The article analyzes three periods of the Russian economy: the transformation crisis of 1990–1998, characterized by depth and duration, the period of regenerative economic recovery in 1999–2008, during which a shift into nationalization and monopolization of the economy took place, as well as the period of 2009–2017, called the “lost decade” by the author, the period of deep financial and socio-economic crisis as part of the global world crisis. Possible prospects for development and ways of entrance into high-quality significant socio-economic growth are described.
The purpose of this report is to initiate a wide-ranging discussion (both on open platforms, and in corporate and state-public closed mode), and to help organizations and individuals affected by extrajudicial sanctions and persecutions to work out a strategy and tactics of confrontation, both for their own benefit and for the benefit of the public. The authors give scenarios of financial and economic dynamics in 2018 and identify probable parameters of collapse or “controlled demolition”, analyze the consequences of external influence on Russia and its political and economic elite.
Russian liberals again propose to pull the Russian economy out of stagnation by freezing the money supply as a tool for inflation targeting under the precepts of the Washington Consensus. However, the practice of overcoming the past crisis situations shows us a different lesson. The policy of money pumping through the efforts of reasonable practitioners. E.M. Primakov and V.V. Gerashchenko allowed quickly to overcome the 1998 default, but from the crisis of 2008 Russia was coming out much heavier and with huge economic losses, as the country leaders consistently adhered to liberal dogmas. In Russia, when the money supply grew significantly, inflation contracted, and vice versa, when the growth rate of the money supply fell sharply, inflation grew. The money growth always precedes the growth of GDP, and vice versa, when the money supply shrinks, GDP decreases. And there is a theoretical justification for this, but it does not coinside with the fundamental liberalism dogmas.
Introduction of sanctions, contrary to the statements of Russian politicians, has an impact on the Russian economy, and the impact is quite negative. The crisis in the Russian economy is confirmed by macro-indicators. Despite this, distortion of statistical data allows to demonstrate the illusion of economic growth, although it is seen only in certain sectors of economy. Real incomes of the population have also decreased and continue to fall down. The article proposes a number of strategic measures that will allow to minimize the damage caused by the imposed sanctions and even partially to benefit from them for the Russian economy.
The article analyzes the financial system of Russia, which is a key element in regulating a market economy and the perfection of which determines the pace of economic development. Federal Law No. 172-FZ “On Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation” adopted by the State Duma of the Russian Federation on June 28, 2014 was supposed to help the government, but any planning is possible only if there are a plenipotentiary body, models and regulatory framework. The author offers a number of steps to create a quality regulatory framework for planning.
A strong determinant of modern economic growth from the standpoint of evolutionary economy are new combinations that are considered to be the main generator of technological and institutional changes. However, review and description of economic development on the basis of the principle of “creative destruction” is not satisfactory, since it does not take into account the effects of technologies combination with obtaining a new quality of the economic system in terms of its technological level, affecting the work of specific institutions. Taxonomic approach to describing economic and technological evolution becomes unconvincing, at least insufficient for forming well-founded variants of economic policy of growth and decision-making on managing technological changes. The examples show the influence of the “combinatorial buildup” principle within the observed technological changes, as well as the need to use this principle at the level of both theoretical description of the problem of economic growth and formation of a scientific-technological policy of growth for developed and developing countries.
As a result of further theoretical development of approaches to modeling equilibrium exchange rates developed a generalized dynamic model based on the concepts of macroeconomic equilibrium and the balance of payments with regard to the mechanism of formation relative international competitive advantage. In the framework proposed by the author concept IFEER withdrawn the final formula of the equilibrium exchange rates depending on the fundamental macroeconomic indicators.