Strategization of the Currency Policy and the Ruble’s Ultra-Short-Term Volatility

DOI: 10.33917/es-1.205.2026.38-45

The paradigm shift in international relations has caused significant changes in financial markets. The proposed author’s methodology for economic-mathematical modeling of the ruble exchange rate based on international flows makes it possible to include capital flows in the modeling orbit at a formal-logical level in an explicit form, taking into account their short-term volatility. Conducted during various crisis periods — formally based on results of mathematical modeling — analysis and assessment of short-term effects of the ruble exchange rate dynamics show the presence of preconditions for producing shortterm volatility in the national currency exchange rate under conditions of unfavorable geo-economic environment and a freefloating exchange rate regime. Based on the above, it is concluded that the Bank of Russia needs to make more serious efforts to implement a stabilization exchange rate policy, which is one of the key components of macroeconomic management.

References:

1. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Problemy i perspektivy rossiyskogo finansovogo rynka v usloviyakh strukturnykh izmeneniy mirovoy ekonomiki [Problems and Prospects of the Russian Financial Market in the Context of Structural Changes in the World Economy]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2020, no 24(3), pp. 6–29, available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/problemy-i-perspektivy-rossiyskogo finansovogo-rynka-v-usloviyah-strukturnyh-izmeneniy-mirovoy-ekonomiki

2. Ishkhanov A., Linkevich E.F. Mezhdunarodnye valyutno-kreditnye i finansovye otnosheniya [International Monetary, Credit and Financial Relations]. Krasnodar, 2022, 149 p.

3. Ageev A.I., Loginov E.L. Izmenenie strategii operirovaniya dollarom: zapusk SShA novogo kreditno-investitsionnogo tsikla vo vzaimosvyazi s valyutnymi voynami [Changing the Strategy of Dollar Handling: US Launch of New Credit-Investment Cycle in Association with the Currency Wars]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2015, no 3(129), pp. 20–35.

4. Pechalova M.Yu. Transformatsiya rossiyskoy valyutnoy politiki na fone obostreniya geopoliticheskoy napryazhennosti [Transformation of the Russian Monetary Policy Against the Background of Aggravation of Geopolitical Tensions]. Ekonomika. Nalogi. Pravo, 2023, no 16(1), pp. 48–57.

5. Chernov V.A. Uregulirovanie krizisa mezhdunarodnykh finansov instrumentami monetarnoy politiki [Settlement of the Crisis of International Finance by Monetary Policy Instruments]. Innovatsionnaya ekonomika i obshchestvo, 2023, no 3(41), pp. 48–64.

6. Kulikov N.I., Kulikova M.A., Parkhomenko V.L. Slabyy rubl’ kak odno iz glavnykh prepyatstviy dlya razvitiya i rosta rossiyskoy ekonomiki [Weak Ruble as a Main Obstacle to the Russian Economy’s Development and Growth]. Finansy i kredit, 2024, no 30(5), pp. 988–1016, DOI: https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.30.5.988

7. Eremin V.V. Obespechennost’ denezhnoy massy zolotovalyutnymi rezervami kak operezhayushchiy indikator kursa rublya [Provision of the Money Supply with Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves as a Leading Indicator of the Ruble Exchange Rate]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2023, no 27(3), pp. 43–55.

8. Ageev A.I., Glaz’ev S.Yu., Mityaev D.A., Zolotareva O.A., Pereslegin S.B. Postroenie modeli prognoza kursa valyut na dolgosrochnom i kratkosrochnom gorizontakh [Building a Model for Forecasting the Exchange Rate on the Long-term and Short-term Horizons]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 6(186), pp. 16–25, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/es-6.186.2022.16-25

9. Kuz’min A.Yu. Modelirovanie kratkosrochnoy dinamiki valyutnogo kursa rublya [Modeling Short-term Dynamics of the Ruble Exchange Rate]. Den’gi i kredit, 2015, no 8, pp. 59–65.

10. Kuzmin A. Modeling of Short-Term Exchange Rates Dynamics. Proceedings of 2019 12th International Conference Management of Large-Scale System Development, MLSD 2019, 8911067, Publisher: IEEE, 2019, DOI: 10.1109/MLSD.2019.891106

11. Dodonov V.Yu. Formirovanie vzaimosvyazi mezhdu kursom valyuty i investitsionnoy dokhodnost’yu pensionnykh aktivov v Kazakhstane: prichiny i posledstviya [The Formation of the Relationship between the Exchange Rate and Investment Profitability of Pension Assets in Kazakhstan: Causes and Consequences]. Finansy: teoriya i praktika, 2023, no 27(6), pp. 122–135.

12. Kuz’min A.Yu. Ravnovesie kursa rublya i problemy optimum [Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Ruble and the Problems of Optimum]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2011, no 2, pp. 104–109.

13. Kuzmin A. Mathematical Exchange Rates Modeling: Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Dynamics. Mathematics, 2022, no 10(24), p. 4672, DOI: https:// doi.org/10.3390/math10244672

14. Mundell R.A. Capital Mobility and Stabilization Under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, 1963, no 29(4), November, pp. 475–485.

15. Williamson J. Estimates of FEERs. In Williamson J. (ed.) Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates. Washington: Institute for International Economics, 1994.

16. Dornbusch R. Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Exchange Rates. Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Socialwissenschaften (Berlin), 1982;102(6);573–599.

17. MacDonald R., Taylor M.P. The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: long-run relationship, short-run dynamics and how to beat a Random Walk. Journal of International Money and Finance, 1994;13(3);276–290.

18. MacDonald R. Exchange Rate Economics: Theories and Evidence (Second Edition). Routledge, 2007.

19. Dornbush R. Expectations and Exchange Rates Dynamics. Journal of Political Economy, 1976, no 84 (December), pp. 1161–1176.

20. Glaz’ev S.Yu., Sukharev O.S., Afanas’eva O.N. Monetarnaya politika Rossii: negativnyy nakopitel’nyy effekt v ramkakh neoklassicheskoy modeli i ego preodolenie [Monetary Policy in Russia: Negative Cumulative Effect in the Framework of the Neoclassical Model and its Overcoming]. Mikroekonomika, 2022, no 2, pp. 5–38, DOI: https://doi.org/10.33917/mic-2.103.2022.5-38

21. Bank Rossii [Website], available at: https://cbr.ru/statistics/macro_itm/external_sector/er/

22. Informatsionnaya sistema “TradingView”, po dannym mezhdunarodnoy birzhi ICE [Website], available at: https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/EsnTG03E/