DOI: 10.33917/es-1.187.2023.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

16. Ageev A.I., Glaz’ev S.Yu., Mityaev D.A., Zolotareva O.A., Pereslegin S.B. Postroenie modeli prognoza kursa valyut na dolgosrochnom i kratkosrochnom gorizontakh [Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, no 6 (186), pp. 16–25, available at: DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25.

17. Dubrova T.A. Analiz vremennykh dannykh [Time Data Analysis]. Analiz dannykh. Moscow, Yurait, 2019, pp. 397–459.

18. Boks Dzh, Dzhenkins G. Analiz vremennyh ryadov [Time Series Analysis]. Prognozirovanie i upravlenie. Moscow, Mir, 1974, 406 p.

19. Alzheev A.V., Kochkarov R.A. Sravnitel’nyi analiz prognoznykh modelei ARIMA i LSTM na primere aktsii rossiiskikh kompanii [Comparative Analysis of ARIMA and LSTM Forecasting Models on the Example of Russian Companies’ Stocks]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2020, no 24(1), pp. 14–23,
DOI: 10.26794/2587-5671-2020-24-1-14-23.

20. Mhitaryan S.V., Danchenok L.A. Prognozirovanie prodazh s pomoshch’yu adaptivnyh statisticheskih metodov [Sales Forecasting with the Help of Adaptive Statistical Methods]. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya, 2014, no 9-4, pp. 818–822.

21. Pilyugina A.V., Bojko A.A. Ispol’zovanie modelej ARIMA dlya prognozirovaniya valyutnogo kursa [Using ARIMA Models for Exchange Rate Forecasting]. Prikaspijskij zhurnal: upravlenie i vysokie tekhnologii, 2015, no 4, pp. 249-267.

22. Ruppert D., Matteson D.S. Statistics and Data Analysis for Financial Engineering. Springer, 2015, available at: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-1-4939-2614-5.

23. Garcia F., Guijarro F., Moya I., Oliver J. Estimating returns and conditional volatility: A comparison between the ARMA-GARCH-M models and the backpropagation neural network. International Journal of Complex Systems in Science, 2012, no 1(2), pp. 21–26.

24. Maniatis P. Forecasting the Exchange Rate Between Euro And USD: Probabilistic Approach Versus ARIMA And Exponential Smoothing Techniques. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 2012, no 28(2), pp. 171–192, available at: https://doi.org/10.19030/jabr.v28i2.6840.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25

Forecasting the ruble exchange dynamics appears objectively necessary for shaping both the medium-term financial strategy of industry corporations and the general strategic course for occupying leading positions in sectors of business interest, including through the use of new financial instruments, new markets and, in general, a system of strategic planning of socio-economic development of Russia. However, in today’s realities, according to most experts, with whom we cannot but agree, the task of forecasting seems extremely difficult and appears complicated by the fact that the launched crises are unpredictable and are characterized by a diverse nature (pandemic and geopolitical crises, expansion of trade wars and sanctions). In such conditions, when uncertainty grows excessively, it is important to turn to the accumulated experience: to analyze to what extent the available models can be suitable for prospective assessments in the current environment.

References:

1. Kuranov G.O. Metodicheskie voprosy kratkosrochnoi otsenki i prognoza makroekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Methodological Issues of Short-Term Assessment and Forecast of Macroeconomic Indicators]. Voprosy statistiki, 2018, no 25(2), pp. 3–24.

2. Frenkel’ A.A., Volkova N.N., Surkov A.A., Romanyuk E.I. Sravnitel’nyi analiz modifitsirovannykh metodov Greindzhera — Ramanatkhana i Beitsa — Greindzhera dlya postroeniya ob”edinennogo prognoza dinamiki ekonomicheskikh pokazatelei [Comparative Analysis of Modified Granger-Ramanathan and Bates-Granger Methods for Developing a Combined Forecast of Economic Indicators Dynamics]. Voprosy statistiki, 2019, no 26(8), pp. 14–27.

3. Shirov A.A. Makrostrukturnyi analiz i prognozirovanie v sovremennykh usloviyakh razvitiya ekonomiki [Macrostructural Analysis and Forecasting under Current Conditions of Economic Development]. Problemy prognozirovaniya, 2022, no 5, pp. 43–57.

