat, 1960, 784 ps.

2. Smit A. Issledovanie o prirode i prichinakh bogatstva narodov [An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations]. Translated from English. Moscow, Eksmo, 2007, 960 p.

3. Isterli V. V poiskakh rosta: Priklyucheniya i zloklyucheniya ekonomistov v tropikakh [In Search of Growth: The Adventures and Misadventures of Economists in the Tropics]. Translated from English. Moscow, Institut kompleksnykh strategicheskikh issledovaniy, 2006, 360 p.

4. Dement’ev V.V., Shcherbakov A.P. Pribyl’ i ekonomicheskiy rost [Profit and Economic Growth]. Terra Economicus, 2017, vol. 15, no 3, pp. 75–91.

5. Keyns Dzh. M. Obshchaya teoriya zanyatosti, protsenta i deneg [The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money]. Translated from English. Moscow, Gelios ARV, 2011, 352 p.

6. Shumpeter Y.A. Teoriya ekonomicheskogo razvitiya: issledovanie predprinimatel’skoy pribyli, kapitala, kredita, protsenta i tsikla kon”yunktury [Theory of Economic Development: A Study of Entrepreneurial Profit, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle]. Translated from German. Moscow, Progress, 1982, 455 p.

7. Nort D. Instituty, institutsional’nye izmeneniya i funktsionirovanie ekonomiki [Institutions, Institutional Change and the Functioning of the Economy]. Translated from English. Moscow, Fond ekonomicheskoy knigi “Nachala”, 1997, 180 p.

8. Nayt F.Kh. Risk, neopredelennost’ i pribyl’ [Risk, Uncertainty and Reward]. Translated from English. Moscow, Delo, 2003, 360 p.

Economic Development of Russia: Challenges, Historical Traditions and Strategies

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.44-51

The article examines options for recovery of the Russian economy, its civilizational role in relation to continuit y of the advanced thought and Russian society’s traditions, associated with moral purification, freedom and social justice, universally significant spiritual values, ideals of humanism and patriotism, characteristic of Russian economic life. It is proposed to consider consumer-value relations as an alternative paradigm of socio-economic development, which may well meet the requirements of a sovereign route, focusing on spiritual-moral foundations and values. The author notes that consumervalue relations take into account a historic unique character of the national economic system. Proposed methodological approach can serve as a starting point for the national liberation of modern Russia both from the shackles of capitalist orders and from injustice towards a human being.

References:

1. Dementyev V.V., Scherbakov A.P. Profit and Economic Growth. Terra economicus, 2017, vol. 15, no 3, pp. 75–91.

2. Makarova I.V. Sistema prioritetov razvitiya Rossii [The System of Priorities for the Development of Russia]. Nauchno-analiticheskiy zhurnal “Aktual’nye problemy sotsial’no-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii”, 2014, no 1, pp. 57–60.

3. Dubrovskiy A.V. Razmyshleniya o strukturno-tekhnologicheskikh preobrazovaniyakh i liberal’nykh al’ternativakh ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Rossii [Reflections on Structural and Technological Transformations and Liberal Alternatives for Economic Development in Russia]. Ekonomika ustoychivogo razvitiya, 2020, no 2(42), pp. 82–87.

4. Lenchuk E.B., Filatov V.I. Rossiyskaya ekonomika: poisk effektivnoy strategii [Russian Economy: Search for an Effective Strategy]. Mir novoy ekonomiki, 2018, pp. 6–21.

5. Putin V.V. Zasedanie diskussionnogo kluba “Valday” [Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club]. Ofitsial’nyy sayt Prezidenta RF, available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75521

6. Dubrovskiy A.V. Formirovanie sovremennoy paradigmy ustoychivogo ekonomicheskogo razvitiya [Formation of a Modern Paradigm of Sustainable Economic Development]. Ekonomika i predprinimatel’stvo, 2020, no 3(116), pp. 872–877.

7. Shcherbakov V.N., Dubrovskiy A.V. Diskussionnye problemy tsennosti i stoimosti v otsenke ekonomicheskikh effektov [Controversial Issues of Value and Cost in Assessing Economic Effects]. Vestnik Altayskoy akademii ekonomiki i prava, 2024, no 5-2, pp. 353–357.

8. Pososhkov I.T. Kniga o skudosti i bogatstve [A Book about Pover ty and Wealth]. Moscow, Ekonomicheskaya gazeta, 2011, 415 p.

9. Sorokin D.E. O sposobnosti Rossii k sotsial’noekonomicheskim transformatsiyam [On Russia’s Ability to Undergo Socio-economic Transformations]. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii, 2019, no 1(59), pp. 23–28.

10. Amzhrdzhanyants F., Sis’kov V., Gubanov S., Ivanova N. Potrebitel’no-stoimostnaya sistema sotsialisticheskogo khozyaystvovaniya i obespecheniya kachestva produktsii [Consumer-cost System of Socialist Management and Quality Assurance of Products]. Moscow, Izd-vo standartov, 1990, 240 p.

On the Impact of the Key Rate and the Rouble Exchange Rate on Inflation

DOI: 10.33917/es-5.203.2025.40-43

From mid-2023 inflation began to rise sharply and was remaining high for a long time despite the Central Bank raising its key rate to a record high. The article examines the impact of key rate and rouble exchange rate on consumer price changes. It is concluded that in Russia the rouble exchange rate plays a more significant role in inflation dynamics than the key rate.

References:

1. Shirov A.A., Gusev M.S., Nekrasov F.O. Priroda inflyatsii v sovremennoy rossiyskoy ekonomike i ee vliyanie na ekonomicheskiy rost [The Nature of Inflation in the Modern Russian Economy and its Impact on Economic Growth]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2025, no 2, pp. 5–19.

2. Opros: pochti 60% rossiyan ne imeyut sberezheniy [Poll: Almost 60% of Russians have no Savings]. TASS, 2019, 16 sentyabrya, available at: https://tass.ru/ekonomika/6889653

3. Bol’shinstvo rossiyan okazalis’ bez sberezheniy v krizis [Most Russians Found Themselves without Savings During the Crisis]. RBK, 2020, 31 marta, available at: https://www.rbc.ru/economics/31/03/2020/5e7dd7c59a7947c7f63c1e66

4. Vakhitova G. Bolee poloviny rossiyskikh grazhdan ne imeyut sberezheniy [More than Half of Russian Citizens have no Savings]. Rossiyskaya gazeta, 2023, 16 yanvarya, available at: https://rg.ru/2023/01/16/suhoj-ostatok.html

5. Ershov M.V. Rossiyskaya ekonomika v usloviyakh novykh sanktsionnykh vyzovov [Russian Economy in the Context of New Sanction Challenges]. Voprosy ekonomiki, 2022, no 12, pp. 5–23.

6. Trinadtsat’ tezisov ob ekonomike. Etyud 11. Inflyatsiya: kratkiy obzor [Thirteen Theses on Economics. Study 11. Inflation: A Brief Overview]. Tsentr makroekonomicheskogo analiza i kratkosrochnogo prognozirovaniya, 2025, 14 iyulya, available at: http://www.forecast.ru/

7. O chem govoryat trendy: Makroekonomika i rynki [What the Trends Say: Macroeconomics and Markets]. Bank Rossii, 2025, no 1(76), available at: https://cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/55064/bulletin_25-01.pdf