According to a number of leading Russian experts in the field of strategy designing and forecasting, in Ust-Kachka they managed to organize the work of the “factory of the new generation thought”. Combination of conceptual, strategic and event levels when considering, not only the predictive assembly by the PEST directions, but also joining into the matrix by the levels “World” – “Country” – “Region” allowed to provide a very high percentage of coincidences between forecast and the fact. Economic Strategies magazine considers it necessary to get acquainted its readers with the results of Ust-Kachka – 2018.
Author page: Dmitry Zolotarev
The article dwells on hypothesis of changing the “system assembly points” of the world space, put forward by the author in the course of the Ust-Kachka Strategic Community meeting for preparing a strategic scenario forecast in the PEST(M) format.
The article presents analysis results of medium-term economic cycles, calculated on the basis of statistical data of one of the regions of the Russian Federation. For analysis, the average cycles of Simon Kuznets (construction cycles), the small investment cycles of economic activity of Clement Juglar and short business cycles of Joseph Kitchin are taken. Bringing together the graphs of three cycles shows the convergence at the bottom point of three medium-term economic cycles in the period of 2019–2020. A conclusion is made about the need for investment growth in 2018. Also a graph is given with a large cycle of capital accumulation by Giovanni Arrighi, characterizing the cyclical change in the model of world development in connection with transition to a new dominant resource, as a result of which the country — the world leader — changes. Thus, according to J. Arrighi, the American cycle should be replaced by the Asian one, which is why 2018 is designated as the year of beginning of the active phase of the US struggle to maintain its domination. According to the authors, realization of J. Arrighi’s cycle took place meanwhile the center of the world’s money emission was moving following the center of world commodity production. It is concluded that the considered cyclicity will be the background for pursuing the economic policy in the regions of Russia, but will not determine it.
The article suggests a scenario hypothesis of using geofinans in the format of crypto currency as one of the mechanisms for restructuring the economic space. The paper considers the process of transition from network self-organization to hierarchies with direct inclusion of professional and microterritorial economies, localized through crypto-currencies, into super-large international structures.
PEST can be regarded as a high-quality analog of a quantitative mathematical model used, for example, in the budgeting process. Calculations presume a variation of some variables within the model, including the expert one. Such variation is inevitable since any model only to some extent is similar to the simulated system and the “observer’s” expert position is important. At the entrance of the mathematical model there are figures defined with some accuracy, at the output there are also figures, expertly substantiated and simulated. PEST represents a “semantic model” containing basic “event trees”. At the entrance to this model there are events that “happened”. At the output — their development forecast, if “this” has happened, “this and that” will certainly happen and with some probability “or this, or that”. The forecast presumes the work of an expert who subjects the event to a modeling framework of PEST-analysis. With events development in reality it becomes possible to compare two semantic networks, one of which is referred to “forecasted”, and the other — to “happened” events structure. An expert, and in some simple cases even a computer program, can either attribute a happened event to one of the scenario branches existing in the forecast or to come out with a suggestion on the emergence of a new branch, or, finally, to conclude that the given event is an imitation, that is, has a “non-physical character”. The latter is very important, but needs verification by subsequent events. Thus, the proposed PEST-analysis in the context of “world — country — region” is some semantic “model”, forming “forecasted” semantic trees and networks, allowing to classify operational event-series (“extract meaning”) and to forecast their further development from the strategic perspective point of view. This method seems relevant from the perspective of realization (and automation) of the problem of continuous dynamic strategic management, which is extremely important while the world system is passing ugh the “bifurcation point”.