Strategization of the Currency Policy and the Ruble’s Ultra-Short-Term Volatility
DOI: 10.33917/es-1.205.2026.38-45
The paradigm shift in international relations has caused significant changes in financial markets. The proposed author’s methodology for economic-mathematical modeling of the ruble exchange rate based on international flows makes it possible to include capital flows in the modeling orbit at a formal-logical level in an explicit form, taking into account their short-term volatility. Conducted during various crisis periods — formally based on results of mathematical modeling — analysis and assessment of short-term effects of the ruble exchange rate dynamics show the presence of preconditions for producing shortterm volatility in the national currency exchange rate under conditions of unfavorable geo-economic environment and a freefloating exchange rate regime. Based on the above, it is concluded that the Bank of Russia needs to make more serious efforts to implement a stabilization exchange rate policy, which is one of the key components of macroeconomic management.
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