Author page: Kirill Kulakov
The article provides a comprehensive structural analysis of ensuring stability for the territorial housing market in a turbulent economy on the example of the Penza region. The study was carried out in the following fields: structure of developers, volumes and dynamics of construction, the price range of new buildings. In addition, financial express analysis of the main developers in the region was carried out in order to identify their financial stability over the forecast horizon in the face of economic uncertainty. As a separate segment of the research, it is accepted to study dynamics of the main parameters of the mortgage territorial market as the main regulator of the housing market development. Formulated conclusions provide an opportunity to the subjects of the territorial housing market to form innovative individual corporate and government strategies of sustainable development for the short term in a turbulent economy.
1. Asaul A.N., Asaul M.A., Starinskii V.N., Shcherbina G.F. Analiz i prognozirovanie rynka [Analysis and Forecasting of the Market]. Moscow, Yurait, 2022, 296 p. (Vysshee obrazovanie).
2. Asaul A.N., Starinskii V.N., Mamedov Sh.M., Shcherbina G.F. Analiz i prognozirovanie rynochnoi kon”yunktury [Analysis and Forecasting of Market Conditions]. Saint-Petersburg, ANO “Institut problem ekonomicheskogo vozrozhdeniya”, 2018, 464 p.
3. Asaul A.N., Asaul M.A., Lyulin P.B., Chepachenko N.V. Trendy zhilishchnogo stroitel’stva v Rossii i srednesrochnyi prognoz [Housing Construction Trends in Russia and Medium-term Forecast]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2019, no 3, pp. 111–117.
4. Asaul A. N., Asaul M. A., Liulin P. B., Chepachenko N.V. Housing Construction in Russia: Trends and Medium-Range Forecasts. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2019, vol. 30, N 3, pp. 313–318, DOI 10.1134/S1075700719030055.
5. Baronin S.A., Kulakov K.Yu. Genezis upravleniya stoimost’yu kontraktov zhiznennogo tsikla ob”ekta kapital’nogo stroitel’stva i stoimosti vladeniya nedvizhimost’yu [Genesis of Managing the Cost of Life Cycle Contracts for a Capital Construction Object and the Cost of Real Estate Ownership]. Nedvizhimost’: ekonomika, upravlenie, 2020, no 1, pp. 10–14.
6. Baronin S.A., Kulakov K.Yu., Timofeev K. P. Teoriya i praktika upravleniya konkurentosposobnost’yu na pervichnykh zhilishchnykh rynkakh po segment kompanii-liderov [Theory and Practice of Managing Competitiveness in Primary Housing Markets in the Segment of Leading Companies]. Penza, Penzenskii gosudarstvennyi universitet arkhitektury i stroitel’stva, 2017, 156 p.
7. Baronin S., Kulakov K. Development of life cycle valuation with priority of national projects and energy efficiency. E3S Web of Conferences. Rostov-on-Don, October 20–23, 2020. Rostov-on-Don, 2020, p. 07006, DOI 10.1051/e3sconf/202021707006.
8. Buzyrev V.V., Selyutina L.G. Zhilishchnaya problema i puti ee resheniya v sovremennykh usloviyakh [Housing Problem and Ways of Its Solution in Modern Conditions]. Saint-Petersburg, Izd-vo Sankt-Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta, 2013, 335 p.
The article discusses particular features of the appraisal activities transformation in the Russian Federation, focused on the priority methodology in cost management of the appraisal objects’ life cycles as the basis for sustainable socio-economic development, especially in implementing national projects. The relevance of this study is based on the importance of solving such a national economic problem as providing the launch of innovative high-tech investment cycles in development of industries, enterprises and investment projects based on forming an updated methodological base for appraisal activities focused on long-term strategic cycles with planning horizon up to 60 years. Furthermore, as the main national evaluation ideology it is proposed to use the concept of formalizing evaluation and value management processes in economic systems, where the main object of assessment is the life cycle of goods, products and works, which are characterized by innovative, high-tech qualities of a breakthrough highly competitive type, as well as by the effect of emergence and synergy.
The aim of the present study is to elaborate a set of relevant search methodological proposals and recommendations for modeling the transformation processes of the national evaluation activity of Russia based on the priorities of cost evaluation and of the life cycles management of goods and works that can provide sustainable and breakthrough socio-economic development of the country on the long-term strategic basis with a planning horizon of up to 50-60 years, with a view to ensuring priority implementation of national projects.
The study is focused on the processes of genesis and transformation of national appraisal activity in the course of exploratory fundamental research in the field of modeling theoretical provisions and conceptual approaches to structuring methodological framework of evaluation and management of costs, life cycles of goods in the process of implementing national projects based on minimizing the cost of their life cycles, contracts on life cycles, total costs and life cycles’ cost of ownership.
Integrated and systemic approaches based on analysis and synthesis, logical analysis, expert approach, methods of economic and mathematical modeling and forecasting were used as research methods.
