Russian Federation in the Geo-Economic Duel of the 21st Century

DOI: 10.33917/es-6.192.2023.6-15

Today there is virtually no doubt that the 21st century will become a time of struggle for global economic leadership. The USA and China have already entered into this intense competition. Russia is also demonstrating signs of geopolitical subjectivity. However, its economic potential is still significantly lower than that of both the USA and China. Therefore, the present article raises the question of the factors for building up such potential in accordance with current technological challenges. The authors formulate and justify the factors for spreading promising general-purpose technologies in the national economy. They provide an assessment of the presence and scale of each factor’s influence in the modern Russian economy, and also outline ways for strengthening such influence in order to create the most favourable conditions for introduction and scaling of advanced technologies in the industrial sector of the Russian Federation.


1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskie i regulyatornye tsikly v mirokhozyaystvennom razvitii: istoriko-ekonomicheskaya retrospektiva [Technological and Regulatory Cycles in World Economic Development: Historical and Economic Retrospective]. Terra Economicus, 2022, vol 20, no 3, pp. 72–86.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskiy megatsikl i tekhnologicheskie prognozy [Technological Megacycle and Technological Forecasts]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 6(186), pp. 66–75, DOI:

3. Marks K. Kapital. Kritika politicheskoy ekonomii [Capital. Criticism of Political Economy]., vol. 1, available at:

4. Khiks Dzh. Teoriya ekonomicheskoy istorii [Theory of Economic History]. Per. s angl. pod obshch. red. R.M. Nureeva. Moscow, 2003.

5. Veduta E. Krovavoe shestvie zolotogo standarta k Pervoy mirovoy voyne. Chast’ IV [Bloody March of the Gold Standard to the First World War. Part IV]. REGNUM, 2019, 29 aprelya, available at:

6. Nechvolodov A.V. Ot razoreniya k dostatku [From Ruin to Prosperity]. Saint Petersburg, Tipografiya shtaba voysk Gvardii i Peterburgskogo voennogo okruga,1906.

7. Katasonov V. K ocherednomu yubileyu amerikanskogo Tsentrobanka [To the Next Anniversary of the American Central Bank]. Fond strategicheskoy kul’tury, 2023, 4 yanvarya, available at:

8. Neftedollary protiv gazorubley [Petrodollars Versus Gas Rubles]. Kommersant”, 2022, 15 aprelya, available at:

9. Berdyshev A.V., Sopov D.K. Issledovanie dinamiki koeffitsienta monetizatsii ekonomiki Rossii i ego vliyaniya na makroekonomicheskie pokazateli [Study of the

Dynamics of the Monetization Coefficient of the Russian Economy and Its Influence on Macroeconomic Indicators]. Vestnik universiteta, 2022, no 9, pp. 145–152.

Technological Megacycle and Technological Forecasts


Technological forecasts are intended to serve as a guide for business and government authorities. However, post factum they often demonstrate a low instrumental value. The authors propose to use the technological megacycle concept as a methodological “framework” for forming technological forecasts. The article provides empirical evidence of the expediency of such approach in long-term forecasting.


1. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Kontseptsiya otraslevogo rasprostraneniya bazisnykh tekhnologii: novyi tekhnologicheskii megatsikl [Concept of Sectoral Proliferation of Basic Technologies: a New Technological Megacycle]. Ekonomist, 2020, no 1, pp. 25–35.

2. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Tekhnologicheskii megatsikl i promyshlennaya politika [Technological Megacycle and Industrial Policy]. Ekonomist, 2021, no 1, pp. 43–54.

3. Tolkachev S.A., Teplyakov A.Yu. Strategicheskoe planirovanie i promyshlennaya politika na sovremennom etape tsiklicheskogo mirokhozyaistvennogo razvitiya [Strategic Planning and Industrial Policy at the Current Stage of the Cyclic World Economic Development]. Ekonomicheskie strategii, 2022, vol. 24, no 1(181), pp. 40–51, DOI:

4. Knyazev Yu.K. O tekhnologicheskikh tsiklakh v mirovoi ekonomike [On Technological Cycles in the Global Economy]. Obshchestvo i ekonomika, 2022, no 4, pp. 6, 7.

5. Glazkova V.V. Funktsionirovanie i razvitie sistemy teplosnabzheniya v Rossii v usloviyakh smeny energeticheskogo uklada [Functioning and Development of the Heat Supply System in Russia in the Context of Changing Energy Patterns]. E-Management, 2022, vol 5, no 2, pp. 23, 24.

6. Bresnahan T.F., Trajtenberg M. General Purpose Technologies: “Engines of Growth”? Journal of Econometrics, 1995, vol. 65, no 1, pp. 83–108.

7. Glaz’ev S.Yu. Mirokhozyaistvennye uklady v global’nom ekonomicheskom razvitii [World Economic Structures in Global Economic Development]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody, 2016, vol 52, no 2, pp. 3–29.

8. Aivazov A.E., Belikov V.A. Formirovanie integral’nogo mirokhozyaistvennogo uklada — budushchee mirovoi ekonomiki [Formation of an Integral World Economic Order is the Future of the Global Economy]. Ekonomicheskaya nauka sovremennoi Rossii, 2017, no 1(76), pp. 7–21.

9. Albright R.E. What can Past Technology Forecasts Tell us about the Future? Submitted to Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2002, January, p. 5.

10. Kurzweil R. How My Predictions Are Faring, 2010, October.

11. 21st Century Technologies: Promises and Perils of a Dynamic Future. OECD, 1998, p. 46.

12. Schwab K. The Fourth Industrial Revolution. World Economic Forum, 2016, p. 30.

13. Saritas O. An OECD Horizon Scan of Megatrends and Technology Trends in the Context of Future Research Policy. OECD, 2016, p. 8.

14. Technology and Innovation Report 2021. UNCTAD, 2021.