The article represents a short version of scenario-based forecast of development of Ukraine and the Russian-Ukrainian relations, prepared in July 2008. The forecast has not been published previously. Subsequent developments have fully confirmed the anticipated, although at the time of the forecast preparation a lot of things would seem futurological fiction on the tails of probability distributions. Assessments of the state and prospects of the Ukraine development, made in 2008, are of practical interest today.

The article discusses particular features of the geopolitical and geoeconomic situation of the Central Asian countries and Afghanistan. Comparisons of their integrated strength are made applying the strategic matrix model.

  The potential of a civilization cannot be determined by simple addition of the constituent components.

At present only the United States correspond in full to the level of a superpower. Russia is still close to this level, but by such indicators as production of weapons in the whole spectrum of modern systems, the strength of the armed forces and equipment of high-precision weapons, advanced systems of control and communication there is a substantial gap with the U.S.