The authors have studied the possibility of taking into account the human rationality factor in the analysis of global problems of demography and energy. For this purpose, analogues of chemical kinetics and the idea of human communities as an open thermodynamic system were applied. The demography of sapientation was divided into two conventional energy zones — northern and southern, which differ in climatic and geophysical conditions. The sapientation process was formalized by correlating the number of creative and educated people with the amount of external energy they convert into new valuable information. The sapientation kinetics was modeled completing the formalism of the act of a person’s birth with a stage of his education requiring the involvement of at least one teacher from among educated people. The second-order kinetic equation, describing the growth of an equal population of men and women of reproductive age, was transformed into an equation of the third and higher orders. The stationary solution of these equations determines the optimal demography for sustainable noospheric development of the population in accordance with its education index. Real and durable solutions to the demographic and energy problems are proposed.
The article presents a comparative analysis of various forecast options of major demographic indicators dynamics for Russia up to 2030. Data of Rosstat and the UNO forecasts are used. Assumptions underlying forecasts are analyzed and possible dynamics of fertility and mortality indicators are assessed. The article also examines, based on the index method, the contribution of various birth-rate components (fertility intensity, proportion of reproductive age women and the age structure of reproductive contingent) in the overall dynamics of this indicator.