Calculation of Medium-Term Cycles of Economic Activity Based on Regional Statistics

#3. For Nothing, or an Invisible Threat
Calculation of Medium-Term Cycles of Economic Activity Based on Regional Statistics

The article presents analysis results of medium-term economic cycles, calculated on the basis of statistical data of one of the regions of the Russian Federation. For analysis, the average cycles of Simon Kuznets (construction cycles), the small investment cycles of economic activity of Clement Juglar and short business cycles of Joseph Kitchin are taken. Bringing together the graphs of three cycles shows the convergence at the bottom point of three medium-term economic cycles in the period of 2019–2020. A conclusion is made about the need for investment growth in 2018. Also a graph is given with a large cycle of capital accumulation by Giovanni Arrighi, characterizing the cyclical change in the model of world development in connection with transition to a new dominant resource, as a result of which the country — the world leader — changes. Thus, according to J. Arrighi, the American cycle should be replaced by the Asian one, which is why 2018 is designated as the year of beginning of the active phase of the US struggle to maintain its domination. According to the authors, realization of J. Arrighi’s cycle took place meanwhile the center of the world’s money emission was moving following the center of world commodity production. It is concluded that the considered cyclicity will be the background for pursuing the economic policy in the regions of Russia, but will not determine it.


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