The article discusses the subject of research, focused on the study of the transformation processes of the valuation methodology, focused on the effective management of sustainable and breakthrough socio-economic development by ensuring the effective implementation of National projects using the results of the value management genesis in valuation activities based on the use of the concept of cost-based life cycle assessment The relevance of this study is determined by the importance of solving the national economic problem of the need to ensure the launch of innovative high-tech investment cycles for the development of industries, enterprises and investment projects based on the formation of an updated methodological base for valuation activities. Moreover, it is proposed to use the model of formalizing the processes of valuation and cost and cost management in economic systems based on the life cycles of goods, products and works as the main evaluative ideology. The aim of the study is to develop a set of relevant methodological proposals for modeling the concepts of valuation of life cycles in the valuation of Russia in order to ensure its transformation that is sufficient for cost management of sustainable and breakthrough socio-economic development of the country through ensuring the effective implementation of national projects. The object of the study is the development of theoretical principles and conceptual approaches for modeling the methodological foundations of valuing and managing the life cycles of goods and products in the process of implementing national projects based on minimizing the cost of their life cycles, life cycle contracts, total costs and the cost of ownership of life cycles. As applied research methods, a comprehensive approach was used, based on analysis and synthesis, logical analysis, expert approach, methods of economic and mathematical modeling and forecasting.
The importance of the formation and development of the life cycle cost assessment methodology in the Russian economy is determined by the need to supplement the practice of valuation activity with its new variety — assessment of the life cycles of goods, works, services or systems of a technical or production-economic nature. The analysis showed that in the valuation activity it is necessary to use not only traditional types of values, such as market, liquidation, investment and cadastral, but also a new type of value — life cycle assessment for total costs, estimation of cost of ownership, as well as assessment of the value of contracts for life cycles. The actualization of the life cycle value assessment as a special type of valuation activity is associated with the development of the global economic trend of managing goods based on their presentation as life cycles. Summing up the value of the goods in exchange with their value in use, it is possible at a certain period of ownership to obtain the integral value of the cost of the life cycle or cost of ownership. The aim of the study is to summarize the domestic experience and features of its development in relation to the use of the methodology for assessing the cost of life cycles as a special direction of valuation activity in the Russian economy, taking into account the review of foreign analysis in this area. The research methods were used in the form of a set of interrelated methodological approaches based on expert assessments, retrospective analysis, forecasting, comparative, cost and income assessment methodologies, economic and mathematical modeling, as well as logical, technical, economic and situational analysis. The article summarizes the results in the field of the genesis of valuation activity in the domestic economy regarding the cost modeling of life cycles, highlighting the main stages of their development. A review of the main existing methods for estimating total costs is given and their characteristics are given. Shown excursion assessment in a foreign economy. Debatable questions of the methodical modeling of the valuation of life cycles and life cycle contracts have been disassembled and highlighted
The article examines the subject of research, focused on the study of economic and organizational relations and processes associated with the management of the investment value of land for residential development of the territory at the stage of land development based on the application of public-private partnership models. The relevance of this problem is related to the importance of solving the goal of increasing the commissioning of housing according to the message of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly of 2018, which provides strategic plans for the transition from an average annual input of 80 to 120 million square meters. This is possible only through the use of economic tools for forecasting and managing the investment value of land. The purpose of the study is to develop conceptual theoretical and methodological and practical models for assessing and managing the investment value of land plots at the stage of land development in relation to housing construction with the priority of integrated development of territories on the basis of optimization of public-private partnership. As the applied research methods, a set of systemically interconnected methodological approaches based on the application of the theory of appraisal activity, economic and mathematical modeling, technical and economic, logical analysis, as well as the theory of risks, expert assessments, situational analysis and forecasting were used. The article shows both the author’s methodology and the results obtained that allow to simulate the management processes of the investment value of projects of the complex residential development of the territory to transfer it from negative to positive. Such management decisions are recommended to be carried out on the basis of the multivariate parameters of public-private partnership in relation to the performance of technical conditions, the volume of participation in social facilities, the transport and engineering infrastructure of construction. Ultimately, the article demonstrates the value of the completed studies both from the standpoint of the development of theory and methodology in the field of valuation theory applied to the category of “investment value”, and for the scientific and practical development of public-private partnership processes in the field of managing the increase in housing commissioning for corporate investment management and bodies of state and municipal management.
The investor and the developer can decide to participate in the complex residential development project only if the assessment of the investment value of such land plot shows its high economic attractiveness. As a methodological basis for calculating the investment value of a land plot for integrated residential development, it is proposed to use a revenue approach, and within it — the method of the proposed use of a land plot. The article suggests a technique for modeling the investment value of land plots for integrated residential development, which includes 12 stages. To implement this methodology at the level of corporate management of investors, developers and developers, and for the purposes of state municipal land management, an appropriate application algorithm has been proposed.
Improved methodology of state cadastral valuation, absence of frequent revision of its results in the future – one of the key components of developing investment strategies in real estate and construction markets. Kirill Y.Kulakov, the first deputy general director of the Center for Property Independent Expertise, a member of the Council on evaluation activities at the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, the MGSU professor, doctor of economic sciences, FRICS, in his interview with “ES” magazine told about these, as well as other large-scale legislative innovations in the sphere of assessment activities.
In his interview with the “ES” magazine Kirill Kulakov, the First Deputy General Director of “Center for Independent property expertise” (CIPE), doctor of economic sciences, MGSU professor told about the specific aspects of appraisal activities in Crimea. Special attention according to K. Kulakov should be paid to professional appraisers training system — it is necessary to develop new educational programs, “it’s requirement of time associated with legislation changes, with development of new methods, information technology”.