DOI: 10.33917/mic-5.106.2022.69-78

The situation with unstable gas supply and energy supply in the EU has become more complicated in connection with the start of the military special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, which has dramatically changed the situation with the energy supply in Europe. The EU predicts to reduce the consumption of Russian gas, while experiencing a shortage of gas.

Germany could use Nord Stream 2 gas, as former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder called for in early August this year after his visit to Moscow. This step would solve Germany’s gas supply problems for a long period. However, the EU and Germany previously refused to use Nord Stream 2 for political reasons.

The situation changed radically when, on September 26, 2022, a sabotage was committed on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, as a result of which sections of gas pipes were torn off near the island of Bornholm (Denmark). As a result, one billion m3 of gas flows out of the pipes. Repair of ruptured pipes can take several months. Europe will remain in autumn and winter without Russian gas.

LNG will not be able to replace Russian gas due to the limited number of points for its reception, as well as the rise in the cost of LNG by 20-30% compared to pipeline Russian gas. In addition, until 2030, EU LNG imports will be limited due to insufficient LNG production capacities in the US and the world, as well as Asian countries’ competition in LNG consumption.

References:

1. Bloomfield H.C., Brayshaw D.J., Troccoli A., Goodess C.M., De Felice M., Dubus L., Bett P.E., Saint-Drenan Y.-M. Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections, Renewable Energy, Volume 164, February 2021. pp. 1062-1075.

2. Frank Ch., Fiedler S., Crewell S. Balancing potential of natural variability and extremes in photovoltaic and wind energy production for European countries, Renewable Energy, Volume 163, January 2021. pp. 674-684.

3. Wang S., Tarroja B., Schell L., Samuelsen S. Determining cost-optimal approaches for managing excess renewable electricity in decarbonized electricity systems, Renewable Energy, Volume 178, November 2021. pp. 1187-1197.

4. Umerenkov E. There is gas, but not for you. URL: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27289/4427398/

5. Tikhonov S. Lost in prohibitions // Rossiyskaya Gazeta. August 11, 2022. P. 5. (In Russ.).

6. Alifirova E. New IEA forecast. URL: https://neftegaz.ru/news/finance/742705-novye-prognozy-mea-sokrashchenie-mirovogo-sprosa-na-gaz-v-2022-g-padenie-rossiyskikh-postavok-v-evro/

7. International Energy Agency (IEA) Quarterly Gas Market Report, July 5, 2022 (Gas Market Report, Q2-2022 including Global Gas Review 2021). URL: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/cfd2441e-cd24-413f-bc9f-eb5ab7d82076/GasMarketReport%2CQ2-2022.pdf

8. Smil V. The use of fossil fuels has increased by 20% since the beginning of the century // Vedomosti. June 02, 2022. (In Russ.).

9. Kuzovkin A.I. Climate, the role of fuel and renewable energy sources. Microeconomics. 2022;3:28-37. (In Russ.).

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.104.2022.28-37

In 2021, the cost of building solar panels has risen in price by 50%, and wind power plants (WPP) by 13%. Many experts write about their further significant growth. This is also noted in The Global Risks Report 2022 at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos in 2022. Thus, the price of polysilicon over the past year has increased by about 3 times, the price of hot-rolled steel has doubled. Steel production is a process with a high share of CO2 emissions. The era of relatively inexpensive renewable energy is over.

In the coming years, the failure of the climate action of the «green transformation», the growth of fuel consumption, energy and economic crises are coming.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-5.100.2021.80-86

The article analyzes the balance between Europe’s desire for carbon neutrality and energy security. The problems of using renewable energy sources (RES) in Europe arising from unstable weather have been identified. It is concluded that the volume of renewable energy production up to 50% and above, as planned by the EU, is not justified due to the unreliability of renewable energy – dependence on the weather. According to the author’s preliminary assessment, in order to ensure the energy stability of the country, RES should produce no more than 30% of electricity.

DOI: 10.33917/mic-3.98.2021.57-64

The analysis of methods for reducing the carbon intensity of pipeline gas and LNG and the development of renewable energy for the long term in Russia and the world is given. Considerable attention is paid to the conflict of interests of the German parties around the «Nord Stream 2» gas pipeline, which is particularly evident before the elections to the German Bundestag, which will be held on September 26, 2021.

The conclusion about the great environmental friendliness and economy of the «Nord Stream 2» is justified.

The analysis of the long-term program for the development of LNG production in the Russian Federation, adopted by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation on March 16, 2021, is given.