4. Dmitrieva M.V., Suetin S.N. Modelirovanie dinamiki ravnovesnykh valyutnykh kursov [Simulating the Dynamics of Equilibrium Exchange Rates]. Vestnik KIGIT, 2012, no 12–2(30), pp. 061–064.

5. Linkevich E.F. Mirovaya valyutnaya sistema: poliinstrumental’nyi standart [World Monetary System: Polyinstrumental Standard]. Krasnodar, 2014, pp. 82–91.

6. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Izmenenie strategii operirovaniya dollarom: zapusk SShA novogo kreditno-investitsionnogo tsikla vo vzaimosvyazi s valyutnymi voinami [Changing the Strategy of Dollar Handling: US Launch of New Credit-Investment Cycle in Association with the Currency Wars]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 3(129), pp. 20–35.

7. Fedorova E.A., Lazarev M.P. Vliyanie tseny na neft’ na finansovyi rynok Rossii v krizisnyi period [Impact of Oil Prices on the Financial Market of Russia During the Crisis]. Finansy i kredit, 2014, № 20(596), pp. 14–22.

8. Kuz’min A.Yu. Valyutnye kursy: v poiskakh strategicheskogo ravnovesiya [Exchange Rates: in Search of Strategic Equilibrium]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2018, no 1, pp. 82–91.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-4.184.2022.17-21

The article emphasizes that freezing of Russian gold and foreign exchange reserves was previously accurately predicted by Russian experts. Attention is drawn to the fact that weakening of the ruble was one of the goals of the sanctions impact on the Russian economy that Western countries were bearing in mind. It is obvious that the exact opposite — preventing its depreciation and turning the ruble into a stable strong currency — is an anti-sanction measure. With high dependence of the Russian economy on imports, as well as in the situation when it is necessary to find alternative ways for imports (primarily for investment), which will lead to their higher prices with corresponding consequences, an excessive exchange rate depreciation may adversely affect economic development, especially in a long term. In addition, extremely important is ensuring stability of the exchange rate. It is concluded that stable and non-depreciating ruble will form the basis for consistent development of business and expand the possibilities for using the ruble in foreign trade settlements as well. It is particularly relevant in the context of restrictions on the use of leading currencies in foreign trade.

Источники:

1. Ershov M.V. Sanktsii protiv RF: mekhanizmy neitralizatsii [Sanctions Against the Russian Federation: Neutralization Mechanisms]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2017, no 7, pp. 46–51.

2. Baiden ogovorilsya, zayaviv, chto dollar stoit 200 rublei [Biden Made a Slip of the Tongue Saying That the Dollar is Worth 200 Rubles]. RIA Novosti, 2022, March, 26, available at: https://ria.ru/20220326/bayden-1780271172.html.

3. Sanktsii SShA protiv TsB i Minfina perekroyut dostup k rezervam dlya podderzhki rublya [US Sanctions Against the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance will Block Access to Reserves for Supporting the Ruble]. Interfaks, 2022, February, 28, available at: https://www.interfax.ru/business/825191.

4. Bank Rossii. O chem govoryat trendy [Bank of Russia. What are the Trends Saying?]. BCS Express, 2022, April, 22, available at: https://bcs-express.ru/novosti-i-analitika/bank-rossii-o-chem-govoriat-trendy.

5. SMI: EK zayavila, chto ukaz ob oplate gaza v rublyakh narushaet sanktsii ES [Media: EC Said That the Decree on Gas Payments in Rubles Violates EU Sanctions]. RIA Novosti, 2022, April, 14, available at: https://ria.ru/20220414/gaz-1783434893.html.

6. Russia’s ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year. CBS NEWS, 2022, May, 27, available at: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-rublecurrency-2022/

7. Ershov M.V. Valyutnaya politika kak faktor natsional’noi bezopasnosti [Monetary Policy as National Security Factor]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 4, pp. 20–29.

8. Washington Times. 2015, April, 30.

9. Ershov M.V. Ekonomicheskii suverenitet Rossii v global’noi ekonomike [Russia’s Economic Sovereignty in the Global Economy]. Moscow, Ekonomika, 2005, 280 p.

10. BIS. Quarterly Review. International banking and financial market developments. June 2022.